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Daily Notes: Regressed Italian League Stats, For Some Reason

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Regressed Italian League Stats, For Some Reason
2. Video Footage: The Craig Kimbrel of Italy

Regressed Italian League Stats, For Some Reason
A man does not always know what he’s doing. Perhaps, in fact, he never knows what he’s doing.

Regardless of the precise frequency, what’s clear is that the author of this post — for reasons that have yet to be revealed — spent a considerable portion of Tuesday night first (a) copy-and-pasting Italian baseball league stats into an Excel file, and then (b) formatting and applying a simple regression to those same stats, so’s to produce the leaderboards one finds below — which is to say, SCOUT-type leaderboards for that same Italian baseball league

What’s a SCOUT-type leaderboard? A SCOUT leaderboard is essentially an attempt to — utilizing Russell Carleton’s excellent work on the reliability thresholds of various metrics — to produce something meaningful from small sample sizes. (Click here for more on that.)

Below are the final SCOUT leaderboards for the first division of the Italian Baseball League’s 2012 season, which appears to have taken place between late March and July. Ages are as of July 1st, 2012.

By way of reference, below are the teams in the IBL. It’s probably fair to say that each of these Italian cities is built atop a charming medieval hill.

BOL – Unipol Bologna
GOD – De Angelis Godo Knights
GRS – Grosseto Baseball
NET – Danesi Caffe Nettuno
PAR – Cariparma Parma
RIM – Rimini Baseball
RSM – T&A San Marino
NOV – Elettra Energia Novara 2000

SCOUT Leaderboard: Italian League Hitters
Below is the final SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Italian Baseball League. SCOUT+ is calculated using regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates, where 100 is average and above 100 is above average.


Player Team Age Pos PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Danilo Sanchez GOD 31 C 172 3.8% 13.4% 10.5% 160
Osman Marval PAR 25 C 179 3.1% 11.1% 7.8% 150
Maximiliano De Biase RIM 37 1B 159 1.8% 11.1% 5.7% 139
Joseph Mazzuca RSM 31 1B 177 2.8% 13.2% 16.9% 134
Mario Chiarini RIM 31 OF 189 2.7% 11.6% 16.4% 129
Giuseppe Mazzanti NET 29 CIF 165 0.8% 17.3% 14.5% 127
Claudio Liverziani BOL 37 OF 180 2.4% 13.5% 18.9% 127
Juan Carlos Infante BOL 30 SS 196 1.7% 11.2% 11.7% 125
Lorenzo Avagnina RSM 31 OF 200 0.7% 13.0% 8.5% 125
Anderson Machado PAR 31 SS 114 2.0% 14.4% 21.2% 120

SCOUT Leaderboard: Italian League Pitchers
Below is the final SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Italian Baseball League. SCOUT- is calculated using regressed strikeout and walk rates where 100 is average and below 100 is above average.


Player Team Age Arm IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Santo Hernandez NET 28 RHP 42.2 149 48.9% 12.9% 29
Francisco Cruceta RIM 30 RHP 79.2 271 44.0% 11.9% 40
Pete Sikaras GRS 33 RHP 64.0 214 40.7% 10.9% 46
Rodney Rodriguez RSM 30 RHP 75.0 264 37.1% 12.4% 60
Marcos Tabata RIM 26 RHP 36.2 124 33.5% 11.8% 69
Jesus Matos BOL 37 RHP 84.1 269 30.1% 9.2% 71
Chris Cooper RSM 33 LHP 75.1 240 30.0% 9.5% 72
Ricardo Hernandez NET 24 LHP 89.1 295 30.5% 10.4% 73
Juan Figueroa NET 37 RHP 77.0 255 31.0% 11.0% 74
Tiago Da Silva RSM 27 RHP 81.2 262 27.5% 9.4% 79

Notes
• Four of the players listed here are included on Italy’s provisional roster for the World Baseball Classic: pitchers Chris Cooper and Tiago Da Silva, and outfielders Lorenzo Avagnina and Mario Chiarini.

• Catcher and top hitter Danilo Sanchez (of the Dominican Republic) was a member of the Detroit, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis organizations between 2001 and -07. He slashed .284/.361/.524, with 22 home runs in 399 plate appearances, for Detroit’s High-A Lakeland affiliate in the Florida State League — although, as was generally the case throughout his minor-league career, he was old (24) for the level. Baseball Reference has a surprisingly robust biographical entry for Sanchez at BR Bullpen.

• Over the last three seasons, Atlanta right-hander Craig Kimbrel has posted strikeout and walk rates of 45.3% and 9.9%, respectively. This past season, in the Italian League, Nettuno right-hander Santo Hernandez posted basically the same rates. Of note: according to Baseball Reference, Hernandez also pitched — and pitched well — for Camden of the independent Atlantic League this season, posting a 20:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15.0 innings there.

Video Footage: The Craig Kimbrel of Italy
Here’s footage from this past season, it seems, of right-hander Santo Hernandez striking out three Rimini batters: