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Daily Notes: Rousing Information for the Learned Fan

Posted By Carson Cistulli On April 25, 2013 @ 11:13 am In Daily Notes | 10 Comments

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Three Notable International League Peformances
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A International League
3. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Three Notable International League Peformances
The leaderboards for the Triple-A International League are below. Here are brief notes on three players from those leaderboards.

• This season is likely to mark the third consecutive one in which Chris Marrero, in his age-24 season, makes the majority of his plate appearances at Triple-A. Either a return to health or exposure to the level has allowed him to flourish early on. Generally speaking, it’s to the hitter’s advantage to walk and strikeout and homer all at the same rate — a thing which Marrero is more or less doing at the moment. Still, his currently major-league prospects rely on an injury to Adam LaRoche or trade.

• Yankees infield second-base prospect Corban Joseph was featured yesterday — for the second consecutive week — on the author’s middling contribution to prospect analysis, The Fringe Five.

• It is entirely within the realm of possibility that Tony Cingrani, now a member of the Cincinnati rotation, will appear on the International’s League’s SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the duration of the season, so exceptional were his three starts and 14.1 innings. Here’s his line after two major-league starts: 12.0 IP, 35.4% K, 6.3% BB, 44.4% GB, 2.22 SIERA, 58 xFIP-, 0.3 WAR.

SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A International League
Previously considered: Triple-A Pacific Coast League (April 11) / Double-A Eastern League (April 12) / Double-A Southern League (April 16) / Double-A Texas League (April 17) / High-A Carolina League (April 22) / High-A California League (April 23) / High-A Florida State League (April 24).

Below are the present SCOUT hitting and pitching leaderboards for the Triple-A International League.

“What is a SCOUT leaderboard?” a reader might reasonably ask. In brief, it’s this: an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production and prevention in instances where small samples prevail. (A longer explanation is available here.)

Below, as I say, are those leaderboards for the Triple-A International League. (Note: statistics current as of Wednesday night.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Triple-A International League. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all International League hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player Team Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Chris Marrero Nationals (AAA) 24 66 5 6 7 3.2% 9.5% 16.4% 123
Ernesto Mejia Braves (AAA) 27 78 7 9 20 3.7% 10.5% 23.4% 119
Andy LaRoche Blue Jays (AAA) 29 64 4 6 8 2.8% 9.6% 17.4% 118
Zoilo Almonte Yankees (AAA) 24 73 1 15 10 1.8% 13.7% 17.4% 117
Luis Jimenez Blue Jays (AAA) 31 61 3 8 8 2.5% 10.8% 17.8% 117
Corban Joseph Yankees (AAA) 24 76 3 8 9 2.4% 10.1% 16.4% 116
Jim Negrych Blue Jays (AAA) 28 51 2 6 3 2.3% 10.3% 15.9% 116
Mauro Gomez Blue Jays (AAA) 28 49 3 10 11 2.6% 12.4% 21.5% 115
Chris Colabello Twins (AAA) 29 77 6 6 17 3.4% 9.0% 21.6% 115
Josh Phegley White Sox (AAA) 25 65 4 5 10 2.8% 9.1% 18.6% 114

SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Hitters (Age 24 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Triple-A International League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Chris Marrero Nationals (AAA) 24 66 5 6 7 3.2% 9.5% 16.4% 123
Zoilo Almonte Yankees (AAA) 24 73 1 15 10 1.8% 13.7% 17.4% 117
Corban Joseph Yankees (AAA) 24 76 3 8 9 2.4% 10.1% 16.4% 116
Hak-Ju Lee Rays (AAA) 22 57 1 11 9 1.9% 12.5% 19.0% 112
Tyson Gillies Phillies (AAA) 24 55 1 9 8 1.9% 11.6% 18.6% 110
Oswaldo Arcia Twins (AAA) 22 38 3 4 9 2.7% 9.9% 21.7% 108
L.J. Hoes Orioles (AAA) 23 71 1 8 9 1.8% 10.3% 17.1% 108
Anthony Gose Blue Jays (AAA) 22 73 1 8 11 1.8% 10.2% 18.1% 105
Joey Terdoslavich Braves (AAA) 24 85 4 2 14 2.7% 6.6% 18.4% 105
Jose Iglesias Red Sox (AAA) 23 45 2 3 8 2.3% 9.1% 20.0% 104

SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Triple-A International League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all International League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player Team Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Tony Cingrani Reds (AAA) 23 3 3 14.1 48 26 2 31.6% 9.3% 66
Jake Odorizzi Rays (AAA) 23 3 3 17.0 68 25 5 28.1% 9.5% 77
Josh Lueke Rays (AAA) 28 10 0 12.0 47 20 4 27.7% 9.7% 79
Vidal Nuno Yankees (AAA) 25 4 4 23.1 85 26 2 26.4% 8.6% 80
Steve Geltz Rays (AAA) 25 6 0 10.2 44 19 4 27.5% 9.7% 80
Andrew Oliver Pirates (AAA) 25 4 4 21.1 89 29 12 27.9% 10.4% 81
Mark Montgomery Yankees (AAA) 22 5 0 8.0 31 15 1 26.6% 9.4% 81
Chris Carpenter Red Sox (AAA) 27 7 0 9.1 47 19 7 27.1% 10.2% 83
Kirby Yates Rays (AAA) 26 8 0 9.2 41 16 1 25.9% 9.2% 83
Mickey Storey Blue Jays (AAA) 27 5 0 11.2 44 17 4 26.2% 9.7% 84

SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the Triple-A International League who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Tony Cingrani Reds (AAA) 23 3 3 14.1 48 26 2 31.6% 9.3% 66
Jake Odorizzi Rays (AAA) 23 3 3 17.0 68 25 5 28.1% 9.5% 77
Vidal Nuno Yankees (AAA) 25 4 4 23.1 85 26 2 26.4% 8.6% 80
Andrew Oliver Pirates (AAA) 25 4 4 21.1 89 29 12 27.9% 10.4% 81
Alex Torres Rays (AAA) 25 3 3 16.0 60 19 5 25.3% 9.6% 86
Carlos Carrasco Indians (AAA) 26 2 1 10.0 33 12 1 24.4% 9.4% 88
Trevor Bauer Indians (AAA) 22 2 2 13.0 51 16 4 24.5% 9.6% 89
Allen Webster Red Sox (AAA) 23 2 2 10.0 40 12 3 23.4% 9.6% 92
Chris Archer Rays (AAA) 24 4 4 20.0 91 22 8 22.9% 9.6% 94
Hector Rodriguez Braves (AAA) 28 4 4 12.1 59 16 8 23.4% 10.2% 94

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Kansas City at Detroit | 13:05 ET
Justin Verlander Code Red Breathless Velocity Status Update Graph:

VVV

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio

Cincinnati at Washington | 19:05 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Important prospect Anthony Rendon was promoted to the majors to replace the disabled Ryan Zimmerman. Here’s his line so far through four starts: 15 PA, 0 BB, 5 K, 0 HR, 2 H. Meanwhile, here’s his ZiPS rest-of-season projection: 295 PA, .237/.315/.401 (.288 BABIP), .316 wOBA, 93 wRC+, 1.1 WAR. Meanwhile, here’s his rest-of-all-time projection: mostly darkness, probably.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio

Los Angeles AL at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Which is the real Garrett Richards: the one who struggled against Houston (6.1 IP, 5.42 xFIP) in his first start of the season, or the one who more or less dominated Detroit (7.0 IP, 1.31 xFIP) in his second and most reason start? If not the question, that’s at least a question.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle Radio, Perhaps?

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, and presented as they appear at Pinnacle — which appears to be in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

Game Teams Starters IP xFIP- WAR —– Line Win%
13:05 Pittsburgh Pirates James McDonald 19.2 136 0.2 | 2.56 38.3%
ET Philadelphia Phillies Cliff Lee 28.2 91 0.7 | 1.59 61.7%
|
13:10 Los Angeles Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu 24.2 77 0.5 | 1.85 53.1%
ET New York Mets Jeremy Hefner 14.0 147 -0.6 | 2.09 46.9%
|
19:05 Cincinnati Reds Bronson Arroyo 28.0 100 0.6 | 2.15 45.7%
ET Washington Nationals Gio Gonzalez 20.0 96 0.2 | 1.81 54.3%
|
19:10 Chicago Cubs Edwin Jackson 22.1 88 0.5 | 1.85 53.1%
ET Miami Marlins Kevin Slowey 23.2 114 0.3 | 2.09 46.9%
|
21:40 Colorado Rockies Jorge de la Rosa 22.1 95 0.4 | 2.11 46.5%
ET Arizona Diamondbacks Trevor Cahill 25.0 102 0.4 | 1.83 53.5%
|
13:05 Kansas City Royals James Shields 27.0 70 0.8 | 2.65 37.0%
ET Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander 25.1 76 1.0 | 1.56 63.0%
|
18:30 Houston Astros Philip Humber 19.0 122 0.1 | 3.28 29.9%
ET Boston Red Sox Clay Buchholz 30.0 80 0.9 | 1.40 70.1%
|
19:05 Toronto Blue Jays Mark Buehrle 23.0 105 0.1 | 2.30 42.6%
ET New York Yankees Hiroki Kuroda 23.0 84 0.7 | 1.71 57.4%
|
20:10 Tampa Bay Rays Jeremy Hellickson 25.1 95 0.1 | 2.15 45.6%
ET Chicago White Sox Chris Sale 26.0 95 0.2 | 1.80 54.4%
|
20:10 Texas Rangers Nick Tepesch 14.2 73 0.4 | 1.80 54.4%
ET Minnesota Twins Vance Worley 19.0 103 0.5 | 2.15 45.6%
|
22:05 Baltimore Orioles Jason Hammel 24.2 132 0.0 | 2.15 45.6%
ET Oakland Athletics Jarrod Parker 18.0 153 -0.3 | 1.80 54.4%
|
22:10 LAA Angels Garrett Richards 17.2 72 0.2 | 1.73 56.6%
ET Seattle Mariners Brandon Maurer 19.1 132 -0.2 | 2.26 43.4%

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