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Daily Notes: Saturday’s Games, Considered for Your Pleasure

Posted By Carson Cistulli On April 6, 2013 @ 10:00 am In Daily Notes | 21 Comments

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Cleveland at Tampa Bay, 19:10 ET
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Featured Game: Cleveland at Tampa Bay, 19:10 ET
On Who’s Starting This Game
One of the players starting this game is right-hander Trevor Bauer for Cleveland, who (a) was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Indians this offseason in a three-team deal and (b) is known for having idiosyncratic thoughts on pitching mechanics and (c) is known for having idiosyncratic other thoughts, as well.

Regarding Bauer, Why He’s Starting
Bauer is starting because Cleveland left-hander Scott Kazmir has recently been placed on the disabled list with a rib situation.

Regarding the Term “Rib Situation,” What It Means Medically
So far as the term “rib situation” is concerned from a medical point-of-view, what it means is that there’s an effing situation with Scott Kazmir’s ribs.

On Who Else Is Starting This Game
Another starter who’s starting this game is Tampa Bay right-hander Alex Cobb, who posted this line in 23 starts for the Rays last year: 136.1 IP, 18.6% K, 7.0% BB, 58.8% GB, 3.51 SIERA, 86 xFIP-, 2.0 WAR.

Regarding Alex Cobb, What’s Responsible for His Ground-Ball Rate
The two pitches most responsible for Alex Cobb’s rather high ground-ball rate in 2012, according to PITCHf/x, were his curveball (76.1% GB) and changeup (67.6% GB).

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Arizona at Milwaukee | 19:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
This game features a promising pitching matchup, with the rather young Patrick Corbin (120.0 IP, 3.99 ERA, 1.8 WAR projected line, according to Steamer) faceing the young-ish Mike Fiers (135.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.9 WAR). Of note: it appears as though Milwaukee will be without both Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez, the former suffering from neck spasms; the latter, a sprained knee.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

Chicago NL at Atlanta | 19:10 ET
Young Atlanta right-hander Julio Teheran (68.0 IP, 4.40 ERA, 0.5 WAR projected line, per Steamer) makes his season debut for the Braves. He posted the best regressed line of any pitcher this spring — an accomplishment that boded well for the best pitchers of spring training in 2012. He’ll pitch in front of what is probably the best center-field camera angle in the majors.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta Radio.

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, as the author has recently bothered to learn how to convert time zones in Excel. Game presented in order, first, of National League and then American League and, finally, then interleague play.


Game Teams Starters Line Win%
13:10 Washington Nationals Ross Detwiler 2.04 48.0%
ET Cincinnati Reds Mike Leake 1.89 52.0%
13:10 Miami Marlins Ricky Nolasco 2.37 41.4%
ET New York Mets Jon Niese 1.67 58.6%
16:05 St. Louis Cardinals Shelby Miller 2.26 43.4%
ET San Francisco Giants Ryan Vogelsong 1.73 56.6%
19:10 Chicago Cubs Carlos Villanueva 2.43 40.4%
ET Atlanta Braves Julio Teheran 1.65 59.6%
19:10 Arizona Diamondbacks Patrick Corbin 2.18 45.0%
ET Milwaukee Brewers Mike Fiers 1.78 55.0%
20:10 San Diego Padres Tyson Ross 2.31 42.5%
ET Colorado Rockies Jon Garland 1.70 57.5%
21:10 Pittsburgh Pirates A.J. Burnett 3.14 31.2%
ET Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw 1.43 68.8%
13:05 Boston Red Sox John Lackey 2.33 42.1%
ET Toronto Blue Jays J.A. Happ 1.69 57.9%
13:10 Seattle Mariners Felix Hernandez 1.77 55.4%
ET Chicago White Sox Dylan Axelrod 2.20 44.6%
16:05 LAA Angels Tommy Hanson 2.08 47.1%
ET Texas Rangers Matt Harrison 1.86 52.9%
19:05 Minnesota Twins Vance Worley 2.42 40.5%
ET Baltimore Orioles Chris Tillman 1.65 59.5%
19:10 Cleveland Indians Trevor Bauer 2.50 39.2%
ET Tampa Bay Rays Alex Cobb 1.61 60.8%
19:10 Oakland Athletics Bartolo Colon 1.77 55.4%
ET Houston Astros Erik Bedard 2.20 44.6%
19:05 Kansas City Royals Luis Mendoza 2.26 43.4%
ET Philadelphia Phillies John Lannan 1.73 56.6%


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