Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
A Note for the Mothers
Please, if you would, say hello to your mother for FanGraphs.
And for Mark Wahlberg, too, if you have time:
Featured Game: Tampa Bay at Baltimore, 13:35 ET
First of All, Who’s Pitching
Pitching in this game are decorated British general James Shields (47.1 IP, 75 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR) for Tampa Bay and noted Italian avant garde filmmaker Jake Arrieta (44.2 IP, 85 xFIP-, 0.6 WAR) for Baltimore.
Regarding Shields, A Note on His Ground-Ball Rate
Shields’ ground-ball rate (59.6%) is currently more than 13 percentage points above his highest previous single-season mark (46.3% in 2008). Note that ground-ball rate becomes reliable at about 150 batters faced, while Shields has already faced 197 opposing batters, suggesting that Shields’ improvement is authentic at some level.
Regarding Arrieta, A Note on His Success, Generally
In his previous two major-league seasons, Arrieta has posted xFIP-s of 124 and 112 in 100.1 and 119.1 innings, respectively — and, in both of those seasons, he posted walk rates above 10%. This season so far, Arrieta has walked batters at about half that rate (5.6%).
Briefly, On Baltimore’s Record
Baltimore’s current record is 22-12, best in the AL East.
Briefly, On Baltimore’s WAR Record
Baltimore’s WAR record — which is entirely infallible and should never be questioned — is 18-16, which is second best in the AL East after New York’s, which is 20-13.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle.
Toronto at Minnesota | 14:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Left-hander Scott Diamond starts for Minnesota. His season debut was (probably surprisingly) impressive. Line: 7.0 IP, 25 TBF, 6 K, 1 BB, 12 GB on 18 batted-balls (66.7%).
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Minnesota.
Atlanta at St. Louis | 14:15 ET
Lance Lynn (38.2 IP, 80 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR) starts for St. Louis. He continues to be excellent for the Cardinals — as do many of the other Cardinals, who lead the league in batter WAR.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Neither, Really.
Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.3.
Regard, a magnificent and sortable table:
|Kevin Millwood||SEA||2||3||6||7||10||NYA||Andy Pettitte*||13:05|
|Jonathon Niese||NYN||6||2||5||4||5||MIA||Carlos Zambrano||13:10|
|Edwin Jackson||WAS||8||2||6||3||5||CIN||Bronson Arroyo||13:10|
|Justin Masterson||CLE||2||4||3||5||3||BOS||Daniel Bard||13:35|
|Wandy Rodriguez||HOU||4||6||6||2||10||PIT||A.J. Burnett||13:35|
|Jeff Suppan*||SD||1||5||5||3||9||PHI||Cole Hamels||13:35|
|James Shields||TB||7||6||7||5||7||BAL||Jake Arrieta||13:35|
|Jeff Samardzija||CHN||10||3||7||6||5||MIL||Marco Estrada||14:10|
|Danny Duffy||KC||5||8||5||5||5||CHA||Philip Humber||14:10|
|Ricky Romero||TOR||4||6||5||2||7||MIN||Scott Diamond*||14:10|
|Tommy Hanson||ATL||4||8||7||10||9||STL||Lance Lynn||14:15|
|Justin Verlander||DET||8||1||5||4||3||OAK||Jarrod Parker||16:05|
|Alex White*||COL||8||8||6||6||3||LAN||Ted Lilly||16:10|
|Barry Zito||SF||0||4||2||6||3||AZ||Joe Saunders||16:10|
|Jered Weaver||LAA||6||2||5||10||4||TEX||Neftali Feliz||20:05|
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