Daily Notes: SCOUT Leaderboards for Double-A

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards for Double-A
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards for Double-A
A Brief Introduction
Featured in this edition of the Notes are the SCOUT leaderboards for Double-A. Briefly stated, SCOUT represents an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production/prevention in instances where small samples are all that’s available. Stated less briefly, is the explanation available here.

Other recent editions: Triple-A.

SCOUT Leaderboard: Double-A Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for all Double-A hitters. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average. Note that players are compared not to all Double-A hitters, but to those in their respective league, and then combined afterward for the sake of this leaderboard. Note also that xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player Team League Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Allan Dykstra Mets (AA) Eastern 26 256 12 53 59 4.3% 20.7% 23.0% 157
Xavier Scruggs Cardinals (AA) Texas 25 277 19 45 91 6.5% 16.2% 32.9% 149
Christian Marrero Braves (AA) Southern 26 286 5 59 41 1.8% 20.6% 14.3% 145
Anthony Rendon Nationals (AA) Eastern 23 152 6 30 25 3.0% 17.3% 16.4% 144
Kalian Sams Padres (AA) Texas 26 102 10 20 24 4.8% 14.0% 22.3% 143
Josmil Pinto Twins (AA) Eastern 24 304 11 44 54 3.6% 14.5% 17.8% 141
Kyle Jensen Marlins (AA) Southern 25 291 16 33 73 5.4% 11.3% 25.1% 140
Kiel Roling Rockies (AA) Texas 26 266 16 26 60 5.6% 9.8% 22.6% 139
George Springer Astros (AA) Texas 23 323 19 42 96 5.9% 13.0% 29.7% 138
Jim Murphy Phillies (AA) Eastern 27 299 15 24 55 5.0% 8.0% 18.4% 137

SCOUT Leaderboard: Double-A Hitters (Age 23 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters from Double-A who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team League Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Anthony Rendon Nationals (AA) Eastern 23 152 6 30 25 3.0% 17.3% 16.4% 144
George Springer Astros (AA) Texas 23 323 19 42 96 5.9% 13.0% 29.7% 138
Taylor Lindsey Angels (AA) Texas 21 297 11 25 40 3.7% 8.4% 13.5% 130
Christian Vazquez Red Sox (AA) Eastern 22 189 4 27 25 2.1% 14.0% 13.2% 130
Michael Almanzar Red Sox (AA) Eastern 22 298 11 26 46 3.7% 8.7% 15.4% 129
Jose Pirela Yankees (AA) Eastern 23 285 6 36 34 2.1% 12.6% 11.9% 129
Cesar Puello Mets (AA) Eastern 22 237 14 14 48 5.1% 5.9% 20.3% 128
Kyle Parker Rockies (AA) Texas 23 261 12 19 44 4.3% 7.3% 16.9% 127
Andrew Susac Giants (AA) Eastern 23 245 9 34 54 3.4% 13.9% 22.0% 127
Jarek Cunningham Pirates (AA) Eastern 23 271 14 21 60 4.9% 7.7% 22.1% 127

SCOUT Leaderboard: Double-A Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for Double-A. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than average. Note that players are compared not to all Double-A hitters, but to those in their respective league, and then combined afterward for the sake of this leaderboard. Note also that xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player Team League Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Jack Leathersich Mets (AA) Eastern 22 24 0 29.1 124 55 16 40.2% 10.2% 46
Ian Thomas Braves (AA) Southern 26 27 1 40.0 162 59 17 36.4% 9.5% 48
Yimi Garcia Dodgers (AA) Southern 22 27 0 36.0 135 47 6 33.3% 8.0% 53
Danny Salazar Indians (AA) Eastern 23 7 7 33.2 133 51 10 36.3% 9.0% 53
Kevin Quackenbush Padres (AA) Texas 24 29 0 31.0 121 46 10 34.5% 8.2% 55
Joel Carreno Blue Jays (AA) Eastern 26 22 0 27.1 103 44 8 35.8% 9.1% 55
Zach Rosscup Cubs (AA) Southern 25 23 0 28.2 115 44 12 34.0% 9.4% 56
Juan Jaime Braves (AA) Southern 25 15 0 22.0 94 39 13 33.4% 9.9% 59
Kevin Siegrist Cardinals (AA) Texas 23 13 0 20.0 74 35 7 33.4% 8.4% 59
Kevin Vance White Sox (AA) Southern 22 20 0 37.0 155 50 14 32.3% 9.1% 60

SCOUT Leaderboard: Double-A Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in Double-A who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team League Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Danny Salazar Indians (AA) Eastern 23 7 7 33.2 133 51 10 36.3% 9.0% 53
Yordano Ventura Royals (AA) Texas 22 11 11 57.2 230 74 20 32.2% 8.4% 63
Jarrett Grube Angels (AA) Texas 31 7 7 40.1 165 49 10 29.7% 7.6% 68
Burch Smith Padres (AA) Texas 23 6 6 31.1 118 37 6 28.9% 7.5% 71
Jose Ramirez Yankees (AA) Eastern 23 9 8 42.1 165 50 15 30.3% 9.3% 72
Rafael Montero Mets (AA) Eastern 22 11 11 66.2 261 72 10 27.6% 6.8% 72
Taijuan Walker Mariners (AA) Southern 20 14 14 84.0 339 96 30 28.3% 8.9% 73
Neil Ramirez Rangers (AA) Texas 24 15 15 81.0 317 97 36 30.6% 10.0% 73
Brandon Workman Red Sox (AA) Eastern 24 11 10 65.2 259 74 17 28.6% 8.1% 73
Justin Fitzgerald Giants (AA) Eastern 27 6 6 33.0 140 41 8 28.7% 8.5% 74

Briefest Notes
• Originally a first-round pick by San Diego in the 2008 draft out of Wake Forest, first base-type Allan Dykstra has now amassed over 2000 minor-league plate appearances, none of them above Double-A. Traded by the Padres in 2011 for right-hander Eddie Kunz, he’s played the last two-plus seasons in the Mets org.

• Nearly as productive at Double-A this season — and also the same age — as talented Washington infielder Anthony Rendon is Houston center-field prospect George Springer. Springer’s methods are different than Rendon’s, however: where the latter benefits from controlling the strike zone, the former’s offensive success has been largely dependent on home runs. Of note: Springer was promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma City over the weekend, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart.

• Angels infield prospect Taylor Lindsey is the only player younger than 22 to appear on the Double-A SCOUT batting leaderboard. Just off the leaderboard here, we find a pair of 20-year-olds, as well: celebrated Boston infielder Xander Bogaerts (recently promoted to Triple-A) and less celebrated Cubs second-base prospect Ronald Torreyes, both having recorded a 118 SCOUT+.

• Listed at less than six-feet tall, Mets left-hander Jack Leathersich was taken in the fifth round of the 2011 draft out of baseball house of power UMass-Lowell. Prospect analyst Marc Hulet notes that Leathersich possesses an above-average curveball. He’s recorded a 10:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 5.1 innings at Triple-A Las Vegas following a mid-June promotion.

• As noted yesterday, right-handed Cleveland prospect Danny Salazar has distinguished himself as a leader (per SCOUT, at least) among Triple-A pitchers through just seven starts. Here we find that Salazar had similar success at Double-A earlier this season, recording a 51:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 33.2 innings for Double-A Akron before his promotion.

Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Los Angeles AL at Detroit | 19:08 ET
C.J. Wilson (94.2 IP, 98 xFIP-, 1.3 WAR) faces Rick Porcello (76.0 IP, 74 xFIP-, 1.3 WAR). The top three pitchers by park-adjusted xFIP (relative to league average) over the last month:

Rank Name Team IP xFIP-
1 Cliff Lee Phillies 45.2 54
2 Rick Porcello Tigers 33.0 57
3 Matt Harvey Mets 40.0 58

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.1.

Note: the following table is entirely sortable.


Away SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Trevor Cahill AZ 5 3 5 2 6 WAS Gio Gonzalez 19:05
Justin Masterson CLE 8 7 7 9 4 BAL Chris Tillman 19:05
Yu Darvish TEX 10 3 6 4 4 NYA Hiroki Kuroda 19:05
C.J. Wilson LAA 4 7 7 7 9 DET Rick Porcello 19:08
Juan Nicasio COL 4 9 5 8 4 BOS Ryan Dempster 19:10
Kevin Correia MIN 3 3 5 0 10 MIA Jose Fernandez 19:10
Mark Buehrle TOR 4 6 5 10 3 TB Matt Moore 19:10
Kris Medlen ATL 5 7 6 5 7 KC Ervin Santana 20:10
Edwin Jackson CHN 5 5 5 4 5 MIL Kyle Lohse 20:10
Zack Wheeler* NYN 10 5 8 1 10 CHA Chris Sale 20:10
Jake Westbrook STL 1 3 2 3 1 HOU Lucas Harrell 20:10
Bronson Arroyo CIN 3 4 4 6 5 OAK Tommy Milone 22:05
Kyle Kendrick PHI 3 1 3 8 1 SD Jason Marquis 22:10
Jeff Locke PIT 3 6 3 4 2 SEA Joe Saunders 22:10
Undecided SF 6 6 6 3 8 LAN Stephen Fife 22:10

To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.



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Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Caveman Jones
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Caveman Jones
3 years 1 month ago

Not to nitpick the very handsome author, but both Bogaerts and Torreyes are still 20 years old.

Das Otter
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Das Otter
3 years 1 month ago

Not to nitpick, but that certainly sounds like you are nitpicking.

Caveman Jones
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Caveman Jones
3 years 1 month ago

Guess I should have said “Hate to nitpick”

Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
3 years 1 month ago

There’s a Christopher Marrero and a Christian Marrero?

P.S. At the request of Brazen Reader, I shall endeavour to list the Top Trade Deadline Targets by coolness of name, as soon as I get off the telephone.

James
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James
3 years 1 month ago

Poor Jake Westbrook. Being 5 points less watchable than “Undecided” must be a lonely feeling.

Evan
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Evan
3 years 1 month ago

Last time I watched him pitch I thought the 1 was a bit generous.

Jon J.
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Jon J.
3 years 1 month ago

Lucas Harrell and Jason Marquis agree. I guess mystery is better certainty. Now I assume 6 is Replacement-level NERD, since “Undecided” epitomizes Replacement-level, or is Carson assuming it’s Kickman but just left “Undecided” in the spot?

Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
3 years 1 month ago

Trade Target Leaderboard: Cool Names Edition
7. Aramis Nin Ramirez
6. Luis Adan Valbuena
5. Alejandro Alberto De Aza Ceda
4. James Calvin “Jimmy” Rollins
3. Darwin James Kunane Barney
2. Norichika Aoki
1. Giancarlo Cruz-Michael Stanton

Special Citation: Name That Would Sound a Lot Like a Sensual Diarist if It Weren’t for That Bothersome Surname
Aramis Nin

The Surging Danube
Guest
3 years 1 month ago

Thank you. And I had exactly the same tingle when I saw Aramis Nin.

I cannot believe that Darwin has evolved into a decent NLB hitter. Calvin is predestined to remain a Philly.

IZZY2112
Member
IZZY2112
3 years 1 month ago

I can’t wait to see Leathersich in the majors, I’m still somewhat confused as to how he has such crazy strikeout totals.

Drakos
Member
Drakos
3 years 1 month ago

Interestingly all three Padres on the lists are now at AAA. And of course Burch Smith made a quick detour to the majors on his way to AAA.

Do the numbers for Kalian Sams include his AA time with the Mariners or just the Padres? The numbers he put up with a .217 BABIP are just ridiculous. I guess hitting a HR every 10 PAs helps there.

BurleighGrimes
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BurleighGrimes
3 years 1 month ago

Wheeler vs. Sale. Nice!

The Surging Danube
Guest
3 years 1 month ago

Your Briefest Note fails to mention that Allan Dykstra’s dad was released from jail 3 days ago. Which is excellent reporting because Allan’s dad is not Lenny Nails, there is no relation. Bu now there is reason to offer up some great Lenny Dykstra quotes:

“Have I got a 12-inch c—, or what? Of course, it is all in place. It might not look like it, but everything I do is part of a plan.”

“It’s about living the dream, bro”

“I’m gonna get them with my cashmere, bro. Gotta go try and make some money.”

BenRevereDoesSteroids
Member
BenRevereDoesSteroids
3 years 1 month ago

Wheeler vs Sale could potentially be awesome if those two guys didn’t play for the White Sox and Mets.

Jon Heyman
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Jon Heyman
3 years 1 month ago

I like NERD, but someone please explain to me how Ryan Dempster is higher than Matt Moore.

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