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Daily Notes: SCOUT Leaderboards for High-A

Posted By Carson Cistulli On June 26, 2013 @ 12:24 pm In Daily Notes | 7 Comments

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards for High-A
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards for High-A
A Brief Introduction
Featured in this edition of the Notes are the SCOUT leaderboards for High-A. Briefly stated, SCOUT represents an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production/prevention in instances where small samples are all that’s available. Stated less briefly, is the explanation available here.

Other recent editions: Triple-A / Double-A.

SCOUT Leaderboard: High-A Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for all High-A hitters. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average. Note that players are compared not to all High-A hitters, but to those in their respective league, and then combined afterward for the sake of this leaderboard. Note also that xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player Team League Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Max Muncy Athletics (A+) Cal 22 347 19 53 50 5.5% 15.3% 14.4% 171
Robert Kral Padres (A+) Cal 24 247 10 46 33 3.8% 18.6% 13.4% 162
Maikel Franco Phillies (A+) FSL 20 288 16 20 39 5.4% 6.9% 13.5% 153
Miguel Sano Twins (A+) FSL 20 243 16 29 61 5.6% 11.9% 25.1% 148
Robert Hefflinger Braves (A+) Carolina 23 294 20 21 67 6.7% 7.1% 22.8% 147
Dan Paolini Mariners (A+) Cal 23 298 10 41 36 3.3% 13.8% 12.1% 145
Nick Delmonico Orioles (A+) Carolina 20 183 12 27 41 4.7% 14.3% 22.4% 145
Dustin Lawley Mets (A+) FSL 24 301 15 21 51 5.0% 7.0% 16.9% 141
M.P. Cokinos Astros (A+) Cal 23 203 6 22 14 2.8% 10.8% 6.9% 140
Preston Tucker Astros (A+) Cal 22 328 14 29 44 4.3% 8.8% 13.4% 139

SCOUT Leaderboard: High-A Hitters (Age 22 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters from High-A who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team League Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Max Muncy Athletics (A+) Cal 22 347 19 53 50 5.5% 15.3% 14.4% 171
Maikel Franco Phillies (A+) FSL 20 288 16 20 39 5.4% 6.9% 13.5% 153
Miguel Sano Twins (A+) FSL 20 243 16 29 61 5.6% 11.9% 25.1% 148
Nick Delmonico Orioles (A+) Carolina 20 183 12 27 41 4.7% 14.3% 22.4% 145
Preston Tucker Astros (A+) Cal 22 328 14 29 44 4.3% 8.8% 13.4% 139
Garin Cecchini Red Sox (A+) Carolina 22 262 5 43 34 1.9% 16.4% 13.0% 137
Kennys Vargas Twins (A+) FSL 22 294 13 29 59 4.4% 9.9% 20.1% 136
Zachary Borenstein Angels (A+) Cal 22 259 16 16 53 5.7% 6.2% 20.5% 134
Nolan Fontana Astros (A+) Cal 22 228 5 43 44 2.2% 18.9% 19.3% 133
Stephen Piscotty Cardinals (A+) FSL 22 264 9 18 27 3.2% 6.8% 10.2% 133

SCOUT Leaderboard: High-A Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for High-A. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than average. Note that players are compared not to all High-A pitchers, but to those in their respective league, and then combined afterward for the sake of this leaderboard. Note also that xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player Team League Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Bryce Bandilla Giants (A+) Cal 23 32 0 39.0 158 67 20 42.4% 9.9% 48
Tony Davis Blue Jays (A+) FSL 25 26 0 31.1 132 48 11 34.3% 8.1% 53
Travis Ballew Astros (A+) Cal 22 24 0 25.2 109 46 7 36.5% 8.3% 59
R.J. Alvarez Angels (A+) Cal 22 21 2 31.1 131 51 16 36.7% 9.6% 62
James Hoyt Braves (A+) Carolina 26 17 3 49.2 213 72 25 33.8% 10.3% 63
Wilson Rivera Braves (A+) Carolina 23 23 0 35.2 150 52 24 34.7% 11.2% 63
Zachary Jones Twins (A+) FSL 22 21 0 27.1 105 39 16 31.7% 9.4% 65
Spencer Patton Royals (A+) Carolina 25 17 2 45.1 174 56 16 32.2% 9.3% 65
Nick Wittgren Marlins (A+) FSL 22 27 0 35.0 135 41 6 29.2% 7.2% 66
Randy Fontanez Mets (A+) FSL 24 23 0 32.2 151 44 10 29.1% 7.7% 68

SCOUT Leaderboard: High-A Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in High-A who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team League Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Archie Bradley Diamondbacks (A+) Cal 20 5 5 28.2 115 43 10 33.6% 8.8% 68
Austin Bibens-Dirkx Blue Jays (A+) FSL 28 8 6 47.1 193 55 13 28.5% 7.6% 69
Matthew Bowman Mets (A+) FSL 22 8 8 50.0 196 54 9 27.6% 6.8% 70
Nicholas Kingham Pirates (A+) FSL 21 13 13 70.0 283 75 14 26.5% 6.5% 72
Danny Winkler Rockies (A+) Cal 23 15 15 90.2 346 106 24 30.6% 7.6% 73
Henry Owens Red Sox (A+) Carolina 20 13 13 65.1 267 80 28 30.0% 9.9% 73
Edwin Escobar Giants (A+) Cal 21 13 11 56.2 241 73 14 30.3% 7.5% 73
A.J. Cole Nationals (A+) Carolina 21 14 14 77.1 324 87 18 26.9% 7.1% 74
Michael O’Brien Yankees (A+) FSL 23 6 6 26.2 121 34 8 26.3% 7.8% 77
Angel Cuan Mets (A+) FSL 24 10 7 48.1 198 49 6 24.7% 6.3% 77

Briefest Notes
• What sets Oakland first-base prospect Max Muncy apart from other Cal League players with impressive offensive numbers is his command of the strike zone. After recording a walk-to-strikeout ratio above 1.00 last season in the Class-A Midwest League, Muncy is doing the same thing this one for Stockton. He appears to have done the same thing in both his sophomore and junior year at Baylor, as well, before Oakland selected him the fifth round during last June’s draft.

• Philadelphia’s Maikel Franco has received some attention of late for his exploits with High-A Clearwater. Also of note — and perhaps with similar limitations defensively at third base as both Franco and Minnesota’s Miguel Sano — is another advanced 20-year-old, Baltimore’s Nick Delmonico, who’s recorded 12 home runs and a 29:42 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 187 plate appearances. Of note: like Franco during his time at Clearwater, Delmonico might be the beneficiary of a park that inflate home-run totals.

• Mets pitching prospect Matthew Bowman has made consecutive appearances in the author’s Fringe Five column in part because of his (i.e. Bowman’s) excellent ratios, but also because he’s an undersized right-hander with mechanics not unlike Tim Lincecum‘s who also attended Princeton.

Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Pittsburgh at Seattle | 15:40 ET
Jeanmar Gomez (44.0 IP, 115 xFIP-, -0.2 WAR) faces Felix Hernandez (109.2 IP, 64 xFIP-, 3.1). Nick Franklin Status Update: 107 PA, 10.3% BB, 15.0% K, .281/.355/.479 (.303 BABIP), 137 wRC+, 0.8 WAR. Mike Zunino Status Update: 34 PA, 5.9% BB, 26.5% K, .188/.235/.313 (.227 BABIP), 54 wRC+, -0.1 WAR.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle Radio, Maybe.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.7.

Note: the following table is entirely sortable.


Away SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
R.A. Dickey TOR 8 6 8 10 7 TB R. Hernandez 12:10
Scott Diamond MIN 3 2 3 0 5 MIA Tom Koehler 12:40
Homer Bailey CIN 10 4 7 6 5 OAK A.J. Griffin 15:35
Jeanmar Gomez PIT 3 7 6 4 10 SEA Felix Hernandez 15:40
Roy Oswalt* COL 9 9 8 8 6 BOS John Lackey 16:05
Wade Miley AZ 6 3 7 2 10 WAS J. Zimmermann 19:05
Scott Kazmir CLE 6 7 5 9 3 BAL Jason Hammel 19:05
Justin Grimm TEX 5 3 5 4 6 NYA Andy Pettitte 19:05
Tommy Hanson LAA 1 7 5 7 7 DET Jose Alvarez* 19:08
Mike Minor ATL 8 7 5 5 2 KC Luis Mendoza 20:10
Scott Feldman CHN 3 5 4 4 5 MIL Yovani Gallardo 20:10
Shaun Marcum NYN 5 6 5 1 6 CHA John Danks 20:10
Lance Lynn STL 6 3 3 3 0 HOU Erik Bedard 20:10
Cole Hamels PHI 8 1 7 8 8 SD Robbie Erlin* 22:10
Tim Lincecum SF 6 6 7 2 9 LAN Clay. Kershaw 22:10

To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.


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