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Daily Notes: SCOUT Leaderboards for the Intl. League, Already

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards for the International League, Already
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

SCOUT Leaderboards for the International League, Already
On Monday, in the Notes, we considered the earliest statistical returns from the majors, according to SCOUT. What follows is a very similar thing to that, except for the Triple-A International League.

“What actually is SCOUT?” a reasonable person might ask — to which question the author has provided a (hopefully) reasonable answer here. In brief, however, it’s this: an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production/prevention in instances where small samples are all that’s available.

Below are those same leaderboards, as I say, for the Triple-A International League.

SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Triple-A International League. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all International League hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.


Player Team Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Mike Hessman Reds (AAA) 35 25 5 4 6 3.9% 10.9% 22.5% 119
Andy LaRoche Blue Jays (AAA) 29 25 3 2 2 3.2% 9.9% 19.9% 114
Chris Colabello Twins (AAA) 29 26 3 3 4 3.2% 10.4% 21.1% 112
Brandon Snyder Red Sox (AAA) 26 27 2 3 2 2.8% 10.3% 19.6% 111
Zach Walters Nationals (AAA) 23 27 4 2 7 3.5% 9.8% 22.9% 111
Josh Phegley White Sox (AAA) 25 22 2 3 2 2.9% 10.6% 20.3% 111
Luis Jimenez Blue Jays (AAA) 31 26 2 3 3 2.9% 10.4% 20.4% 110
Mark Hamilton Red Sox (AAA) 28 21 1 6 4 2.6% 12.1% 21.8% 109
Brandon Guyer Rays (AAA) 27 23 3 2 6 3.2% 10.0% 22.8% 108
Mike Costanzo Nationals (AAA) 29 19 2 3 4 2.9% 10.7% 22.1% 108

SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Hitters (Age 24 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Triple-A International League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.


Player Team Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Zach Walters Nationals (AAA) 23 27 4 2 7 3.5% 9.8% 22.9% 111
Oswaldo Arcia Twins (AAA) 22 24 2 3 5 2.9% 10.5% 22.0% 107
Carlos Sanchez White Sox (AAA) 21 24 0 5 2 2.2% 11.5% 20.0% 106
Chris Marrero Nationals (AAA) 24 19 1 3 3 2.6% 10.7% 21.4% 105
Corban Joseph Yankees (AAA) 24 28 0 5 3 2.2% 11.3% 20.1% 105
Zoilo Almonte Yankees (AAA) 24 28 0 7 7 2.2% 12.3% 22.8% 103
Cesar Hernandez Phillies (AAA) 23 28 0 2 2 2.2% 9.8% 19.4% 102
Hak-Ju Lee Rays (AAA) 22 20 0 4 4 2.2% 11.2% 22.0% 102
L.J. Hoes Orioles (AAA) 23 22 0 3 3 2.2% 10.6% 21.0% 102
Anthony Gose Blue Jays (AAA) 22 28 0 2 3 2.2% 9.8% 20.1% 100

SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Triple-A International League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all International League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.


Player Team Age IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Tony Cingrani Reds (AAA) 23 12.1 41 21 2 30.2% 9.8% 76
Chris Carpenter Red Sox (AAA) 27 4.1 21 10 2 25.8% 10.2% 90
Mark Montgomery Yankees (AAA) 22 5.0 19 9 0 25.4% 9.8% 90
Vin Mazzaro Pirates (AAA) 26 5.0 17 8 0 25.1% 9.9% 91
Pedro Beato Red Sox (AAA) 26 4.2 17 8 1 25.1% 10.1% 92
Deunte Heath White Sox (AAA) 27 3.0 11 6 0 24.6% 10.0% 93
Vidal Nuno Yankees (AAA) 25 11.2 42 12 0 24.0% 9.4% 93
Caleb Thielbar Twins (AAA) 26 5.1 22 8 1 24.3% 10.0% 93
Sam Demel Yankees (AAA) 27 3.2 16 7 2 24.5% 10.3% 94
Duke Welker Pirates (AAA) 27 4.1 14 6 0 24.2% 9.9% 94

SCOUT Leaderboard: International League Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the Triple-A International League who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.


Player Team Age IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Tony Cingrani Reds (AAA) 23 12.1 41 21 2 30.2% 9.8% 76
Vidal Nuno Yankees (AAA) 25 11.2 42 12 0 24.0% 9.4% 93
Matt Zaleski White Sox (AAA) 31 6.0 23 8 1 24.2% 10.0% 94
Josh Stinson Orioles (AAA) 25 5.0 20 7 1 23.9% 10.0% 95
Tanner Roark Nationals (AAA) 26 6.0 20 7 2 23.9% 10.2% 95
Jake Odorizzi Rays (AAA) 23 6.2 26 8 2 23.7% 10.1% 95
Jair Jurrjens Orioles (AAA) 27 6.0 21 7 2 23.8% 10.2% 96
Zach Clark Orioles (AAA) 29 4.1 24 7 0 23.4% 9.8% 96
Fernando Nieve Indians (AAA) 30 6.0 22 7 2 23.7% 10.2% 96
Zach Stewart White Sox (AAA) 26 4.0 19 6 1 23.4% 10.0% 96

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Toronto at Detroit | 13:05 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Mark Buehrle (5.1 IP, 5.45 xFIP in his first start) faces Rick Porcello (5.1 IP, 5.63 xFIP). The latter posted a 21:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24.0 spring innings, but failed to approximate anything like that in his first start of the season at Minnesota, recording a 2:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio while facing 24 batters.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

Tampa Bay at Texas | 14:05 ET
Always, with regard to Rays left-hander Matt Moore, one is wondering “When will the Matt Moore of reality begin to approximate the one in my dreams?” And while the answer to that question is “Never” — because, unlike in your dreams, Matt Moore will never make tenderest love to a young Elizabeth Taylor in the first and only pornographic film directed by Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels — Matt Moore was excellent in his season debut against Cleveland (box), recording a 2.48 single-game xFIP in 6.0 innings. He’s opposed by other left-hander Derek Holland (7.0 IP, 3.66 xFIP).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

Pawtucket vs. Lehigh Valley | 19:05 ET
These are the Triple-A affiliates for Boston and Philadelphia, respectively. The game features right-hander Allen Webster for Pawtucket (ranked fourth among all Red Sox prospects by Marc Hulet) and Jonathan Pettibone (ranked fourth by Hulet among Phillies prospects). Also likely to be seen: Bryce Brentz (Red Sox), Cody Asche (Phillies), and Darin Ruf (also Phillies).

Broadcast Information: MiLB.TV.

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will be available at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, as the author has recently bothered to learn how to convert time zones in Excel. Game presented in order, first, of National League and then American League and, finally, then interleague play.

***Not included below (because no odds were available for it on Tuesday night) is this tonight’s New York AL-Cleveland game — which game begins at 19:05 ET and features Ivan Nova versus an undecided pitcher for the Indians.***


Game Teams Starters Line Win%
13:45 Cincinnati Reds Homer Bailey 1.91 51.4%
ET St. Louis Cardinals Jake Westbrook 2.02 48.6%
15:40 Pittsburgh Pirates Jonathan Sanchez 2.50 39.2%
ET Arizona Diamondbacks Wade Miley 1.61 60.8%
15:45 Colorado Rockies Jeff Francis 2.24 43.8%
ET San Francisco Giants Barry Zito 1.75 56.2%
19:05 New York Mets Jeremy Hefner 2.09 46.9%
ET Philadelphia Phillies Kyle Kendrick 1.85 53.1%
19:10 Atlanta Braves Mike Minor 1.63 60.3%
ET Miami Marlins Alex Sanabia 2.47 39.7%
20:05 Milwaukee Brewers Kyle Lohse 1.86 52.9%
ET Chicago Cubs Scott Feldman 2.08 47.1%
22:10 Los Angeles Dodgers Chad Billingsley 1.87 52.4%
ET San Diego Padres Eric Stults 2.06 47.6%
13:05 Toronto Blue Jays Mark Buehrle 2.11 46.5%
ET Detroit Tigers Rick Porcello 1.83 53.5%
14:05 Tampa Bay Rays Matt Moore 2.23 44.0%
ET Texas Rangers Derek Holland 1.75 56.0%
19:10 Baltimore Orioles Jake Arrieta 2.26 43.4%
ET Boston Red Sox Ryan Dempster 1.73 56.6%
20:10 Minnesota Twins Liam Hendriks 2.30 42.6%
ET Kansas City Royals Wade Davis 1.71 57.4%
22:05 Oakland Athletics Tommy Milone 2.18 45.0%
ET LAA Angels Joe Blanton 1.78 55.0%
22:10 Houston Astros Brad Peacock 2.47 39.7%
ET Seattle Mariners Blake Beavan 1.63 60.3%
19:05 Chicago White Sox Gavin Floyd 2.50 39.2%
ET Washington Nationals Jordan Zimmermann 1.61 60.8%