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Daily Notes: Sexy Regressed August Leaderboards

Posted By Carson Cistulli On August 24, 2012 @ 10:00 am In Daily Notes | 4 Comments

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Sexy Regressed August Leaderboards
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Sexy Regressed August Leaderboards
Regarding a “Sexy Regressed Leaderboard,” What That Is
In the not very distant past, the author submitted — as a prelude to a series of posts on college summer leagues — he submitted an entirely infallible and also sexy method by which to present responsibly both batting and pitching production regardless of sample size.

Regarding the Method in Question, A Short Description of It
Essentially, what the author did was to (a) take the strikeout, walk, and (for hitters) home-run rates of every player in the relevant sample, (b) regress them accordingly, and (c) produce a number that looks either like wRC+ (for hitters) or ERA- (for pitchers).

Regarding That Method, A Slightly More Thorough Description of It
For the purposes of these sexy leaderboards, offensive production (represented as the totally made-up SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average) is essentially a version of wRC+, except using the three main defense-independent inputs (home-run, walk, and strikeout rate), all regressed duly*. Pitching performance (represented by the also entirely made-up SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention) is calculated using a version of kwERA, with regressed strikeout and walk rates as the relevant inputs.

Regarding That Method, The Most Thorough Description of It
Click this hyperlinked text to read the most thorough description of the method discussed here.

Sexy and Regressed Batting Leaderboard for August
Here are the top hitters from August so far, as determined by the methodology presented above:


Player Team PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Prince Fielder Tigers 82 3.9% 11.9% 13.4% 140
Miguel Cabrera Tigers 85 3.9% 10.3% 15.0% 132
Buster Posey Giants 82 3.9% 12.4% 18.7% 131
John Jaso Mariners 59 3.1% 12.3% 16.4% 126
Edwin Encarnacion Blue Jays 84 3.3% 9.8% 13.8% 125
Albert Pujols Angels 83 4.6% 5.9% 15.9% 125
Aaron Hill Diamondbacks 81 3.6% 7.4% 12.9% 124
Chase Headley Padres 84 4.9% 6.8% 19.8% 124
Todd Frazier Reds 87 3.9% 8.7% 16.8% 124
Ryan Ludwick Reds 80 4.3% 7.5% 17.7% 123

Sexy and Regressed Pitching Leaderboard for August
Here are the top pitchers from August so far — also as determined by the methodology presented above:


Player Team IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Max Scherzer Tigers 25.0 104 29.2% 7.3% 70
Chris Sale White Sox 29.0 115 28.5% 6.8% 71
R.A. Dickey Mets 29.0 112 27.6% 7.2% 75
Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 29.1 109 26.6% 6.5% 75
Cliff Lee Phillies 29.1 120 25.2% 6.0% 78
Edwin Jackson Nationals 23.2 100 27.1% 7.9% 78
Justin Verlander Tigers 21.0 91 26.2% 7.1% 78
Madison Bumgarner Giants 29.0 106 25.7% 6.6% 78
Craig Kimbrel Braves 6.0 22 26.5% 7.5% 79
Stephen Strasburg Nationals 24.0 92 26.8% 8.0% 79

Notes
Mike Trout‘s exclusion from the hitting leaderboard probably has a lot to do with how (a) a not insignificant portiion of his offensive value is derived from sustaining a rather high BABIP and (b) the method utilized here doesn’t reward BABIP ability, at all.
• At 4.9%, Chase Headley has the highest expected home-run rate among all batters in August — ahead of second place Albert Pujols (4.6%) and third place Giancarlo Stanton (4.4%).
• For a reliever to appear on the pitching leaderboard requires — on account of regression — requires a particular sort of dominance. In Craig Kimbrel‘s case, it required striking out 15 of 22 batters faced (68.2%) in August.

Complete and Entirely Sexy Regressed Leaderboards for August
Click this hyperlinked text for the complete regressed August leaderboards.

Today’s Notable Games
St. Louis at Cincinnati | 19:10 ET
The Reds enter this series with a seven-game lead over the Cardinals. According to WAR, however, the lead should be six games — for the Cardinals.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

Minnesota at Texas | 20:05 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Apropos this game only, like, 15%, here’s 19-year-old Ranger shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar‘s line at Double-A Frisco this season: 535 PA, 11.0% BB, 14.2% K, 14 HR, .285/.366/.463 (.309 BABIP).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 4.2.

Note: the following Game Scores include the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment discussed in a recent edition of Daily Notes. Also note: the following table is entirely sortable.


Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Drew Pomeranz COL 4 8 4 2 10 CHN Jeff Samardzija 14:20
Zack Greinke LAA 9 8 7 4 7 DET Rick Porcello 19:05
Mike Fiers MIL 7 8 6 4 4 PIT Wandy Rodriguez 19:05
CC Sabathia NYA 9 7 4 2 5 CLE Corey Kluber* 19:05
Carlos Villanueva TOR 5 6 3 1 3 BAL Zach Britton 19:05
Edwin Jackson WAS 7 6 3 5 3 PHI Kyle Kendrick 19:05
Jordan Lyles HOU 6 4 4 2 7 NYN Jon Niese 19:10
Bruce Chen KC 3 7 3 6 7 BOS Jon Lester 19:10
Jarrod Parker OAK 6 6 6 4 7 TB Matt Moore 19:10
Lance Lynn STL 7 9 7 5 8 CIN Mat Latos 19:10
Samuel Deduno MIN 0 4 1 7 5 TEX Matt Harrison 20:05
Jason Vargas SEA 3 4 3 4 6 CHA Jake Peavy 20:10
Eric Stults SD 2 6 4 7 7 AZ Patrick Corbin 21:40
Nathan Eovaldi MIA 4 3 4 1 6 LAN Chad Billingsley 22:10
Ben Sheets ATL 5 8 4 3 3 SF Ryan Vogelsong 22:15

To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.


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