Daily Notes: Statistical Update on 2013’s First-Round Picks

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Statistical Update on 2013’s First-Round Picks
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Statistical Update on 2013’s First-Round Picks
The Purpose of This Post
The purpose of this post is to announce that the author has updated the custom leaderboard featuring every first-round pick from the most recent draft both to have signed and also played for an affiliate of the relevant drafting team.

New Additions to the Leaderboard
Here are the players who’ve been added to the leaderboard since the most recent edition of same in late July (sorted by order picked in draft):

Trey Ball, LHP, Boston
Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore
Ian Clarkin, LHP, New York AL

Hyperlink to the Leaderboard in Question
Click this hyperlinked text to view the updated version of the first-rounders batting leaderboard (sorted by weighted runs above average), and this other hyperlinked text for the pitching leaderboard (sorted by FIP).

Five Notes
• The leaderboard now contains 29 of the 33 first-round picks from the most recent draft. Absent are notable college players, former Arkansas pitcher Ryne Stanek (RHP, Tampa Bay) and very giant Aaron Judge (OF, New York AL). Also absent are 10th-overall pick Phil Bickford, a high-school right-hander who ultimately failed to reach an agreement with Toronto, and also Alex Gonzalez (RHP, Texas), because his name is absent from the database for some reason.

• Pittsburgh outfield prospect Austin Meadows produced the most weighted runs above average of any first-round draftee, slashing .316/.424/.554 in 211 plate appearances between the Gulf Coast and New York-Penn Leagues. He appears, at age 18, to have been the second-youngest player in all of Low-A.

• Accounting for age relative to level, either Pittsburgh catching prospect Reese McGuire or Philadelphia shortstop J.P. Crawford most excellently controlled the strike zone. Both recorded walk-to-strikeout ratios of approximately 1:1. Both earned promotions to something higher than Rookie ball, as 18 year olds, by the end of the season.

• After producing merely excellent numbers with Colorado’s Rookie-league affiliate Grand Junction, very hard-throwing Jonathan Gray posted more distinctly absurd ones in the California League, recording strikeout and walk rates of 41.9% and 7.0%, respectively, in five starts and 24.0 innings. His cumulative 1.19 FIP was the lowest among all draftees.

• Baltimore draftee, right-hander Hunter Harvey recorded rates (33.0% K, 6.0% BB) nearly identical to Gray’s overall — this, as an 18-year-old who made his last three starts in the Low-A New York-Penn League.

Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Texas at Los Angeles AL | 22:05 ET
Matt Garza (126.2 IP, 94 xFIP-, 1.7 WAR) faces C.J. Wilson (177.1 IP, 96 xFIP-, 3.1 WAR). The former’s numbers so far following the July trade that sent him to Texas: 55.2 IP, 23.3% K, 5.7% BB, 86 xFIP-, 0.8 WAR, 0.8 RA9-WAR.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire.

Note that these NERD scores are calculated using the methodology introduced recently and designed to account for the influence of playoff odds on the watchability of games. ***Unlike in recent iterations of this table, the author has adjusted the day’s NERD Game Scores such that, combined, they average 5.0.*** This allows said table to resemble more closely the Game Scores that have appeared here over the preceding four months.


Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Kyle Lohse MIL 4 0 2 0 3 CHN Chris Rusin 14:20
Mike Minor ATL 8 0 4 0 9 PHI Cliff Lee 19:05
Felix Doubront BOS 4 0 4 3 4 NYA Andy Pettitte 19:05
John Danks CHA 6 0 3 1 3 BAL Scott Feldman 19:05
Zack Wheeler NYN 7 0 7 6 7 CLE Scott Kazmir 19:05
Chris Capuano LAN 5 0 3 2 4 CIN Mike Leake 19:10
Dan Haren WAS 7 1 4 0 10 MIA J. Fernandez 19:10
Anibal Sanchez DET 9 0 3 0 5 KC James Shields 20:10
R.A. Dickey TOR 9 0 2 0 0 MIN Mike Pelfrey 20:10
A.J. Burnett PIT 8 7 10 6 4 STL Joe Kelly 20:15
Dallas Keuchel HOU 6 0 9 10 5 OAK A.J. Griffin 22:05
Matt Garza TEX 6 10 9 0 4 LAA C.J. Wilson 22:05
Juan Nicasio COL 3 0 3 0 10 SD Burch Smith* 22:10
Alex Cobb TB 7 7 8 0 7 SEA H. Iwakuma 22:10
Patrick Corbin AZ 9 0 4 0 9 SF Y. Petit* 22:15

To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.




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8 Responses to “Daily Notes: Statistical Update on 2013’s First-Round Picks”

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  1. Pirates Hurdles says:

    For all the problems with the new draft rules, the new system has succeeded in getting players signed quickly and on the field. Meadows and McGuire would have held out until 8/15 and barely played ball at all this summer. Instead they each got 200 plate appearances and should be able to start 2014 in full-season ball.

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  2. Stefan K. says:

    I wish Fangraphs would have a draft section like thebaseballcube.com.

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  3. jg941 says:

    You need to at least add the team affiliation to each player – I assume you didn’t if a player was at two different levels this year, but it should be easy enough to either add their latest level, add all levels they were at, or just the MLB-affiliation. Would be a much more informative board with that.

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  4. Andrew says:

    Alex Gonzalez (RHP, Texas) goes by the name of Chi-Chi Gonzalez. You can find him listed here.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa709714&position=P

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  5. Draft Expert says:

    Remember when this draft class was “One of the weakest ever?” I see a pretty impressive group of players on those lists.

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  6. Shauncore says:

    Hunter Dozier OBP God

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  7. Jason says:

    Does that seem an excessive number of teams with a team NERD of 0? Looks like a spreadsheet error, but I never seem to grasp how they’re calculated so maybe I’m mistaken.

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