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Daily Notes: Sunday’s Games Considered for Your Pleasure

Posted By Carson Cistulli On April 28, 2013 @ 12:27 pm In Daily Notes | No Comments

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Today’s Notable Games (With a Note on Free MLB.TV Games)
2. Potentially Useful Video: John Lackey’s Season Debut
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Today’s Notable Games (With a Note on Free MLB.TV Games)
Note: on what MLBAM is calling Free Preview Sunday, all of today’s games besides the Atlanta-Detroit ESPN Sunday Night one are available for free on MLB.TV.

Cincinnati at Washington | 13:35 ET
After an excellent performance in his first major-league start, Tony Cingrani was even better in his second one, striking out nine of 25 Cubs batters while walking none (box). Notable is this: Cingrani compiled 12 swinging-strikes among the 72 fastballs he threw, or ca. 17%. League average, meanwhile, is about 6%.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio

Houston at Boston | 13:35 ET
Likely much to the surprise of the Boston fan, who’s incapable of not spitting whilst uttering the right-hander’s name, John Lackey began his season debut on April 6th by striking out eight of the first 19 batters he faced (box). Likely less to that same Bostonian’s surprise is how Lackey was forced to depart that game with an injury. Today, Lackey returns. Of note: Lackey’s curveball seemed to be particularly useful in that first game, inducing whiffs four of the 11 times Lackey appears to have thrown it.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio or Television*

*Note: both Bill Brown and Jim Deshaies, responsible for Houston’s excellent broadcast ratings a year-plus ago, have departed from the Astros television broadcast. The author will likely be facilitating a new round of broadcast rankings in the coming months.

Potentially Useful Video: John Lackey’s Season Debut
Here’s potentially useful video of John Lackey’s season debut, during which he struck out eight of 19 batters faced before leaving with a biceps injury. He throws his curveball, which was particularly effective, at 0:26 and 0:43.

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again on Monday, April 29.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, and presented as they appear at Pinnacle — which appears to be in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

Game Teams Starters IP xFIP- WAR —– Line Win%
13:10 Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels 31.2 106 0.2 | 1.87 52.4%
ET New York Mets Jon Niese 26.0 122 0.0 | 2.06 47.6%
|
13:10 Chicago Cubs Carlos Villanueva 29.1 87 0.2 | 1.89 52.0%
ET Miami Marlins Ricky Nolasco 28.1 110 0.3 | 2.04 48.0%
|
13:35 Cincinnati Reds Tony Cingrani 12.0 57 0.3 | 2.01 48.8%
ET Washington Nationals Ross Detwiler 26.0 111 0.5 | 1.92 51.2%
|
14:15 Pittsburgh Pirates Jeff Locke 21.2 134 -0.4 | 2.74 35.8%
ET St. Louis Cardinals Shelby Miller 25.0 83 0.7 | 1.53 64.2%
|
16:10 Milwaukee Brewers Kyle Lohse 25.0 85 0.7 | 2.52 38.9%
ET Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw 33.2 83 0.6 | 1.61 61.1%
|
16:10 San Francisco Giants Ryan Vogelsong 25.1 106 0.1 | 1.79 54.6%
ET San Diego Padres Jason Marquis 23.1 129 -0.5 | 2.16 45.4%
|
16:10 Colorado Rockies Jon Garland 25.0 109 0.1 | 2.26 43.4%
ET Arizona Diamondbacks Patrick Corbin 26.1 98 0.7 | 1.73 56.6%
|
13:05 Toronto Blue Jays R.A. Dickey 29.0 112 0.4 | 1.92 51.2%
ET New York Yankees Phil Hughes 21.0 103 0.0 | 2.01 48.8%
|
13:35 Houston Astros Bud Norris 24.0 126 0.2 | 2.82 34.8%
ET Boston Red Sox John Lackey 4.1 16 0.1 | 1.50 65.2%
|
14:10 Texas Rangers Alexi Ogando 26.0 92 0.4 | 1.78 55.0%
ET Minnesota Twins Kevin Correia 28.1 102 0.5 | 2.18 45.0%
|
14:10 Tampa Bay Rays David Price 31.0 83 0.3 | 1.75 56.2%
ET Chicago White Sox Dylan Axelrod 21.1 119 0.3 | 2.24 43.8%
|
14:10 G1 Cleveland Indians Justin Masterson 34.0 95 0.7 | 2.02 48.6%
ET G1 Kansas City Royals Jeremy Guthrie 25.2 98 -0.1 | 1.91 51.4%
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16:05 Baltimore Orioles Miguel Gonzalez 24.0 140 -0.1 | 2.31 42.5%
ET Oakland Athletics Bartolo Colon 26.0 87 0.7 | 1.70 57.5%
|
16:10 LAA Angels Jason Vargas 21.2 137 0.1 | 2.00 49.1%
ET Seattle Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma 31.2 83 0.4 | 1.93 50.9%
|
20:05 Atlanta Braves Mike Minor 25.0 85 0.8 | 2.28 43.0%
ET Detroit Tigers Doug Fister 27.0 99 0.5 | 1.72 57.0%
|
20:10 G2 Cleveland Indians Corey Kluber 5.0 61 0.1 | 2.20 44.6%
ET G2 Kansas City Royals Will Smith #N/A #N/A #N/A | 1.77 55.4%

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