Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
Three True Outcome Leaders and Laggards So Far
Recently in these pages, Cleveland corner infielder Mark Reynolds characterized his hitting approach for the benefit of David Laurila, saying, “I would say my swing is… a controlled train wreck. I just get it down and let it eat.” Will the comment win him a much deserved Pulitzer Prize for Joyous Remarks? It remains to be seen. What it reveals beyond his gift for the language, though, is the means by which he has consistently found himself among the league’s leaders both in strikeouts and home runs.
Below are the current leaders and laggards by all three true outcomes — both by overall percentage and then by averaged z-score (i.e. average standard deviations from the mean in all three categories). Numbers don’t include Wednesday games.
Three True Outcomes by Percentage: Leaders
Here are the three-true-outcome leaders by percentage among qualified batters:
|Adam Dunn||White Sox||188||12||19||66||97||51.6%|
|Colby Rasmus||Blue Jays||182||8||14||64||86||47.3%|
|Mike Napoli||Red Sox||222||8||21||74||103||46.4%|
Three True Outcomes by Percentage: Laggards
And here are the laggards by the same method:
|Jeff Keppinger||White Sox||175||1||2||17||20||11.4%|
Three True Outcomes by Z-Score: Leaders
Because strikeouts naturally occur more frequently (the average among qualified batters is around 19%) and home runs less frequently (around 3%), considering only overall three-true-outcome percentage naturally skews the odds in favor of high-strikeout batters, even if they lag behind in the other two categories. Roy Halladay, for example, has 11 strikeouts in 11 plate appearances. One-hundred percent of his plate appearances have ended in one of the true outcomse. It wouldn’t be fair, though, to characterize him as a three-true-outcome hitter.
To adjust for that effect, we can look at a player’s true-outcome performance relative to the mean in each category by using z-scores (basically just standard deviations from the mean). Here are the top-10 qualified batters by that methodology:
|Adam Dunn||White Sox||2.0||0.5||2.5||1.7|
|Jose Bautista||Blue Jays||1.7||2.3||-0.2||1.3|
Three True Outcomes by Z-Score: Laggards
And the laggards, as well:
|Jeff Keppinger||White Sox||-1.4||-2.2||-1.3||-1.6|
|Alexei Ramirez||White Sox||-1.4||-1.0||-1.0||-1.1|
• In light of the above, it would probably be most accurate to say that Atlanta outfielder Justin Upton is currently the champion of the three-true-outcome hitters, having recorded home-run, walk, and strikeout rates on average about 1.8 standard deviations above the mean for qualified hitters.
• Carlos Peguero appears to be the hitter with the fewest plate appearances to have recorded one of each of the three true outcomes. In seven plate appearances, he has a home run, a walk, and two strikeouts.
Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Boston at Philadelphia | 19:05 ET
Franklin Morales (76.1 IP, 101 xFIP- 0.8 WAR in 2012) faces Jonathan Pettibone (42.0 IP, 117 xFIP-, 0.0 WAR). The former, after recovering from multiple injuries, is making his 2013 debut. The left-hander sat at ca. 94 mph over his last four starts of 2012.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Philadelphia Radio.
Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.1.
Note: the following table is entirely sortable.
|Brandon McCarthy||AZ||6||4||6||4||6||TEX||Justin Grimm||14:05|
|Jake Peavy||CHA||7||0||4||5||3||CHN||Travis Wood||14:20|
|Felix Hernandez||SEA||10||6||8||7||6||SD||Andrew Cashner||15:40|
|A.J. Griffin||OAK||5||6||4||4||2||SF||Barry Zito||15:45|
|Franklin Morales*||BOS||7||7||5||1||4||PHI||Jonath. Pettibone||19:05|
|Homer Bailey||CIN||8||6||7||9||6||CLE||Scott Kazmir||19:05|
|Doug Fister||DET||6||7||5||7||3||PIT||Jeff Locke||19:05|
|Dillon Gee||NYN||3||6||4||5||5||NYA||Vidal Nuno*||19:05|
|Dan Haren||WAS||5||2||4||9||1||BAL||Freddy Garcia||19:05|
|Alex Colome*||TB||9||7||6||1||5||MIA||Ricky Nolasco||19:10|
|R.A. Dickey||TOR||9||6||8||9||7||ATL||Mike Minor||19:10|
|Kyle Lohse||MIL||5||5||4||2||4||MIN||P.J. Walters*||20:10|
|Jeremy Guthrie||KC||2||6||5||2||8||STL||Michael Wacha*||20:15|
|Lucas Harrell||HOU||0||4||3||7||3||COL||Juan Nicasio||20:40|
|Ted Lilly*||LAN||4||2||3||5||2||LAA||Jason Vargas||22:05|
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