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Daily Notes: Top Performances of the Carolina League So Far

Posted By Carson Cistulli On April 22, 2013 @ 12:23 pm In Daily Notes | 9 Comments

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Three Notable Carolina League Peformances
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: High-A Carolina League
3. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Three Notable Carolina League Peformances
The leaderboards for the High-A Carolina League are below. Here are brief notes on three players from those leaderboards — like who they are mostly, for example.

• In addition to being on of the Carolina League’s youngest players, Baltimore infield prospect Nick Delmonico has also been one of its most offensively productive. Taken in the sixth round of the 2011 draft by Baltimore out of a Tennessee high school, Delmonico has produced an excellent slash-line (.325/.471/.600) thus far which, despite rather a high .407 BABIP, is supported by the regressed numbers, too. After splitting time between first and second base last season, he’s played mostly third base so far in this one.

• Even younger than Delmonico is Cleveland shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor, an object of considerable fascination for most prospect analysts, at this point. Here, for example, is where he ranked on Marc Hulet’s preseason top-100 list: 20th. And Baseball America’s: 28th. And Bullpen Banter’s: ninth. Despite an absence of homers, he’s walked more than’s struck out to begin the season — and, again, is in his age-19 season.

• Six-foot-five left-handed Rangers prospect Victor Payano has been the Carolina League’s most impressive pitcher through three starts, posting a 22:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14.1 innings. Originally signed for $75,000 by Texas in 2010, Payano seems to have appeared on few, if any, prospect lists — and, in fact, struggled with his command in the Sally League last season, recording a 97:62 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 105.0 innings.

SCOUT Leaderboards: High-A Carolina League
Previously considered: Triple-A International League (April 10) / Triple-A Pacific Coast League (April 11) / Double-A Eastern League (April 12) / Double-A Southern League (April 16) / Double-A Texas League (April 17).

Below are the present SCOUT hitting and pitching leaderboards for the High-A Carolina League.

“What is a SCOUT leaderboard, gentleman author?” perhaps a person is asking somewhere — to which question that same author has provided a (hopefully) reasonable answer here. In brief, however, it’s this: an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production and prevention in instances where small samples prevail.

Below, as I say, are those leaderboards for the High-A Carolina League. (Note: statistics current as of Monday.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: Carolina League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the High-A Carolina League. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Carolina League hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player Team Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Billy Burns Nationals (A+) 23 71 0 12 7 1.3% 12.0% 16.3% 115
Nick Delmonico Orioles (A+) 20 51 2 11 11 2.1% 12.4% 21.9% 114
Samuel Starr Orioles (A+) 25 63 1 7 5 1.7% 9.8% 16.1% 113
Sean Coyle Red Sox (A+) 21 41 3 4 7 2.5% 9.4% 20.7% 112
Preston Beck Rangers (A+) 22 27 0 7 1 1.6% 11.5% 18.8% 111
Kevan Smith White Sox (A+) 25 59 2 5 7 2.1% 9.0% 18.1% 111
Jerrud Sabourin Indians (A+) 23 62 0 9 6 1.4% 10.9% 17.0% 111
Joseph Wendle Indians (A+) 23 59 1 9 9 1.7% 11.0% 19.4% 111
Robert Hefflinger Braves (A+) 23 64 5 4 16 3.1% 8.3% 23.3% 110
Kellin Deglan Rangers (A+) 21 37 2 6 8 2.2% 10.5% 22.0% 109

SCOUT Leaderboard: Carolina League Hitters (Age 22 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the High-A Carolina League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Nick Delmonico Orioles (A+) 20 51 2 11 11 2.1% 12.4% 21.9% 114
Sean Coyle Red Sox (A+) 21 41 3 4 7 2.5% 9.4% 20.7% 112
Preston Beck Rangers (A+) 22 27 0 7 1 1.6% 11.5% 18.8% 111
Kellin Deglan Rangers (A+) 21 37 2 6 8 2.2% 10.5% 22.0% 109
Francisco Lindor Indians (A+) 19 65 0 7 6 1.4% 9.7% 16.5% 108
Garin Cecchini Red Sox (A+) 22 59 1 7 9 1.7% 10.0% 19.4% 108
Justin Trapp Royals (A+) 22 69 1 10 14 1.7% 11.1% 21.3% 106
Jake Lowery Indians (A+) 22 29 1 6 7 1.9% 10.9% 22.5% 106
William Beckwith Braves (A+) 22 62 4 5 17 2.7% 8.9% 24.3% 106
Daniel Mateo Royals (A+) 21 61 1 3 6 1.7% 7.9% 17.1% 106

SCOUT Leaderboard: Carolina League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the High-A Carolina League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Carolina League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player Team Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Victor Payano Rangers (A+) 20 3 3 14.1 54 22 4 28.8% 9.1% 78
Tim Berry Orioles (A+) 22 3 3 17.0 66 21 3 26.4% 8.7% 85
Spencer Patton Royals (A+) 25 5 0 12.1 51 19 7 27.2% 9.7% 85
Kyle Smith Royals (A+) 20 3 3 13.1 60 21 8 27.2% 9.7% 85
Tyler Herron Nationals (A+) 26 4 0 7.0 31 14 4 26.8% 9.5% 86
Nathan Hyatt Braves (A+) 22 5 0 6.0 24 11 0 25.9% 8.8% 87
Robbie Ray Nationals (A+) 21 4 4 23.0 88 26 10 26.5% 9.6% 87
Kyle Zimmer Royals (A+) 21 3 3 14.0 57 18 3 25.7% 8.8% 87
Matthew Bischoff Orioles (A+) 26 4 1 9.1 34 12 0 25.1% 8.7% 89
Wilson Rivera Braves (A+) 23 5 0 9.0 36 13 4 25.4% 9.4% 90

SCOUT Leaderboard: Carolina League Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the High-A Carolina League who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Victor Payano Rangers (A+) 20 3 3 14.1 54 22 4 28.8% 9.1% 78
Tim Berry Orioles (A+) 22 3 3 17.0 66 21 3 26.4% 8.7% 85
Kyle Smith Royals (A+) 20 3 3 13.1 60 21 8 27.2% 9.7% 85
Robbie Ray Nationals (A+) 21 4 4 23.0 88 26 10 26.5% 9.6% 87
Kyle Zimmer Royals (A+) 21 3 3 14.0 57 18 3 25.7% 8.8% 87
William Cuevas Red Sox (A+) 22 3 3 12.2 53 15 3 24.3% 8.9% 92
Ryan Weber Braves (A+) 22 3 3 16.0 65 17 3 23.8% 8.7% 93
Luke Jackson Rangers (A+) 21 3 3 14.1 60 17 8 24.6% 9.7% 94
Henry Owens Red Sox (A+) 20 3 3 15.0 61 16 5 23.8% 9.1% 94
Eduardo Rodriguez Orioles (A+) 20 3 3 19.0 75 18 3 23.0% 8.5% 95

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Oakland at Boston | 18:30 ET
In 34 career starts now — i.e. roughly the number a healthy pitcher would make in a season — Boston left-hander Felix Doubront has posted roughly above-average numbers. To wit: 186.1 IP, 23.0% K, 10.0% BB, 43.5% GB, 3.90 SIERA, 93 xFIP-, 2.6 WAR. He’s been less adept in preventing runs (111 ERA-), but everyone who’s anyone understands that Doubront that a combo package of chance and defense play a role in run that, as well. By contrast, anyone who’s everyone is probably Walt Whitman.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio or Television.

Miami at Minnesota | 20:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
From Job, Book 1 (King James Edition)

13 And there was a day when his sons and his daughters were eating and drinking wine in their eldest brother’s house:

14 And there came a messenger unto Job, and said, The oxen were plowing, and the asses feeding beside them:

15 And the Sabeans fell upon them, and took them away; yea, they have slain the servants with the edge of the sword; and I only am escaped alone to tell thee.

16 While he was yet speaking, there came also another, and said, The fire of God is fallen from heaven, and hath burned up the sheep, and the servants, and consumed them; and I only am escaped alone to tell thee.

17 While he was yet speaking, there came also another, and said, The Chaldeans made out three bands, and fell upon the camels, and have carried them away, yea, and slain the servants with the edge of the sword; and I only am escaped alone to tell thee.

18 While he was yet speaking, there came also another, and said, Thy sons and thy daughters were eating and drinking wine in their eldest brother’s house:

19 And, behold, there came a great wind from the wilderness, and smote the four corners of the house, and it fell upon the young men, and they are dead; and I only am escaped alone to tell thee.

20 And, finally, another servant came and said, Thou must attend tonight’s game in Minneapolis, with regard to which city the National Weather Service has declared a Winter Storm Warning and which game features two teams of most pitiful mien, or at least pretty bad mien.

21 In response to which final calamity, Job was said, “That’s too much. Everything else, I get it. But I won’t tolerate this!”

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Minnesota Radio, Perhaps?

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, and presented as they appear at Pinnacle — which appears to be in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

Game Teams Starters IP xFIP- WAR —– Line Win%
19:05 St. Louis Cardinals Shelby Miller 18.1 85 0.4 | 1.93 50.9%
ET Washington Nationals Dan Haren 13.1 121 -0.2 | 2.00 49.1%
|
19:10 Chicago Cubs Travis Wood 19.2 119 0.5 | 2.43 40.4%
ET Cincinnati Reds Mike Leake 19.0 113 0.1 | 1.65 59.6%
|
20:40 Atlanta Braves Mike Minor 19.0 78 0.7 | 1.86 52.9%
ET Colorado Rockies Jeff Francis 12.0 113 0.3 | 2.08 47.1%
|
22:10 Milwaukee Brewers Kyle Lohse 20.0 84 0.5 | 1.86 52.9%
ET San Diego Padres Jason Marquis 18.2 118 -0.1 | 2.08 47.1%
|
22:15 Arizona Diamondbacks Wade Miley 19.1 95 0.4 | 2.08 47.1%
ET San Francisco Giants Ryan Vogelsong 18.1 100 0.3 | 1.86 52.9%
|
18:30 Oakland Athletics A.J. Griffin 20.0 113 0.4 | 2.15 45.6%
ET Boston Red Sox Felix Doubront 10.0 72 0.3 | 1.80 54.4%
|
19:05 Toronto Blue Jays J.A. Happ 16.0 125 0.2 | 2.04 48.0%
ET Baltimore Orioles Chris Tillman 14.0 112 0.0 | 1.89 52.0%
|
19:10 New York Yankees CC Sabathia 28.0 94 0.9 | 2.05 47.8%
ET Tampa Bay Rays Matt Moore 18.0 93 0.3 | 1.88 52.2%
|
20:10 Cleveland Indians Justin Masterson 27.0 84 0.8 | 1.96 50.0%
ET Chicago White Sox Dylan Axelrod 15.1 126 0.1 | 1.96 50.0%
|
20:10 Seattle Mariners Felix Hernandez 28.2 73 0.7 | 1.61 61.1%
ET Houston Astros Brad Peacock 13.2 126 0.0 | 2.52 38.9%
|
22:05 Texas Rangers Derek Holland 22.0 95 0.6 | 2.00 49.1%
ET LAA Angels Joe Blanton 14.2 131 -0.5 | 1.93 50.9%
|
20:10 Miami Marlins Ricky Nolasco 23.1 109 0.2 | 2.38 41.2%
ET Minnesota Twins Kevin Correia 21.1 105 0.2 | 1.67 58.8%

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