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Daily Notes, With a Thing Called “Normalized NERD”

Posted By Carson Cistulli On September 23, 2012 @ 12:38 pm In Daily Notes | 8 Comments

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Idle Experiment: Normalized NERD
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Idle Experiment: Normalized NERD
What the Reader Might Have Noticed
It’s possible the reader will have noticed that, more often than not, the averages for the day’s NERD games scores — NERD itself being the infallible watchability metric conceived by the author — that the averages for them of late have been below the overall average NERD score of 5.

Why That Is
The reason for why the averages of the daily NERD games scores are lower than 5 likely has everything to do with the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment. Said playoff-odds adjustment adds a bonus of up to 2 points for a game featuring teams with uncertain playoff fates, subtracts up to 2 points from a game involving teams which are closer either to a 0% or 100% chance of making the postseason.

Why That Is, Part II
Because playoff odds for the majority of teams are known with some certainty in September, it follows that there would be more penalties than bonuses added to the various game scores. It also follows that the daily average NERD game scores would be less than 5 (just as it is frequently above 5 in May, for example).

An Idle Experiment
It occurred to the author that such a thing as Normalized NERD could exist, in which it was taken for granted that the day’s average NERD game score would always be 5. This would give the reader a sense of what a game might be worth relative more specifically to the day in question — as opposed to all the days before and after it.

An Idle Experiment, Part II
Here are all of today’s games, with the game scores having been normalized to produce an average NERD game score of 5 for the day:


Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Scott Diamond MIN 5 4 8 5 10 DET Max Scherzer 13:05
A.J. Griffin OAK 7 6 7 7 6 NYA Hiroki Kuroda 13:05
Ricky Nolasco MIA 4 4 0 2 0 NYN Chris Young 13:10
Tim Hudson ATL 4 6 6 6 10 PHI Cliff Lee 13:35
Chris Tillman BAL 5 2 5 5 7 BOS Felix Doubront 13:35
Yovani Gallardo MIL 6 9 6 7 4 WAS C-M Wang* 13:35
Chad Jenkins* TOR 5 4 4 6 3 TB Jer. Hellickson 13:40
A.J. Burnett PIT 7 4 5 4 6 HOU Jordan Lyles 14:05
David Huff* CLE 4 2 7 7 13 KC Jake Odorizzi* 14:10
Kyle Lohse STL 5 8 4 2 3 CHN Justin Germano 14:20
Ian Kennedy AZ 5 7 5 7 5 COL Jeff Francis 15:10
Gavin Floyd CHA 4 4 6 8 4 LAA Jered Weaver 15:35
Eric Stults SD 3 7 5 4 8 SF Yusmeiro Petit* 16:05
Ryan Dempster TEX 6 7 4 4 3 SEA Jason Vargas 16:10
P.J. Walters MIN 2 4 5 5 7 DET Drew Smyly 19:05
Aaron Harang LAN 1 0 2 4 6 CIN Homer Bailey 20:05

Today’s Notable Games
Minnesota at Detroit | 13:05 ET
Detroit right-hander and avant-garde sportsman Max Scherzer (178.2 IP, 76 xFIP-, 4.3 WAR) left his last start after two innings with what was described as “shoulder fatigue.” After testing his arm on Saturday, however, he has been cleared to start the first game of the Tigers’ doubleheader against the Twins today.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

Cleveland at Kansas City | 14:10 ET
Royals right-handed prospect Jake Odorizzi makes his major-league debut today. Odorizzi, 22, was part of the package received by Kansas City in exchange for Zack Greinke before the 2011 season. Here’s his line from the very menacing Pacific Coast League: 107.1 IP, 7.38 K/9, 3.35 BB/9, 1.01 HR/9, 4.19 FIP. Here’s what his regressed pitching line was relative to the PCL average: almost exactly average. Here’s his place on Marc Hulet’s top-15 prospect list for the Royals from before the season: fourth.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

Arizona at Colorado | 15:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
It is not uncommon for people of various religious traditions to suggest that, while the significance of present events is not necessarily clear, that the import of said events will be revealed with time. One assumes a similar policy might apply to this game, which is being offered free to anyone with a reasonable internet connection who doesn’t also live in Arizona or Colorado.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 3.75.

Note: the following Game Scores include the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment discussed in a recent edition of Daily Notes. Also note: the following table is entirely sortable.


Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Scott Diamond MIN 5 4 6 5 10 DET Max Scherzer 13:05
A.J. Griffin OAK 7 6 5 7 6 NYA Hiroki Kuroda 13:05
Ricky Nolasco MIA 4 4 0 2 0 NYN Chris Young 13:10
Tim Hudson ATL 4 6 5 6 10 PHI Cliff Lee 13:35
Chris Tillman BAL 5 2 4 5 7 BOS Felix Doubront 13:35
Yovani Gallardo MIL 6 9 5 7 4 WAS C-M Wang* 13:35
Chad Jenkins* TOR 5 4 3 6 3 TB Jer. Hellickson 13:40
A.J. Burnett PIT 7 4 4 4 6 HOU Jordan Lyles 14:05
David Huff* CLE 4 2 5 7 13 KC Jake Odorizzi* 14:10
Kyle Lohse STL 5 8 3 2 3 CHN Justin Germano 14:20
Ian Kennedy AZ 5 7 4 7 5 COL Jeff Francis 15:10
Gavin Floyd CHA 4 4 5 8 4 LAA Jered Weaver 15:35
Eric Stults SD 3 7 3 4 8 SF Yusmeiro Petit* 16:05
Ryan Dempster TEX 6 7 3 4 3 SEA Jason Vargas 16:10
P.J. Walters MIN 2 4 4 5 7 DET Drew Smyly 19:05
Aaron Harang LAN 1 0 1 4 6 CIN Homer Bailey 20:05

To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.


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