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Daily Notes: With Also Minor-League Games for Your Pleasure

Posted By Carson Cistulli On April 20, 2013 @ 12:00 pm In Daily Notes | 5 Comments

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
2. Today’s Notable Minor-League Games
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Kansas City at Boston | 13:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
One assumes that this game will have something of the celebratory feel after Friday night’s nearly ideal resolution to an otherwise startling series of events. That will make Fenway Park and its occupants a compelling spectacle in and of themselves. Incidentally, there’s also rather a promising pitching matchup between James Shields (21.0 IP, 74 xFIP-) and Clay Buchholz (22.0 IP, 86 xFIP-). Regarding Buchholz: he’s posted a 27.4% strikeout rate so far, about 10 percentage points above his career average. That’s encouraging. Less encouraging is how his swinging-strike rate — which correlates very highly with strikeout rate — is basically the same (8.5%) as in previous seasons.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio or Television.

Cleveland at Houston | 19:10 ET
Cleveland left-hander Scott Kazmir makes his first major-league appearance since April 3, 2011. He pitched well in his only minor-league appearances this year, a start, recording the following line (link): 5.0 IP, 18 TBF, 5 K, 0 BB, 0 HR.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television.

Today’s Notable Minor-League Games
Click here for entire MiLB.TV schedule on just one page.

Bowling Green (Rays) at Dayton (Reds) | 19:00 ET
Right-handed Cincinnati prospect Robert Stephenson starts for Dayton. He’s conceded quite a bit in the way of runs so far through three starts (12.2 IP, 7.11 ERA), but has done so while also posting a 20:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio that’s likely more indicative of his talent. The 20-year-old was ranked second overall in the Reds system by Marc Hulet on his presearon organizational top-15 list, and was recently spotted throwing throwing at 96-99 mph by the internet’s Doug Gray.

Broadcast: MiLB.TV. (And maybe streaming for free, according to the internet’s Doug Gray.)

Tucson (Padres) at Fresno (Giants) | 22:05 ET
Right-hander Chris Heston starts for Triple-A Fresno. At 25, he’s slightly older, but has posted excellent peripherals, finishing second last season among starts on the SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Double-A Eastern League, before appearing atop that same kind of leaderboard for the PCL to begin the present season. The internet suggests that he relies on command as opposed to raw stuff.

Broadcast: MiLB.TV.

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, and presented as they appear at Pinnacle — which appears to be in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

Game Teams Starters IP xFIP- —– Line Win%
13:10 Miami Marlins Wade LeBlanc 14.2 108 | 3.11 31.5%
ET Cincinnati Reds Bronson Arroyo 20.0 104 | 1.43 68.5%
|
15:05 Washington Nationals Gio Gonzalez 16.0 96 | 1.68 58.5%
ET New York Mets Jeremy Hefner 10.0 144 | 2.36 41.5%
|
19:05 St. Louis Cardinals Lance Lynn 15.0 95 | 2.25 43.6%
ET Philadelphia Phillies Cliff Lee 23.2 84 | 1.74 56.4%
|
19:05 Atlanta Braves Paul Maholm 20.1 78 | 1.76 55.8%
ET Pittsburgh Pirates James McDonald 13.2 151 | 2.22 44.2%
|
19:10 Chicago Cubs Edwin Jackson 16.1 92 | 2.06 47.6%
ET Milwaukee Brewers Hiram Burgos N/A N/A | 1.87 52.4%
|
20:10 Arizona Diamondbacks Trevor Cahill 18.0 84 | 2.09 46.9%
ET Colorado Rockies Jorge de la Rosa 16.1 97 | 1.85 53.1%
|
21:05 San Diego Padres Clayton Richard 15.1 140 | 2.45 40.1%
ET San Francisco Giants Tim Lincecum 16.0 127 | 1.64 59.9%
|
13:05 New York Yankees Hiroki Kuroda 15.2 95 | 1.94 50.5%
ET Toronto Blue Jays Mark Buehrle 16.0 120 | 1.98 49.5%
|
13:10 Kansas City Royals James Shields 21.0 74 | 2.32 42.3%
ET Boston Red Sox Clay Buchholz 22.0 86 | 1.70 57.7%
|
15:05 Minnesota Twins Vance Worley 12.0 114 | 2.56 38.3%
ET Chicago White Sox Jake Peavy 18.1 55 | 1.59 61.7%
|
15:05 Detroit Tigers Rick Porcello 12.1 115 | 2.03 48.4%
ET LAA Angels Garrett Richards 10.2 99 | 1.90 51.6%
|
19:10 Oakland Athletics Jarrod Parker 11.2 183 | 2.18 45.0%
ET Tampa Bay Rays Jeremy Hellickson 18.1 105 | 1.78 55.0%
|
19:10 Cleveland Indians Scott Kazmir N/A N/A | 1.94 50.5%
ET Houston Astros Philip Humber 18.2 112 | 1.98 49.5%
|
20:05 Seattle Mariners Brandon Maurer 12.2 120 | 2.53 38.8%
ET Texas Rangers Nick Tepesch 13.0 82 | 1.60 61.2%
|
19:05 G2 Los Angeles Dodgers Josh Beckett 19.1 83 | 2.10 46.7%
ET G2 Baltimore Orioles Wei-Yin Chen 18.0 114 | 1.84 53.3%
|
13:05 G1 Los Angeles Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu 18.2 71 | 2.03 48.4%
ET G1 Baltimore Orioles Jason Hammel 18.2 132 | 1.90 51.6%

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