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Daily Notes, With Expected wOBAs for Almost All July

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Expected wOBA Leaderboards: Almost All July
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Expected wOBA Leaderboards: Almost All July
A Brief Explanation of What This Is
In the not very distant past, I presented something in the Notes called “Expected wOBA,” itself essentially a version of Bradley Woodrum’s Fielding Independent wOBA but with regressed (as opposed to raw) home-run, walk, and strikeout rates — and a (somewhat haphazardly) regressed version of Woodrum’s updated xBABIP formula, as well — as the inputs.

The idea behind Expected wOBA is to estimate something like a player’s true talent over the course of X plate appearances, where X equals a relatively low number.

Expected wOBA Leaders: Almost All July
Here are the leaders in Expected wOBA (xWOBA, in this case) among all batters over almost all July — which is to say, all of July except for July 31st, on account of that’s when I ran the data. Note that anything beginning with an -x- has been regressed. Note also that, in the absence of actual research having been done on it, I’ve opted to regress stolen-base percentage to 100 plate appearances (as, unregressed, it gives undue credit to players who’ve stolen one base in, for example, just four plate appearances).

Here’s the leaderboard, made just long enough to include Ryan Ludwick:


Name Team PA xHR% xBB% xK% xSB% xXBABIP xWOBA
Edwin Encarnacion Blue Jays 98 3.8% 14.1% 14.1% 1.0% .337 .403
Mike Trout Angels 107 4.7% 9.3% 19.0% 8.4% .333 .401
Josh Willingham Twins 107 5.4% 12.3% 17.6% 0.0% .314 .399
Andrew McCutchen Pirates 99 4.1% 10.1% 16.7% 0.0% .338 .385
Miguel Cabrera Tigers 107 4.7% 9.3% 13.6% 0.9% .304 .381
Jose Reyes Marlins 111 3.4% 7.1% 11.1% 6.3% .328 .381
Anthony Rizzo Cubs 100 4.1% 6.6% 12.6% 1.0% .325 .375
Billy Butler Royals 109 3.0% 9.7% 16.7% 0.9% .353 .375
Ryan Zimmerman Nationals 113 5.0% 9.0% 17.5% 0.0% .305 .373
Ben Zobrist Rays 109 2.4% 12.2% 16.1% 4.6% .334 .370
Ryan Braun Brewers 103 3.8% 8.9% 20.9% 4.9% .334 .370
Ryan Ludwick Reds 78 4.0% 6.9% 20.1% 0.4% .338 .361

Expected wOBA Laggards: Almost All July, Still
Here are the bottom-10 hitters over the last month by Expected wOBA:


Name Team PA xHR% xBB% xK% xSB% xXBABIP xWOBA
Brandon Inge Athletics 97 3.2% 5.2% 28.9% 0.1% .295 .286
Michael Bourn Braves 119 2.0% 8.3% 28.1% 5.0% .304 .296
Casey McGehee Pirates 90 2.9% 5.9% 22.5% 0.2% .286 .296
Eric Hosmer Royals 103 1.8% 8.9% 22.9% 2.9% .293 .297
Chris Davis Orioles 90 3.2% 7.5% 30.6% 0.2% .302 .297
Clint Barmes Pirates 74 2.4% 6.1% 16.6% 0.5% .279 .299
Mike Leake Reds 11 2.6% 7.7% 22.3% 1.6% .283 .300
Todd Frazier Reds 87 3.2% 7.1% 22.3% 0.2% .274 .301
Ramon Santiago Tigers 59 2.2% 8.7% 18.6% 0.7% .278 .301
Pablo Sandoval Giants 73 2.7% 7.2% 17.5% 0.5% .269 .301

Potential wOBA Risers, Maybe
Here are the 10 players whose Expected wOBAs most greatly exceeded their actual wOBAs during almost all July (minimum 25 PA):


Name Team PA BABIP xXBABIP wOBA xWOBA Diff
Andrelton Simmons Braves 29 .182 .287 .214 .314 .100
Tyler Flowers White Sox 36 .350 .317 .230 .311 .081
Peter Bourjos Angels 45 .258 .293 .232 .307 .075
Robert Andino Orioles 40 .207 .302 .249 .323 .074
Paul Janish Braves 57 .237 .299 .249 .315 .066
Brian Bogusevic Astros 70 .275 .301 .250 .312 .062
Rafael Furcal Cardinals 99 .272 .307 .275 .337 .062
Hunter Pence Phillies 90 .288 .311 .243 .305 .062
Chris Stewart Yankees 33 .200 .286 .256 .315 .059
Zack Cozart Reds 105 .228 .301 .265 .320 .055

Potential wOBA Fallers, Maybe
Here are the 10 players whose Expected wOBAs are most greatly exceeded by their actual wOBAs during almost all July (minimum 25 PA):


Name Team PA BABIP xXBABIP wOBA xWOBA Diff
David Freese Cardinals 84 .545 .326 .506 .356 -.150
Jesus Guzman Padres 39 .250 .288 .471 .337 -.134
Carlos Corporan Astros 28 .444 .304 .460 .329 -.131
Juan Francisco Braves 27 .417 .297 .458 .328 -.130
Michael McKenry Pirates 45 .375 .297 .453 .326 -.127
Mike Trout Angels 107 .409 .333 .525 .401 -.124
J.P. Arencibia Blue Jays 55 .306 .282 .451 .330 -.121
Jordany Valdespin Mets 48 .333 .297 .464 .343 -.121
Andrew McCutchen Pirates 99 .477 .338 .504 .385 -.119
Jason Kubel Diamondbacks 93 .325 .286 .458 .339 -.119

Complete Expected wOBA Leaderboard
Click this hyperlinked text to see the full Expected wOBA leaderboard for almost all July.

Today’s Notable Games
Arizona at Los Angeles NL | 15:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Shane Victorino (431 PA, 101 wRC+, .278 BABIP, 2.1 WAR) makes his debut as a Dodger, probably.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL.

Miami at Atlanta | 19:10 ET
Not only is the legitimately effective Ben Sheets (18.0 IP, 93 xFIP-, 0.6 WAR) pitching, but so is left-hander Wade LeBlanc, who makes his first start of the season. LeBlanc’s line out of the bullpen (15.2 IP, 113 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR) hasn’t set a world, let alone the world, on fire, but his strikeout-to-walk numbers have generally been above average at every level.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 4.3.

Note: the following Game Scores include the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment discussed in a recent edition of Daily Notes. Also note: the following table is entirely sortable.


Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Zach Britton* BAL 6 0 4 7 5 NYA Phil Hughes 13:05
Jake Peavy CHA 6 4 4 4 6 MIN Scott Diamond 13:10
Jordan Lyles HOU 5 5 4 7 7 MIL Michael Fiers 14:10
Jeff Karstens PIT 6 4 2 0 2 CHN Travis Wood 14:20
Patrick Corbin AZ 5 7 6 1 6 LAN Stephen Fife* 15:10
Alex Cobb TB 7 4 6 5 6 OAK Jarrod Parker 15:35
Vance Worley PHI 6 5 4 7 6 WAS Edwin Jackson 19:05
Rick Porcello DET 6 4 5 5 2 BOS Aaron Cook 19:10
Wade LeBlanc* MIA 7 3 6 8 9 ATL Ben Sheets* 19:10
Kip Wells SD 0 6 1 4 4 CIN Bronson Arroyo 19:10
Garrett Richards LAA 4 6 5 8 7 TEX Yu Darvish 20:05
Zach McAllister CLE 7 4 3 7 2 KC Luis Mendoza 20:10
Jake Westbrook STL 6 9 5 9 4 COL Drew Pomeranz 20:40
Carl. Villanueva TOR 5 7 3 4 3 SEA Blake Beavan 22:10
Jonathon Niese NYN 7 3 6 3 7 SF Matt Cain 22:15

To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.