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Daily Notes, With Resplendent Texas League Leaders

Posted By Carson Cistulli On September 14, 2012 @ 10:00 am In Daily Notes | 6 Comments

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards: Double-A Texas League
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards: Double-A Texas League
Regarding What Is SCOUT, First of All
SCOUT is a (likely absurd, admittedly unnecessary) metric designed by the author to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous.

The Offensive Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The offensive version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average — is essentially a version of wRC+, except using the three main defense-independent metrics (home-run, walk, and strikeout rates), all regressed duly*, as the inputs.

*By the method outlined here.

The Pitching Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The pitching version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention — is calculated using a version of kwERA, with regressed strikeout and walk rates as the relevant inputs.

Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is it allows one to compare the relative performances of players with markedly different sample sizes.

Regarding the Texas League, Its Regular Season
The Texas League’s regular season ended on September 3rd, it appears. As such, all following numbers are final for 2012.

Top Batters of the Texas League (Overall)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Double-A Texas League, as determined by the methodology explained above.


Player Team Age PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Mike Olt Rangers (AA) 23 420 6.7% 14.5% 24.0% 165
Cody Decker Padres (AA) 25 406 6.2% 13.3% 24.6% 154
Paul McAnulty Angels (AA) 31 170 4.3% 13.7% 18.2% 146
Oscar Taveras Cardinals (AA) 20 531 4.3% 7.9% 10.5% 145
Christopher Mcguiness Rangers (AA) 24 530 4.3% 13.0% 20.2% 141
Conner Crumbliss Athletics (AA) 25 605 1.7% 19.8% 16.2% 137
Jonathan Singleton Astros (AA) 20 555 3.8% 15.9% 23.6% 136
Jaff Decker Padres (AA) 22 190 1.8% 20.4% 19.5% 134
Johnny Whittleman Royals (AA) 25 375 4.0% 17.6% 29.1% 133
Nate Freiman Padres (AA) 25 581 4.1% 8.4% 16.4% 132

Top Batters of the Texas League (Aged 23 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Double-A Texas League who might still, because of their age relative to the level, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.


Player Team Age PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Mike Olt Rangers (AA) 23 420 6.7% 14.5% 24.0% 165
Oscar Taveras Cardinals (AA) 20 531 4.3% 7.9% 10.5% 145
Jonathan Singleton Astros (AA) 20 555 3.8% 15.9% 23.6% 136
Jaff Decker Padres (AA) 22 190 1.8% 20.4% 19.5% 134
Wil Myers Royals (AA) 21 152 5.4% 10.0% 27.6% 129
Greg Garcia Cardinals (AA) 22 504 2.0% 15.9% 16.3% 129
Jurickson Profar Rangers (AA) 19 562 2.5% 11.7% 14.1% 127
Corey Dickerson Rockies (AA) 23 289 4.4% 6.2% 17.6% 126
Jedd Gyorko Padres (AA) 23 149 3.1% 10.6% 18.1% 123
Christian Colon Royals (AA) 23 315 1.6% 9.8% 8.6% 121

Top Pitchers of the Texas League (Overall)
Here are the top-10 pitchers of the Double-A Texas League, as determined by the methodology explained above.


Player Team Age IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Robbie Erlin Padres (AA) 21 52.1 228 31.6% 7.4% 64
Steve Geltz Angels (AA) 24 25.1 95 31.9% 8.0% 65
Dan Straily Athletics (AA) 23 85.1 347 31.1% 7.2% 65
Will Harris Rockies (AA) 27 34.1 140 32.0% 8.4% 65
Jake Odorizzi Royals (AA) 22 38.0 152 30.9% 7.8% 67
Ryan Rodebaugh Rangers (AA) 23 51.2 207 30.0% 7.0% 67
Wilmer Font Rangers (AA) 22 15.0 62 30.9% 8.6% 70
Jeremy Mcbryde Padres (AA) 25 53.0 223 29.1% 7.8% 72
Daniel Stange Padres (AA) 26 53.2 228 28.1% 7.0% 73
Caleb Graham Angels (AA) 25 57.2 231 28.6% 7.9% 74

Top Pitchers of the Texas League (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the Double-A Texas League who made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.


Player Team Age IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Robbie Erlin Padres (AA) 21 52.1 228 31.6% 7.4% 64
Dan Straily Athletics (AA) 23 85.1 347 31.1% 7.2% 65
Jake Odorizzi Royals (AA) 22 38.0 152 30.9% 7.8% 67
A.J. Griffin Athletics (AA) 24 43.1 164 26.8% 7.1% 77
Andrew Cashner Padres (AA) 25 14.1 56 27.7% 8.0% 77
Justin Grimm Rangers (AA) 23 83.2 324 22.5% 6.0% 86
Cody Buckel Rangers (AA) 20 69.0 278 24.8% 8.3% 87
Nick Schmidt Rockies (AA) 26 82.0 331 22.1% 6.0% 88
Jarrett Grube Angels (AA) 30 45.1 181 22.1% 6.5% 89
Casey Kelly Padres (AA) 22 16.2 64 23.3% 7.9% 90

Three Notable Performances
• St. Louis outfielder Oscar Taveras finished in the top 10 among all (ca. 250) Texas League batters both in regressed home-run and regressed strikeout rate (that is, in lowest in strikeout rate). From what little I’ve seen of him, it’s actually possible that his contact skills are too good — which is to say, his ability to hit any sort of pitch might prevent him from working into more favorable counts and waiting on more hittable pitches.
• Rangers shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar was one of only two 19-year-olds to play in the entire Texas League this season, and the only one to compile as many as six plate appearances. Beyond that particular distinction, he also managed to post a decidedly above-average offensive season while playing what is generally regarded as an above-average shortstop, defensively. Profar’s first nine major-league plate appearances have done little to persuade his admirers than he’s anything less than the Future of Baseball: all three of his hits have gone for extra bases, including a home run in his first MLB at-bat.
• San Diego acquired left-hander Robbie Erlin — along with right-hander Joe Wieland — from Texas in exchange for reliever Mike Adams at the deadline last season (i.e. 2011). Wieland was entirely adequate in five major-league starts (27.2 IP, 106 xFIP-, 0.0 WAR) before having his season ended by Tommy John surgery, but Erlin appears to be something closer to dominant. In 11 starts at Double-A San Antonio this year, Erlin struck out just under a third of batters faced while walking only 6.1% of them in 52.1innings. Like Wieland, he experienced elbow problems — accounting for the low innings total — but, unlike Wieland, he was able to treat the injury with rest and rehabilitation. Upon his return, Erlin posted a 35:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 27 innings.

Other SCOUT Leaderboards
International League (Triple-A)
Pacific Coast League (Triple-A)
Eastern League (Double-A)
Southern League (Double-A)
California, Carolina, and Florida State Leagues Combined (High-A)
Midwest and Sally Leagues Combined (Class-A)
New York-Penn and Northwest Leagues Combined (Low-A)
Appalachian, Arizona, Gulf Coast, and Pioneer Leagues Combined (Rookie)

Today’s Notable Games
Tampa Bay at New York AL | 19:05 ET
Talented left-hander David Price (180.2 IP, 77 xFIP-, 4.1 WAR) faces other talented left-hander CC Sabathia (169.1 IP, 78 xFIP-, 3.7 WAR). Playoff-odds note, courtesy Cool Standings: New York, 86.3%; Tampa Bay, 26.9%.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

San Francisco at Arizona | 21:40 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Tonight’s starter for Arizona, left-hander Tyler Skaggs‘ first four major-league starts haven’t been what one might call an “overwhelming success.” To wit: 20.1 IP, 19.1% K, 10.1% BB, 30.0% GB, 4.65 SIERA, 133 xFIP-, 0.0 WAR.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 4.5.

Note: the following Game Scores include the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment discussed in a recent edition of Daily Notes. Also note: the following table is entirely sortable.


Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
James McDonald PIT 5 4 3 1 5 CHN Chris Rusin* 14:20
Justin Verlander DET 9 4 6 2 6 CLE Corey Kluber 19:05
David Price TB 10 5 9 6 9 NYA CC Sabathia 19:05
D. Matsuzaka BOS 3 5 1 5 1 TOR Aaron Laffey 19:07
Bronson Arroyo CIN 4 5 3 4 7 MIA Jacob Turner 19:10
Ross Detwiler WAS 5 7 5 6 9 ATL Kris Medlen 19:35
Cole Hamels PHI 9 4 5 4 7 HOU Edgar Gonzalez* 20:05
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA 5 4 4 7 8 TEX Yu Darvish 20:05
C.J. Wilson LAA 4 8 4 8 4 KC Bruce Chen 20:10
Chris Sale CHA 10 5 5 5 3 MIN Esmer. Vasquez* 20:10
Jon Niese NYN 7 2 5 9 6 MIL Mike Fiers 20:10
Matt Cain SF 6 3 3 6 3 AZ Tyler Skaggs 21:40
Joe Saunders BAL 3 2 4 7 6 OAK Tommy Milone 22:05
Tyler Chatwood COL 3 7 5 7 10 SD Andrew Cashner* 22:05
Joe Kelly STL 6 9 6 1 6 LAN Chris Capuano 22:10

To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.


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