UPDATE: With 314 ballots cast (see below), FanGraphs readers believe that the Rangers and Yankees will score a combined 10.46 runs in tonight’s game (7pm ET).
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
Brief Previews for Select Games
Here are brief previews for four of today’s games — each including the preferred television feed of FanGraphs readers, per the results of our offseason crowdsourcing project. (Information on probable pitchers from MLB.com.)
San Francisco at New York NL | 16:10 ET
• This is the closest thing to afternoon baseball today, and is the first game of a doubleheader between the Giants and Mets, following a rainout of yesterday’s scheduled game.
• Tim Lincecum, subject of much handwringing, starts for San Francisco against Miguel Batista.
• Regard, Lincecum’s defense-independent numbers: 13.2 IP, 23.2% K, 5.8% BB, 45.8% GB, 74 xFIP-.
• Regard, his actual overall numbers: 16 ER, 16 ER, 10.54 ERA, 303 ERA-.
• Regard, in case you haven’t previously regarded it, our most recent piece on Lincecum: History Suggests Tim Lincecum Might Be Just Fine. By Dave Cameron, duh.
MLB.TV Audio Feed: New York NL.
New York AL vs. Texas | 19:10 ET
• As of Sunday, New York and Texas accounted for the third- and second-best batting-plus-fielding team WARs in the majors — at 4.5 and 5.1, respectively.
• Leaders for New York: Robinson Cano (97 wRC+, .246 BABIP, 0.8 WAR) and Derek Jeter (171, .367, 0.8).
• Leaders for Texas: Josh Hamilton (199 wRC+, .404 BABIP, 1.1 WAR) and Ian Kinsler (171, .278, 1.0).
• Starting pitchers: CC Sabathia (19.1 IP, 73 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR) vs. Derek Holland (20.1 IP, 84 xFIP-, 0.6 WAR).
• For more on this game, draw your attention to our very important and shameless poll below.
MLB.TV Audio Feed: Texas.
Houston at Milwaukee | 20:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
• After Cole Hamels (1.90) and Gio Gonzalez (2.12), Zack Greinke currently features the league’s best xFIP (2.24) among qualified pitchers, owing to how he’s posted these rates: 27.5% K, 4.4% BB, 50.0% GB.
• Regarding his ERA, that’s a different story: as of Sunday, Greinke’s 5.09 ERA is 87th among the league’s 109 qualifiers.
• Actually, maybe story isn’t the precise word: of the five elements present in a typical narrative arc (exposition, rising action, climax, falling action, and revelation/catastrophe), noting that Greinke’s ERA is much higher than his xFIP accounts for either just one or zero.
• Opposing Greinke is Houston’s Lucas Harrell (17.2 IP, 114 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR).
• And also Lucas Harrell’s
ground-ball rate two-seam fastball, which he throws 32.4% of the time and is likely responsible for his 56.6% ground-ball rate.
MLB.TV Audio Feed: Houston.
Chicago AL at Oakland | 22:05 ET
• As of Sunday, tonight’s starters — Jake Peavy and Bartolo Colon — had the sixth- and fourth-best pitcher WARs, respectively, in the major leagues.
• As of Monday — I don’t know that information, because that’s tomorrow for me. Because I’m writing this on Sunday.
• In the meantime, here’s Peavy’s line through three starts: 19.2 IP, 28.4% K, 2.7% BB, 22.0% GB, 75 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR.
• And Colon’s, through four: 27.1 IP, 18.1% K, 1.9% BB, 42.9% GB, 84 xFIP-, 1.0 WAR.
• And here’s a Yoenis Cespedes Update: 62 PA, .255/.371/.529 (.310 BABIP), 155 wRC+, 0.8 WAR.
MLB.TV Audio Feed: Oakland.
Shameless Polling Action: Over/Under on Yankees-Rangers
The New York Yankees and Texas Rangers, who play at about 7pm ET, currently feature the two top offenses (per wRC+) in the majors. The starters for tonight’s game (CC Sabathia and Derek Holland) are also above average.
Knowing that American League teams are currently scoring just slightly more than 4.5 runs per game, what do you suppose will be the amount of total runs scored in tonight’s game?
Results will be published, as an update, at the top of this post, ca. 6pm ET.
Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Cleveland Radio
Recently, we released the results of our television broadcaster rankings — itself the product of reader crowdsourcing that started in late November. Now, FanGraphs is asking readers to rate the radio broadcast teams for all 30 major-league clubs (Click here for more on this project.)
Rate other teams: Washington / Toronto / Texas / Tampa Bay / Seattle / San Francisco / San Diego / St. Louis / Pittsburgh / Philadelphia / Oakland / New York (NL) / New York (AL) / Minnesota / Milwaukee / Miami / Los Angeles (NL) / Los Angeles (AL) / Kansas City / Houston / Detroit / Colorado.