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Daily Notes, With Some Expected wRC+ Leaderboards

Posted By Carson Cistulli On June 7, 2012 @ 10:57 am In Daily Graphings,Daily Notes | 8 Comments

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Expected wRC+ Leaderboards
2. Two Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Expected wRC+ Leaderboards
A Note on Expected wRC+
Last week in these electronic pages, I looked at what I called “Expected wRC+” for batters in May. Expected wRC+ is essentially a version of Bradley Woodrum’s Should Hit formula (itself more or less a FIP for hitters, but with BABIP included) but using regressed (as opposed to raw) home-run, walk, and strikeout rates as the inputs. Also, in this case, BABIP is replaced by expected BABIP (xBABIP), per the formula (adjusted for 2012 league averages) proposed by user slash12 at Beyond the Boxscore in 2009.

The idea here is to estimate something like a player’s true talent over the course of X plate appearances. Indeed, the methodology isn’t flawless: wRC+ is a park-adjusted stat, for example, while the inputs are expressly not park-adjusted. (And, for that reason, Expected wOBA might be a preferable alternative.)

Because today’s slate of games isn’t entirely riveting, I’ve summoned from inside my computer machine the following Expected wRC+ leader- and laggardboards. (Click here to see a spreadsheet for all 385 batters with more than 50 plate appearances.)

Expected wRC+ Leaders, 2012
Here are the leaders in Expected wRC+ (xRC+, in this case) for all batters with at least 50 plate appearances in 2012:


Name Team PA xHR% xBB% xK% xBABIP xRC+
Joey Votto Reds 236 3.6% 19.5% 18.2% .377 178
Josh Hamilton Rangers 235 7.6% 9.4% 20.4% .327 169
Matt Kemp Dodgers 144 5.3% 12.8% 20.7% .356 165
David Wright Mets 230 2.9% 16.1% 13.0% .332 150
Curtis Granderson Yankees 248 6.1% 12.1% 25.0% .319 147
Adam Dunn White Sox 245 6.5% 19.2% 36.7% .311 146
Lyle Overbay Diamondbacks 75 2.6% 10.7% 18.4% .382 145
Austin Kearns Marlins 54 3.1% 8.1% 19.8% .388 143
Paul Konerko White Sox 209 4.5% 11.0% 16.3% .313 139
David Ortiz Red Sox 239 4.9% 11.7% 13.4% .286 138

Notes
The presence of both Lyle Overbay and Austin Kearns on this list suggests that xBABIP itself could use some regression (although, by how much is a question I surely could not answer) — or at least that maybe 100 plate appearances represents a more sensible minimum than 50. Nos. 11 and 12 on this list will not surprise anyone, however: Ryan Braun (135 xRC+) and Joe Mauer (134 xRC+).

Expected wRC+ Laggards, 2012
Here are the bottom 10 hitters this season by Expected wRC+:


Name Team PA xHR% xBB% xK% xBABIP xRC+
Ryan Raburn Tigers 135 1.8% 6.7% 25.3% .207 31
Rick Ankiel Nationals 139 2.4% 7.0% 32.1% .233 39
Danny Valencia Twins 103 2.0% 5.0% 21.4% .213 39
Don Kelly Tigers 83 2.2% 9.8% 17.4% .164 40
Kurt Suzuki Athletics 183 1.0% 4.7% 19.1% .238 43
Bobby Wilson Angels 86 1.8% 7.7% 17.7% .196 44
Daric Barton Athletics 126 1.8% 12.6% 23.1% .192 45
Gaby Sanchez Marlins 131 1.8% 6.9% 17.8% .207 46
Chris Heisey Reds 146 1.7% 5.2% 21.8% .237 46
Chad Tracy Nationals 55 3.1% 8.0% 19.0% .176 47

Notes
Of note: four of these hitters (Raburn, Valencia, Wilson, and Sanchez) actually have higher Expected wRC+s than actual wRC+. Raburn has an 11 wRC+ in 135 plate appearances. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where he’s happy with that.

Potential wRC+ Risers, Maybe
Here are 10 players whose Expected wRC+s are greater than their actual wRC+s:


Name Team PA xHR% xBB% xK% xBABIP xRC+ wRC+ Diff
Endy Chavez Orioles 89 2.1% 5.6% 18.0% .295 86 -9 95
Chris Coghlan Marlins 89 2.1% 7.6% 15.3% .295 97 2 95
Eric Sogard Athletics 71 2.6% 7.3% 18.3% .312 104 18 86
Wilson Valdez Reds 51 2.1% 6.2% 19.5% .276 76 1 75
Marlon Byrd - – - 152 1.6% 4.5% 20.4% .341 94 19 75
Cesar Izturis Brewers 91 2.1% 6.0% 11.7% .307 104 33 71
Nate McLouth Pirates 62 2.0% 8.2% 23.4% .273 73 7 66
Kosuke Fukudome White Sox 51 2.1% 10.2% 18.9% .298 99 34 65
Xavier Nady Nationals 91 2.8% 7.5% 21.7% .296 93 29 64
Aaron Cunningham Indians 68 2.0% 9.0% 17.3% .308 101 38 63

Potential wRC+ Risers, Maybe (More than 100 Plate Appearances)
And because the above list is irksome in some real way, here’s a version of it, except using 100 plate appearances as the minimum plate-appearance threshold:


Name Team PA xHR% xBB% xK% xBABIP xRC+ wRC+ Diff
Marlon Byrd - – - 152 1.6% 4.5% 20.4% .341 94 19 75
Brent Morel White Sox 125 1.5% 6.6% 29.3% .311 68 13 55
Manny Burriss Giants 116 1.6% 8.0% 16.4% .302 93 38 55
Coco Crisp Athletics 124 1.5% 7.2% 13.4% .254 73 19 54
Andy Parrino Padres 106 2.0% 9.4% 25.1% .322 95 43 52
Ramon Santiago Tigers 100 2.1% 8.7% 13.8% .286 97 50 47
Geovany Soto Cubs 104 2.7% 9.0% 18.7% .273 91 44 47
Miguel Olivo Mariners 117 2.9% 4.4% 21.6% .311 92 46 46
Ryan Theriot Giants 108 1.7% 7.8% 11.4% .327 114 69 45
Ramon Hernandez Rockies 101 3.0% 6.6% 14.4% .277 98 59 39

Potential wRC+ Fallers, Maybe
Here are the 10 batters whose wRC+s most greatly exceed their Expected wRC+s:


Name Team PA xHR% xBB% xK% xBABIP xRC+ wRC+ Diff
Allen Craig Cardinals 81 4.2% 8.4% 19.5% .318 125 212 -87
Scott Hairston Mets 107 4.3% 7.3% 21.5% .253 90 162 -72
Chad Tracy Nationals 55 3.1% 8.0% 18.8% .176 48 116 -68
Mark Trumbo Angels 194 4.9% 7.2% 22.2% .294 114 180 -66
Quintin Berry Tigers 65 2.0% 7.6% 22.8% .306 87 146 -59
Josh Willingham Twins 223 4.3% 13.9% 22.9% .270 114 173 -59
Jonathan Lucroy Brewers 151 2.9% 5.5% 14.6% .304 105 164 -59
Mike Moustakas Royals 206 3.8% 7.8% 18.0% .211 72 131 -59
Jerry Hairston Dodgers 104 2.0% 8.5% 11.9% .272 94 152 -58
Laynce Nix Phillies 51 2.8% 8.7% 20.0% .313 107 165 -58

Notes
The aforementioned Austin Kearns is in 11th place on this list.

Two Notable Games
Texas at Oakland | 15:35 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Yu Darvish pitches for Texas. Status Update: 67.1 IP, 24.3% K, 12.6% BB, 47.0% GB, 3.87 SIERA, 92 xFIP-, 1.4 WAR.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

Tampa Bay at New York AL | 19:05 ET
The Yankees have taken the first two games of this series (box, box). David Price (73.2 IP, 82 xFIP-, 1.6 WAR) faces CC Sabathia (78.1 IP, 81 xFIP-, 1.4 WAR).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 4.9.

Note: the following Game Scores include the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment discussed in a recent edition of Daily Notes. Also note: the following table is entirely sortable.


Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Derek Lowe CLE 2 4 5 4 6 DET Casey Crosby* 13:05
Aaron Harang LAN 4 5 6 4 9 PHI Cole Hamels 13:05
R.A. Dickey NYN 10 1 7 5 5 WAS Chien-Ming Wang* 13:05
Matt Garza CHN 7 3 2 5 0 MIL Randy Wolf 14:10
Matt Cain SF 6 4 3 5 0 SD Jason Marquis 15:35
Yu Darvish TEX 6 10 4 2 4 OAK Brandon McCarthy 15:35
David Price TB 8 5 8 6 8 NYA CC Sabathia 19:05
Mike Minor ATL 5 7 5 4 3 MIA Mark Buehrle 19:10
Brian Matusz BAL 4 5 5 5 2 BOS Clay Buchholz 19:10
Kevin Correia PIT 0 2 3 4 6 CIN Mike Leake 19:10
Lance Lynn STL 7 10 6 5 6 HOU J.A. Happ 20:05
Henderson Alvarez TOR 4 6 5 6 6 CHA Jake Peavy 20:10

To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.


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