Daisuke Matsuzaka on Waivers: A Worthy Gamble

On Monday, the Boston Red Sox activated Daisuke Matsuzaka and sent David Ortiz to the DL. On Tuesday, they put Daisuke on waivers.

The recent Dodgers-Red Sox super-trade cleared the slate of expectations for Boston’s 2013 team, and it seems unlike they would be interested in giving Dice-K another chance while their minor leagues brim with newfound pitching talent. And though it is unwise to call the recent trade a salary dump — given the talent they got in return — it appears all postseasons bets are on hold for now. According to Paul Swydan, the Red Sox should have six open roster spots heading into next season, and one of those does not likely belong to the veteran, oft-injured Matsuzaka.

BUT: Despite having TJ surgery last May, despite hitting the DL with a back strain last month and despite being less than a month away from his 32nd birthday, Matsuzaka has a career-low walk rate and his best strikeout rate since 2008.

And he could be a worthy gamble for a team in contention.

It is important not to be excited about a soon-to-be 32-year-old who is averaging 12.5 starts per season over the last four years. Odds are, Matsuzaka will spend much of 2013 either in the minor leagues or bouncing back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation. Quite possibly, his continued injury concerns will result in a permanent trip to the bullpen — as soon as this year.

But TJ surgery has rescued more than one career, and the numbers Daisuke has put up in 2012 suggest there is still hope for him as a starter. He showed some improvement before hitting the DL last month — in fact, he is pitching now better than he has in the previous three seasons. Monday’s start offers a microcosm of that improvement.

Facing the Royals — who sport the lowest walk rate and lowest strikeout rate in the league — Daisuke pitched 7.0 innings while allowing only 1 unearned run with 6 strikeouts and 2 walks. The 2 walks were not great, but eliciting 6 strikeouts from Kansas City is something to marvel. What struck me most about Daisuke’s performance, however, was not so much the results, but his process.

Many pitchers coming from Japan’s NPB league take to nibbling around the strikezone. Guys like Yu Darvish may have bat-breaking stuff, but when it gets to two-strikes, they become zone adverse. This method works great in the NPB, where hitters are prohibitively aggressive, but the post-Moneyball MLB hitter does not have the same reaction.

So when I saw Dice-K throwing pitches in the zone with two strikes, I began to suspect more than his elbow ligaments had changed. Take a look at where Dice-K threw in all his two-strike counts in 2011:

Compare that to what he has done so far in the 2012 MLB season:

Not only does Daisuke have a career-high zone rating this season, but he is also attacking hitters with two strikes in a very un-Daisuke way.

Let us take for example Daisuke’s 9-pitch strikeout of Royals outfielder Jarrod Dyson. In that particular at bat, Daisuke threw 7 pitches in the zone and only 1 pitch — a well-placed slider down and in on the lefty Dyson — out of the zone:

This plate appearance is not typical of Daisuke — neither his old form or his seemingly new and improved form — but it shows a great, special example of how Daisuke is attacking the zone, even against a high-contact, low-walk guy like Dyson.

If we again look at two-strike pitches (meaning pitches thrown in an 0-2, 1-2, 2-2 and 3-2 counts) and then further limit our data to examine only pitches thrown in the textbook strike zone (which is smaller than the real-world strike zone), we find that Daisuke has thrown 43.0% (64 out of 149) of his 2-strike pitches in the zone. In 2011, that number — through almost the same amount of innings — was just 31.0% (57 out of 184).

In 2010, his last fullish season (wherein he had 153.2 IP), Daisuke had a two-strike zone rate of only 36.9% (275 out of 746). An improvement to 43.0% has resulted in a reduction of his walk rate to 7.8% — well beneath his 11% career numbers — while keeping his strikeout rate at a respectable 20.3%.

Daisuke’s numbers at first blush are not impressive. He has a 5.10 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 4.37 xFIP and a 4.07 SIERA. Of course, he also has a 1-inning start that ended with him on the DL with back stiffness. If we slice that one injured start from the ledger, we have a 3.72 ERA, 3.13 FIP and 3.96 xFIP.

Matsuzaka is earning $10 million in 2012 and is eligible for arbitration in 2013, but in all likelihood, he will be a free agent. According to Ben Nicholson-Smith, Matsuzaka is owed about $2 million through the remainder of the season. For an interested team, one has to think Daisuke would come cheap. And given his recent aggressive pitching, he could be a high-quality acquisition.




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Bradley writes for FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. Follow him on Twitter @BradleyWoodrum.


14 Responses to “Daisuke Matsuzaka on Waivers: A Worthy Gamble”

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  1. Spit Ball says:

    It’s definitely not out of the question that he could catch lightning in a bottle for a month, especially for a National league team where hitters are unfamiliar with him and he get’s to face the opposing teams pitcher twice or thrice a game. And the word is out the Dodgers are looking for a starting pitcher. Perhaps the Red Sox should just give him to the Dodgers and even assume the remainder of the salary as a gesture of kindness for all the Dodgers have done for the Red Sox over the last week. As a Red sox fan I would not be adverse to “gifting” Daisuke to the Dodgers in a show of gratitude for everything they did for us.

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    • Jonathan says:

      No, that would be idiotic from a baseball ops standpoint. The Dodgers don’t need a ‘thank you.’ If anything, Gonzalez was their ‘thank you’ for taking Beckett and Crawford.

      I don’t expect much for Matsuzaka. Either some salary relief or, preferably, Sox eat the entire remainder of salary and get a reclamation prospect or post-prospect (Think AAAA guy who doesn’t need a 40 man space right now) we could maybe use as a reliever in a couple years.

      Just a warm body for depth is entirely acceptable. There’s no sense in just giving to someone as a gift, that would be stupid and probably bordering on violating some CBA rule of some sort.

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      • Alex says:

        Agreed on most counts, but I would say that salary relief is now completely irrelevant to the team. The Red Sox are already off the hook for a whole lot more than the $2 mil that Dice-K is still owed for the season, and it’s not like they need to add acquisitions into the roster in order to try to compete this season. If they move him anywhere, I would expect to keep paying almost all of his salary in order to actually get a low level prospect in return. There’s really nothing else they could do with that cash for the rest of the year, might as well invest it in the chance for a future return.

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      • Spit Ball says:

        Yeah, I was totally being serious, of course they don’t give him away! I don’t even think they trade him unless they get something of some value back! A stuggling A ball prospect with upside or something of like. The Red Sox don’t need any AAAA players.

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  2. eric says:

    Maybe the Dodgers will take him and Lackey

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    • NBarnes says:

      I hear the Dodgers are trying to tool up their rotation in an attempt to pass the Giants. Matsuzaka and Lackey could be just what they need. There’s some money there, but they aren’t long term commitments. Truthfully, there’s some positive value there for the Dodgers, so it would be reasonable for the Red Sox to get some middling pitching prospects back, people with some issues but young and with live arms.

      That sounds fair to me, don’t you agree?

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      • Jonathan says:

        What? No. Man, you can have them. I don’t even think Colletti would do that drunk.You guys are willing to take on salary:

        Dodgers get: Matsuzaka, Lackey, whatever’s left on Matsuzaka’s contract, and a very sincerely written and heartfelt thank you card from me.

        Sox get: A pack of Dodger dogs and an Adrian Gonzalez jersey.

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      • Jonathan says:

        Besides, Lackey doesn’t help them in a pennant race this year, he’s still recovering from Tommy John surgery.

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  3. Dave S says:

    Pirates released Bedard today… maybe they’re gonna roll the Dice?

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  4. Adam W says:

    The Nats could be a fit…

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  5. Tom B says:

    This guy is not worth the uniform they would have to provide him with.

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  6. Mr Punch says:

    Matsuzaka should be worth something to someone. Apart from being demonstrably the best baseball player in the world and a former #1 prospect in the universe (jeez, if he were a lefty he’d be worth a fortune) he’s won games, big games (game 7 vs Cleveland) in the majors and seems to be throwing well now. He’s annoying to watch, but when he’s healthy he can pitch.

    Interesting that some think Dice-K has no value, but De La Rosa does — the latter has been a pro starter for six years and hasn’t reached 300 IP total. Yes, Gonzalez was the price of unloading the other three guys.

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  7. Jim says:

    “Matsuzaka is earning $10 million in 2012 and is eligible for arbitration in 2013, but in all likelihood, he will be a free agent.”

    Ehh, this is either badly worded or just not correct. Matsuzaka will have the full 6 years of service time at year’s end, as he originally signed a 6-year deal and couldn’t be optioned or outrighted to the minors, and he still accrued service time when injured.

    Thus, he will be eligible for free agency without question, and will not be under the contractual control of the Red Sox.

    Unless, of course, you were referring to free agent salary arbitration, perhaps? ;)

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  8. Outliarbaseball.com’s has Matsuzaka’s as the 82nd-ish best SP in baseball this year. With 150 rotation spots across both leagues, he’s sure to get a spot.

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