Damon Lands

It’s hard to believe that pitchers and catchers have already reported and Johnny Damon is just now reaching a deal. Scott Boras has finally managed to find a home for his client, and, unsurprisingly, that home will be in Detroit. Damon will receive $8 million for his services – a hefty sum compared to what the Yankees were reportedly offering, but peanuts compared to what he was hoping for.

Some say that Scott Boras hung him out to dry, but the truth is that a multi-year, $10+ million market simply wasn’t going to be there for a player like Damon. Teams have taken note of Damon’s poor arm, and his bat simply wasn’t good enough to be worth more than $10MM in a market that pays $3.5MM per win. CHONE projects him for 3.0 wins with what looks like a very questionable defensive projection of +10 R/150 G. Knocking that down to +2.5 – his career UZR/150 in LF and a tad higher than what his -9 UZR/150 in CF would suggest – leaves him at 2.3 WAR. That puts the deal at $3.5MM/WAR, or almost exactly market value.

Looking at the team side of the deal, Damon should be a decent fit. Between the three outfield spots, there are probably about 2100-2200 plate appearances available, leaving plenty of playing time for Damon, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Austin Jackson, and Ryan Raburn. This should be a decent outfield, as Ordonez and Damon are both above average players and Raburn is near average. Guillen should rebound and, as Dave showed, could be a sleeper this year. Jackson remains a question mark, but this outfield will provide some punch.

The problem is that even with Damon on board, this team is nowhere near a contender. Major middle infield and starting pitching issues look like too much to overcome, and both the Twins and White Sox look clearly better than the Tigers right now. As it stands, the Tigers will probably need some luck to clear .500, and their playoff chances, with or without Damon, look bleak.

When evaluating this deal, there’s one main question to be asked: are the roughly two wins provided by the Damon signing worth eight million dollars to the Tigers, even if they’re eventually irrelevant to this year’s playoffs? It’s hard to answer that question without knowing the details of the Tigers’ budget. Wins, even at the lower end of the curve, do correlate to ticket sales, and teams obviously need whatever revenue they can get. Detroit won’t be handcuffed down the road by this contract. As long as this deal isn’t the reason that Detroit is inactive in the international free agent market or passive in the draft, this deal can only improve their team, both in the sort term and the long term.