Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 07/21/14

12:02
Dan Szymborski: ZIP ZOP ZOOPITY BOP
12:02
Dan Szymborski: First off, our usual business.
12:03
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12:03
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12:04
Comment From Bret
Reports over the weekend that the Jays can’t take on any money in trades. On a scale of 1-10, how angry should Jays fans be?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: Assuming the reports are true, very.

12:05
Dan Szymborski: You should *never ever* go into the season with absolutely no room to increase your payroll.
12:06
Dan Szymborski: If your team absolutely is not willing to spend more than $100 million in a season, you better have put together a good team for $90 million.
12:06
Comment From Snoth
What do you make of Bryce Harper’s new stance? Big deal or noise?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Big deal. Lots of players tinker drastically with their stances.
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Ripken had like a billion stances.
12:07
Dan Szymborski: and some guys keep their stance fairly static, like Mickey Tettleton’s “bat kinda awkwardly dangling behind him” stance.
12:09
Comment From The Shovel Knight
More saves ROS – Giles or Boxberger?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Giles. He’s got the clearest path to saves – a Papelbon trade.
12:10
Comment From Salistar
Who gets Price? Cardinals, Dodgers, Mariners, mystery team????? We must know the unknowing!
12:10
Dan Szymborski: I still think the Mariners will give in and pull the trigger unless what the Rays *really* won’t drop below in a trade is truly crazy.
12:11
Comment From Chris
Odorizzi or Paxton? who do you like ROS factoring in K/9 & K/BB
12:11
Dan Szymborski: Odorizzi
12:11
Comment From Guest
The Nats are tied for the best record in the National League and have by far the best run differential in the NL and yet people still act as if they’re a disappointment. This despite losing Span, LaRoche, Zimmerman, Harper, Ramos, Gio and Fister to the DL, many of them for extended periods. I don’t get it. Explain
12:11
Dan Szymborski: Because people are dumb? That’s the best explanation I can think of.
12:12
Comment From Ron Swanson

Need two of three ROS and Ventura makes me feel older than my years lately…HELP. Ventura, Rubby De La Rosa, or Hahn…for the love of all that is good and real…halp!

12:13
Dan Szymborski: Stil ventura
12:13
Comment From Snoth
Traded Gregory Polanco and Aaron Hill for Harper and Neil Walker. Did I swindle the guy?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Excellent trade – Polanco’s more valuable in real life than fantasy right now.
12:13
Comment From Reed
True or false: Luhnow is fired before the Astros have a .500 (OR BETTER) season?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Leaning towards false.
12:13
Comment From Jeet
Would you trade away George Springer and Latos for Jason Hammel and Billy Hamilton in a redraft league?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: I would *really* need SBs.
12:14
Comment From Sirras One
Today is the 10th anniversary of David Wright’s first MLB game. After his career ends, how do you think DW is remembered?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: A combination of his stats and video/photos from his most noted plays.
12:14
Dan Szymborski: cheating?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: A good 3B, though below Hall of Fame quality.
12:14
Comment From The Shovel Knight
Theoretically, Justin Upton is just 26 and his prime should be in front of him. But has his best fantasy season already happened back in 2011?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Players that develop early frequently don’t have the really obvious prime peak.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: While it’s a general rule that players will most frequently have their best years int he 26-29 age range, you shouldn’t over-rely on that.
12:16
Comment From IAMNOTANNOYED
In future, please have the sound off as the default. It’s really annoying having to turn it off.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: I have no control over that. You might as well ask me to decrease your federal taxes.
12:16
Comment From Kevin
What kind of pitcher do you see Zach Wheeler turning into down the road? Good #2, or more mid rotation kind of guy. Figure he continues to struggle with his command ROS?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: I think a good #2 more likely than a lower rotation guy.
12:17
Comment From Candy LaChance
Do you buy ZiPS’ sour projections for Trevor Bauer (negative WAR for ROS; 5+ ERA) or do you think it’s missing some fundamental improvement by a young player?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: It’s possibly the latter, but you’d be surprised how often the projection system turns out better with stuff me and you think are fundamental changes.
12:18
Comment From glen
updated ROS zips for street available yet?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: ROS ZiPS are updated by FanGraphs every morning.
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Can’t tell you what time, just that it’s definitely hours before I wake up
12:19
Comment From Johnny Adams
is choo ever going to perform at 100% this year? seems he’s always nursing something.
12:20
Dan Szymborski: Probalby not 100% – his ankle has been a continual worry.
12:20
Dan Szymborski: But people *did* expect too much from Choo – he’s likely already had his best season and he’s reaching the ages at which nagging injuries become the norm, not the exception.
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Frankly, if his ankle is in fact the primary reason he’s been awful for 2 months now, the Rangers should shut him down for the year.
12:21
Comment From Evan
Do the Cardinals make a move for Kurt Suzuki? If so, what’s the cost?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: I tend to think they won’t. Molina strikes me as the more likely rumor
12:23
Comment From gooby
why is there a gap between RoS and updated projections for some pitchers? e.g. Yu Darvish has 3.7 WAR and is projected for 2.1 RoS, but his updated full season projection is 6.2 WAR. Where does the extra 0.4 come from?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Maybe FanGraphs is accidentally using different factors for the WAR determination of ROS than total? I don’t give FG that part — the ZiPS in-season tool doesn’t actually do the WAR — that’s calculated on the FG side.
12:24
Comment From Jim
The answer is Coolidge, the answer always is Coolidge.
12:24
Comment From gooby
who gets fired first: GMDM or Luhnow
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Moore probably.
12:25
Comment From Rob
You buying Arrieta’s breakout or siding with ZiPS on this one?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I’m torn here. I was predicting Arrieta to break out and crush ZiPS for *years* and he never did
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I’m probably more optimistic than ZiPS still, but I think he’s closer to ZiPS than his current ERA in ability
12:26
Comment From Robin Ventura
Think Matt Lindstrom gets the closer’s gig back shortly upon returning?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: It’s likely, but I owuldn’t be shocked if he goes to a team needing bullpen depth in August.
12:26
Comment From Smokey
Give Bogaerts to get Grienke good deal in a keeper? Think im goin to keep Rizzo for a 9th and Nolan for a 22 round pick anyway.
12:26
Dan Szymborski: I like Bogaerts, but I’d probably take Greinke
12:27
Comment From HBG
Brady Aiken situation: does it (a) lead to serious reform of the flawed draft system, or (b) this: http://upload.wikimedia.org…
12:27
Dan Szymborski: I’m not a fan of the way the Astros played it. Yeah, they get the #2 next year, but there’s no guarantee that pick will be as willing as Aiken to go under slot. They lost NIx as a result.
12:28
Dan Szymborski: IF the $5 million final offer was real, they essentially squabbled over pocket money. $1.5 million is nothing in baseball.
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Players will generally go to the best bidder, but the belief that the team reneged on a contract is something that could bite them in the back later
12:29
Dan Szymborski: See the way Baltimore handled Mussina’s last contract with the team – it made any chance of retaining him in FA much lower
12:30
Comment From Mayon Doore
David Freese is having a good year and Peter Bourjos can’t hit. Why did the Cardinals make that deal again?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: David Freese is having a good year?
12:31
Comment From Rob
Cubs make the playoffs again in 20__?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: fart
12:31
Comment From Bryce Harpers uncle
What do you make of Stanton’s comments that the HR Derby got him back on track? It usually screws guys up more than it helps them, right?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: Not terribly meaningful.
12:32
Comment From Reds fan
Latos’ velo has been down through his first 5 starts, but was down in his 2013 early starts too. How concerned are you?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: I’m not very concerned yet. It’s not uncommon for pitchers to not throw all-out coming off injury.
12:32
Dan Szymborski: If his velocity’s still the same at the end of the year, then there’s some concern.
12:32
Comment From baltic fox
ZIPs has some relatively decent projections for Salazar ROS. The computer says his walk rate will be lower than it has been since he’s been demoted to the minors. Do minor league batters, especially over matched ones (Salazar hitting 98mph again), tend to take more pitches than ML batters?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: No, it’s just that hsi performance this year is a limited sample size
12:33
Comment From Jay
Any contenders who you think would be best off standing pat?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Probably the Orioles, considering that their target seems to be A.J. Burnett for no particular reason.
12:33
Comment From Redbeard
What direction do Pirates go at deadline? What kind of prospects should they make available?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: I suspect the Pirates make a move or two around the edges, but like the previous two years, nothing groundbreaking.
12:34
Comment From Jim
Is Tanner Roark best number 5 in the league?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: Depends. Would it be trolling if I called Justin Verlander the best number 5 starter?
12:34
Comment From Prince
Would you ever keep a pitcher if you only get two?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Keepers? Pizzas? Assuming keeper, I probably wouldn’t. Except maybe Kershaw if the offensive keepers were lower quality.
12:35
Comment From Tucker
Chase Headley’s clearly going to be traded if he stays healthy. Where does he wind up?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: As much as it annoys me, I think he ends up a Yankee
12:36
Comment From Tube
Thoughts on CJ Cron? Will this demotion last long?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: It’s not expected too – I’m pretty sure the Angels wanted to send down a reliever, but the bullpen’s pitched a lot of innings recently
12:37
Dan Szymborski: Either way, he’ll be back up for the homestretch for sure
12:37
Comment From Walter
Cargo’s return creates a good problem. How do you rank Harper, Cargo, Heyward & Puig for ROS?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: I’m assuming this is a ZiPS quesiton.
12:38
Dan Szymborski: In fantasy OF rankings, ZiPS has Harper 11 (there’s some short-term risk after all), Puig 4, Heyward 36, and Cargo 9 the rest of the season.
12:39
Dan Szymborski: That’s in 4×4
12:39
Comment From PieTraynee
Is Charlie Morton better than a good number three pitcher at this point in time?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: I probably wouldn’t say that. I still think of him as a mid-rotation guy.
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Solid, but not really an ace type
12:40
Comment From TKDC
Even Brian McCann thinks Colby Lewis is ridiculous, right?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Colby Lewis isn’t just wearing clownshoes, he’s driving the clown car into clown city.
12:41
Comment From LarryA
What are you expecting out of Votto this year? Over under 50ABs?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Over – I think Reds are close enough in September that they won’t fool around and delay bringing him back longer than they need to
12:41
Comment From The Shovel Knight
I’m in 1st right now, with 2 teams in striking distance. We can keep players forever with no cost. What kind of return should I get for Bryant and/or Buxton? I’m understandably hesitant to move either of them…
12:41
Dan Szymborski: An insane one.
12:41
Comment From Kate Upton
Piggybacking off of the other J-Up question – should BJ Upton’s career dropping off have any effect on our predictive analysis of Justin’s future?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: No.
12:42
Comment From Guest
What do you make of Jake Odorizzi? -His pitches rate slightly below avg and his fastball is so-so, so what gives?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: He’s OK, but I’ve never been a massive believer. But he’s in a good environment.
12:42
Comment From John
should the Royals be buyers or sellers?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Buyers, but the longer they don’t buy, they should be more likely sellers.
12:43
Comment From Dewey
Danks ROS and beyond? Seems like his shoulder recovery is in the rear view mirror now.
12:43
Dan Szymborski: An insane one.
12:43
Dan Szymborski: An insane one.
12:43
Dan Szymborski: Meh. I’d always be cautious at relegating a pitcher injury into the rear view mirror that quickly. Especially as he hasn’t really been *that* good.
12:44
Comment From ar
if street was worth what the padres got for him, then paplebon is worth _____________
12:44
Dan Szymborski: dingleberries
12:44
Comment From Randy
While FG does a great job using average projected performance for their playoff probabilities has their been any thought to defining likelihood that a team will reach certain win totals? i.e. if Rays play at 60% of projected performance instead of mean what will their win total look like?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: That’s a question for D-Cam or Apples. I’m not involved in that part.
12:45
Comment From SMC
Coolidge would simply stare deep into Adams’ soul, wordlessly, until Adams, transfixed, spontaneously vaporized.
12:45
Comment From Kenny
Carlos Contreras has switched between the bullpen and starting in the minors. Currently he is in the pen in the majors. Is this temporary or have the reds made a permanent move to relief for him. Nasty stuff BTW!
12:46
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Reds have really decided long-term.
12:46
Comment From Dave
Been watching any of the Dota 2 tourny? Never played it myself but it certainly looks fun to play (despite all the horror stories about the elitist community). Hard to believe that a prizepot for a game is $10m.
12:46
Dan Szymborski: Dota2’s not really my thing. I didn’t find it enough fun to invest the time to be good at it.
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Too much of the game is simply stalling and making sure you have the final hit on creeps, which I don’t find very interesting.
12:47
Dan Szymborski: More interested in competitive FPS and card games.
12:48
Comment From Kevin
What the heck is going on with Cameron Maybin? He has 1 HR and 3 SB’s in 185 PA’s this year. Has he had his last 20 SB year or are the Pads just being overly cautious in not running him for fear of injury? Seems like his offensive profile is pretty deficient if he’s not running.
12:48
Dan Szymborski: They’re being very careful with him. There’s no reason at this point, to try to eke out every last bit of Maybin’s value.
12:49
Comment From alex
First to get traded, Soria, Pap, or Cisek?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Soria I think.
12:49
Comment From chris
Do you have much hope for Choo ROS? If you’re were just slotting him in at UT would you consider cutting him for either Khris Davis or Napoli?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a lot of hope for choo in a redraft. The only exception is if you’re in an OBP league, in which case there’s more of an argument for short-term patience
12:50
Comment From Ben Cherington
7.5 games. That’s not THAT bad…right?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: The season’s over. The Red Sox just aren’t that good. 7.5 doesn’t sound like a big deal, but essentially, on an annualized basis, the Sox need to be 20 games better/162 than the O’s *and* 8 games better/162 than the Blue Jays *and* Yankees.
12:52
Comment From Guest
Hearthstone cards?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Oh, I didn’t post any yet? Well, I put together some Canadian cards to get good value with the Keri card (he gets a bonus for Canadians on the board).
12:53
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12:54
Comment From PJ
Do you consider yourself to have the best last name of all the fangraphs writers?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Technically, I haven’t written anything for FanGraphs! But I at least have the best name in scrabble, I think.
12:54
Comment From Tucker
Do projections of minor leaguers take park factors into consideration?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:55
Comment From San Dzymborski
Hey Dan, San here. Do you trade away Raul A. Mondesi for Stephen Piscotty in a dynasty?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: That’s a tough one. At this point, I personally like Mondesi’s upside – he’s not playing well this year, but he’s *extremely* young
12:55
Comment From Tom
Is Taveras alone enough for Price? Or would the Cards need to throw in a pitcher?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: I probably wouldn’t offer more, but the Cards may have to if they want him.
12:57
Comment From Guest
Eno tweeted a few weeks ago that Gausman needs a cutter. Do you agree? Watching his bad starts, it seems like he could really use another pitch (since he seems to avoid throwing the slider).
12:57
Dan Szymborski: I think he could get similar results by using the slider more.
12:57
Comment From john
$1.5 million is not nothing in the current draft system, however. thats a big deal
12:58
Dan Szymborski: But in this case, the 1.5 million prevented them from having the cap room to get another player
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Remember, Aiken was taking *under* slot
12:58
Dan Szymborski: so to not pay Aiken 1.5 million more, they lost Aiken’s slot savings.
12:59
Comment From Rob
ZiPS’s most undervalued and overvalued players are _______ and ______, respectively.
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Tyroil Smoochie-Wallace and Quiznatodd Bidness.
1:00
Comment From Rob
Excited for the release of Naxx tomorrow?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: I am! Game needs more cards, though really needs a full expansion.
1:00
Comment From Steve Harveys Missing Afro
Joey Gallo is now striking out 44% of the time in AA. What are the odds of him even being a major league regular for more than 4 years?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Let’s not forget, he’s *20*
1:01
Comment From dbet
Think the cubs will win their division in the next 5 years?
1:01
Comment From dbet
I got 50 riding on it
1:01
Dan Szymborski: It’s a definite possibility
1:03
Dan Szymborski: If, say, their yearly playoff odds are just 5%, 8%, 12%, 15%, 20% the next 5 years, you’re already at 50/50
1:03
Dan Szymborski: errr division odds
1:04
Comment From T$
earlier in the year ZiPS projected Marcus Stroman for a 1.46 HR/9, and still pegs him at 1.35 going forward. What factors would lead a projection system to regress performance not only towards the mean but beyond it, especially since Stroman hasn’t been homer-prone in the minors?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: There’s a huge translation penalty from homer rate in minors to majors
1:05
Comment From Addison Russells Paradox
How do you model the effect of age upon pitchers? Zimmerman has shown for SP’s that FIP increases by .8 between age 28 and 33. Does this imply that a 28 year old today (e.g., C. Kluber) should be expected, on average, to add .16 to his ERA each year over the next five?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Essentially, pitchers don’t really have an aging curve the way batters do
1:05
Dan Szymborski: (Birnbaum had a paper on this a few years ago that I can’t think of the URL right now but a google search should find it)
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Essentially if you have a pitcher whose pitching well, the injury factor means that you should always expect them to be not as good in the future.
1:06
Dan Szymborski: who’s
1:06
Dan Szymborski: sorry
1:06
Comment From Gila Monster
Agree or disagree: It is borderline criminal that Dave Cameron didn’t include Gerrit Cole on his trade value list,
1:06
Dan Szymborski: While I am not a lawyer, I am unaware of any laws that would lead one to this conclusion
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Maybe defamation, but Cole is a public figure and you’d have to show that Cammy had actual malice.
1:07
Comment From john
Aiken isnt even garuanteed to ever get a $5 offer again. Everyone blames the Astros. The kid was offered $5 MILLION DOLLARS. And everyone on the internet sits and pretends its nothing. Most prospects don’t make it and pitching prospects especially carry extraordinary risk. Aiken is the bad guy here.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Yes, $5 million *is* nothing, in baseball terms.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: There’s no extraordinary risk involved.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: If Aiken was a FA, he’d get *more* than that.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: $5 million gets you two years of SKIP SCHUMAKER
1:09
Dan Szymborski: It $5 million was an extraordinary risk, out of line with the risks, Aiken would receive less on the open market. Which absolutely zero people believe is true.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: The only reason the Astros even had the ability to give Aiken 5 or 6.5 million for his services is that they’re the only team Aiken was allowed to negotiate with.
1:09
Comment From T. Bear
Did most pundits undervalue the O’s statistically top-ranked defense (for two years) when measuring them as an average club?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Possibly.
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Hard without going into specifics
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Specific statements.
1:10
Comment From Daniel
What’s happening with Trout’s defense?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Defensive numbers are quite volatile – you shouldn’t care one bit about the ebb and flow.
1:11
Dan Szymborski: In the long-term, Trout’s most likely
1:11
Dan Szymborski: an above-averageish centerfielder. Not a problem and not a real Gold Glover.
1:12
Comment From Answer the D*m Question
Why did they bother calling up Mookie to play once every 4 games, then send him down; meanwhile they keep playing Bradley (can’t hit), and Nava who is struggling.
1:12
Dan Szymborski: If you haven’t noticed, Bradley’s been hitting quite well lately. But overall, I’m not pleased with Boston’s roster management this year.
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Bogaerts should be at short, Betts and Bradley *both* playing, and the more marginal players that aren’t part of the long-term future should be wearing different logos
1:13
Comment From Rob
My favorite way to fill in the blanks is _______?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: For those confused, I have a policy that fill-in-the-blanks questions — the lowest form of question — will be answered as if I’m a 7-year-old doing Mad Libs.
1:15
Comment From Mookie The Wookie
Have we been over rating Harper? I know the bust rate on most every prospect is over 50%. What was Harper’s bust rate? Do we need to correct our expectations for him?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: One, prospect isn’t binary – there are levels of prospect.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: And Harper’s *already* a successful major leaguer. He has like 1200 PA of >120 OPS+ through his age 21 season so far.
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Harper can’t be a busted prospect – he’s no longer a prospect at this point. He can only be a busted major leaguer, of the Carlos Baerga variety.
1:17
Comment From kris
Susan Slusser saying Nick Franklin is a top target for the A’s… thoughts?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard they like him from a couple good sources (perhaps overlapping Slusser), but I suspect it woulnd’t happen
1:18
Comment From Edgar For The Hall
Everyone keeps saying that Aiken would get more than $5 million on the open market. Isn’t it true that all the top picks would get more than slot on the open market?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: True, but I’m talking as a whole, in the context of “extraordinary risk”
1:18
Dan Szymborski: The slot system *removes* any extraordinary risk.
1:19
Dan Szymborski: If you can get something in a constrained market for much less than that same thing in an open market, by definition you’re not getting an extraordinary risk.
1:19
Dan Szymborski: OK, a few more and then time to go. Last chance for any of the weirder, random questions.
1:20
Comment From john
From your own website: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
1:20
Dan Szymborski: ESPN?
1:20
Dan Szymborski: (sorry
1:20
Dan Szymborski: How does that chart correspond with Harper having a 50% chance of being a bust?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: If you had Bryce Harper out of the top 100, more akin to a “B” grade prospect, I’m guessing your top prospect list is very underperforming.
1:22
Dan Szymborski: That linked chart only has the top 10 hitting prospects at 10% bust (this will vary based on definitions), which is a far cry from 50% for Bryce Harper.
1:22
Comment From john
pithcing prospects carry much higher risk than position prospects, on top of that there was an anomaly in the medical review. Aiken is no slam dunk.
1:22
Dan Szymborski: They do carry higher risk. But it’s a system in which there’s no chance of taking an extraordinary risk.
1:23
Dan Szymborski: In the big picture, they’re getting these risky prospects for pennies on the dollar. If you’re paying pennies on the dollar, it doens’t matter if they’re only “worth” quarters on the dollar.
1:24
Comment From Matt
Next time I do poorly in a class,show up late work, or do something stupid, I can use the “But I’m only 21” like we do for baseball players.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Peak is different!
1:25
Comment From john
and its a signing bonus – he still gets paid when he reaches the majors and performs…
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Minimum for 3 years and then suppressed for another 3 years, none of which they don’t have to pay.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Your argument makes little sense – the system is designed to remove any possibility of an extraordinary risk.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: $5 million is absolutely jack shit in baseball.
1:26
Comment From Matt
Extraordinary Risk would be signing Harper for $75M straight out of high school
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Yes.
1:26
Dan Szymborski: And that’s not the system they’re in.
1:27
Comment From Guest
Couldn’t they have paid Nix anyway and just eaten a fairly small penalty?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Without signing Aiken, giving Nix the 1.5 would have caused them to exceed their limit by more than 15%. They’d forfeit their next two first rounders.
1:28
Comment From john
so a player whose medicals suggest an anomaly in his pitching elbow should still be given whatever he wants because there is no risk?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Whatever he wants would have been a helluva lot more than what the Astros were offering. And what he would have gotten if teams could bid on him would have been a helluva lot more.
1:29
Comment From The Shovel Knight
I’m legitimately confused on how john isn’t getting this….
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Based on studies, some combination of nature and nurture.
1:30
Comment From THE average sports fan
My question is do you think Aiken ever does better than $5 mil bonus?
1:30
Dan Szymborski: Probably not, but Aiken making a poor decision and the Astros making a poor decision are not mutually exclusive.
1:30
Comment From Tony
Isn’t it possible that Nix wins a grievance versus the Astros and the Astros lose their first two picks anyways?
1:30
Dan Szymborski: While it’s in the realm of possibility, I don’t think it’s particularly likely.
1:31
Comment From Tony
With the recent catastrophe that is the Houston Astros rebuild, how good do the Cubs and their rebuild look currently?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: In fairness, the Cubs started from a higher point. The Cubs were a mess before the rebuild, but Ed Wade’s regime left the Astros looking like the baseball equivalent of Europe in summer of 1945.
1:32
Comment From john
I am just trying to understand what society we live in when $5 million is considered “Nothing.” There is no way he ever tops that.
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Umm, a society that understands that different amounts mean different things in different contexts?
1:33
Dan Szymborski: I would not buy a sandwich for $5 million. Time-Warner would not sell me the entire company for $5 million. It only takes a room temperature IQ to be able to figure out why.
1:33
Dan Szymborski: Fact is, $5 million is peanuts in baseball.
1:33
Comment From ar
john.. say the elbow injury cut aiken’s value in half. the point is the astros are STILL getting 25 million dollars of surplus value instead of 55 or whatever.
1:33
Comment From Tucker
I’m now convinced that john has become multiple people who are now trolling
1:35
Comment From Dr. Met
To person who wanted volume off, be glad that there was no warbling yet as was the case last year!
1:35
Dan Szymborski: Watch out, I still have all the audio clips from last year’s music contest!
1:36
Comment From THE average sports fan
Are the Rangers actually the worst team in MLB?
1:36
Dan Szymborski: With their current roster, it’s very likely. It’s a mess at the moment. Not when most are healthy.
1:36
Comment From Aiken for Love
Welcome to the Brady Aiken hour on Fangraphs, brought to you by the Astros, here’s your host: John!
1:36
Dan Szymborski: Hey, we’re in overtime here! The rules are more lax once we hit 1 PM.
1:36
Comment From Tony
What should I do with my dust in hearthstone? Do I save it for a legendary, or use it on rates and epics?
1:37
Dan Szymborski: Depends on whether you have an legendaries right now.
1:37
Comment From Tony
I have two, but they are Millhouse and Illiad so I essentially have none.
1:37
Dan Szymborski: Ouch, Millhouse Manastrom is horrendous.
1:37
Comment From dbet
Make Legendaries because you’ll open epics more often in packs.
1:38
Dan Szymborski: Yeah. At the very least, you probably want Cairne, Ragnaros, Pagle, Ysera, arguably Tinkmaster, and depending on your classes, a few of those useful ones
1:39
Comment From Reggie
U think EY Jr. gets a full time gig next year or will he continue to be a part-timer? I have him at $2 in a keeper league wondering if I should move him.
1:39
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ smostly likely a role player
1:39
Comment From JW
Fun thought re: Aiken and a grievance. He might well lack standing, he’s not a member of the bargaining unit until he joins MLBPA. If I was Astro’s lawyer, that would be my very first argument.
1:39
Comment From JW
(same point re: standing for Nix, unfortunately)
1:39
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that’s a big hurdle. Drew actually ran into that hurdle.
1:40
Dan Szymborski: The arbitrator at the time ruled that given Drew wasn’t a member of the MLBPA, his rights weren’t subject to arbitration
1:40
Dan Szymborski: And remember, draftees can’t sign major league contract anymore, so without a possible major league contract, the MLBPA has less of an argument for being involved
1:41
Comment From The Shovel Knight
The A’s have to keep Vogt in the lineup even after Reddick comes back, right?
1:41
Dan Szymborski: They definitely need to find a way.
1:41
Comment From Sadwick
john, it’s not that $5 million is nothing, it’s that $5 million is nothing, or close enough to it, for the Astros organization. The idea that a bad medical report should cut value is valid, the idea that teams should manage risk is valid, but the amount of risk reduction they would receive by dropping from $6.5 to $5 million is so negligible that having that difference cost you two draft signings is ludicrous.
1:41
Comment From Pee Wee
Is Brady Aiken related to Clay and that’s why he wouldn’t take a pay cut? The second fiddle syndrome?
1:41
Dan Szymborski: I don’t *think* they’re related!
1:42
Comment From Malone
Will the presidents brawl be concluded before Book 7 of Game of Thrones is finished?
1:42
Dan Szymborski: Absolutely.
1:42
Dan Szymborski: George R.R. Martin apparently writes about 3 words a day.
1:43
Dan Szymborski: “Tyrion grabbed the wine” OK, that’s a week’s work done!
1:43
Comment From chris
Is this the beginning of decline for Jay Bruce or is just injury fallout?
1:43
Dan Szymborski: I’m inclined to give him some rope due to injuries
1:43
Comment From Mr. Crowley
So… Tyrion’s still alive?!
1:43
Dan Szymborski: I’m not confirming or denying anything.
1:44
Comment From Christopher Guest
I’m confused by LOB%. Uehara (and Street) currently has a 100% LOB%, but this is from the 7/10 gamelog vs. the Cubs.

Rizzo singled to center.
Castro doubled to left. Rizzo advanced to 3B.
Valbuena hit a sacrifice fly to right. Rizzo scored. Castro advanced to 3B.
Castillo flied out to second.
Lake struck out swinging.

Castro is stranded on 3B.

The LOB% formula seems over-engineered. (H+BB+HBP-R)/(H+BB+HBP-(1.4*HR)). Why 1.4*HR?

1:45
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’ve never really delved into FG’s LOB% that deeply, so just leaving the observation!
1:45
Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to leave for another week!
1:45
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining us (I have a cat here too) for another week of chat fun!
1:46
Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, projections and chats here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.
1:46
Dan Szymborski: (Also DSzymborski on Steam and Zim 1236 on Hearthstone if you want to play some games)
1:46
Dan Szymborski: (those are two of my most asked questions even though I answer them a lot already)


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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Anthony
Guest
Anthony
1 year 11 months ago

Should I be worried about Polanco’s recent slump? Or Do I stick it out with the young talented outfielder? 10-team mixed league.

Psy Jung
Guest
Psy Jung
1 year 11 months ago

Wont’t be around for the chat so I’m asking this here: earlier in the year ZiPS projected Marcus Stroman for a 1.46 HR/9, and still pegs him at 1.35 going forward. What factors would lead a projection system to regress performance not only towards the mean but beyond it, especially since Stroman hasn’t been homer-prone in the minors?

Psy Jung
Guest
Psy Jung
1 year 11 months ago

Thanks dude!

tharaskal
Member
tharaskal
1 year 11 months ago

What kind of hitter should I get In trade for Gallo in a keeper league?

Alex
Guest
Alex
1 year 11 months ago

Why is the chat recap so messed up?

Alex
Guest
Alex
1 year 11 months ago

And now it’s not. Weird

Wa-hoo?
Guest
Wa-hoo?
1 year 11 months ago

Tim Horton

Zach
Guest
Zach
1 year 11 months ago

Once again Dan proves to be a idiot.

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