Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/14/13

11:58
Dan Szymborski: It is time for the magic* to start.

* Dan Szymborski Evil Enterprises insists that no magic is used in the making of this chat.

11:59
Dan Szymborski: And heeeeere come the pretzels!
11:59
Dan Szymborski: (There’s a lag between when I make first comment and it shows live readers)
11:59
Comment From JAC
Assuming the Dodgers stand pat (I’m sure they won’t), what’s their 2014 win projection?
11:59
Dan Szymborski: 87? Pretty speculative at this point! I haven’t run 2014 projections even.
12:00
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Now that Evil Enterprises is up and running, will the Dan Szymborski Torture Basement be available in stores?

12:00
Dan Szymborski: How do you market a basement in stores? I think a book with advice would be more useful.
12:01
Dan Szymborski: Weird – live readers is about a 10th of what it usually is. I seem to have lost 90% of my readership. Just like Heroes Season 2!
12:01
Comment From Shark Mapiro
What types of changes do you think the Indians could make to their lineup next season?
12:01
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re going to have an aggressive season, but they’ll fill in some holes.
12:01
Comment From Bkgeneral
Who do you think Reds should hire for new manager?
12:02
Comment From Beau
Do you think Hunter “should” have caught Papi’s grand slam? Looking over the replays it looks like if he’d taken a better route he might have had it easily…just a weird camera angle?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: Me because of th
e utter hilarious disaster it would be. I would be ejected from every game by the 5th inning. I think they give it to Price.
12:03
Dan Szymborski: It wasn’t a slam dunk, but he wasn’t in the proper position relative to the ball
12:03
Comment From DNA
I took particular enjoyment (even as a non Red Sox fan), that most of the Red Sox runs last night were creations of Fenway (Pedroia double, Ortiz HR both decent chance of outs in a normal sized ballpark).
12:03
Comment From Izzy
What’s the timeline going to be on 2014 ZIPS projections?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: Not sure yet. I do a lot of winigng it.
12:04
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
There’s probably less readers due to the Holiday. You know, all the Columbus Day drinking.
12:04
Dan Szymborski: Crap, it’s columbus day?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: I just realized it. I was going to go to the Post Office after chat and send a package!
12:05
Dan Szymborski: UPS is better. Post Office a couple blocks away. Guess which one I use.
12:05
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Are the Indians stuck paying Asdrubal $10 mil next year?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: You’re unlikely to get a better shortstop in the offseason at 1/10. He had a lousy year, but there’s a reason projection systems use multiple season rather than just the most recent one
12:07
Comment From B
Do batters TRY to foul off pitchers’ pitches in two-strike counts or is it just harder to put a ball in play when it is a good pitch? Is a foul ball more often a successful attempt to purposefully foul the ball off or is it the result of trying to put the ball in play and failiing?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Depends on the hitter. Some guys, it’s a viable strategy.
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Since there’s no “tomorrow” with 2nd strikes, it makes more sense to not chance viable pitches.
12:08
Dan Szymborski: Now, the rate at which a player is intentionally doing it rather than just the consequences of hitting a borderline pitch, varies.
12:08
Comment From Izzy
What do you think of Juan Lagares’ defense? Enough to make him an average regular? He was +24.4 in 121 games this year.
12:09
Dan Szymborski: There’s enough agreement between UZR and BIS to suggest that his performance is real to an extent.
12:09
Dan Szymborski: But not to suggest he’s a true 20-25 run CF yet. But even as a +10 CF, he’s a usable starter
12:10
Dan Szymborski: He’s not hopeless as a hitter, just kinda mediocre
12:10
Comment From Trevor
Happy Canadian Thanksgiving! Who will be one unexpected trade candidate this off-season?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Does Canada have some sort of weird Thanksgiviing tale like the US, maybe Alexander Mackenzie going back with a time machine and punching Montcalm in the face?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Oh, the actual Q.
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Reyes? There’s at least a chat Toronto folds instead of doubling down.
12:13
Comment From 3s and Puppies
If anyone mentions the game last night I will BURN THIS CHAT DOWN
12:13
Dan Szymborski: How do you burn the chat down? I bet you don’t even know where the CiL server is located!
12:13
Comment From Shane
Thoughts on Desmond Jennings for 2014?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: At this point, he is what he is. A good player, not a star. The overrating based on his 2011 half-year has finally worn off though, so he’s less overrated than before.
12:14
Comment From Izzy
Over the past 2 years, David Wright has been the second best player in baseball on a per game basis (8.1 WAR/162 games). How sustainable is that?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Probably not. There are more bad things that turn an 8 WAR player into a 4 WAR player than there are good things that turn an 8 WAR player into a 12 WAR player
12:15
Comment From That One Guy
WTF was Benoit thinking?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Every time I root for someone named Benoit, something bad happens.
12:16
Comment From Guest
What are the Dodgers odds to beat the Cardinals tonight? In the series?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: I’d probably say 4:1 against overall. About 50/50 tonight.
12:16
Comment From zach
have teams ever considered paying baseball america etc to massively overrate their prospects and increase their trade value?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: There are too many sources of prospects for that to be a successful strategy
12:17
Dan Szymborski: sources of prospect information, that is
12:17
Comment From Guest
Who are a couple people (trade or FA) the Cardinals should pursue for SS next year?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Stephen Drew
12:18
Dan Szymborski: They don’t really need a ton.
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Cardinals are good at sustainable, locally-grown, prospects.
12:19
Comment From Matt
Do you see Epstoyer beginning to make any attempts to improve big-league product this offseason?I get the feeling it’s going to be more “flips” and waiting for their Big 4 to emerge.
12:19
Dan Szymborski: That’s about right. I don’t think we’ll see big steps forward in the aggressive FA buying department until 15
12:19
Comment From 3s and Puppies
I can’t be the only Tigers fan who missed class today because I drank myself into oblivion after that terrible, terrible game.
12:19
Comment From Wink
Has success in college among hitters (even in the dead bat era) been a good indicator of major league success? Do you have a feeling for this?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard translating college stats, though there’s *some* relationship. It’d be nice if we had better college data, because things like park factors and strength of opposition can be huge there
12:20
Comment From CJ
If the Cubs make a move this offseason, who is it? CarGo? Price? Other?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: If they make a big move, it’ll be based on $, not trading prospects.
12:21
Comment From zack
Has Trevor Rosenthal fallen into the too good to be a starter thing? From what I hear he still wants to start, but his performance this year combined with all the other options makes it seem like’s he always going to close
12:21
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s stuck as a reliever for now.
12:21
Comment From Guest
Lots of talk about the Dodgers being injured right now. Cardinals aren’t very fortunate on the front either. Craig, Furcal, Motte, Garcia, Carpenter, …
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but a lot of those guys were injured ages ago. Some of the Dodgers injuries are very recent.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Oh, oh, CiL stuck!
12:24
Comment From CJ
If you’re Jedstien, do you go Acta, Hinch, Renteria, or Dave Martinez?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: There’ a lost comment from wink CiL won’t let me read or post
12:25
Dan Szymborski: Hinch
12:25
Comment From Jordan
What team would you say is the current favorite to land Choo in the FA market this offseason?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Can’t say a favorite yet, butu there are a lot of interested teams.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: I think a team like the Phillies that feels like they desperately need a bat to keep their dying core playoff-possible will over pay and get him
12:27
Comment From Beau
On the off chance “3s and Puppies” has some sort of weird power we are underestimating…
12:27
Comment From Tristan
Diamondbacks are said to be looking for a power, corner bat via trade. Thoughts on who they might go after?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re in on the Choo trade, but I suspect they’d settle for a Cruz or try to get Byrd on a short-term deal.
12:29
Dan Szymborski: But this is all speculation at this point!
12:29
Comment From zack
WIll the cardinals acquire a real shortstop in the offseason?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: No.
12:29
Comment From That One Guy
The Tigers obviously have an issue in LF. Castellanos’ brief cameo didn’t seem promising, though it was a brief cameo and therefore sss. Do you think they do something or let Castellanos have at it?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: I think they give him first shot.
12:29
Comment From GSon
Ubaldo had an option for 2014 that was supposed to convert to a player option if he was traded. In as much as he didn’t exercise the option, do the Indians have any recourse w/r to picking him up on his the option for 2014?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: None, I believe. His contract with Rockies allowed him to void 2014. Indians do get more time to sign him, as with all teams with free agents.
12:31
Comment From Guest
Will Lonnie Chisenhall ever be anything more than 1/2 of a 3B platoon? He’s lost the starting job midseason for 3 years in a row (to Hannahan twice, and Reynolds/Aviles).
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Can you hear me now?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: @#&%(@*#&% internet
12:36
Dan Szymborski: I’m still hopeful that Chisenhall establishes himself as an averageish player, though I think stardom is out of the cards now.
12:37
Comment From Wink
I think BA would like to add something about professional integrity being their only calling card
12:37
Comment From Three Fingers Stump
If the ALCS goes 7 games, do you think the Red Sox will strikeout 100 times?
12:37
Dan Szymborski: Fun to watch!
12:37
Comment From 3s and Puppies
Hi Dan, I like video games, baseball, numbers and I’m Polish. Even though my name isn’t Dan, I think we should hang out.
12:37
Comment From Davis
Erik Johnson (CHW) a deep sleeper? 2014 or later…
12:38
Dan Szymborski: I’d hardly call him a deep sleeper at this point.
12:39
Dan Szymborski: He’s got solid stuff and would have been drafted even higher if not walking too many dudes in college
12:39
Dan Szymborski: His control wasn’t great in the majors, but it’s better than he looked.
12:40
Dan Szymborski: test
12:40
Comment From Number 1 Fan
Noah Syndergaard or James Taillon?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: That’s kinda cruel. Possibly Syndergaard.
12:40
Comment From GSon
the Cardinals and Indians would seem to be a perfect fit for a trade.. The Indians have a stud/up and coming SS and need a corner OF’er.. The Cards have that up and coming OF’er and need their future SS. Do these guys get together on a trade?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so.
12:41
Comment From Dave from Pittsburgh
Can Jordy Mercer be a 3 win player at SS next year or did he overperform offensively this year?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: I think he overperformed, though I think he’s an adequate starter
12:41
Comment From Tristan
Ahh just answered my own question. What about the Dbacks sending Didi to STL for Matt Adams. Then have Adams move to LF?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: If you guys answered your own questions, we could be more efficient!
12:42
Dan Szymborski: It’s not a bad idea, but I don’t think that either team does it
12:42
Comment From Wink
Really, I think your comment about Cards and home-grown is interesting. The Sox and Cards are teams that spend on free agency and retain talent well, and build their farm systems exceptionally well. The Dodgers and TIgers not so much. How long before the Cubs join the former crowd?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: A few years. That’s the kind of organization Epstein wants to put together, for sure.
12:42
Comment From Matt
Do you see any of C Hart, N Cruz, or Granderson being good,short-term fits to help the Cubs’ woeful offense? Long-term, the offensive problem should be solved internally. Pitching-wise, they’re gonna need some external help.
12:43
Dan Szymborski: Possibly Granderson, as I think there’s enough upside there for a solid flip
12:43
Comment From Dave from Pittsburgh
With Barmes contract coming off the books as well as no more Garrett Jones, do you think the Pirates will go after Abreu or try to fill the need cheaply? Could Lambo work as a 1st baseman?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: I can see them dippinig their toes in with Abreu – they’ve expressed a willingness to spend more this offseason and they have generally hung onto their prospects
12:45
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll be fairly quiet though and give Lambo a shot.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: At least at 1st.
12:46
Dan Szymborski: I think they’re more likely to worry about a corner OF and get someone on a short-term deal that allows them to start phasing in Polanco
12:46
Comment From Curtis
Marisnick or Jackie Bradley? – Off/Def included…
12:46
Dan Szymborski: I still prefer Bradley
12:46
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Worse fans: Ones who cheered Matt Schaubs injury in Houston, or one who ripped the Avila home run ball away from the woman who caught it so that he could throw it back?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: My favorite is that youtube video of a woman grabbing a ball away from a little girl and getting high fives from her friends
12:48
Comment From Andrew
Any idea on how the inflow of national television revenue will impact the market price of a win?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Shouldn’t have *too* much of an impact. MLB television revenue regularly increases and teams actually have some sort of expectations for it in their planning
12:49
Dan Szymborski: They don’t generally treat new TV contracts like an inheritance from rich uncle skeleton
12:49
Comment From Gila Monster
Post Office is closed on Columbus Day. Source : Dad is a postmaster
12:49
Comment From buzz
Who is the more attractive trade target: Ryan Braun with seven years and $127 million remaining on his contract or Matt Kemp with six years and $128 million remaining on his contract?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Rather have Braun.
12:49
Comment From tylersnotes
do you actually say “oh oh” out loud, or are you one of those people who refuses to spell “uh oh”? is this a regional thing?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I say oh oh
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I say weird things.
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know why, but frequently, when discussing plans with people and coming to an agreement, I will say “cool whip” when “cool” is appropriate. I have no idea when that started, but I’ve confirmed with my friend Alan that I’ve been doing it for 20 years.
12:51
Comment From 3s and Puppies
Ok so how do the Tigers improve their defense in the off season without actually giving up any offense and generally keeping the same players?]
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Electric shock to Fielder’s nipples. Punches for Jose Iglesias.
12:51
Comment From Greg
Who do you think makes the strongest push for Tanaka?
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Yankees I think.
12:51
Comment From 3s and Puppies
Let Castellanos play. Save all money for Scherzer/Cabrera.
12:52
Comment From Tom
Mock the guy that says he’s going to burn down the chat, face the wrath of the dude that says he’s going to burn down the chat.
12:52
Comment From Guest
Do the length of post-season games concern you? And if so, is there anything that can be done about it?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: I’d still like strict refusal for batter time outs.
12:53
Dan Szymborski: But given that umpires don’t do their normal jobs correctly, I don’t expect this.
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Need to adjust your batting glove for the 5th time? Go ahead, but the pitcher still gets to throw.
12:54
Dan Szymborski: “Hold up Peyton Manning, the free safety has an itch on his butt. Give it 10 seconds, but one of the linebacks might need a new glove.”
12:54
Dan Szymborski: linebackers
12:54
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
I would like to see Matt Adams attempt left field
12:54
Comment From 3s and Puppies
Is the movie version of the Hobbit any good? I think I’m going to watch it.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: The party at the start lasts foreeeeeeeeeeever.
12:55
Comment From Wink
Is it safe to say that players in free-agency listen to the money and let intangibles like winning and nice location act as tie-breakers? I ask because I’d like to know if people avoid Seattle and Zduriencik on purpose, or because they don’t bid best.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Money usually talks best. When you’re filthy rich, most locations have the potential to be nice.
12:55
Comment From Bryan
Where do you think David Price ends up this off-season?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: That’s my Tuesday piece! Homes and possible packages for Price.
12:56
Comment From Jason
Pinto was really impressive, albeit a small sample size, do you think the Twins will have an eye at having him behind the plate and Mauer at 1b/DH a lot more in ’14?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: I suspect that’s the plan
12:56
Comment From Flo
if no one in MLB attempted a SB this year how many fewer runs would have been scored aprox??
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Baseball was like 700 SB over 2/3.
12:57
Dan Szymborski: So 0.2 R/G or so.
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Remember, the lower the level of offense, the lower the break-even point for stealing.
12:57
Comment From Flo
is Beltran a hall of famer?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: In a just world, yes.
12:58
Comment From Dave from Pittsburgh
You replied to my question 4 times, does this mean I shouldn’t expect you to answer my questions ever again?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: …
12:58
Comment From 3s and Puppies
Best part about skipping class and not working until tonight: watching movies, eating pizza and playing pokemon. I love College.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: I suspect that a lot of people are using that handle just to troll now!
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Seriously, I was terrible at doing homework from kindergarten through college. Thank goodness for testing.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: The elementary school I went to gave out effort grades in addition to letters, 1 for excellent effort, 2 for satisfactory effort, 3 for unsatisfactory effort.
1:00
Dan Szymborski: I used to get an endless stream of A3.
1:00
Dan Szymborski: My parents were called in and the teacher was trying to explain to my Mom that even though I know the content, I wasn’t putting a lot of effor tinto my work.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Thankfully, Mom had my back and informed the teacher that I was clearly putting in the optimal amount of effort in order to achieve the best possible grade.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Though perhaps if I had been grounded, I might have ended up a more disciplined person.
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Parents were always helpful there. Grandparents too.
1:02
Dan Szymborski: When Dad died, my sister was in high school and called the teacher an asshole after he questioned her in front of the class why she missed her homework from the day of the funeral. Even though he knew.
1:03
Dan Szymborski: So the principal calls my grandfather in to say that no matter what, that conduct was inappropriate and my grandfather’s first question was “Well, was he being an asshole?”
1:03
Comment From Why?
why will no one bunt on Cabrera? Why?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: I’ma ctually surprised more players don’t challenge him
1:03
Comment From That One Guy
Pokemon?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: A new Pokemon game just came out.
1:04
Dan Szymborski: I was kind of surprised when people I know were excited about it. I thought it was 1998.
1:04
Comment From 3s and Puppies
Homework and studying = overrated.
1:04
Comment From Eric
Did Alex Wood do enough to enter as the Braves 5th starter next season, or (provided healthy) do Beachy and Hudson, resume their rotation spots?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: I believe that he’s definitely in the mix.
1:04
Comment From Teacher
While many of us enjoy our jobs, equally there really are a lot of us that are assholes.
1:04
Comment From 3s and Puppies
NEW?! I take that as an insult. I’m playing Gen II on my gameboy color right now.
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Oh, X/Y came out.
1:04
Dan Szymborski: I assumed that’s what you’re playing.
1:04
Dan Szymborski: OK, we’re after 1, so any last questions on any subject whatsoever?
1:05
Comment From 3s and Puppies
Could Trout hit 40 HR in his prime?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: If Trout actually improved, he could get 5-base hits somehow.
1:05
Comment From 3s and Puppies
Ok now that asshole stole my handle
1:05
Comment From Corey
Does Stanton get traded this off-season?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: I think he gets traded after *next* season
1:05
Comment From GSon
Should the Government Shutdown have been avoided.. Is the person in charge(the President) shouldering his portion of culpability?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Ah, no politics!
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Any question on any topic except politics or religion.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: I’m a libertarian agnostic, so everyone’s going to hate me if we get into politics. And let’s be honest, politics is very personal, so nobody really gives a ship what I think.
1:07
Comment From Corey
NL MVP should be? Will be?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Kershaw, McCutcheon.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: McCutchen!
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Sorry.
1:08
Comment From Guest
Is human rights fair game? What is your view on abortion?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Usually, when I ask for random questions, I get football, music, or video game Qs!
1:08
Comment From Linus van Pelt
There are three things I have learned never to discuss with people: religion, politics, and the Great Pumpkin.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: @#%@ the great pumpkin!
1:08
Dan Szymborski: OK, on that note, I’ll end this for the week.
1:08
Comment From 3s and Puppies
The Flying Spaghetti Monster. No question, just FSM.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I think spaghetti is delicious. I can be on board if the spaghetti monster has bolognese apostles. But proper bolognese, with pancetta and everything.



Print This Post



Dave is a co-founder of USSMariner.com and contributes to the Wall Street Journal.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Current day month ye@r *