Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/21/13

Dan Szymborski: It’s peanut butter jelly time.

Dan Szymborski: Where he at?

Comment From Steve
Rendon or Gyorko – long term…including defense

Dan Szymborski: Rendon. Not that I dislike Gyorko, but if Rendon hasn’t been healthy and his debut was very solid for a guy who has missed so much time

Comment From GSon
Does the cardinal success with their player development signal the end of the mega-stupid 10 year 100’s of millions of dollar contracts?

Dan Szymborski: No, instant gratification is easy.

Comment From Guest
Peanut butta jelly with a baseball bat!

Comment From Leighton
Thoughts on who will succeed Leyland?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a tough one as we don’t even know who they’re interviewing, could be practically anybody

Dan Szymborski: They’ve been advancing Brookens pretty steadily

Comment From Greg
Can we now put to rest the idea that you need “multiple aces” to win in the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: You don’t need them obviously, but it doesn’t hurt

Comment From Nick
Any thoughts on Jim Leyland’s retirement?

Dan Szymborski: He’s got lots of time to smoke. Buy Philip Morris stock.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Its Szym-Szym-Syzm-Syzmborski chat

Comment From Alex
The Tigers need to rethink the structure of their organization in terms of player development and analytics. What should they do now that Leyland is out?

Dan Szymborski: They do need to shed their lack of interest in secondary talent.

Dan Szymborski: And they’re very slow to promote players and they have a strange fixation on the Mediocre LF of the Year

Comment From Pale Hose
What are the better leading indicators for hitters?

Dan Szymborski: Not really that cut-and-dry, though a guy who hits a lot of homers is more sustainable than a guy withi a sky-high BABIP

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Please tell me the Jays will non-tender Arencibia

Dan Szymborski: The Jays will non-tender Arencibia.

Dan Szymborski: You didn’t say it had to be true, just asked me to tell you that.

Comment From Garrett
How’s the Royals 2014 rotation going to shake out? Chen and Santana free agents, Duffy and Ventura look promising. Either of the rooks get a chance out of the gate?

Dan Szymborski: I think both will get a shot. There’s room. You have Santana back obviously and Paulino returning.

Dan Szymborski: I’m guessing Davis is in the bullpen and Mendoza not in the rotation

Dan Szymborski: which would leave room for both and a mediocre veteran

Comment From Guest
Thoughts on a Norris/Vogt catcher platoon in Oakland next season? Or is Jaso still in the mix?

Dan Szymborski: Jaso’s in the mix, but I don’t think the A”s want to count on him because nasty concussion problems can linger

Dan Szymborski: Jaso likely a trade candidate once he shows he’s healthy

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Toronto was linked to Howie Kendrick at the deadline. Now they’re linked to Ianetta and Cogner. Is a Jays-Angels super trade coming?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so.

Comment From Tom
Red Sox a 60% favorite. Is that all home field?

Dan Szymborski: Home field helps a little. Boston also in little tougher league (though people who say NL is AAAA are greatly exaggerating)

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Boston at 57-43, so 60’s not a crazy

Comment From Steve
Pinto (MIN) solid enough to get Mauer more 1B opps?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
David Price doesn’t seem like a fantastic idea for Texas (who collectively ranked 2nd in fWAR this season). It would take Profar and others for sure. Would you make the deal if you are Jon Daniels?

Dan Szymborski: Not if Profar is involved.

Dan Szymborski: Two years of Price at $13 mil a year or thereabouts is valuable, but he’s not Kershaw.

Dan Szymborski: I get about 4 surplus WAR for Price over next 2 years. Now, you can consider that teams that get him would be in a position that an overpay is reasonable and factor in that the FA market sucks, but there’s a big gulf between that 4 WAR value estimate and an amount that justifies trading the core of your farm system.

Comment From Dave
What would you expect from Gregory Polanco if he were called up next season?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be averageish. I’m still setting up park factors and such for ZiPS

Comment From Curtis
Unless Freese is MVP of the WS (or even if he is), what is the likelihood Carpenter slides over to third for Wong at 2B in 2014?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Cards will put off the decision as long as possible, but Freese will eventually be odd man out

Comment From Marcus A.
Did Clayton Kershaw really turn down the A-Rod contract? Isn’t that foolish?

Dan Szymborski: Certainly a risk to turn that down to wait until offseason. Given that the offer was already made, I personally would have accepted it, but he wasn’t comfortable

Comment From RF
Xander Bogaerts might be better than any rookie I’ve seen at laying off the outside breaking ball with two strikes.

Dan Szymborski: He showed some terrific patience in the palyoffs.

Dan Szymborski: That was a high pressure situation and while that changeup in Game 6 really was strike 3, that was still a very good PA.

Comment From Shannon
With the plethora of rotation options available for the Cardinals next year, someone has to be the odd man out to get traded. Who, to you, is just the right combination of expendable/valuable, amongst Cardinals starters going into next year.

Dan Szymborski: I still think Carlos Martinez might be part of a trade.

Dan Szymborski: If they can get a SS.

Dan Szymborski: I think Lynn gets squeezed out

Comment From Rich
Where will Ellsbury sign? I imagine a 5 year, $110MM contract when I think about it. Not sure anyone will go 6+ years.

Dan Szymborski: Robothal’s linked him to Mariners, who do want to spend money (and there are lots worse targets). Just speculation at this point

Comment From JT
Is the new Dodgers 2B (Guerrero) a good player? What do you know about him?

Dan Szymborski: Guerrero’s a tough one. I’m not sure that power will hold up as offense is crazy high over there.

Dan Szymborski: He’s a solidly built dude, not onle of those little middle infielders

Comment From Marcus A.
Has to be an old school manager though. Statistically inclined manager would go crazy with the order of playing Cabrera and Fielder in the field.

Comment From Dave
In hindsight… maybe Detroit should have made a move for Papelbon?

Dan Szymborski: Meh.

Comment From Guest
on a scale of 1-10, how excited are you for another Red Sox/Cardinals WS?

Dan Szymborski: I’m excited because it’s baseball, but the matchup itself isn’t that exciting for me.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Please assess the likelihood of the Jays non-tendering Arencibia

Dan Szymborski: Pretty darn good. My only concern for them non-tendering him is that they kept playing him.

Dan Szymborski: Arencibia was so horrific that I personally would have just gambled and chucked A.J. Jimenez into there (before he had elbow issues)

Comment From Nick
What do the Tigers really need to rethink? 3 straight division titles and 2 pennants in 7 years doesn’t exactly scream “bad organizational strategy”

Comment From GRIT AND HUSTLE
On a scale of one to Kevin Towers, how much grit will the next Nats manager have, and who will it be?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be in the middle. I don’t think Nats are going to go for crazy grit.

Comment From Hate baseball my team no in
Best FPS physics engine you’ve ever played? Half-Life 2 blew me away, personally.

Dan Szymborski: Hard to say for me personally as my favorite FPS of all-time, Team Fortress 2, is hardly known for realistic physics

Comment From Greg
Any idea who manages the Cubs next season?

Dan Szymborski: I would’ve liked to see A.J. Hinch get a second shot, but the buzz in public (and as far as I can tell, private) is Renteria.

Comment From Guest
Do you see the Dodgers moving Ethier in the offseason or given their apparently limitless resources, will they just use him as Baseball’s highest paid fourthOF not named Vernon Wells?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll hang onto him.

Comment From Guest
Does Ellsbury to Detroit make sense?

Dan Szymborski: He’s a possibility, but I don’t think he ends up there.

Dan Szymborski: You don’t really get full value from jackson *and* ellsbury if they’re out there together.

Comment From Guest
Who do you have more confidence in next season: Earvin Sanatana or Ubaldo?

Dan Szymborski: I’m still more comfortable with Ubaldo because he has the higher upside.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Where does Beltran land? Baltimore’s DH/part time rightfielder? How about LF in Detroit?

Dan Szymborski: I’d love to see him in Baltimore, but I suspect there’s something to all the Yankee-Beltran rumors.

Comment From Greg
What’s your outlook for Anthony Rizzo next season? Can he OPS .800+? Any shot at 30HR?

Dan Szymborski: Better year, but I wouldn’t put .800 OPS as the projection quite yet. He really was lousy the second half, but like Hosmer last year, I expect a better year from him

Comment From Matt
What types of moves do you expect out of Theo/Jed to improve their moribund offense? Given their lack of impact SP, can you really see them moving Shark if they can’t lock him up to a long-term deal?

Dan Szymborski: I think they keep the Shark and make low-key moves.

Comment From Ian
I would like Daniels to go insane in Texas and sign Cano and Beltran, then trade Profar for Stanton. Can you make this happen? ZiPS does that, right?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is pretty limited under my desk. It doesn’t have any legal authority to make trades.

Comment From Dave
Thoughts on the Guerrero signing? Overpay?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly, but he does have interesting power. It’s not a lot of dough in Dodger terms

Comment From Guest
Should the Orioles try to extend Hardy with Machado’s future at short now in doubt?

Dan Szymborski: Given his age, I’d be in the wait-and-see category.

Comment From Greg
Do you think Samardzija gets traded or extended? Does he post a sub 3.5 ERA next season?

Dan Szymborski: I think he ends up with an extension in the end.

Comment From Bill
Mike Matheny’s success in St. Louis seems to argue that a guy can be groomed for a MLB manager role without ever having coached or managed (officially). Can you think of anyone in the Tigers, or other, system that might be in that kind of position to replace Leyland? Brookens has at least coached, without any distinction that I’m aware of.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Ausmus?

Comment From CMR
Baseball Prospectus’s preview of the World Series says that “PECOTA sees the Cardinals as favorites by a healthy margin.” Why would ZiPS and PECOTA have such different takes?

Dan Szymborski: Well, I don’t have PECOTA on my PC, so I can’t really answer that.

Dan Szymborski: And they’re unlikely to turn it over to me.

Comment From Guest
Jose Abreu ZiPs line?

Dan Szymborski: League average 1B type.

Dan Szymborski: They didn’t need a piece from me as Law was on it, but Konerko actually showed up in top 10 of Abreu’s comps

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Continue to see Houston rumored as a possible Price destination. This makes little sense, right?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not happening. If it did, I’ll be shocked.

Dan Szymborski: But I’m not going to eat my had if the Astros do acquire him. After all, I don’t get something as super awesome if they don’t.

Comment From Schmiggy
Bogaerts will be next Sox star. He looks very good so far.

Comment From Shane
Somewhat related to the last question, but what’s the trade value of a guy like Lance Lynn?

Dan Szymborski: They’ll get a lower-tier prospect or two. Nobody game-changing.

Comment From Shark Mapiro
Who would you say get the most starts next year for Cleveland at these positions: C, 1B, RF?

Dan Szymborski: The incumbents. I dont’ think the Asdrubal era is quite over.

Comment From BassmanUW
Price and Stanton are presumably available this offseason. Do you think the Cubs should make a run at one of them, which would require them giving up Baez or Almora, since Soler’s contract likely takes him out of what the Rays and Marlins are looking for in return and Bryant can’t be traded? Or should the Cubs sit tight for now, at least as far as big names are concerned? I’m torn on this. I have injury concerns with Stanton, and Baez could potentially be a similar bat as shortstop (although more likely 3B.) And while I don’t see where the Cubs add a top of the rotation pitcher in FA, I don’t see one in their org right now, and David Price types aren’t available every year, it’s a big risk to get a top of the starting rotation at least a full calendar year before you’re likely ready to compete. Sorry for the length of the question, but I’m torn on this I tell you! Torn!

Dan Szymborski: I think that it’s a little too early for the Cubs to be going this route. They’re still trying to sort out exactly what they have.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Have you gotten a chance to play EUIV yet? I tried playing CKII last night and found it absurdly complicated but EUIV released a patch that made it basically unplayable.

Dan Szymborski: Not as much as it would like. CKII is probably the easiest paradox game to learn!

Comment From Dave
I was looking up old minor league stats and saw that Albert Pujols went from low A to AAA in one year. Has this happened recently?

Dan Szymborski: I believe it has, but my mind’s a blank

Comment From The Oberamtmann
Who at Fangraphs staff gives the best hugs? I bet it’s Jeff.

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, haven’t hugged any of them.

Comment From Lonely Hearts Club Band
With 2013 in the rear view, how would you grade Toronto’s Dickey/Reyes/d’Arnaud trade now?

Dan Szymborski: I still think the Dickey trade was a good one to make at the time, even if it hasn’t worked out all that well

Comment From Tom
How excited are you to see Papi playing 1B? Napoli out of luck for the games at Busch?

Dan Szymborski: Papi at first is always fun

Comment From Schmiggy
NO! Ethier too Mets deal has to happen. Mets winter plans hinge on it!

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Playoffs are a crapshoot. There is nothing a GM can do that helps his team win in the playoffs that doesn’t also help them in in the regular season.

Comment From Adam
What do the Yankees do in the off-season? Lots of needs, C, OF, 3b?, SP.

Dan Szymborski: C, Cano, an OF, SP for sure.

Dan Szymborski: The rest depends on where their payroll is

Comment From Gila Monster
Can Shelby Miller start over Joe Kelly in the Wold Series? He is a better pitcher and has been resting forever.

Dan Szymborski: I prefer Miller

Comment From Schmiggy
Will the Tigers make a serious run at Cano? otherwise, unless the Halos step up again, the seas will part for a return to the Bronx. Ugh. I mean, who else is there at the high end of the market?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they will. I assume the Yankees get their crap together and sign him fairly quickly for a lot of money.

Comment From Adam
What do the Padres do with their surplus of mediocre arms?

Dan Szymborski: They’re going to keep chucking them out there and hping for the best.

Comment From Gila Monster
What do you expect the Mets to do this off season?

Dan Szymborski: I expect the Mets to make a lot of noise but not actually do much in the end

Comment From BassmanUW
By low key moves by Theo/Jed, how low key do you mean? For example, I don’t think the Cubs will be in on Shin Soo Choo seriously (I just think the price will get too high), but if the Yankees don’t tender Granderson I could see the Cubs in on him.

Dan Szymborski: I’m talking about more DeJesus type signings.

Comment From Schmiggy
care to speculate on Choo and Ellsbury destinations/prices?

Dan Szymborski: A little early. Ask me in a few weeks.

Comment From Alex
Brookens used the term “On Base Percentage” in an interview recently, so the Tigers have that going for them at least.

Comment From BassmanUW
So Luis Valbuena is a functional second division 3B. But the Cubs have Mike Olt, whose awful 2013 was at least likely partly caused by vision issues that may or may not be resolving. And the Cubs have a very crowded infield in Triple A full of people who are at the least legitimate prospects (Baez, Alcantara, Villanueva), except at 1B, where the Cubs probably don’t want to put Olt. Should the Cubs start Olt at 3B in Chicago to see what he can do to start the season, and have Valbuena and Barney platoon at 2B?

Dan Szymborski: Olt was horrific in the minors this year. I’d be shocked if he started 2014 on the team.

Comment From Dave
Why is Stanton such an expensive trade piece considering the injuries and the fact that he’s only got 2 years left on his rookie deal? I don’t think he’s worth the core of your system (assuming a top 5 system)

Dan Szymborski: Because his upside is amazing and he has 3 years until FA

Comment From Gila Monster
PECOTA uses large sample size for older guys and small ones for young guys. So it is using giving Beltran,Holliday..etc. more credit for the past and giving young guys(Carpenter,Adams,Craig) more credit for this season.

Dan Szymborski: Again, I don’t know the exact inner workings of PECOTA, so I can’t comment on that with any utility

Comment From Catoblepas
you might not be the right person to ask, but any idea why UZR doesn’t like iglesias too much? obviously it’s only one season so far, but it seems very down on him given how a) good he looks and b) good everyone seems to think he is.

Dan Szymborski: UZR has him at +16.5 runs/150 games at short for his career so far.

Comment From Eminor3rd
How come you don’t play Terraria?

Dan Szymborski: No reason in particular, just never got to it

Dan Szymborski: OK, hitting 1 o clock, so any random Qs you want answerd, last chance

Comment From Seattle Slough
What do the Pirates do about 1B for 2014?

Dan Szymborski: I think Lambo gets first shot.

Comment From Eminor3rd
You talked me out of hoping for McCann

Dan Szymborski: Sorry!

Comment From A
What kind of offer does Edward Mujica get and from who? detroit, perhaps? It seems as though he was destined to get a giant closer type of deal with the season he was having and then blew up the last month/postseason. Has anyone in recent memory lost so much money so quickly?

Dan Szymborski: I still expect him to get something for 5-6 a year.

Comment From DTSS
John Lannan went fron A to AA to AAA to the Majors in 2007. Taylor Jordan went from A to AA to the Majors this year.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks. My brain is fried today.

Dan Szymborski: Been arguing with my Mom on the phone before this chat, which is why I was late.

Comment From Jerry
will Bogaerts be the starting ss next season for Boston?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Gila Monster
Actually the Padres have great arms….That are just never healthy. Luebke,Cashner,Casey Kelly,Ross,Burch Smith…That is a drool worthy power rotation.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but if they’re not around, they don’t count!

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
If you could ever programs ZiPS to write articles and conduct chats you would never have to work again.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but that wouldn’t be much fun.

Dan Szymborski: I’d hardly consider this “work”

Comment From Chicago Mark
Could Josh Johnson or Philip Hughes be on the Cubs radar this off-season? I see minimal risk/high reward (in trade bait) for these two players. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: Johnson is someone I could definitely see in Chicago

Comment From Guest
Does the King Felix wire fraud thing mean anything for the Mariners?

Dan Szymborski: Nah, other tha a few awkward moments

Comment From Matt
Does CLE move Bauer this offseason? Is he a nice, bounceback candidate for a team hunting for some SP upside?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll hang onto him

Comment From Sadwick
Are the Braves in for a rough decline in offense next year? Uggla and B.J haven’t looked very good, McCann is gone, Gattis doesn’t walk, and you can’t expect Chris Johnson to hit this well again.

Dan Szymborski: Well, Upton will be better for one.

Dan Szymborski: Have to see what they do in the offseason

Comment From Paul
Does Jim Adduci get a chance with Texas next year? What do you think of his potential?

Dan Szymborski: As a role player, maybe.

Dan Szymborski: He hasn’t been exactly great in the minors. Even his 2013 is kinda meh for the PCL

Comment From DTSS
I don’t think most people outside of the Nats fanbase would have known about Lannan and Jordan. Not exactly guys who are featured on ESPN nightly. So now worries. Arguing with one’s mom is never fun, though. My sympathies.

Dan Szymborski: I think I won the argument. She somehow got into her head that opting out of her company’s really good insurance policy and going on the exchange would be a better deal

Dan Szymborski: (seriously, the amount she actually pays for her company’s excellent insurance is $140 a month)

Comment From Justin
Are the Dodgers going to do anything with Matt Kemp? I don’t look forward to another 4-5 seasons of playing will-he-or-won’t-he? with Mr. Glass in centerfield.

Dan Szymborski: They’re committed to him. There ain’t no towel-throwing for a bunch of years.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I’m going to close the festivities for the week. Thanks for joining me!