Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/11/17

2:01
Dan Szymborski: MAKE CHAT GO NOW

2:01
Dan Szymborski: Like start, I’m not demanding you guys leave.

2:02
Dan Szymborski: Also, Carson had the chat originally set to go at noon in a vile attempt to undermine me from the start so that he can get the upper hand, so some of the questions were submitted hours ago.

2:02
Terry: What is the likely ceiling for Jurickson Profar?

2:02
Dan Szymborski: He still has a fairly high ceiling, but the prob of *reaching* it is lower than it used to be. He’s still very talented but he’s lost a lot of time.

2:03
Wren: Robert Gsellman or Lucas Giolito and why?

2:03
Dan Szymborski: Giolito, because of the Doctrine of Not Pretending a Player’s Brief Positive Stint in the Majors is the Only Time He’s Ever Played Baseball.

2:03
Dan Szymborski: Gsellman’s improved his stock, but let’s not go crazy.

2:04
Dan Szymborski: There were lots of reasons provided why Shane Greene’s initial improvement in the majors from minors was totally repeatable.

2:04
RotoLando: Dan chat on Wednesday? Do I dare?

2:04
Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:04
Izzy Goldstein: Have the Russians hacked your projections programs yet? If not, when will they? Thank you.

2:04
Dan Szymborski: MY REAL NAME IS SZYMBORSKY THIS HAS ALL BEEN A TRAP

2:04
RotoLando: I can’t take ZIPS seriously untill we see your tax records.

2:05
JD: why does zips loves Phil Hughes so much? he’s horrible IRL

2:05
Dan Szymborski: That’s love? It’s essentially predicting his career ERA+

2:05
Big Joe Mufferaw: Should other teams be worried that the richest team in baseball also has the best farm system in baseball?

2:05
Dan Szymborski: Of course

2:05
Bob Sacamento: Any chance on getting a ZiPs projection on Adam Eaton for the 2017 season?

2:06
Dan Szymborski: ’twas in my ESPN piece so it won’t pop again until the first run is ready in a few weeks

2:06
Gopherballs: Can you explain the McGriff votes? Steroids hardliners? Personal friends of Tom Emanski?

2:07
Dan Szymborski: He’s a legitimate borderline candidate. The problem is the votes he’s getting *over* some of thsoe guys

2:07
Gopherballs: Is the A’s plan hope Gray bounces back, Manaea and Cotton perform better than expected, Doolittle stays healthy and leads a tough Dull/Madson/Hendriks bullpen, and the collection of 1 WAR position player becomes greater than the sum of their spare parts to compete for the last wild card spot . . . or if not, sell whatever’s not nailed down at the deadline?

2:07
Dan Szymborski: Their plan is essentially hope at this point. It’s shocking how little upside the offense has – they’re accumulating guys with ceilings so low that they look like they were in a scene cut from Wonka.

2:08
Gopherballs: Which HOF candidate currently polling below 15% per @NotMrTibbs is most deserving (Kent, Sheffield, Sosa, Wagner, Posada, field)?

2:08
Dan Szymborski: I’d probably vote for Kent first.

2:08
Big Joe Mufferaw: Who do you like more in 2017, Cessa, Severino, Warren, Green, Montgomerry as the yankees #5?

2:08
Dan Szymborski: I’d like Severino, but I’m not sure they go there.

2:09
JimLindeman15: Is there a better pairing (for entertainment purposes only) than Jordan Schafer and Mike Matheny? It’s like dropping a tarantula in the Kindergarten classroom.

2:09
Dan Szymborski: The best thing about Matheny is that the Cards front office is smart enough that he must drive them absolutely CRAZY at times.

2:10
Rick Hahn: Why am I having such a hard time finding a match for Quintana (in a pitching starved market no less)?

2:10
Dan Szymborski: I think they’re still in the asking for the stars phase.

2:10
Dan Szymborski: If they don’t settle for the moon, then worry.

2:10
RMR: Of his remaining trade chips, who do you think Rick Hahn moves before Opening Day?

2:10
Dan Szymborski: I was hoping more by now after the first two.

2:11
Dan Szymborski: Abreu’s not going anywhere, probably not until at least when Moncada is established in the majors (if he ever goes)

2:11
Joe: Do the Orioles have a realistic path towards contention this year?

2:11
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but they need some things to go right.

2:11
Dan Szymborski: Getting reasonable and healthy years from Tillman-Gausman-Bundy is a key.

2:11
Dan Szymborski: The loss of Trumbo isn’t really that big of a deal – Trumbo simply wasn’t *that* good in 2016.

2:12
Matt: Hi Dan. I missed you. Your new spot is uncomfortable. Like the backseat of a Volkswagon.

2:12
Justino: If Heyward were a free agent this offseason instead of last, what contract would he be able to command? Does 4/$48 seem reasonable?

2:12
Dan Szymborski: I think he’d still get more than that.

2:12
Dan Szymborski: Though he’s not getting $180 million *this* offseason of course

2:12
Dan: Thank you for continuing to keep Zips chockablock with AA relievers. Now, fix Alex Verdugo’s defensive rating. Do it!

2:13
Dan Szymborski: Paz, I know you’ll get mad if I leave any reliever out!

2:13
Mike: Which AL teams do you see battling for the Wild Card spots in september?

2:13
Dan Szymborski: Same as last year. I think 2017 is going to look a lot like 2016 generally.

2:13
Dan Szymborski: Now, not perfectly of course, but I think the best teams and the rebuilding teams are mostly the same, which leaves fewer surprises

2:13
Pip: What can the Nationals do to try and get on the same page as the Dodgers and Cubs? It seems clear they’re greatest need right now is is depth. But does signing, lets say, Moss, Holland and maybe another reliever get them there?

2:14
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re really *thyat* far behind.

2:14
Matt: Dan – regarding Chass. I generally agree with you on most topics (including, very much so, your views of vocally being an opponent of Chass – or whoever – as a check and balance to the system of journalism). But at the end of the day, doesn’t your general belief in free thought have to lead you to accept Chass’ (moronic) opinion? Or is the crux of your argument that that Chass – as an unethical/dishonest journalist – shouldn’t have the right to vote in the first place?

2:15
Dan Szymborski: My belief in free thought leads me to accept Chass’s *right* to make an opinion.

2:15
Dan Szymborski: But I don’t think he has a *right* to a BBWAA vote or really, BBWAA membership.

2:16
Dan Szymborski: I’m not talking about dumb Hall of Fame votes either. He can vote for borderline Hall of Good/Very Good guys all he wants. But when he announced a couple years ago he was voting out of *spite* that was a very different thing.

2:16
Dan Szymborski: Frankly, after the thoroughly dishonest hatchet job on Stan Musial on top of crap like backne, I felt he should have his Spink Award stripped and his BBWAA membership revoked. And I still do.

2:16
Rob: Do you think a Quintana deal gets down before the season starts?

2:17
Dan Szymborski: Yes. In the end, it’s in the team’s interest.

2:17
Dan: Also, why don’t you call him Johan von Mieses. You are slipping. You need to give me some side coin to find all the academic jokes.

2:17
Arizona Diamondbacks: Can you make my team great again?

2:17
Dan Szymborski: Time and good moves can do that.

2:17
Phanatic: For a young team like the Phillies, many of whose players have very little ML service time, how do the ZiPS projections compare to more veteran teams? Is there historical data that shows how accurate ZiPS has been for young vs veteran teams? SSS obviously hurts projections, but how much?

2:17
Dan Szymborski: I’ve looked at *players* as a whole, but I haven’t looked at young *teams* vs. bad *teams* in that context.

2:19
Kevin: Not being particular skilled in ‘math’, I’m wondering if there might be something to the idea that the calculation that clubs do to assess WAR might have increased the weighting of defense relative to offense. What do you think, could this have happened? Do you have any ‘inside baseball’ knowledge of this happening?

2:19
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think this is happening.

2:19
Jordan (sicklikethewind): Why is Artanis currently leading HOTS in win rate?

2:20
Dan Szymborski: (No lightning round today as I have to go pick up my mom and drive her to pick up her car so she can go to her 4 o clock doctor’s appointment)

2:20
Dan Szymborski: Artanis is?

2:20
Dan Szymborski: That surprises me. Artanis is versatile, but meh crowd control. I would expect Artanis’s win % to be high on *good* teams but not so much overall

2:21
G-Man: Was 2016 a new Dan Straily- great WHIP & decent K’s or does regress to old Straily?

2:21
Dan Szymborski: He’ll be OKish, but he’s too easy to hit a homer off of

2:21
v2micca: If the Angels continue to follow their current trajectory, what season do they seriously contemplate trading Mike Trout? Do they stubbornly hold on until the 2020 Non-waiver Trade Deadline?

2:21
Dan Szymborski: Hanging onto stubbornly while the team wins 75 games a year is the worst thing for the Angels to do, so I expect them to do that.

2:22
ohioastrosfan: Can we PLEASEEEE have some analysis on each team’s total player asset values? I would love to be able to look at how much each player is estimated to be worth and then look at team’s as a whole. And this would really be helpful when talking about trades with people who don’t know much about contracts.

2:22
Dan Szymborski: I usualyl do this kind of stuff as we get closer to the season.

2:22
Brad: What are your thoughts on recent beyond box score article about grading the projection systems?

2:23
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had a below-average offensive year and above-average pitching year in my reviews (and a really excellent team year). I have issues with the methodology (seem to be some holes and I’m trying to figure out if and who the author centered the numbers), but I stay away from commenting on this issue generally as I have a real conflict of interest.

2:23
Jason: Which is worse — Edgar not getting into the HOF because of the stupid writers or Schilling not getting in because of the stupid Schilling??

2:23
Dan Szymborski: Edgar’s had a huge bump. I think he gets in now.

2:23
powder: What Separates O’Koyea Dickson from an MLB contributor?

2:23
Dan Szymborski: Clarify: Not this year. But I think Edgar’s on an approach pattern now

2:24
Dan Szymborski: Defense

2:24
Von Schloss: Are you playing FFXV?

2:24
Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually have a PS4 yet! I’ll probably get one this upcoming year, but I’ll probably hold off until XV until a PC version.

2:25
Way to early: If you had to pick one current prospect as a future HOFer? Who would you pick?

2:25
Dan Szymborski: Dansby Swanson. Note that I’m not giving a mean projection of HOFer but YOU MADE ME PICK ONE

2:25
powder: Do you have a favorite office game, like waste-basket hoops?

2:26
Dan Szymborski: Overwatch.

2:26
Dan Szymborski: I work from home!

2:26
Oren: Are teams being too cautious in the free agent market this offseason, considering that next season everyone will only want to sign in Toronto to escape Trumpism?

2:26
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think teams are being too cautious. The market is a combination, this winter, of suck and overrated.

2:27
Krush: Khris Davis has been top 8 in ISO since day 1 in the majors. Is he one of the more underrated hitters in MLB. ISO comps are Trout, Miggy, Stanton, CarGo. Obviously his game has warts keeping him from being elite, but how many power hitters are actually better than him?

2:27
Dan Szymborski: He’s an absolutely excellent power hitter. It’s just the rest of the stuff.

2:27
Dan: Dude, keep this isht at 2PM . I sleep late and it’s not like I want the direct personal interaction that Facebook messages imply.

2:27
Jordan: Can I pay FanGraphs x dollars to have access to the ZiPS machine?

2:27
Dan Szymborski: No.

2:28
Dan Szymborski: The only people with access to the ZiPS machine are me and those that break into my house, safe deposit box, or find my flash drive hidden in a state park and defeat the passwords.

2:28
Phanatic: ZyPS. hacked Russian projection system

2:28
Rick Hahn: Why haven’t the Rockies called me yet?

2:28
Dan Szymborski: Rockies upper management probably sees one ten-win season and thinks Quintana sucks.

2:29
Dan: Are you gonna do the top 100-150 zips prospect list again this year? Was I a fool trading Jake Bauers in a deal instead of trading Alex Verdugo in a deal?

2:29
Dan Szymborski: Yup, possibly.

2:29
Godzilla: Seems like you are releasing ZiPS a little earier this year. Big help – thanks!

2:29
Dan Szymborski: Same time as always!

2:29
Matt: ZiPS for Jake Lamb are on par with Steamer. Since Steamer is fully released, I ran Z-Scores (you don’t own the letter Z…) and Lamb ranks around 150 overall. Anecdotally, I would have thought he’d be top 100. How do you feel about the projections coming out for him?

2:29
Dan Szymborski: No, I do own the letter Z and you will be hearing from my team of attorneys.

2:29
Dan Szymborski: I don’t disagree on the Lamb projections.

2:29
Shawn DC: Is Oaklands minors more steak than sizzle? Who would be the players with the largest upsides in their system?

2:30
Dan Szymborski: They have some of both.

2:31
Dan Szymborski: I do think the belief that Franklin “Three Flavours” Barreto has the highest upside is correct.

2:31
Chuncey Wiggins: If baseball pitchers could get a running start like cricket “hurlers” would Bartolo Colon still have a job?

2:31
Dan Szymborski: Bartolo is Magic

2:32
Eric: If Posada gets 5%, is Cameron or Ordonez the best player to get dropped from the ballot this year?

2:32
Dan Szymborski: Cameron, I think, but it’s close. Drew’s in that mix to be best one-offer

2:32
Dan Szymborski: I still can’t believe Edmonds was one-and-doned. Absurd.

2:32
Crime Dog: Without the strike, I’d be in the HOF. 7 more HR and 10 more hit’s and I’d be at 500, 2500. Why so much hate?

2:33
Dan Szymborski: Still a borderline candidate. I was asked how I’d vote and I don’t care about round numbers.

2:33
Dan Szymborski: And he’s the 14th-16th or so best candidate on the ballot not in the Hall.

2:33
scottz: How much did the Eaton trade affect other trades like Quintana and Dozier by making it seem like everyone was just going to give away the prospect store to acquire a known MLB asset?

2:33
Dan Szymborski: I think teams like the Twins have become greedier.

2:33
Dan Szymborski: And I think the Twins are going to get bitten in the ass on the Dozier thing.

2:33
Shane: Do you think the price of giving up a pick for a free agent has become overvalued? For teams with a pick in the bottom half of the first round, what are the chances that pick even turns into something valuable?

2:34
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so. Where it’s talked about is when the player isn’t that good to begin with.

2:34
Dan Szymborski: *Nobody* worries about the loss of a first-rounder if we’re talking a real superstar.

2:34
Dan Szymborski: But losing a pick to sign Trumbo? That’s serious.

2:35
Eric: More deserving of HOF, McGriff or Sheffield?

2:35
Dan Szymborski: Sheffield, but it’s not a landslider or anthying

2:35
Ben: Just wanted to let Matt know that I chuckled at his Mallrats reference.

2:35
CamdenWarehouse: I’m late! Totally unprepared for back to back chats

2:35
Kosch: Are routine eye exams part of the players medical assessment? If no, why the F not? Would/Could/Should a club make that a mandatory contractual obligation?

2:36
Dan Szymborski: You would *think* they are, but there’s always a story every year or so about some team never checked the guys eyesight.

2:36
Dan Szymborski: Matt Diaz pops off the top of my head.

2:36
CamdenWarehouse: I like that Chass’s wiki page describes him as a blogger and his site as a blog which would very much upset him if he knew what wikipedia was

2:37
Dan Szymborski: Actually, I’m not sure he even knows what the internet is. I think he’s like Creed Bratton on The Office and thinks his Wordperfect files are the internet and then that grandson of his posts them to the web for him.

2:37
Chaps: What do you think goes through a player’s mind when they’re involved in months-long trade talks (i.e., Quintana & Dozier)? Could it have a negative (or maybe even positive) effect on their on-the-field performance?

2:37
Dan Szymborski: It might, but it goes with the territory.

2:37
Chaps: The two main teams in on Quintana are the Astros and the Pirates. Any reason to suspect that a #mysteryteam can jump in?

2:37
Dan Szymborski: Lots of teams ought to want Quintana, so there’s definitely potential.

2:37
Chuncey Wiggins: Prediction on Donald Trumps first pitch…strike/ball?

2:38
Dan Szymborski: It’ll land 10 feet in front of the plate and he’ll tell Twitter that the catcher praised him for throwing the best, most beautiful split-fingered fastball he’s ever seen.

2:38
CamdenWarehouse: Can we stop calling it the “Third Time through the Order Penalty” and start calling it the “I’ve Pitched to 18 Guys and am Starting to Get Tired Penalty”?

2:38
Von Schloss: Are you surprised we haven’t heard more about a David Robertson trade?

2:38
Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:38
mtsw: In 244 innings, Ubaldo Jimenez has a 3.64 ERA with Caleb Joseph catching him. In 146 innings, he has a 5.89 ERA with Matt Wieters catching him. Is there something to this (beyond the much-smaller difference you’d expect given that Joseph is better at framing) or is it just noise?

2:39
Dan Szymborski: These numbers have so much noise that it’s hard to find the signal.

2:39
Matt: I’ve never seen a WAR equation. What does it look like? Simple linear regression? More advanced linear model? Exponential components? Variable interaction?

2:39
Dan Szymborski: WAR is more of a concept than a strict set of equations.

2:39
Dan Szymborski: It’s setting a replacement measure and then measuring runs above that somehow, but WAR doesn’t demand a specific measure

2:39
Dan Szymborski: Some really bad writer could even use Runs Produced as the basis for a WAR measure.

2:40
Dan Szymborski: Which I hope they do because it’ll be fun to poke fun of.

2:40
Matt: I’m sure you’re doing this yourself yearly to update your model, but any thoughts on releasing some measurement metrics regarding ZiPS? Maybe thing like the general percentile that you’re hitting?

2:40
Dan Szymborski: I prefer third parties to release things because I have an insurmountable conflict of interest.

2:40
Dan Szymborski: I provide data I have for people that need it.

2:41
Dan Szymborski: But I’m a human and I’m no doubt going to like measurement stats that ZiPS looks better in.

2:41
Matt: Have you ever thought about trying to sleep at ESPN HQ in order to try to preserve your life/work balance?

2:41
Dan Szymborski: I like my life/work balance!

2:41
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Nintendo Switch, you buying one? Watching the press conference tomorrow night?

2:41
Dan Szymborski: Not sure yet.

2:41
RotoLando: Would your cats prefer waffles or pancakes? I’m willing to send them either one via UberEats

2:41
Dan Szymborski: Galileo does like pancakes.

2:41
Andrelton Simmons Big Rig: Do you agree with ZiPS that Michael Kopech would be a better starter this year than Julio Urias?

2:42
Dan Szymborski: Kopech has a crazy range.

2:42
Dan Szymborski: I would not be surprised at anything between Dewon Brazelton and Roger Clemens.

2:42
CamdenWarehouse: I recently played Mystic Vale recently and thoroughly enjoyed it. Didn’t think I would.

2:42
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a board game group!

2:43
976: Where does ZiPS get its park factors? And are they updated every year regardless of actually moving fences?

2:43
Dan Szymborski: I run them myself.

2:43
CamdenWarehouse: I’m surprised you didn’t tell Jordan that he could have access to the ZIPS machine if he paid Dan X dollars

2:43
Dan Szymborski: I’m an honest broker!

2:43
Monte Carlo Method Man: What do you think about rules that have to exempt themselves, such as: “never say never”?

2:43
Dan Szymborski: Not a fan. The phrase should be “never say never, this rule taking effect at the end of this sentence.”

2:43
The Cincinnati Kid: Dan, was the change from Mondays to Wednesdays negotiated since you’ll miss the extra 4-5 Bank Holidays that fall on Mondays? I’ll hang up and listen for your response…

2:44
Dan Szymborski: It gives Travis a really good timeslot for the audience to get to know him.

2:44
Dan Szymborski: And I’m usually super-busy on something Monday morning.

2:44
Dan Szymborski: I go on lots of four-day travel trips and there’s always some kinda thing I have to file Monday that I’m behind one

2:45
Dan Szymborski: So this should have the side effect of me missing fewer.

2:45
Los: Have you been watching any of AGDQ? Any favorite runs?

2:45
Dan Szymborski: I’ve been lazy this time around.

2:45
RotoLando: Name someone that can be accurately described by the term, “clodhopper”

2:45
Dan Szymborski: Sean Casey

2:45
Bob: Dan, do you want us stand behind you and clap every time you answer a question?

2:46
Dan Szymborski: Wait, that’s an option?

2:46
RotoLando: Are you a fan of Manuel Margot? Is it okay if I still call him Manny?

2:46
Dan Szymborski: Yes. And you’d have to ask him.

2:46
Kosch: What is the role of Evan Gattis with McCann as catcher and Aoki in outfield and Beltran at DH?

2:46
Dan Szymborski: Fluidity

2:47
Dan: What low minor leaguers are you rooting for just because their names will make for awesome Zips fodder? I’d consider Sicnarf Loopstok, but figure not many jokes ther.e

2:47
Dan Szymborski: I’m very sad that Jose Jose got released.

2:48
Dan Szymborski: There’s Skye Bolt.

2:48
mtsw: How much of the decline in Bautista’s market is due to the fact he apparently can’t really throw anymore?

2:49
Dan Szymborski: I think the biggest deal is that he may have aimed high.

2:49
Dan Szymborski: I said then and I still say now that Bautista should’ve taken the first reasonable offer. Too many guys of similar profiles this year

2:49
STiVo: There seems to be a strong innate urge to crown winners of tournaments and other postseasons as “the best team.” But a moment’s thought will reveal that a tournament winner isn’t necessarily the best. Hockey has the President’s Trophy for the team that amassed the most points during the regular season–but fans give approximately zero [turds] about that. Can you provide an approximate accounting of the reasons we care so much about postseason/tournament winners and not the actual long-haul seasons that are much better sorting algorithms for true talent?

2:50
Dan Szymborski: It bothers me as an analyst, but people need that instance of Sports Orgasm.

2:50
The Cincinnati Kid: Would FA be more exciting if it was an actual auction in the offseason?

2:50
Dan Szymborski: Possibly, but then there’s not a lot to write about the rest of the season!

2:50
RotoLando: The Mariners have been very busy this off-season, but have they made any real progress?

2:51
Dan Szymborski: Not really. Dyson good. Gallardo not. They’ve made some interesting moves, but I don’t think they’re really a better team.

2:51
The Oriole Bird: Travis Sawchik came. He stole your chat time. Stole it right out from under you. You’ve gotta get him back. Get him good. What are you going to do, Agent Szymborski? (Also, please tell the Orioles not to sign Mark Trumbo! Thanks, bro.)

2:52
Dan Szymborski: If I had a secret plan to destroy Travis if I told you it wouldn’t be a very secret plan.

2:52
RotoLando: If Vlad Guerrero Jr’s name was Rex Waldo Steinmart, would he be given so much prospect rope?

2:52
Dan Szymborski: If his name was REX WALDO STEINMART he’s the best prospect ever.

2:52
Garret: Why are none of my questions ever answered on this chat, is it he Russians messing with me?

2:53
Sandy Kazmir: Thoughts on the Rasmus signing by the Rays?

2:53
Dan Szymborski: It’s reasonable. The Rays are better than they looked last year.

2:53
Dan Szymborski: And I’d prefer them signing 4th outfielders than trading Trea Turner for them.

2:53
Dan Szymborski: Well as an analyst. As an O’s fan, I want all the other AL East team trading Trea Turners for 4th outfielders.

2:54
mtsw: Is there a trade out there that would let the Orioles swap Dylan Bundy for a starter with less team control? Bundy’s high-ceiling, fragile, lottery ticket status seems like a uniquely poor fit for the Orioles who are operating on an essentially two year window of competitiveness

2:54
Dan Szymborski: There may actually be a fit on a team like that.

2:55
Dan Szymborski: Though a lot of the rebuilding teams have shed their interesting starters to a large extent

2:55
JBD: Do you know any good resources for beginners to use when learning to play the keyboard?

2:55
Dan Szymborski: I would think the piano beginner stuff?

2:55
CamdenWarehouse: Do you do the depth charts for the ZIPS posts or Carson?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: Carsón

2:56
Bob Sacamento: Was I fool for trading Giolito for Eaton in DMB?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: Depends on your situation.

2:56
Kosch: Are you married or are you a crazy cat dude?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: I’m alone and have five bedrooms and cats.

2:56
Dan Szymborski: Not married, just a girlfriend that more or less tolerates my existence.

2:56
mtsw: Have you played RimWorld yet? It’s the first good Dwarf Fortress clone, I think.

2:56
Dan Szymborski: Watched, haven’t rried yet.

2:56
976: Do you send your Park Factors to DMB too? Or do they ostensibly have their own?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS disks uses my PFs.

2:57
Matt: Got in a discussion on a board today about the term ceiling. Guy was saying that you can’t exceed a ceiling, because then by definition, it wasn’t the ceiling. I said his definition was more that of a roof, not a ceiling. Are ceilings generally thought of as 90th percentile outcome?

2:57
Dan Szymborski: There’s no hard and fast rule for this.

2:58
Matt: Dan – the benefits of great sandwiches are that they taste good. Do you agree?

2:58
Dan Szymborski: Seems to follow.

2:58
JT: Will you be attending Secretary Cistullis confirmation?

2:58
Dan Szymborski: To testify against him!

2:58
powder: FF XV is mostly a camping/ roadtrip simulator. Fun, but more about wandering and generally faffing about than grinding and saving the world. Like, if you spent a lot of time fishing in Zelda OoT then it’s right in your wheelhouse!

2:59
Lev: What would a Goldschmidt extension look like?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: Brown to match his existing hair.

2:59
Alex Reyes: Have you done any modeling of WBC participation on individual performance?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: I have not

2:59
Dan: Would you call him Ione Skye Usain Bolt ?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think of these jokes ahead of time!

3:00
Mariner Moose: What are your gut reactions to the Mariner-Brave trade that just went down?

3:00
Dan Szymborski: THATS WHY YOU GUYS KEEP ASKING MALLEX SMITH QUESTIONS

3:00
Dan Szymborski: No, I like that trade from the Mariners point of view.

3:01
Eric: You said Sheffield was slightly more deserving than McGriff. Do you think either should be in the Hall?

3:01
Dan Szymborski: Sheffield’s just over my line, McGriff is on it. I go back an dforth on him.

3:01
Crazy Cat Lady: Does each cat have its own room?

3:01
Dan Szymborski: You’d think so, but Galileo owns all the territory.

3:01
976: So far I’ve counted 4 contributors from my DMB league here. Can we just hire you for a private, er, performance?

3:02
Dan Szymborski: Is this some weird stripper part in which I have to come as a sabermetrician and start undressing to weird math rock?

3:02
Astroguy: analyst say slugger market cratered, when in reality the agents/players clearly misjudged the market. is next big “crater” this notion you can sign guys and then “flip” them at the trade deadline? or should I tune out Tv analyst saying sign this guy?

3:02
Dan Szymborski: Oh yeah, most guys aren’t flipped.

3:03
Dan Szymborski: Something like 20% of player on one-year contracts for losing teams actually get traded.

3:03
Dan Szymborski: The exceptions appear to be guys that are on one-year contracts because of the unknowns, like Rich Hill.

3:03
Dan Szymborski: And on that note, I have to go pick up my mom.

3:04
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone! As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.



Print This Post



Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


Comments Are Loading Now!