Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/18/13

11:59
Dan Szymborski: Ah, Ruben Amaro Jr. Making the moves that other NL East GMs would make for the Phillies.
12:00
Comment From Marc
#AnalyticsPlant strikes again!
12:01
Comment From hot corner
How similar/dissimilar are corner infielders Will Middlebrooks, Mark Trumbo and Mark Reynolds? Salaries aside, whom would you choose for 2014 production at the plate?
12:01
Dan Szymborski: Middlebrooks has the upside.
12:02
Comment From ar
ruiz deal has a limited no trade clause too
12:02
Comment From Killa
Which job would be harder, to get RA, Jr to adopt any sort of analytics or getting an orca to play baseball?

12:02
Dan Szymborski: That’s a tough one.
12:02
Comment From bob
Josh Johnson make sense for the Cubs?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: Yes. A resurgent Johnson could have serious trade value. Cubs are not in a risk-averse position.
12:03
Comment From Guest No. 1
Ruiz 8.5 mil /yr totally just changed my fantasy prognosis of him. Now hes a top 10 Catcher!
12:03
Comment From Rick Hahn
Will I pull off a deal for Beckham and some of my pitchers?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: No sense trading Beckham. He doesn’t have much trade value, so White Sox probably better off holding onto the lotto pick.
12:04
Comment From Andrew
So I really will not take a backseat to many in my criticism of Ruben, but is this really a bad deal? 26 million = 5 WAR. Does anyone really doubt Chooch will get 5 WAR over the next three years? I think if Cherington did this exact deal we’d be fine iwth it.
12:04
Dan Szymborski: That’s not exactly the point, Ruiz’s contract is a fair price, but the Phils are now out of places to upgrade.
12:05
Dan Szymborski: They had a team OPS+ of 90 last year. If they’re in win-now mode, they need to upgrade.
12:05
Dan Szymborski: They essentially had two positions where a large spending upgrade was practical: RF and C
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Once they went with a second-tier RF option, then it was important for the Phils to go after McCann hard.
12:06
Comment From Guest
The Phils need to upgrade at SS. Rollins has been fading for years now. Trade him and get Stephen Drew?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: But they won’t.
12:06
Comment From Guest
Are you going to start putting together zips on December 1st or will the redsox be posted on Dec 1st?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Red Sox posted 12/1
12:07
Comment From Rob
High/Low estimates for Trout’s WAR in 2014 (barring injury)
12:07
Dan Szymborski: 13/0. Everybody’s got a downside.
12:07
Comment From Terrible Ted
Could it be a sign and trade?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: No
12:07
Comment From Guest
Where does Pierzynski land?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Someplace ridiculous. Maybe back to the Twins.
12:07
Comment From Ben
Do the teams that need a FA catcher have to be influenced by this new valuation or do other GMs ignore it as the Amaro Factor?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: It’s a reasonable valuation for Ruiz. Problem is the length of the commitment (they even made sure to get a club option for his age 38 season) and the lack of imagination.
12:08
Comment From Pat
Which Verlander do we see next year? 2012 of 2013?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: In the middle.
12:08
Comment From Guest
They won’t, but should they?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Probably, though he doesn’t have much trade value.
12:09
Comment From Rothfuss
What chance do you give of Jon Jay playing 130 games in CF next year for the Cardinals?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: 50/50. I think they’re going to want to see how Taveras ankle is.
12:10
Comment From Guest
Have the Jays officially walked away from Johnson
12:10
Dan Szymborski: Nothing official – qualifying offer, unlike old arbitration offers, do not preclude team from signing player.
12:10
Comment From ar
Stark: redsox were in it till the end, phils guarenteed third year and upped AAV to keep him.
12:10
Comment From Doctor Met
Fantasy football comment, another week of 20/20 hindsight madness. Gary Kubiak just torpedoed my hopes with his Amaro-esque logic.
12:11
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Case Keenum is going to be an awesome QB or anything, but at this point in a lost season, they need to be properly evaluating Keenum going forward when they make their offseason/draft plans.
12:11
Dan Szymborski: If Kubiak won’t do it, then Kubiak should be given his walking papers.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Even *Amaro* eventually realized that the Phillies needed to be seeing in the majors what they have in Asche rather than Young.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: If @#%$@#% Ruben Amaro eventually gets a lesson that you’re nut, it’s time to wear the dunce cap and sit in the corner.
12:12
Comment From Dr D
Will J Reddick be relevant for fantasy purposed in AL only
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Meh.
12:12
Comment From Preston
The Yankees signed Brendan Ryan and are still interested in Stephen Drew. Does this mean they’re finally giving up on Derek Jeter at SS, what would you place the over/under games started at SS by the Captain in 2014?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: 40.
12:13
Comment From Woo-Woo
If you were the Cubs, do you worry about your lineup being too-right handed in 2015?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: No. Lineup balance is something you worry about when you’re a very good team.
12:14
Comment From juan pierres mustache
pretty sure phillies fans are going through the 5 stages.
12:15
Dan Szymborski: 1. Curse Ruben Amaro. 2. Send angry e-mails to Ruben Amaro. 3. Call sportstalk radio about Ruben Amaro. 4. Stalk Ruben Amaro. 5. Ship Ruben Amaro to Iran with anti-Islam screed pinned to his shirt and wait.
12:15
Comment From Guest
Do you think Dexter Fowler gets traded?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: No.
12:15
Comment From Andrew
To be fair, Steamer and other projection systems view Ruiz 2014 as an improvement over Ruiz 2013. I don’t know that throwing money at McCann would be an actual material upgrade. Also possible that they could spend money on a CF and relegate Revere to 4th OF, no?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Possible, but I think it’s doubtful.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has it an upgrade too. But in their position, they need the best upgrades possible to be serious contenders. They have far less talent than the Braves or Nationals.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: If the Phils have decided to “go for it” their only real path is to put together an 82-85 win team and get lucky.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Not a 78-win team that gets REALLY lucky.
12:16
Comment From Guest
Hey Dan! Thanks for the chat. Do you think Mike Napoli gets a catcher rating for DMB purposes next year? He’s only a year removed from 70+ games there.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: He’ll get a rating, though not a good one.
12:16
Comment From Sox Fan
Will Jose Abreu get a useable Zip projection this year?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:17
Dan Szymborski: League-averageish.
12:17
Comment From Dave
Will any or all of Noah Syndergaard, Miguel Sano, Robert Stephenson and Addison Russell get projections this year?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: 1,2,4 absolutely will. Stephenson *probably*
12:19
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS translates Sano in Fort Myers at 249/320/502 and NB at 211/287/476
12:19
Comment From Guest
Are there any teams that would be interested in a package of Reyes and Bautista and what could the Jays get back, ie Cardinals or Pittsburg, with Toronto picking up part of Reyes salary. Bautista is a bargain in terms of salary.
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Depends on the package, of course. Teams should be interested if the Jays have decided to fold.
12:19
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
I’m late because I had a test on logic. But how can I trust a logician who scheduled a test during Symborskichat
12:19
Dan Szymborski: z!
12:20
Comment From Brad Wesley
What kind of year do you see Gyorko having next year? It seems the power is for real, but csn he make strides in BA and walk enough to be a top OBP league option?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: The parks always going to hurt him.
12:21
Comment From juan pierres mustache
I kinda think Kubiak had the plot of a sports movie in his head when he decided to switch back to Schaub. “The seemingly finished veteran came back and led his team to an unlikely playoff run, after which he and his beloved Coach became best friends forever.”
12:21
Dan Szymborski: If that game was a sports movie, it had a dark ending.
12:21
Comment From Marc
Here is a fun Amaro game to play – what contract would he have to give out to be fired?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Presumably, a smart contract will be the one that gets him axed
12:21
Comment From Seymour
Ike Davis for … ?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: President.
12:22
Comment From Northsider
Did you follow the Arizona Fall League? Any thoughts about what you saw?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: I do, but I haven’t watched *enough* to make useful new observations.
12:22
Comment From Guest
Do you participate in MOvember??
12:23
Dan Szymborski: No. To have a decent moustache for November, I would have had to start in January.
12:23
Comment From Nittwit
Hey Dan, would you please explain the origin and meaning of the “#cliffly” meme you’ve mentioned recently on Twitter. I must’ve missed that one.
12:23
Dan Szymborski: If you were on Twitter the night Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies, it was a crazy night.
12:23
Dan Szymborski: All sorts of news stories that turned out to be bogus and the constant mentions of a “mystery team”
12:24
Dan Szymborski: One of the most entertaining Twitter nights. So Twitter entertainment/bogus news stories are, to me, a cliffly.
12:24
Comment From Guest
Can the cubs be better than a .500 team in 2015? Some serious positional talent coming through the system between now and then…
12:24
Dan Szymborski: In 2015, it’s a possibility.
12:24
Comment From Bryan
Scherzer is a free agent after 2014. Cabrera is a free agent after 2015. In light of that fact, the rumors about Prince Fielder being on the block don’t seem that far-fetched. How much of Fielder’s salary will have the Tigers have to eat to trade Prince? If they ate half, that would free up $84 million for Scherzer/Cabrera extensions. Then, put Castellanos at third, Cabrera at first, V-Mart at DH.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I’m not convinced that the Tigers would do that and I think Castellanos to third, at least in Detroit, ain’t happening.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I think as long as Ilitch is alive, it’s pedal to the floor.
12:25
Comment From Woo-Woo
Back to the Cubs, They have a potential logjam in the middle infield with Alcantara, Baez, Bryant and Castro. It’s a healthy problem to have, but what do you think they’ll do there?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to tell because you don’t know what the exact situation will be at the time the the logjam needs to be resolved.
12:26
Comment From Justin
Is there any likelihood of the Dodgers making a move for someone other than Uribe to play 3B next year?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Dodgers seem crippled when they have moves they need to make that don’t involve simply throwing money around.
12:28
Dan Szymborski: I can see them signing Peralta for 3rd.
12:28
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think more creative options, like say trading for Kyle Seager or something, are likely.
12:28
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Do you think the real reason Rob Ford smoked crack is because JP Arencibia is still the Jays starting catcher?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: It’s a possibility. ThougH I think Arencibia being the starting catcher is more evidence that Anthopoulos was smoking crack.
12:29
Comment From ar
why are there so many old catchers? the pool of replacement players is way smaller?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: There have *always* been a lot of old catchers.
12:29
Comment From Brad Wesley
Can you give us a vague evaluation if abreu’s value for an auction league. I’m havi g a hard time valuing him.
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Whatever a league-averageish 1B goes for in your league
12:29
Comment From Rodney
1. Could Kinsler be traded w/o Rangers kicking in money? 2. Who is the most likely trade partner?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: I think the Rangers would kick in some, just to get a return. I’d love to see Kinsler at 2nd in Baltimore.
12:30
Comment From Guest No. 1
Team that take the biggest dive from 2013 to 2014?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: A little early until we see the rosters.
12:30
Comment From Brad Wesley
How many innings does Buchholz log this year, and do you anticipate some heavy regression? Or would a good wheb he’s healthy tag be more appropriate?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: I’ll say 140. Obviously some regression.
12:31
Comment From LB
Will Hanley Ramirez get a defensive rating at 3B this year, even though he only played SS last year?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: He played like 100 games at 3rd in 2012, so he’ll get one
12:31
Comment From Green Mountain Boy
Where does Ellsbury end up (Phil?) and what does he eventually get paid?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Low 9-figures, Nationals.
12:32
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
What does Zips say about Bautista next year and is it time to trade him?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Stay tuned!
12:32
Comment From David
To be forecast as a .500 team, what would the Twins have to add to their starting pitching?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Tanaka, Jimenez, Kuroda
12:32
Comment From John
Which former ace will provide the most value? Johnson, Halladay, or Haren?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Haren most on average, the other 2 more upside, especially Johnson.
12:33
Comment From Andrew
There are other ways for the Phillies to improve with the like 5 million plus they saved from Ruiz to McCann though… they could throw that money at an injured setup guy! (It is more fun to attack Rube then defend; I’m jumping back on this side.)
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Defending Amaro puts one in a more difficult position than the Czechs after the Munich Agreement.
12:33
Comment From Dave
Do you have a preferred candidate to be the next commissioner?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Does it have to be realistic?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: I’d go with Mark Cuban, just because he’d infuriate owners.
12:34
Comment From Preston
The Orioles shopping Matt Wieters, real or fake rumor? Should they be?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: They’re not desperate to trade him, but they’ll listen.
12:34
Comment From Tim
What do you think the Braves should do this offseason?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Taking a pass on this one as I have a piece tomorrow on one of the things they should consider.
12:35
Comment From Guest
How badly will Josh Johnson’s off year hurt his 2014 Zips projection?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Well, it didn’t imrpove it!
12:35
Comment From Guest No. 1
Will the reds get creative with their batting order or bat Hamilton-Cozart 1-2 and have 2 sub .290 OBP guys in front of Votto
12:35
Dan Szymborski: The latter.
12:35
Comment From Dave
Okay, last ZiPS question for me. Chance of Kris Bryant, Mark Appel or Jonathan Gray getting a projection this year?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: They would only get a projection in March if they’re serious threats to make team.
12:36
Comment From Adam
Do you think Kevin Gausman will have major league success? Over time I’ve become very weary of Orioles pitching prospects.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Yes.
12:37
Comment From Guest
Who do you think will be the first player from last years draft to make the bigs?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: I’m going to go with Colin Moran. The Marlins have shown that they’re willing to rush players so that they can show the dwindling fan base some token effort
12:38
Comment From Guest
I’m on FanGraphs so I obviously appreciate statistical analysis in sports. One of the most rational arguments often made about a player is their ceiling/floor argument of “somewhere in the middle.” That said, I feel like mainstream stats guys will say things like “Clutch isn’t real/doesn’t exist.” Why can’t clutch be a middle? Why are stats guys so quick to shoe away something difficult to quantify that most fans/media likely overblow?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: The problem is that while measuring the abstract concept of clutch ability is difficult, measuring the actual concept of players systematically playing better worse in repeatable situations that are described as clutch situations is not.
12:40
Dan Szymborski: And there’s ample evidence out there that outperforming in RISP or late & close or runners on to the extent that it has any kind of predictive value doesn’t really work out as a concept
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Which is also fairly logical – the very grueling winnowing out process that starts in little league and goes through high school, college, minors, to the majors is likely to weed out guys that can’t compete in high-pressure situations in the same way it weeds out batters with poor hand-eye coordination or pitchers that can’t throw 80.
12:42
Comment From Shawn
What sort of upside does Smyly have if he’s given a shot in the rotation next year.
12:42
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be average-ish in the rotation.
12:42
Comment From Guest
Do you think I could get an interview for Amaro’s job based on the fact I’ve won my fantasy league 6 years in a row?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: Do you have graphic photos of David Montgomery’s bestiality orgy? I’m pretty sure that’s how Amaro keeps his job.
12:43
Comment From Brad Wesley
What did Masterson do to make such a drastic improvement in his ability to strike people out, and to what degree can he keep it up?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: K rate changes don’t tend to be all that fluky which is good news for Masterson
12:46
Dan Szymborski: I swear I read a piece at some point that he changed the grip on his slider, but no way I’ll probably find it within the few minutes I have to answer questions in a chat
12:46
Dan Szymborski: He’s always had that heavy sinker that’s like hitting a bowling balll.
12:46
Comment From Zincman
Is Profar still a star-in-waiting
12:46
Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:46
Comment From Josh
What free agent pitcher has the best year next year?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: Tanaka, though it may be in Japan. After that, possibly Kuroda.
12:46
Comment From Dan
Will the following AFL guys get projections: Billy Burns, Mookie Betts, Mike Ohlman, Nick Wittgren (and Adalberto Mejia?)
12:47
Dan Szymborski: The hitters should. The pitchers may.
12:47
Comment From Zincman
Any hope for Ackley?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:47
Comment From Guest
What team do you think wins the bidding for Tankaka and how much do you think the winning bid will be or do you think that MLB wont be able to fix the posting process?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Given MLB’s mess, I’m not at all confident that it will be resolved in time for this offseason
12:48
Comment From David
Please plug John Sickels’ personal concussion story–
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Honeslty, I had not seen this!
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I mean, I remember he had a concussion, but did not realize he was writing about it
12:49
Comment From jda
How does ZiPS handle a case like Roy Oswalt where the FIP has been nice for the past two years even as the ERAs (and overall performance) have been dreadful?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS will get more and more suspicious over FIP underperformance over time.
12:50
Comment From Jake
You Tweeting about the St. Louis City Museum last night is making me seriously consider spending an afternoon there when I’m back home for Christmas
12:50
Dan Szymborski: it’s a lot of fun!
12:50
Dan Szymborski: There’s lots of climbing and crawling and stuff. As I noted on Twitter, my knee still pops occasionally.
12:51
Dan Szymborski: My knee hurt like hell, I was crawling through this little cave thing with steps and my foot got caught and I twisted my leg and my knee hurt like hell afterwards
12:51
Dan Szymborski: My friend Dan had a pre-wedding receiption at the city museum with open bar
12:51
Dan Szymborski: So a bunch of drunk 25-40 year olds were set loose on a 3 story obstacle course.
12:52
Dan Szymborski: The only thing I don’t do at the city museum is on the roof, there’s this bus that’s bolted to the building but half hanging off so you can go to the front of the bus and see all the way down tot he ground.
12:52
Dan Szymborski: *That* I dont’ do
12:52
Comment From Eastern NC
What does the prognosis for Machado look like? Castro?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Machado should be OK as the knee isn’t as serious as it could be.
12:52
Comment From Eastern NC
Is Wil Myers the next Pujols or A-Rod?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: No
12:52
Comment From RotoLando
Spaghetti-O’s or Beef-A-Roni?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Spaghetti-O’s. Meat that comes from cans is always a little dicey.
12:53
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12:54
Dan Szymborski: I seriously woke up with this commercial in my head a couple weeks ago even though I hadn’t heard it in 20 years
12:54
Comment From Eastern NC
Is there any measurable difference for manager changes for ZIPS?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: No
12:54
Comment From Dan
Do you buy into the backlash to negative camapigning re: Jack Morris? It seems like an extension of the “civility” argument that never really advanced sabermetric awareness in the public sphere/or affected any change in attitudes.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: I don’t buy it. Civility has never won a public argument.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: No idea has ever gotten into the public mind being presented by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Droopy
12:56
Comment From Marcus A.
Anyone that has stuck out to you early in your ZiPS projections as being too high or too low?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Official ones aren’t crunched yet. I’ve had a lot of minor league text parsing to do
12:56
Comment From Guest No. 1
Are the Yankees knida screwed since they have to wait 2 months to find out whats A-Rod deal?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, though they were sort of screwed anyway.
12:56
Comment From RSquared
Suzuki or Hanigan?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: I’d personally prefer Hanigan
12:57
Comment From Tom
Best guess on Cards’ 2014 SS?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: I’d take field over Kozma, but Kozma still has the edge as being on the roster and the guy the Cardinals already played despite all evidence suggesting they shouldn’t
12:57
Comment From Guest No. 1
If you win the lottery and bought a team, would you insist on having final say on all trades?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: I would, but I wouldn’t buy a team if I won the lottery
12:58
Dan Szymborski: If I have a quarter of a billion dollars, I feel that the money is best used to avoid headaches.
12:59
Comment From Guest
Do you think Trevor Rosenthal should stick at Closer or given a shot at being a SP. I know next year might be tough with all St Louis SP depth.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: I believe he should get a shot at being an SP, but it would most likely come after a trade.
12:59
Comment From Bryan
Do you think the Tigers can afford big contracts for Verlander, Fielder, Scherzer and Cabrera? Or, will they let Scherzer walk? I assume an extension for Cabrera is a foregone conclusion.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: As I noted above, I think Tigers are all-in until Ilitch either dies or gets his WS.
12:59
Comment From Edinson Volquez
How bad will I be this year?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: If you actually play, pretty much so.
1:00
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
As if monitoring this chat, Dave just posted an article defending Mr. Amaro.
1:00
Comment From Guest
Maybe clutch shouldn’t be measured with predictive value, then? FIP has no predictive value and is thought of as a good stat. Can’t a player gaining confidence in past clutch situations be all the predictive value needed for clutch?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: FIP has no predictive value?
1:00
Comment From guayzimi
My understanding is that you will be releasing Cardinals’ ZIPS 3rd overall? This is two spots too low my friend. I see you’ve bought into the widespread hatred of what should be the model franchise in the game of baseball – I can see no other reason for making us wait like this.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Last year was San Francisco and Oakland 1/2 (as a result of trivia)
1:01
Dan Szymborski: and the other 28 spots were chosen by =rand() in Excel.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: This year is the opposite, except for ones I gave out as rewards for things.
1:01
Comment From Jake
I’ve been before, it’s just been way too long
1:01
Comment From Seymour
is it me, or do these chats get more insufferable each week? more real answers, less pithy attempts at humor please.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: You’re obviously not that familiar with me, then. I have always been exactly this insufferable.
1:02
Comment From jda
Is ZiPS getting incremental improvements each year or so, or do you envision the model ever folding in major new features?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS always has improvements, both incremental and larger ones. There’s always a beta build of ZiPS with more stuff than the ZiPS that are released with because I’m very conservative at making sure things work before putting them into the “official” build
1:03
Comment From RotoLando
Ok, what would you buy if you won the lottery? Besides, Spaghetti-O’s?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: A larger house. I’d like to have a proper acoustically designed room and a bosendorfer grand and a proper music listening room. Oh, and a pool
1:05
Dan Szymborski: And I’ve always wanted a house with secret passages. I’ve never found one.
1:05
Comment From Ben Cherington
Do you think Jackie Bradley Jr is the opening day CF for me, or do i need to go out and sign an OF?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: I think Bradley’s very possible.
1:05
Comment From jda
You wouldn’t even buy the Orioles? Even if current ownership was convinced Machado belonged at third base and you were his only hope?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: No, I’m a baseball writer. I dont’ want less to bitch about.
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Job-wise, I’d want to do exactly what I’m doing now.
1:06
Comment From Dan
Will you post the MLE’s in an excel spreadsheet when they’re done like in years past? I always appreciate that.
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I need to do it – always slow at hat.
1:06
Comment From Gareth
Who would you choose out of Dan Haren and Josh Johnson for 2014?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Haren if I’m competitive, Johnson if I’m not
1:06
Comment From Gareth
Tim Hudson. Why are so many teams interested? The guy is nearly 40 coming off a serious Ankle injury.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Look at the market! There’s not a lot of excitement
1:07
Comment From Gareth
Ubaldo Jiminez – Trustworthy going forward? Do you see a team going nuts and splurging big dollars on him?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Not trustworthy, but he’s got one of the more interesting upsides of the pitchers available
1:07
Comment From Guest
Is there anywhere to see last years zips?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: There was a google docs link, but I’m not sure where it is
1:08
Comment From dbet
In reference to Trevor Rosenthal, would staying in the bullpen be a bad career move? I would think fewer innings(albeit throwing harder) would lead to less wear and tear. If he continues to perform he could get solid contracts for his career.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: He’d be more valuable as a starter.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Closers don’t exactly have great shelf lives either.
1:08
Comment From Gareth
Are Detroit on the decline? Do you see the AL becoming more of a 3 horse race in 2014?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Tigers are declining.
1:08
Comment From Jay
Re: Cardinals SS. Can’t imagine the odds of Kozma being much greater than 5%. Cards have loads of money to spend and Mo has repeatedly identified SS as basically the only glaring hole. If Cards fans see Koz on opening day lineup card there might be a revolt.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: That’s what you would hope, but the Cardinals have clearly evaluated Kozma more generously than reality.
1:09
Comment From Justin
More humor, LESS answering questions. It’s November. There isn’t anything going on. There’s only so many times you can insult Ruben Amaro.
1:09
Comment From kevinthecomic
Re: the Masterson question. I seem to recall an article on fangraphs which showed that Masterson lead the league in “getting squeezed” by the umpire prior to the 2013 season. Part of the reason seemed to be his quirky delivery and part of the reason seemed to be that Carlos Santana couldn’t frame Roger Rabbit. Maybe the Indians sent tape to the league asking them to get the umps to stop punishing their guy?!?!?!
1:10
Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to look that up. His slider *did* look sharper, so maybe I’m mis-remembering the series of evnets?
1:10
Comment From Dan
Do you/Zips think Andy Pettite should reconsider his retirement? I’d imagine his numbers are as good as ever, considering he only had a couple borderline top of rotation years at his peak.
1:10
Dan Szymborski: I think he’d be fine in 2014, but if he’s just not interested, no sense in pitching until he sucks.
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Chipper would’ve been fine in 2013.
1:11
Comment From Gareth
Your thoughts on Terry Francona getting Manager of the year over John Farrell?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: I actually pitched Girardi over either in the ESPN panel. The Yankees should have degenerated into fistfights and early 1990s Mets craptasticness with that roster.
1:12
Comment From Guest
Why hasn’t there been much Reyes trade speculation in regards to STL SS situation?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: The Jays haven’t made it clear that they’re folding.
1:12
Comment From Archer
McGowan (injuries) and Cecil (performance) both had bounce back seasons in the bullpen. Do you see them either one getting a chance to join the rotation, sometime in 2014?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe so.
1:12
Comment From Guest
Where do we find the order of last years ZiPS release?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: FG archives working backwards? I have to find it msyself
1:13
Comment From Gareth
Why does Austin Jackson get so much love? Sure he’s a good defender but he was awful offensively in 2013. And Why doesn’t he steal?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: 272/337/417 ain’t awful for a CF by any stretch of the imagination
1:14
Dan Szymborski: On that note, we’re past 1:00 and it’s time for me to shuffle off for the week. Thanks for joining me for this insufferable chat!
1:14
Dan Szymborski: As always, you can find my work over at ESPN.com, with chats and projections at FG and DSzymborski on Twitter.
1:14
Dan Szymborski: And on radio programs in which producers want to get their hosts chatting with a madman.
1:15
Comment From dbet
Can you remember any ZIPS projections that you thought were too wild and ended up being close?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: I was worried that Darvish was too aggressively good last year.



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Dave is a co-founder of USSMariner.com and contributes to the Wall Street Journal.

6 Responses to “Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/18/13”

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  1. Richard says:

    Will Josh Reddick be fantasy relevant for AL only
    It’s reasonable to say 2014 would be between 2012 and 2013, but those are miles apart

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. kevinthecomic says:

    Re: the Masterson question. I seem to recall an article on fangraphs which showed that Masterson lead the league in “getting squeezed” by the umpire prior to the 2013 season. Part of the reason seemed to be his quirky delivery and part of the reason seemed to be that Carlos Santana couldn’t frame Roger Rabbit. Maybe the Indians sent tape to the league asking them to get the umps to stop punishing their guy?!?!?!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Mark in TO says:

    Dan Szymborski:
    “272/337/417 ain’t awful for a CF by any stretch of the imagination”
    Colby Rasmus 2013:
    276/338/501
    Everybody on Fangraphs the last 3 years:
    “Colby Rasmus Sucks!”

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • pmacho says:

      That’s 2013 though. He surpassed a .320 wOBA twice in his career (albeit a young one). He had a .297 wOBA last year. That’s pretty bad…

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Colin says:

    Love the JV questions, “which Verlander?” Uh he finished 7th in pitcher WAR in 2013. He was really a lot better this past season than people seem to think, I suppose only in relation to the high standard of the past several seasons.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Jason says:

    Colin is correct; to me, Verlander had only a tiny drop-off in 2013. Still the 2nd best MLB pitcher after Kershaw.

    The 2014 Tigers’ prognosis boils down to Prince Fielder and his zero RBI postseason. If Dombrowski thinks he will bounce back, OK – Prince has to prove it.

    If he thinks Prince will never regain his Brewers form, then he has to trade Scherzer with Fielder and find a sucker GM (wowed by “Cy Young! And Home Run Derby champ too!”) to take on Prince’s contract. This would also allow Miggy to move back to 1B, which is best for his long-term health and productivity.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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