Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/13/14

11:58
Dan Szymborski: Oh GOD I DONT LIKE CHANGE DO NOT WANT
11:59
Dan Szymborski: OH GOD THERE IS TEXT AND BUTTONS AND POPUPS ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS IS A MAD HOUSE
11:59
Comment From GSon
Can we make this chat an Arod Free Zone?
11:59
Dan Szymborski: Ha!
11:59
Comment From Ian
I commend you for not having smashed anything last week on the ESPN chat. That we saw.
12:00
Dan Szymborski: It was a combination of bourbon and realizing I don’t *have* to flip out at everything and only need to flip out at most things.

12:01
Comment From Jesse
Hey Dan, I was wondering if you could provide us some ZIP thoughts on the OAK rotation, specifically Gray and Parker. Is Gray predicted to be the real deal? What sshould we expect from him? Also, does Straily stick? Other question was regarding Paxton. Any chance he sticks and succeeds in the rotation. What does your crystal ball tell you?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: Not giving out juicy spoilers like *that* without a good news-related reason! As for Paxton, I think he’ll be an adequate #5 this year but I don’t think he’s quite ready to be more.
12:02
Comment From Dave
It’s my birthday! Gregory Polanco projection for my gift?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: I’m Danta Claus, not Santa Claus. Where Santa Claus gives rewards out for Christmas, Danta Claus gives out punishments on unbirthdays.
12:03
Comment From StevePete
How many wins do the Rangers lose with Holland out half the season?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: One or two. He’s not Darvish.
12:03
Comment From yanks fan
Can we get a Yangervis Solarte projection since the Yankees already came out?
12:05
Dan Szymborski: See, now that’s something I can do!
12:05
Dan Szymborski: Solarte in New YOrk – 265/303/376, 83 OPS+
12:05
Comment From Jesse
So any chance you could just give your non Zip thoughts on Gray? :)
12:05
Dan Szymborski: Like. Actually, I think I may have tweeted out Sonny Gray for some reason at some point.
12:06
Comment From Daryl
In DMBO how would Carlos Gomez play in right or left field? Would you consider a deal acquiring him for Jackie Bradley?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: I’m pretty sure he’s only getting a CF rating. You guys should know better about asking me about DMB defensive projections that I’m not even going to think about for a month.
12:07
Comment From GSon
Is Boston really not interested in Tanaka or are they lurking in the weeds?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: I get the feeling they’re out on this one.
12:07
Comment From John H.
Has Granderson lost significant value now that he is a Met? Worth keeping over other guys like Swisher, Chris Carter, Markakis?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Over Markakis certainly. Hurts his value.
12:07
Comment From Flamin Royd
Your name is Szymborski, Szymborski. Your wife is Bunny.
12:07
Comment From GSon
I’ve never seen so little activity w/r to free agent pitchers.. Does the compensation for a declined QO and the Tanaka Sweepstakes make GM’s this timid? or is there something that’s missing?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: There are always a few players that turn out to have been seriously deluded as to what kind of contracts they could fetch.
12:09
Dan Szymborski: At this point, probably safer to wait until the bidding losers have post-Tanaka depression.
12:09
Comment From Percy
Yankees 3B options for 2014? Any prospects down on the farm or do they need to go buy one?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Not many good ones, honestly.
12:09
Comment From Andrew
Should baseball players in the future consider organizing and getting a signed document with MLB to guarantee their rights and privileges to avoid situations like we saw in the last week with ARod?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: They probably should have considered doing it before Selig put the MLBPA in the weakest position since the 1960s.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: From a tactical standpoint, the MLBPA is in a similar place to Germany in March 1945, futilely waiting for Felix Steiner to save them.
12:12
Comment From Conrad
Who is your favorite under-appreciated hitter?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: J.P. Arencibia. OK, not really, but I want to give readers a heart attack.
12:13
Dan Szymborski: I think Will Clark’s in the underappreciated category now. Everyone was in awe of how pretty his swing was, but it’s generally forgotten now.
12:13
Comment From Guest
Hola Dan, are you following a particular order for your ZIPS projection releases or just as news comes up. Was curious when the Angels projection might be out
12:14
Dan Szymborski: It’s last year’s order flipped over. New random order next year, with first 2 teams (Braves, Rays) rewarded from Twitter trivia.
12:14
Comment From Chris
Is the Dodgers pursuit of Tanaka related to No Kershaw extension? Do you think Kershaw signs elsewhere?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Nah, the Dodgers can spend a crazy amountof money.
12:15
Comment From 12 Years a Dave
So when are those Rockies Zips coming???
12:15
Dan Szymborski: A certain rum-pated jackanapes is working on them right now!
12:15
Comment From Stephen
If the Angels vastly underperform for the next two years, could you see them flipping Mike Trout to the highest bidder? Or do you see them holding onto him as long as they can?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll hold onto him. Trout’s so valuable that I can’t imagine any team being able to give a fair package.
12:16
Comment From Dave
Are you surprised at how well Syndergaard projects this year? Assuming ZiPS has a crush on him and Matt Barnes too.
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Not really. Some of the better prospects always get usable projections, else they wouldn’t be among the better prospects!
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Plus, his name kinda looks like Sindar, which means he’s an elf or something, which helps.
12:17
Comment From Jim
From the BNSL archives, we do have this: Sonny Gray(OAK): 109 ERA+
12:18
Comment From Guest
So, You like the hall of fame ballot?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: ZIM SMASH!!!!!!
12:18
Dan Szymborski: That’s actually my steam nickname right now. ZIM SMASH!!!!oneone
12:18
Comment From Eminor3rd
OMG Zim, seriously, I found the best Twitter account in the world: https://twitter.com/CyborgHanson48 I know this message reads like linkspam but it isn’t. Click that.
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Already following.
12:19
Dan Szymborski: CYBORG HANSON TOMMY ?@CyborgHanson48 30 Nov 12
EMOTIONS ‘SADNESS’ & ‘JOY’ EXPRESSED IN HIGH QUANTITIES HIGHLIGHTS MY OWN ARTIFICIALITY AND ULTIMATE DISCONNECT FROM YOU STRANGE HUMANS
12:19
Comment From Guest
Why would MLB ever even announce a positive test anymore? They can just hire a PI, find and talk to his dealer, and suspend him to infinity and beyond.
12:19
Dan Szymborski: The Yankees are being dumb if they’re not spiking Jeter’s drink with HGH as a hedge in case he doesn’t bounce bcak.
12:19
Comment From Grack Zeinke
what do you make of this ‘Stephen Drew to the Mets is so obvious’ that keeps making the rounds of the inter webs?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: I think Drew’s kinda screwed by not taking the QO. He’s not good enough to sign to a 4-year deal and in a 1 or 2 year deal, even a 2nd rounder loss can sap a big chunk of the value.
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Strictly speaking, a free agent should be nearly 100% confident of getting a 3-year or longer contract in order to turn down a QO.
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Take a team that *would* lose a first-rounder to sign Drew. That’s $15 million or so in value. You think Drew’s going to sign for 1-year, $0 million or 2-years, $10 million?
12:22
Comment From Guest
Is Scott Sizmore-to-NYY intriguing at all, from a roto/stats perspective? Since you’ve done NYY ZiPS already, care to offer up a slash line prediction?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: Grrr, hold on.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: 233/313/377, 87 OPS+, below-average D
12:25
Comment From plano
With the Derek Holland injury, would a trade of one or two years of 32-year-old righthander Jake Peavy for one or two years of 32-year-old outfielder Alex Rios make sense for either team givern the similar contracts of each player?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: Rather have Peavy than Rios. I’d do it if I’m Texas, woudln’t if I’m Boston.
12:25
Comment From Darren
why the big variance between ZIPs and Steamer on Reds pitchers. Steamer hates then, Zips loves them.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: Couldn’t tell you. I do not have access to Steamer.
12:26
Comment From Fellow Orioles Fan
Hi Dan…I know I’ve read on chats here that all major league teams employ very intelligent people. But when it comes to say the Orioles who are your favorite team and haven’t done anything this off season or were potentially making a big mistake when they were linked to Nelson Cruz, do you try to get someone’s ear in the organization to offer your opinion just in case they haven’t thought about what they’re doing wrong? Not sure if you’ve done so, thought about doing so or don’t b/c there is some ‘code’ that prevents business from conflicting with personal interests. Or are the two entirely separate? Just wondering b/c I would think that you’d have a better shot getting someone’s attention as a legitimate saber and ESPN guy than an “ordinary” fan… Thanks!
12:27
Dan Szymborski: No, I do not offer any kind of specific opinion/advice to baseball insiders that i haven’t expressed publicly, nor will I provide any kind of even small consultation, free or paid. That would be a conflict with my job.
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Obviously, I have thought about what the O’s (and other teams) will do, but I state those publicly and on the record.
12:28
Dan Szymborski: I’m not working in media to get a job in baseball, I’m working in media to have a job in media. The cereal *is* the prize.
12:29
Comment From Rated Rookie
Will Addison Russell arrive in Oakland this year? Which GM is giddier over his SS prospect, Cherington or Beane?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Unless he absolutely torches the minors this year, I don’t think the A’s promote him super-aggressively.
12:29
Comment From Grack Zeinke
Follow up Drew comment – isn’t he more obvious fit for Yankees now? 3B, and SS insurance rolled into one *and* short porch in RF as added bonus. If they whiff on Tanaka, is Drew logical fall back? You think Boras has same plan in mind?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: Drew’s one of the best fits for the Yankees remaining. Certainly will be talked about if Tanaka falls through and he’s still on the market.
12:31
Comment From Andrew
Was actually joking around on my baseball players organizing question and getting signed rights; theoretically they have this document and are organized, but would be hard to tell either from this situation.
12:31
Comment From Zach
Anything to suggest Cain won’t return to “normal”?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: Not really. If I’m the Giants, I’m in concern mode about Cain, not worry mode or panic mode.
12:31
Comment From Rated Rookie
How much BA improvement would Evan Gattis net if he laid off soft stuff low and away?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: Hard to put an exact number to this kind of thing offhand. Changing zone weaknesses sounds easier than it is.
12:31
Comment From STiVo
Someone I work with looks exactly like Waluigi. Should I alert the person to the resemblance?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Obviously. He may not have met his brother Wario.
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Shouldn’t it be Wauigi? He’s Wario not Wamario.
12:32
Dan Szymborski: And sweet jesus h. monkeyballs was Nintendo lazy with the naming.
12:33
Dan Szymborski: If they put an evil Donkey Kong in next Donkey Kong Country, what are they going to name him? Bad Donkey Kong?
12:33
Comment From roseau
Given each team’s respective needs, what about a trade of six years of switch-hitting Seattle infielder Nick Franklin for six years of switch-hitting Minnesota outfielder Aaron Hicks? Oliver projects a five-year WAR of 14.7 for Franklin and 14.8 for Hicks.
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Oliver might do that, but I wouldn’t.
12:33
Comment From Zach
Homer Baily or Iwakuma for 2014?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Iwakuma.
12:33
Comment From The Oriole Bird
What are the odds that the Orioles acquire one of the big non-Tanaka free-agent pitchers remaining (Burnett, Jimenez, Garza, etc.)?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Pulling a % out of my butt, 2%.
12:34
Comment From John H.
Besides Tanaka and Abreu… intenational free signing from 2013 that will have the biggest impact short and long-term…
12:34
Dan Szymborski: I think Guerrero will be solid.
12:34
Comment From StevePete
Is Ellsbury/McCann/Beltran going to underperform in NY based on last years numbers?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Beltran underperforming, but mostly due to age-related risk
12:34
Comment From Ringtone Composer
I’ve been rereading Moneyball recently. Great book–but it seems like Lewis probably took a lot of creative license in describing the trade talks between Beane and the other GMs (particularly Omar Minaya). Is Minaya really as dumb as Lewis makes him out to be?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: Haven’t met him, so I can’t tell you that for sure. There’s a wide variance of opinion on Minaya.
12:35
Comment From JT
Bud Selig hasn’t failed a test and his terms of employment/collective bargaining agreement doesn’t allow me to do it, but I would love to associate with a known criminal to suspend Bud out of sheer hate.
12:35
Comment From Mike
Jedd Gyorko got a WAR projection of 2.5 over about 550AB’s. What are we looking like for Anthony Rendon? Better than Gyorko?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: A little lower on the WAR, simply because long-term health still more concern for REndon
12:36
Comment From GSon
Do the moves made by the Twins ( rebuilding their pitching staff) and the Royals put the AL Central into a “meat grinding” / “tough as naila” division that any one of four teams can win, in your humble opinion?.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: No.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: The Tigers are still the easy favorite, even if the whole bullpen/Fister shuffle was idiotic.
12:37
Dan Szymborski: Then the Indians and Royals in the unlikely but possible.
12:37
Dan Szymborski: While the White Sox will mostly suck and the Twins will simply generally suck.
12:37
Comment From Ringtone Composer
If you were running the Yankees, how strongly would you consider the option of simply releasing ARod? Yes, you’d still owe him about $61 million for 2015-17.
12:37
Dan Szymborski: Don’t see the point really. Might as well see what he can do in Spring 2015 first.
12:38
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he’s embarrassing, but pictures of A-Rod spending the 2015 season in St. Tropez on the Yankees dime will also be embarrassing.
12:38
Comment From Eminor3rd
Tanaka will sign with the Yankees. Among the teams that can spend the most, no one needs him more than NYY.
12:38
Comment From key west
Does Seattle DH/1B Jesus Montero have any trade value? For example, would the Miami Marlins consider five years of Montero and six years of shortstop prospect Chris Taylor for six years of outfielder Jake Marisnick and one or two years of surplus catcher Jeff Mathis?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: No. Montero’s value isn’t just in the toilet, it’s already at a sewage treatment plant.
12:39
Comment From Curtis
HOF aside (or included, I guess), how will MLB represent the “Steroid Era” in say 50 years? denial? acceptance? any of the other 10 steps to recovery?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: In the long-term, the 1960s to 2000s will be seen as the same drug use era, because all the writers who forgive amphetamine use while compare steroid use to the holocaust will all have shuffled off this mortal coil.
12:40
Comment From Guest
So, before the Rockies Zips are released, I must ask you, why do you hate the Rockies? J/K.
12:40
Comment From Progression
Do you see Brandon Belt taking a big step forward next year? Final two months last year were great, first four, not so much…
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Big step forward? Nah. He’ll be really darn good though.
12:40
Comment From Ringtone Composer
This Yankees team is really, really brittle right? And I don’t just mean old and injury-prone. I mean that if they don’t get production from their top guys, they have zero chance of contending… right?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Pretty much. If that top tier doesn’t produce, they win 73 games.
12:40
Comment From Billy Jo Robidoux
CyborgHanson48 is never better than when describing the “ninny whiffswings” of Reyes and Wright
12:40
Comment From Guest
Who screwed up worse, K. Morales, S. Drew, or N Cruz, by turning down a QO
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Morales
12:41
Comment From Closers
Please rank: Kimbrel, Chapman, Jansen, Holland.
12:41
Dan Szymborski: About that order, though I’d put 3/4 as a tie.
12:41
Comment From Ian
Would ZIM SMASH take the intercontinental belt from Dayn Perry?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: I better, I outweight Dayn.
12:41
Comment From Zach
Thoughts on Dan LeBetard’s ballot and the resulting revocation of voting rights?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: Hang on
12:43
Comment From Grack Zeinke
yeah, like it would have been so bad for Drew to have taken the 1 yr and 14M…
12:43
Comment From to be precise
The Mets would lose only their third-round draft pick by signing Stephen Drew (their first-round pick is protected and their second-round pick was forfeited with the signing of Curtis Granderson).
12:45
Dan Szymborski: I still get a draft pick around 80 is still in the $3-5 million range. That’s a lot when talking a 1 or 2 year contract.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Especially given that the Mets are not in a win now mode.
12:46
Dan Szymborski: OK, turn down your volumes if you are in class or work, I’m posting something in 30 seconds.
12:46
Comment From Compton
Since you already did the Yankees ZiPS, can you give us a back of the envelope Steve Balboni 2014 projection?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: At this point, ZiPS would have his playing time down to 0.
12:46
Comment From Bret
Hey Dan – I have two questions regarding the Blue Jays: 1) Why haven’t they signed Ubaldo Jimenez yet? They seem like a perfect match. 2) Why are the Jays telling us they can go into the year with Ryan Goins as their 2B, considering it’s mid-January and basically every other option is off the table, asides for Nick Franklin.
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Honest answer? I don’t have the foggiest clue what the Jays are thinking about.
12:47
Dan Szymborski: They’re a hard team to figure out and Double A likes misdirection.
12:47
:
12:49
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Baby you’re a rich Dan, baby you’re a rich Dan, baby you’re a rich Dan too
12:49
Comment From Tom
Are you excited in anyway for SteamOS or at the least the Steam Controller?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I’m not really the market for this. I build my own rigs and I have a 30-inch monitor on my desk.
12:51
Dan Szymborski: And I don’t need a controller. My Logitech that’s a total ripoff of the PS2 controller, works just fine.
12:51
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
What’s going to be the biggest story between now and Tanaka signing?
12:51
Dan Szymborski: A-Rod angles.
12:51
Comment From Vic
Billy Butler is ranked 15th overall by Baseball America in their Fantasy publication? How is this possible?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Did the Royals stealthily give Butler 20 games at shortstop without anyone noticing?
12:52
Comment From Curious
Would Cashman and Yankeedom spontaneously combust if the Red Sox stole Tanaka ?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: If they didn’t combust after this year, it’s not happening.
12:52
Comment From Jeff
What do you make of Jason Heyward going forward? I always forget if you’re a fantasy guy or not, but if I can keep him at the expense of Shelby Miller I should right? I really love Miller though…
12:53
Dan Szymborski: The thing about Heyward, unless you’re in an OBP league, he’s better in real life than fantasy. Fantasy doesn’t care he’s a terrific defensive outfielder.
12:54
Comment From bucs_lose_again
you catch the GoT trailer yet???
12:54
Dan Szymborski: No. I don’t like trailers. Why do I want the wait for something I’m going to see anyway more excruciating?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: When I go to a restaurant, I don’t want the waiter to bring me pictures of what I’m going to eat. I WANT MY GODDAMN FOOD
12:55
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Who is the David Bowie of baseball?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Good at everything, lasts forever? Carlos Beltran?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Don’t know who would be a comp for androgynous album covers.
12:56
Comment From Erich
Do the Yankees actually give a shit about staying under the luxury tax? Or if Tanaka wants to play for NYY, do they say to hell with it and give him a ludicrous deal?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: I think there’s an organizational split.
12:56
Comment From Curious
Is it a stretch to compare the negotiations of Tanaka to Teix ? Red Sox linked forever then the Yankees swoop in ? I can see the Red Sox doing the same.
12:56
Comment From Rated Rookie
What would you project Seattle’s record to be if they land Tanaka? If they don’t? What degree of apoplexy do you predict from NY if he does end up a Mariner?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: 83-84? The M’s needed a lot more than Cano.
12:57
Comment From BobbyS
Probably Wadonkey Kong
12:57
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Can you do another music thingy sometime between now and April because at noon on Mondays I’m sitting alone in a quiet room
12:57
Dan Szymborski: I will at some point this year. One a year most likely. Possibly during the late Jan/early Feb doldrums.
12:57
Comment From Chone Figgins
What are my chances of making a successful comeback.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: A *little* bit better than my chance of being elected president in 2016 under the FUCK YOU AMERICA party banner.
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Assuming a successful comeback means coming back to when he was good, not just his recent years.
1:01
Comment From Daryl
Was there a projection for Yorman that was left off the Reds?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Forgot Yorman, haven’t fixed it yet.
1:01
Comment From Malone
how excited are you that Kate Upton and Verlander are back together!? If those two crazy kids can’t make it, who can?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Kate Upton and Szymborski. Duh.
1:01
Comment From Eastern NC
If the 1995 Indians had won the Series, would Thome, Vizquel, Lofton, Manny, Bell, Hershiser be shoo in hall of famers?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Probably not. The Hall is too broken to even give borderline players a dumb ring-related boost.
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Not that Thome is borderline. If the Canadian border was the Hall of Fame border, Thome would be in Iqaluit.
1:03
Comment From kevinthecomic
Is there anything to stories like this, or are they usually bunk?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: Most of my stories are made up. I didn’t really go to Albania with Randy Velarde, that was just a dream.
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Oh
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Now I see – CiL gives me ethings in wrong order now
1:05
Comment From kevinthecomic
Cardinals coaches corrected a flaw in John Axford’s delivery at the end of the 2013 season.
The coaches filled Axford in on the secret that he had been tipping his pitches for years. Once the issue was brought to his attention and he tweaked his delivery, he posted a 1.74 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 11/3 K/BB ratio over 10 1/3 innings at the end of the season, and followed that up with a strong performance in the playoffs. If the issue has indeed been corrected, look for the 30-year-old to have a strong run as the Indians’ closer.
1:05
Dan Szymborski: A lot of times, people are too easy to attribute y change to x event that happened before y change.
1:05
Comment From Rated Rookie
One–but not the only–thing I dislike strongly about the NFL is the non-guaranteed contract. I would hate for MLB to go that route as well. How likely do you think such a development is?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Not sure any specific changes — teams can offer non-guaranteed contracts all they want — but player protections are likely to erode significantly next few CBAs.
1:06
Comment From Guest
Is there any interest in bringing in a guy to cover amateur prospects pre-draft? I’d be interested in reading a handful of articles and maybe a chat or two.
1:06
Dan Szymborski: You need to ask a David.
1:07
Comment From Eastern NC
Historically, how good was Mike Mussina?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Around 25th-35th best pitcher all-time or so.
1:07
Comment From Eastern NC
If you had to pick 5 sure thing hall of famers from the current big leagues, who would they be?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Pujols, Cabrera, Jeter, Cano, Ichiro.
1:08
Comment From Vince
Why does ZiPS forsake Tommy Hunter’s 20 starts in 2012? My DMB self is pretty emotional about it.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has a player role model that I can override if usage demands.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS looked at the clear cut change in Hunter’s role and the significant improvement and gives high % to odds he stays in relief.
1:09
Comment From Fellow Orioles Fan
Thanks for the clarification. I didn’t think you’d do it with the goal of getting a job on a team but just thought it’d be to help your favorite team on your own time but now I see it’s harder to separate one’s professional life from personal life in your business. Thanks for enlightening me!
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s hard to maintain partiality in that manner.
1:09
Comment From Guest
Why is there such a large difference between Fernandez’ projection and Harvey’s projection? Is it because Fernandez’ 2012 MLEs are better than Harvey’s AAA MLE + MLB performance?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, even in low minors, Fernandez was crazier.
1:10
Comment From Sadwick
The amount of vitriol flying around the A-Rod suspension is ridiculous. I was hoping for a bit of sanity after the HOF nonsense. Then again I suppose such is the fate of the internet forum; read a random selection of posts below any given article, that cold metallic feeling you get is the gun you’re now pointing at your own head.
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Never bet on sanity.
1:10
Comment From Zach
Obviously, I haven’t listened to it yet. Shall we interpret this as reflecting your general view?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Yes. Between various media things and me ranting on twitter for a couple days, I’ve got nothing new on Le Batard/Deadspin
1:11
Dan Szymborski: A few more and I really have to go
1:11
Comment From RotoLando
Which black magic-related villain name do you prefer: Papa Szymbo or Baron Szymedi?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Papa Szymbo sounds too pimpy. I just don’t have the wardrobe for it.
1:11
Dan Szymborski: But speaking of Baron Samedi, I would give a year of my life to have Geoffrey Holder’s voice.
1:12
Comment From StevePete
Do you ever change ZIPS stats based on your intuition? ie you see a projection that doesn’t make much sense
1:12
Dan Szymborski: No.
1:12
Dan Szymborski: *Except* a very specific role change projection, which isn’t really changing a projection, but simply ZiPS putting in different context.
1:12
Dan Szymborski: For instance, last year’s DMB disk had both starter and reliever projections for Aroldis Chapman, with leagues choosing one.
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Now that I think of it, I should have explained that. I hope leagues didn’t assume it was carte blanche to use *2* Aroldi
1:13
Comment From Yeah, Richie again
2000-2020 will be remembered as the time that bozos were so hypermaniacal about proving they were hypersmarter than Murray Chass that they pretended ‘roids and greenies were the same thing. Exhibit #2964A: hysterically harrumphing abut an independent arbitrator’s opinion about which they’ve yet to read ‘Word 1′.
1:13
Comment From Zach
I see that COL ZiPS is out and are somewhat optimistic on Rutledge. Should I hang on to him in my ottoneu league?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: That’s optimistic? Seek counseling.
1:13
Comment From RotoLando
Wonkey Dong?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I posted a screenshot that someone posted from Final Jeopardy in which the final question was something like “blue hero that collects rings” and the lady said Dankey Kang.
1:14
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Finally here. Dan, how many babies would Derek Jeter have to drown to reach A-Rod pariah level?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Infinite.
1:15
Dan Szymborski: They would all have been the next Hitler and Jeter would get more awards.
1:15
Comment From Eli
It’s noon and my next class is at 4, should i go sleep in the car?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: I’d go home and sleep and not go to 4 o clock class at all.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: My classes had to all be 9 AM or later and all be consecutive or there’s no way I wouldn’t drop the outlier quickly.
1:16
Comment From tom steele
carson’s just the absolute worst, huh?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: He’s truly a flax-fleckered dunderwit.
1:16
Comment From Oscar Gamble
How does ZIPS project season 4 of Game of Thrones?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: 99.8% chance of deaths, 97% of additional topless scenes not in the books.
1:17
Comment From Chad
Minaya made the worst trade in history! Colon for Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Phillips. Dare you to come up with a worse one
1:17
Dan Szymborski: In his defense, it seemed like the odds were high that his team would cease to exist very soon.
1:19
Dan Szymborski: If the sun were about to go supernova (AND YES I KNOW IT IS BELOW THE CHANDRASEKHAR LIMIT), $50 for a pecan pie isn’t so bad.
1:19
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Predict A-Rods % in his first year of HOF voting
1:19
Dan Szymborski: 12
1:19
Comment From Billy Beanes Hair piece
Bowser would be Wowser.
1:19
Comment From Zach
I found the link, and see it’s you on the radio show. Sorry for the stupid questions… I look forward to listening.
1:20
Dan Szymborski: It’s just easier to post one than go through the whole argument again
1:20
Comment From Chris
How dumb are the Mariners for not making Larussa team prez?
1:20
Dan Szymborski: I thought it was funny the M’s required him to send a resume and cover letter.
1:20
Comment From Anon
Danky Kang.
1:20
Comment From Guest
Randy Johnson is a 1st ballot guy?
1:20
Dan Szymborski: Yeah
1:21
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Is Khris Davis worth a shot as a 5th outfielder in fantasy?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: I’ve seen worse fliers
1:21
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
On the wrestling Dayn Perry front, his fantasy ringname is Theopolis Pickaxe. What would yours be?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Bastion Booger Jr.
1:22
Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time to depart for another week.
1:23
Dan Szymborski: As usual, you can read my work on ESPN.com, see projections and stupid chats on FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter (and Steam! Let’s play games!)
1:23
Comment From Boston Phan
So if a friend of yours became an Orioles staffer and he asked you for your thoughts on a player acquisition you would refuse to give your opinion?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Except for the Orioles part, I have been in this situation before and refused.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Until such time I expressed a viewpoint publicly. Who’s going to believe that my ZiPS projection for X team is unbiased if I’m secretly giving advice to X team? Transparency.



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Dave is a co-founder of USSMariner.com and contributes to the Wall Street Journal.


One Response to “Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/13/14”

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  1. Fellow Orioles Fan says:

    Hi Dan…I know I’ve read on chats here that all major league teams employ very intelligent people. But when it comes to say the Orioles who are your favorite team and haven’t done anything this off season or were potentially making a big mistake when they were linked to Nelson Cruz, do you try to get someone’s ear in the organization to offer your opinion just in case they haven’t thought about what they’re doing wrong? Not sure if you’ve done so, thought about doing so or don’t b/c there is some ‘code’ that prevents business from conflicting with personal interests. Or are the two entirely separate? Just wondering b/c I would think that you’d have a better shot getting someone’s attention as a legitimate saber and ESPN guy than an “ordinary” fan… Thanks!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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