by Dave Cameron - January 2, 2013
Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat
I’ve got a MI keepers logjam. All getting paid $5. 12 team 5×5. Who do you like out of Rutledge , Lowrie, and Walker.
Keep Walker, Lowrie is very injury prone and Rutledge is certainly not as good as his 2012 debut.
Why is Rutledge not as good as his debut?
Rutledge had 670PA between AA/MLB he had 185 Hits 76 were for XBH and he stole 21 bases and was caught 4 times.
Considering that his previous career high in PA was 500 it is no surprise that he wore out in September when he had 140PA and played in 32G at SS and hit .197/.248/.288 with a .258BABIP and was visibly exhausted.
If you take September out of the equation you have a guy on a 25/25 pace with a .317BA who hits XBH at a rate of 41% whether you are in a 5×5 or OPS/XBH league Rutledge is worth keeping.
Also he is SS and 2B eligible and is a line drive hitter who is penciled in as the #2 hitter in front of Cargo and Tulo. I don’t know that Rutledge will hit .315 but I think a .300/18/90/18/70 year is totally doable.
Additionally Rutledge is likely to be the primary back up SS in the coming years and is unlikely to lose SS eligibility
“I think a .300/18/90/18/70 year is totally doable”
So you think Rutledge is a top 3 2B?
There’s some Rutledge discussion going in the Kipnis Rotographs article… but this upside is what makes Rutledge so tantalizing.
I don’t think there’s anything in his 2012 MLB numbers that absolutely screams regression based on his excellent minor league track record. And if you prorate his 2012 MLB numbers to 650 PA, these are his numbers: .274/18/83/16/83 — a little short on the .300 AVG, but I think Tomcat’s numbers are clearly doable, if not a fair expectation.
Rutledge is not that talented, he never was highly regarded. His lack of strike zone control will be exploited and his raw tools won’t make up the difference. I’ll be shocked if he is a star let alone an above average MLB 2B.
It depends I think if he hits well enough to hit behind Fowler but in front of Cargo and Tulo he will have a good chance at really good counting stats as he has good speed and squares the ball up well.
His BB% are bad but I think he gets them up to 7% range this year and his XBH ratio since changing his stance halfway through the season in Modesto is off the chart. His August .317/.333/.598 came with a .328BABIP so it isn’t like it was all luck driven.
To me his bat is very similar to Michael Young’s and considering he plays half his games at Coors I see him having big fantasy upside.
BTW the Rockies had 4 .390+ wOBA hitters on their 07 WS that never made a BA top 100 list in Hawpe, Atkins and Holliday so Rutledge never being a high profile guy doesn’t bother me at all.
I have an AL only farm club of Bundy, T Walker and W Myers (we are allowed to keep 4) I also have Hultzen whom I am considering trading or releasing in favor of the following: Bauer, Gausmann, Bogaerts or Zunnino. Would you keep Hutlzen or take one of the other guys and what order would you rate them?
Always prefer the elite prospect bat over the elite prospect SP. The attrition rate with SP prospects is tremendous. I’d swap for Zunino or Bogaerts, its more of a coin flip between higher risk/reward.
I am in a 7 player keeper league with 2 catchers-I have Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Matt Wietere and Aramis Ramirez as my best hitters
Adam Wainwright, Chris Sale, Matt Latos, Yovani Gallardo and Dylan Bundy. I am thinking of keeping A Gon, Pedroia and Wieters and 4 pitchers..which 4 pitchers?
If you keep 4 SP you will be at a huge disadvantage offensively in a shallow keeper league. I would shoot for 5 bats, 2 SP. I would try and trade some of your guys for a better bat or two. AGonz and Pedroia might be your best chips to deal since they have big names but declining production. Also, Bundy would make a nice chip to move since the hype is so high.
Does anyone else have a problem reading these chats on their IPhones? I used to be able to, when they opened in a new window now I see the first three posts, but can’t scroll anywhere.
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