Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/16/13

12:01
Dan Szymborski: And boom goes the dynamite.
12:02
Dan Szymborski: DISCLAIMER FOR GRUMPY PEOPLE: DAN’S CHAT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH SENSE AT TIMES, MAY GO OFF-TOPIC, AND MAY BE COMPLETELY ARBITRARY AND DAN IS THE BENEVOLENT TYRANT. CONSUME AT YOUR OWN RISK.
12:02
Comment From GSon
dynamite is overrated..
12:02
Comment From Jake
Thought on Ellis to the Cardinals (given we don’t know the $ but that it’s a 1-year deal)? Seems very Cardinal-esque
12:03
Dan Szymborski: He’ll be useful as a backup plan to Wong – he’s better than either Descalso or Kozma. I don’t hate the Infante signing, but Ellis would have been a good fit there that would’ve left more dough for a pitcher
12:03
Comment From RotoLando
And now, broadcasting LIVE from the ZIPS Command Center, deep in the heart of the Severnaya Bunker, it’s the Sultan of Shorts, the Raja of Oddjob, The Big BABIP Himself, Daaaaaaaaaaaaan Szymborski!!!!

12:03
Dan Szymborski: See, that’s the kind of welcome I deserve. Much better than Worst Chat Ever.
12:03
Comment From GSon
Do you like the Ax Man coming to Cleveland?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but they still need a starting pitcher, though.
12:04
Comment From Chicago Joe
Dan! Can you please include MLBAM ids in ZiPS?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have all of them!
12:04
Comment From Bret
If the Phillies call you and ask if you’re interested in Jimmy Rollins, you hang up, right?
12:05
Dan Szymborski: Probably. I get the distinct impression that the Phillies don’t quite grasp that existing contracts really limite your return.
12:05
Comment From Guest
According to Dan Szymborski, which team has made the most important under the radar signing of the offseason thus far?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Maybe Josh Johnson? Really good terms. Dioner Navarro ain’t half-bad. I liked the Hudson signing.
12:06
Comment From Karl
Who was the most recent “can’t miss” prospect you missed on? Like an Andy Marte….
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Hmm. I didn’t predict much from Andy Marte though.
12:07
Dan Szymborski: I have to think about this one – I’m not usually one that gives guys labels like can’t-miss. One thing I know from doing projections for so long is that ain’t *nothing* is for sure. Kershaw’s one torn rotator cuff from not being a can’t-miss ace.
12:08
Dan Szymborski: Maybe Jesus Montero? THough I was fairly cautious, he’s been worse than I thought
12:10
Dan Szymborski: Sam goes for Andy LaRoche – way worse than I thought, but I tend to save the ridiculous praise for the top 5 types.
12:10
Comment From Froglegs Jackson
Would you say the Astros are still the odds on favorite to be the worst team in baseball?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: Probably. They’re not there yet.
12:10
Comment From RotoLando
Monday Weirdness GO!
12:10
Comment From Guest
Surprising stat that was tweeted by BBREF Play index: Jayson Werth batted just .211/.318/.352 in his first 92 games with the @Nationals but is .300/.384/.485 in his 268 games since.
12:10
Comment From Nash
Early thoughts on Adam Jones next season?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: Same old same old. I think he is what he is.
12:11
Comment From Steve
What the hell are the Yankees going to do about 2b and 3b??
12:11
Dan Szymborski: Not much, I don’t think. The FA market is shallow, like *all* their top prospects took big steps back, and they don’t know about A-Rod.
12:12
Comment From Josh
First impressions on this Floyd deal for the Braves?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: B/B-. Decent signing, but would have been better if the Braves got an option year.
12:12
Comment From GSon
MLB Network just mentioned the idea that was floated ina Dany Szymborski Chat on Fangraphs. Drew Stubbs to the Mariners for a pitching prospect.. Hallelujah !!
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Dany? Don’t tune into the episode in which I stand naked encircled by dragons.
12:12
Comment From zack
Your take on the Morse signing?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Meh-minus.
12:13
Comment From Zach
Should the O’s have been in on Infante? Probably not at his ultimate price, but I never even heard them linked to him. So GD’ed frustrating!
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Could’ve at least been in on Ellis. The O’s never should have let Corey Hart get to Seattle that cheaply – unlike Seattle, Baltimore was an awesome fit too.
12:14
Comment From Ryan
Do the Reds know it’s the off-season? I can’t imagine that their clever strategy of “Do nothing except let Shin Soo Choo leave” will help them actually improve. . . .
12:14
Dan Szymborski: They know, they just don’t care. I get the impression that they’re grumpy about what the offers for Brandon Phillips are and are now pouting in the corner.
12:14
Comment From GSon
Rakuten says.. we’re gonna think about posting Masahiro Tanaka.. Does this make the Cubs/Yankees/Mariners/Dodgers collective front offices :-( ?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: I think they’re just want-and-see – Rakuten’s been all over the place.
12:15
Comment From Doug
Hi Dan, would you happen to know what on earth the Blue Jays are doing/not doing this offseason?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ve tried to do some thing but they’ve fallen through. Same results, but better credit than the O’s/Reds
12:16
Comment From Dan
If your the Reds GM, how aggressive are you in trying to move Phillips?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Not very much so. They can’t really replace him in-house and his contract is enough to keep them from getting a significant return.
12:16
Comment From Chicago Joe
Dan! Can you include FanGraphs ids in ZiPS? Retrosheet? Or some freely available id?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Problem is that I don’t have the IDs for everyone, both major and minor, etc.
12:17
Comment From Rube Amaro
Wins mean we won the game. I don’t know how much clearer I can make that for you.
12:17
Comment From DLowe
Dan, now that Seattle has loaded up on 1B/DH types, where do you think Kendrys Morales ends up, and does he get a full-time gig?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: I think Morales is very likely to be this year’s Lohse.
12:18
Comment From BobbyS
There’s that GSon again, impostor!! Anyway, am I allowed to ask you about Mat Gamel Braves ZiPS again, yet?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Haven’t run it yet.
12:18
Comment From Smarmy Rick
What are the odds Amaro expresses interest in Rollins, not realizing that he’s the one who made him available in the first place?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: heh
12:18
Comment From zack
If it was same years, same money, rank you preferences for the following pitchers: E. Santana, Garza, Ublado?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Tie between Ubaldo/Garza (need upside Ubaldo, need certainty Garza). Then Santana.
12:18
Comment From RotoWorld
Gavin Floyd to The Braves. Does he make that rotation?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: He could, but it depends on everyone’s health.
12:19
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a Plan B guy.
12:19
Comment From BobbyS
Montero for Pineda ended up a pretty fair deal, though!
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Billy Preston had a popular song about this trade.
12:19
Comment From Walter
In your opinion, will the Pirates be a victim of Bill James’ ‘Plexiglass Effect’ and fall backwards after a major boom season?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so. They didn’t have to burn their reinforcements that are still on the way. Minor step back *maybe* because I don’t think they were *quite* this good, but I think they probably enter the season as the 2nd-place favorite.
12:21
Comment From zack
How awesome is the revamped twins rotation?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: I’m kind of amused that Pelfrey got a 50% raise for a 78 ERA+.
12:21
Comment From Sadwick
Tommy Hanson surprised me with how quickly he fell apart, especially since he was never hurt.
12:22
Dan Szymborski: He had a few starts in which he showed some surprising velocity, but generally did not. That 3-4 MPH he’s still missing has really hurt him
12:22
Comment From JimEd
Where have all the third basemen gone? Do you think the Red Sox avoid Drew because they want Bogaerts at SS and want to rebuild/develop Middlerooks?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: I thinkt hey’re still interested in Drew, but it always comes down to price.
12:23
Comment From Guest
Is it weird that I find it hilarious any time Dan Szymborski chats are by Dave Cameron?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: The entry announcing the chat is by David Cameron. The chat is by me.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Kind of like how Moneyball wasn’t written by Billy Beane!
12:24
Comment From Guest
Do you know why the depth charts on Fangraphs have 8 NL teams getting 300 PA at DH?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: I don’t handle that. My FG affiliation (outside of personal long-term association) is ZiPS and chats.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I’m not apprised of details like this. Which makes sense – my primary employer is ESPN!
12:25
Comment From Optimus Crime
Do you trade for Ike Davis or Lucas Duda? Why are the Mets even trying to trade Davis away at such a lowly perceived value?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I’d be happy to trade for either. You might be desperate too if you watched Duda play defense in the outfield!
12:25
Comment From Banzai
Danny Salazar a legit TOR arm? And do you see Cleveland setting any innings limits on him this year given how aggressive they were last season in pushing him ~60 innings past his post-TJ ’12 workload?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s going to be an ace or anything right now, but a solid 2/3 guy.
12:26
Comment From amory
do you think Matt Adams starts the year as the Cardinals first baseman with Craig in the outfield?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: I believe that is the case.
12:26
Comment From dbet
Have you been known to play any console games?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I have a PS3. The only major consoles I’ve missed are the XBoxes (not enough exclusives for me to justify that *and* a PS2/PS3) and Dreamcast.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: So long as the PC version isn’t terrible, I will almost always prioritize buying the PC version.
12:27
Comment From Derek Jeter
I’ll play 2nd base… it’ll make me slightly less worse than I am at SS!
12:27
Comment From Optimus Crime
David Wright is thought to have had a shot at being a $200MM ball player, do you agree and if so why do you think he signed under said value?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: I think that would have been too much for him.
12:28
Comment From Guest
Dan, one thing I’ve noticed since DMB has started using ZiPS is that defense is disproportionately valuable. Has any thought gone in to nerfing defensive values at least as far as the sim goes to make the game more accurate to real life?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re making any big changes sim-wise. I’d like if they went 1-10 on range so that there was more granularity.
12:29
Comment From Guest
Why does the caption say “Dan Szymborski Fangraphs Chat BY DAVE CAMERON”??????
12:29
Dan Szymborski: He was the author of the post announcing my chat.
12:29
Comment From Guest
do we have any idea what the Orioles are doing yet?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Yes. Little to nothing.
12:29
Comment From Gordon
Why DO the high-ranked prospects fail? Are there usually fatal flaws that the Majors exposes? Is it mental? Bad luck? Poor development? All of the above?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Injuries and sometimes they’re ranked too-highly based on their performance or too soon based on their level.
12:29
Comment From J.B.
Billy Hamilton will swipe __ bags this year.
12:30
Dan Szymborski: 2. At various times, he will steal second base or third base. Home plate isn’t a bag, really.
12:32
Dan Szymborski: 60 maybe?
12:32
Comment From Blandy Boreton
What does ZIPS think of Daniel Bryan going forward?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: I use my magic 8 ball to project Bryan. It says “All Signs Point to Yes”
12:32
Comment From Dan
What letter grade would you give to Sandy Alderson’s offseason?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: C
12:32
Comment From Dan
Which CF is going to make the biggest impact to their new team: Eaton, Bourjos, Fowler, or Aoki?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: I expect Aoki to be decent in RF but I think Bourjos is the best fit
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Eaton’s not ideally suited to his new park – he can’t take advantage of the park’s HR factor to the degree other players do
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Fowler will be solidly average.
12:33
Comment From Guest
STEAMER projects Bryce Harper to post a .274/.356/.480, 132 wRC+ line next year (which is actually worse than his 2013, he was .274/.368/.486 with a 137 wRC+ in 2013). Oliver projects .288/.368/.526, 147 wRC+. Which do you think is closer?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: Assuming this is a ZiPS question (and I tend to agree with it here), ZiPS has Harper at 279/363/523, which is closer to Oliver
12:34
Comment From Optimus Crime
Is Brian Matusz a guy the Orioles believe in enough to not trade him? Could the Mets who are a club on the hunt for young, ready made rotation candidates land him and for who?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Matusz will be 27 in a couple of months and has no history of rotation success in the majors. The O’s will keep him if the move back experiment works out in spring, but if not, he’ll be in the O’s bullpen.
12:35
Comment From John Stamos
Hi Dan, how would you rate your on-topic abilities for the current duration of the chat, on a scale from 1 to FOCUSED?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: 2
12:35
Comment From Dan
After signing Gavin Floyd, do you see any chance the Braves make a move for Price or Samarzjia?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: No
12:35
Comment From BobbyS
Over/Under on Mark Mulder’s MLB innings in 2014: 50 IP
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Under, which is too bad really
12:35
Comment From Seymour
think the Rox are content with DJLM or Rutledge at 2B?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: I have NFI about what the Rockies are going to do at any time.
12:36
Comment From David
To sum up, everyone is bummed that ______ seems inexplicably inactive so far this off-season. Do you agree that this is a thing now? And if so, is there some financial event upcoming that MLB owners may collectively be bracing for?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: I think a few teams dont’ quite realize the finances of 2013-2014 baseball
12:36
Comment From Guest
Does Morales sign before the draft?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:36
Comment From Seymour
follow up to Rox 2B q: Dan Murphy possible good fit there for very RHed lineup…
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Not crazy about his D
12:36
Comment From Daryl
Dan. With Oakland being so far off can you let me know howZiPs sees Gray performing? ERA+ would be awesome. Thanks.
12:37
Dan Szymborski: Yes, I can.
12:37
Dan Szymborski: OK, just for that, I guess I hae to get Gray projection
12:38
Dan Szymborski: 109
12:38
Comment From Gordon
Could it be that teams have a “Winter Meetings” Plan which, if unsuccessful, will be followed by a “Spring Training” Plan? Inactive teams with gaping holes MUST have plans, right? Right?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: How many rich stars have you seen go flat-ass broke after their peak stardom? All of them MUST have had plans too.
12:39
Comment From Zach
Thoughts on Castellanos for 2014?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: He should be OK, though I think he’s a little overrated.
12:39
Comment From Chad
Do you think Henry Urritia starts in left for the O’s this year? How do you think he will do?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: I’m starting to believe it’ll be the case. I think there are a lot of questions. He had crazy BA for AA, but he also was a 26-year-old playing in AA.
12:40
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Is James Loney relly worth giving 3 years?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Not really. Not my favorite move given team’s salary constraints
12:41
Comment From Seymour
M’s better off trying to get CLee than Price. there’s an extra yr on Lee contract.
12:41
Comment From RotoWorld
Billy Preston reference! Best afro in the business
12:41
Comment From Electric
So if the Yanks don’t land Tanaka, is the better play to go after upside(Ubaldo) or certainty (Garza)?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: I’d probably go with Garza.
12:42
Comment From Zach
Any thoughts on the optimistic ZiPS projections for Josmil Pino? Steamer and Oliver both like him to be above average as well.
12:42
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s unreasonable
12:42
Comment From Fish
Does ZiPS take into account pitch-type data? I’m looking at Ivan Nova abandoning his slider last season and getting much, much better results.
12:42
Dan Szymborski: It increasingly does, but not that *that* degree. Remember, we have very limited information about the actual predictive value of these things still
12:42
Comment From J
Does Scott Feldman live up to his contract with the Astros? Over/under era of 4.00?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Not really a fan.
12:43
Comment From Matt
If MLB was to do one final Expansion to 32 teams, 16 AL 16 NL, which two cities would you think would make the best candidates? My thought is San Antonio…
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Assuming no restraints, I’d probably put teams in Brooklyn and San Antonio, but on second one, would want to explore Memphis, or Charlotte as well.
12:45
Comment From Jason
Dan, is there any statistic that analyzes stolen bases as an effective “add on” to slugging? I’m thinking of something like a guy hits a single, then steals second, making the single effectively a double. There would have to be exclusions (for instances with runners on base, for example), but do you know of anything? Thanks!
12:45
Dan Szymborski: The problem is that it doesn’t quite work – stolen bases aren’t like slugging becuase you can’t advance runners.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Once you’re adjusting for SB/CS value, you might as well do it the typical, linear way
12:46
Dan Szymborski: I may want a pastrami sandwich and a donut, but I don’t thin kthere’s anything pressing need to have them both together.
12:46
Comment From Billy Preston
I’ve got a song it ain’t got no melody, how’m I gonna sing it to my friends?
12:46
Comment From mlstarr
Does ZiPS have a 5 year projection or anything beyond 1 year?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I keep those too myself.
12:47
Comment From Inquistor
Do you think Dave Cameron thinks too highly of himself and his ideas?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Every writer that has ever existed thinks too highly of himself and his ideas, including myself.
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Writing is a profession driven by ego and the ones that make great pains to say it’s not about ego are actually getting an ego boost by trying to make it not about ego.
12:48
Dan Szymborski: When you write something, you’re essentially telling someone SIT DOWN SHUT UP THIS IS MY OPINION
12:48
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Don’t be modest Dan. You also appear occasionally as a guest on Fangraphs Audio.
12:48
Dan Szymborski: I’ve only been on twice!
12:48
Comment From RotoWorld
Does Cameron annonuce you when you enter a room?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: I don’t want to be announced. Makes sneak chair attacks more difficult.
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Because, let’s be honest, I’m *way* more a hell than a face.
12:48
Comment From Wongs Agent
Ellis…over or under 400 at-bats for the Cards this season?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Under.
12:49
Comment From Bret
Should the Jays have signed Robinson Cano to the deal the Mariners gave him?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: It’s not really a bad valuation. I wouldn’t have minded this at all – he’s the kind of doubling down the Jays needed to push forward
12:49
Comment From Alex
Logan and Hawkins got signed for affordable deals and Benoit reportedly wants a relatively affordable 2/14. Veras could have been had for a 4 million option. What the heck are the Tigers thinking signing Joba for 2.5+ when they could have easily used that pizza money to build a very decent bullpen without much long term commitment?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: The Tigers have done a crappy job this offseason with the pen
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Nathan/Krol 2014 is a likely decline from Benoit/Smyly 2013 (and they would have had to do something anyway becuase so would Benoit/Smyly 2014)
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Instead, the Tigers have been in a hold pattern on a bullpen flying on fumes.
12:50
Comment From J.B.
Do we see Buxton & Sano this year in a Twins uni?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: At least briefly.
12:51
Comment From Szymborskis Agent
Loved the use of the word “granularity”…that’s going to get you more on the FA market. Keep up the good work.
12:51
Comment From GSon
The REAL GSon here… Will the next few weeks see the Indians & Yankees put their classic three way deal together netting the Yankees Nick Franklin, the Mariners Drew Stubbs and the Indians Manny Banuelos?
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Wow, what a terrible trade for the Mariners.
12:51
Comment From Brian
Which team has had the best offseason so far?
12:51
Dan Szymborski: St. Louis
12:51
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Dan, please wish Billy Ripken a happy birthday.
12:52
Dan Szymborski: I will do such thing, given his personal attacks on Roy Face.
12:52
Comment From BobbyS
I know you like beers.. but what about Ciders? Angry Orchard, Woodchuck, etc? Just tried the Pumpkin Woodchuck, do recommend!
12:52
Dan Szymborski: I enjoy hard ciders. I feel less guilty drinking them at 10 AM on a Wednesday morning.
12:52
Comment From GSon
Daniel Bard walks ____ more batters than he strikes out?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: a buttload?
12:52
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Buccos 1B now? Let Lambo play? Mets duo? Smoak?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: I suspect they’ll see what Lambo can do and then try to jury-rig a solution if that doesn’t work.
12:53
Comment From Optimus Crime
You give Sandy Alderson a “C” for his work this off season, what do you think would’ve given him an “A”?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Not sure he could’ve gotten an A working under so many constraints.
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Would’ve liked to at least seen Mets in some of these rehab guys
12:54
Comment From kevinthecomic
Can you invent a sliderule-type contraption that would automatically convert summed player WARs into team WAR? That would be really helpful. Thanks.
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Nope!
12:54
Comment From Seymour
wait, are you saying that Gavin Floyd is rotation equivalent to David Price? that’s startling.
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Wait, when did I say that?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Braves were in on Price regardless.
12:54
Comment From Blandy Boreton
Not a fan of the Granderson deal?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Kind of meh on it.
12:55
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
You ever play any XCOM games? I just got into Enemy Unknown and it’s incredible
12:55
Dan Szymborski: It’s not a setting that really interests me.
12:55
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Dan Szymborski: Less grumpy than Cameron, more opinionated than Sullivan
12:55
Comment From neastws
What assumptions does ZiPS make about the distribution of RHP and LHP a hitter will face? Can you split projections and adjust for platoon playing time?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: It assumes that overall usage in recent years will continue. I do publish platoon split projections at the end of the offseason
12:56
Dan Szymborski: If I made assumptions about future platoon split usage, then nobody would instantly know what that assumption would be.
12:57
Dan Szymborski: I try to keep as much subjective information out of ZiPS as I can because even if it made ZiPS *more* accurate, it makes it *less* useful to the reader, who now has to decipher all my predictions about future usage, positional split, etc.
12:58
Comment From here goes nothing
If he gave up football today, Russell Wilson could be a ______ second baseman.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: minor league
12:58
Comment From Guessed
Who is the backup SS for the Cardinals on opening day?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: I think it’ll be Descalso. He can fill-in, though Kozma probably gets the majority of the playing time in call-up if Peralta is injured
12:58
Comment From Big in Japan
If you’re the Cards GM, do you just hibernate at this point? Is there any feasible way to improve this team?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ve done what they need to.
12:58
Comment From BassmanUW
With the news that Ryan Freel was suffering from Stage 2 CTE at the time of his suicide, should baseball be attempting to look at player safety for being hit in the head? One the one hand, it’s so much more rare for anyone to take a blow to the head playing baseball, and baseball has, at least recently, seemed to do a good job of keeping players showing concussion symptoms out until they have resolved. On the other, I’d presume one 95 mph fastball or comebacker to the head could do a fair amount of damage on its own. I’m not sure what baseball could really do regarding on field play, but curious if its worth putting the money towards studying.
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Concussions are very serious. MLB’s done some things, like 7-day concussion list and putting a kibosh on home plate collisions
1:00
Dan Szymborski: but the latter policy needs to be stronger and given the seriousness of concussions, I’d probably mandate an automatic stay on 15-day DL.
1:01
Comment From RotoWorld
Too bad RAJ only has two more years on his contract, I was thinking of legally changing my son’s name to Ediie Winsmore and cashing in.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: A few more than I have to go
1:02
Comment From Seymour
this chat is so slowwwwww
1:02
Dan Szymborski: You have absconded ith most of the w’s, so hen I type ords that require usage of the letter, I find myself up against the all.
1:03
Comment From kevinthecomic
If MLB expands again, I think Kansas City should be given consideration.
1:03
Comment From The Oberamtmann
Benevolent Tyrant in the sense of the ancient Greek tyrants? Or in the sense of, we’d better accept that you’re benevolent or else we end up in your dungeon?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: I like to think that I could keep my base default cruelty under control.
1:03
Comment From Guest
Donuts as sandwich buns are becoming increasingly popular.
1:03
Dan Szymborski: I think it is one of the orst trends in the orld of food.
1:04
Comment From BobbyS
We’ve talked about how clumsy you are… i’m having doubts about your sneak attacks!
1:05
Dan Szymborski: I may be accident-prone, but I’m idely-renoned for my skills of ninja arts
1:05
Comment From Guest
Thoughts on Jack Z speaking at sabrcon?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Actions speak louder than ords.
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Anybody can *say* ho very much they appreciate modern sabermetrics. The proof of the pudding is in the eating.
1:06
Comment From Doug
My vote for “worst offseason” probably goes to the Tigers. Thoughts?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t mind the Kinsler-Fielder swap at all.
1:06
Comment From Malone
Doesn’t the fact that Garza has been so consistently average make it all the more difficult to overpay him?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Consistently average isn’t a bad skill to have. That’s hy we us AR and not AA generally speaking.
1:06
Comment From Jackson
Will Manny Machado get a SS projection this season? Do you think the O’s will still consider moving him after his knee injury?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Yes. I’m pessimistic on the latter.
1:07
Comment From Seymour
how are the Cards the best off-season so far? for way out-bidding everyone on Peralta? dealing Freese for Bourjos? I’m unimpressed. Rizzo’s deal for Fister blows everyone out of the water. there isn’t even a 2nd after that.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: I’d put ashington at number 2. The Peralta contract is extremely reasonable and landing Bourjos *and* Grichuk for frigging David Freese is an excellent move.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: As I’ve said before, Freese’s 3B defense this year as orse than Maxime eygand’s.
1:08
Comment From GSon
this: “Dan Szymborski: Wow, what a terrible trade for the Mariners” Stubbs can play. Franklin will be relegated to a backup utility and Banuelos has health issues but lots of upside. Oh & this is the only way a good trade seems to happen for the Mariners.. otherwise, they end up with the next Jesus Montero.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Stubbs’s defense has decline faster than soft tissue body parts after the age of 40.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I’d trade for Franklin Stubbs before Dre Stubbs.
1:10
Comment From Guest
How effective do you expect a platoon of Wong/Ellis to be? (assuming the Cardinals do that)
1:10
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re going to do that. I suspect Ellis is there as Plan B for ong, not as Plan A.5
1:10
Comment From chuckb
Just saw a headline at MLBTR that said the Phillies were “very willing” to trade Rollins. Duh! That’s really code for “we can’t give him away right now.” I wonder if they’re also “very willing” to trade Howard!
1:10
Dan Szymborski: I’m very illing to date Kate Upton!
1:11
Comment From dbet
Do you have any opinions on Bitcoin? It’s too hard to buy into a currency that has an unknown developer right?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: I’ve actually made a bit of money playing off the speculation, but as an actual currently, I’m extremely unimpressed.
1:11
Comment From Guest
Are you gonna pick up the Steam console?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I’m the target market. I’m a guy with an excellent right and a 30 inch monitor on his desk.
1:12
Comment From Steve
You seem too amusing to be an ESPN guy… ive always assumed everyone over there would be rather boring
1:13
Dan Szymborski: I ould have to disagree there, though I’m certainly on the acky side.
1:13
Comment From Pig.Pen
The Phillies are very interested in moving Jimmy Rollins, would you want him?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Not for hat the Philles ill undoubtedly ant in return.
1:13
Comment From oREO Speedwagon
cookie monster says: NOMZ NOMZ NOMZMOMZOM
1:13
Dan Szymborski: He’s referring to my dream log entry from a fe days ago.
1:14
Dan Szymborski: “Me and Cookie Monster started a band called Oreo Speedwagon that covered New Wave songs but replaced the lyrics with new ones about cookies. We were playing at Dave’s bar mitzah (?) and he was mad becuase we told him that we were better than we actually were. We had to play in the parking lot and I had one of those cool double guitars except half the double guitar was a bass guitar though I could not play because I don’t know how to play guitar. Found a great microwave in the parking lot too.
1:14
Comment From GSon
Since you hate fat guys (e.g Dan Szymborski: I didn’t mind the Kinsler-Fielder swap at all), will you be up for some snow ball throwing at Santa Clause in the next weekor two?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I hate fat guys? I’m a fat guy and I’m certainly not self-hating.
1:14
Comment From GSon
soft tissue body parts?…why do I get the impression you’re referring to an epididymis?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: You guys kno hat I’m referring to.
1:15
Comment From BobbyS
Stubbs swings and misses more than than a drunk child at a pinata party… without any redeeming qualities.
1:15
Comment From Matt
Your “W” has died
1:15
Comment From Steve
Have you sworn off w’s?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: From earlier:
1:02
Comment From Seymour
this chat is so slowwwwww
1:02
Dan Szymborski: You have absconded ith most of the w’s, so hen I type ords that require usage of the letter, I find myself up against the all.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Blame Seymour for using them all.
1:17
Dan Szymborski: And on that note, it’s time for me to sign off for another eek. I hope to see you all next time, in to eeks! As usual, you can find my ork at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, DSzymborski on Titter (and Steam) and herever beer is cheap, plentiful, and overfloing ith deliciousnessosity.
1:17
Comment From Pat
If you’re going to not use the letter W, at least do it right. You’ve slipped up like 5 times already
1:17
Dan Szymborski: I had a fe left and I as trying to ration them out.
1:17
Comment From GSon
Of the MLB Insiders (the Olney’s/Morosi’s/Heyman’s) etc, who would you say you trust more?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: Not sure, they all have good sources. I tend to have the most faith in Olney and Robothal.


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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


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Bill Layman
Guest
Bill Layman
2 years 7 months ago

Hi Dave,
So what do you think of the Cardinals’s free agent signing of Mark Ellis; and who do you forcast the team starting the season out as their ‘regular’ second basemen? Provided the teams young pitching continues its excellent play, don’t the cardinals start out the year as the most complete team in Major League Baseball?

Baltar
Guest
Baltar
2 years 7 months ago

I love that you not only put your question in the wrong place but also think you’re chatting with Dave rather than Dan.

Nick V
Guest
Nick V
2 years 7 months ago

Castellanos at 3B for the Tigers… So many different reports on his defense being an upgrade over Miggy and his offense supposedly very good for contact and decent for power with the potential for 30+ HR. What do you think he brings the Tigers this year and in 3 years?

cbragg84
Member
cbragg84
2 years 7 months ago

Great bounce back chat!

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