Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/30/13

11:56
Dan Szymborski: You know what I hate? When sportswriters are seen as the bottom of the writing pyramid, slack-jawed mouth-breathers too stupid to do anything else with their lives.
11:56
Dan Szymborski: You know what I hate more? When the BBWAA voting members do their very best to prove them right.
11:57
Dan Szymborski: Welcome to today’s edition of the Very Angry Zim chat.
11:58
Comment From Dan
Do you have Zips by you ATM? Curious what Zorilla’s defense looks like at other positions in +/- terms
11:58
Dan Szymborski: I don’t, windows is updating there.
11:58
Comment From Mike
Every year ZiPS predicts Ben Rever will hit a HR and I laugh. Can you go into the process that leads to such a crazy projection? If he’s “rounding up to 1” is he slowly dropping from 0.8 HR to 0.6 HR or something?

11:58
Dan Szymborski: I don’t keep the decimal places, so I’m not really sure.
11:58
Comment From Dan
Also, to get more clicks for your upcoming articles, what zips can we expect the rest of this week?
11:59
Dan Szymborski: Detroit Friday.
11:59
Comment From Badger
Does Alex Rios (+ ___) for Homer Bailey (+ ___) make sense for both teams? CIN needs OF help and TEX has injury risks in the rotation.
11:59
Dan Szymborski: As always, depends on how the + is.
11:59
Comment From Justin
ZiPS seems very bullish on Alex Guerrero. What elements suggest that level of production?
12:00
Dan Szymborski: Cuban stats take a very severe translation, but he still comes out looking decently. Sadly, we don’t have a bigger sample.
12:00
Comment From Ryan
How would you fix the Reds outfield for next year?
12:00
Dan Szymborski: At this point, I’m not sure they can really do anything.
12:01
Dan Szymborski: Most likely they’d need a trade, probably get an outfielder for Homer Bailey (as noted above)
12:01
Comment From Aidan
Steamer and Oliver have vastly different projections for Billy Hamilton. Which one do you lean towards?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: The difference seems to mostly be defense, so it’ shar dto say. ZiPS is somewhere int he middle there.
12:02
Comment From John J
Matt Moore of T-Bay. Fair to compare his command issues to Burnett and Beckett in early years ? Or does the much discussed velocity loss put him in a different bucket ?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: I’m not *too* alarmed by the velocity loss yet, we’ll see in 2014 what his velocity is. His command issues are concerning and put a limit on his ceiling.
12:03
Comment From SkitchP
Can this just be a “quote lou whitaker’s stats” session. Cause I love me some Lou.
12:03
Comment From John J
Bottom line–is he a buy or sell ?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: I can’t answer a question that rigid! It always depends on the circumstances.
12:04
Comment From JC
Matt Holliday hits the living crap out of baseballs. As a result, his babip is higher than the average baseball player. Please pass this along to ZIPS so it can stop being wrong all the time.
12:05
Comment From Ryan
What does ZiPS think of Dan Shaughnessy’s HOF ballot?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has no judgment. I’ve certainly had a lot to say.
12:06
Comment From Tom
Think there’s a chance only Maddux is inducted this year?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: I think Glavine’s in too. As of right now, Repoz’s HoF Ballot Collecting Gizmo has 67 full ballots, Maddux 100%, Glavine 98.5%, Thomas 88.1%, Biggio 82.1%, Piazza 71.6%, Morris 65.7%.
12:07
Dan Szymborski: As a whole, the public ballots tend to be slightly less stupid, so I think it’s pointing to a Maddux, Glavine, Morris induction, with Thomas maybe 50/50 and Biggio maybe 30/70.
12:07
Comment From Me
There’s some guy on Fangraphs that seems on edge about HoF ballots. What should I do to push him over the edge into the maw of madness?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: Dunno, but given my history, it’s not a difficult push.
12:08
Comment From Andrew
It sounds crazy, but should the Astros go all-in for Tanaka? They have $ to spend, he’s young, and they could set up a Tanaka-Rodon-Appel top 3 by 2016.
12:08
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t. There will be future opportunities to do this kind of thing when the team’s closer. If we were talking *Darvish* that would be one thing, but I don’t think Tanaka will be near Darvish’s class.
12:08
Comment From Ryan
Is Tanaka’s work load at a young age at all concerning in terms of his future durability?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: That’s kind of difficult as usage is a little different in NPB than it is here.
12:09
Comment From juan pierres mustache
Can you make it so that Greg Schiano manages the Marlins this year? Thanks in advance, Dan.
12:09
Dan Szymborski: That’s kind of cruel, no?
12:10
Comment From juan pierres mustache
cruel to who, though?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: The Marlins fan?
12:11
Comment From RotoLando
Hey! From the racks and stacks, it’s the best on wax! How ’bout another double-golden-oldie-twin-spin-sound-sandwich from Z-I-P-S in Portland? Iiiiiiit’s…DAN!
12:12
Comment From SSMeatHammer
I have Ian Desmond locked up for $25 for 2014 if I want to keep him. With a dearth of SS with power/speed, I am considering keeping him, but I fear he may go for around $20 in the auction if I let him go, making me a huge verbal dartboard in my league.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say – I’m not sure what else is available in your league. It may be smart to overpay a little unless your team is really solid elsewhere.
12:13
Comment From Guest
Of the things that went right for the Blue Jays in 2013, which ones won’t recur in 2014?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Rasmus won’t be as good. Lind won’t be close to as good.
12:14
Comment From jda
Thanks for the chat, Dan! Quick diversion from HoF ballot craziness: are those wOBA calculations for the ZiPS articles park-adjusted?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: wOBA on FG is never park-adjusted, unless they’ve made a recent change.
12:16
Comment From Dont Be a Jurick, Son
How much of Cano’s $240M will he actually get after taxes, paying his agent, and any other reductions? With a salary that large, does it get taxed like when you win the lottery?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Enough that he should at least have enough to take his family out for a fancy dinner.
12:16
Comment From Teddy
top 5 players you think zips is the most optimistic and the most pessimistic on?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Too early.
12:16
Comment From RK
if Jack Morris gets in, would the better option be 1. someone starting a rival “REAL” HOF that will more accurately ascribe value or 2. try to remedy the current system moving forward and leaving the current current members? For the record, I say #1 even though they wouldn’t have the artifacts/be officially sanctioned
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Try to remedy. A rival real HOF would be a very expensive undertaking.
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Remedy the process so that great players get in. Let Morris be a punchline in the future.
12:17
Comment From Eminor3rd
So uh, how about that HoF voting?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: ZIM SMASH!!!!!!!!!!!11111oneoneone
12:18
Comment From SSMeatHammer
Desmond Jennings steals 27 bags this year?!?!?!?!
12:19
Dan Szymborski: FATALERROR #385A USER NOT ASKING QUESTION IN FORM OF A QUESTION CAUSED A KERNEL PROTECTION FAULT IN SZYMBORSKIBOT.dll.
12:19
Comment From Eminor3rd
I just want to say that I’m very pleased that the ballot gizmo is showing that Frank Thomas might get in, at least.
12:21
Comment From Nats Fan
When do the Nats zips come out?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: nats are one of the last teams to go.
12:23
Comment From Eminor3rd
Which TF2 weapon best represents the BBWAA on HOF matters? Short Circuit?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: Tomislav. It used to be a non-terrible idea, but it was nerfed and worthless now.
12:23
Comment From Tim Cooney
Why didn’t I get an projection.?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: Always some guysa re missed – Cooney’s likely to have one by final.
12:24
Comment From Guest
i always have questions to ask when a chat is not going on. and now i cannot think of them.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: That’s why St. Peter invented Twitter in 45 A.D.
12:24
Comment From Chad
Is 5 years too short of time span for Hall eligibility? Would maybe a few more years give a better perspective? I know it doesn’t change performance, but maybe gives these guys who vote on “feel” more time to…I don’t know…feel?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: If they can’t be bothered to think in 5 years, they probably can’t be bothered to think in 10 years.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I’d be in favor of *reducing* the time after reforming the voter base.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I see no benefit for making poor Mike Mussina have to wait even longer to hear the judgment of idiots.
12:25
Comment From RotoLando
Have you tried challenging the BBWAA to an arm-wrestling match yet? Winner gets to fill out the loser’s ballot.
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Do they all go against me at once or do I challenge them gauntlet/black ninja style?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: I believe I would do well – I can still do some chinups and I’m a big fat dude. I still have strong arms.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Though I don’t do a lot of arm-wrestling, so I’m not sure if there’s specific strategy, tactics involved.
12:27
Comment From juan pierres mustache
you guys need to ask zim calming questions. his shift key must be damn near worn out by now. dan, what are your thoughts on fish lazily swimming in a koi pond on a mild summer day?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Are you supposed to swim in a koi pond?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: I prefer rivers. Moving water is way cooler!
12:27
Dan Szymborski: and oceans. Waves are fun.
12:28
Comment From Andrelton Simmons Rig
Who have been the top 5 defensive projections you have seen so far? I assume Machado and Simmons are 1 and 2.
12:28
Dan Szymborski: *Of the teams I’ve done*, the top 5 so far (for their respective positions) are Simmons, Machado, Heyward, Victorino, Uribe.
12:28
Dan Szymborski: But keep in mind I have 503 offensive projections and that usually ends up between 1000 and 1100.
12:29
Comment From RotoLando
Words are transitory. Please communicate your feelings to us through the universal medium of MS-PAINT.
12:31
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12:31
Comment From Pedro
You probably have answered this before and they are a competitor of yours but what are your feelings on FRAA from BR as a defensive metric?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: I think it throws out the value of zone-based metrics.
12:32
Comment From Jake
Is Piazza HOF?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Ought to be, easily.
12:32
Comment From Tom
Think Kenny Lofton has a shot this year? One of the best all-around players of … oh, wait, nevermind.
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Heh, when I saw the start of the Q, I assumed I was going to have to give you some bad news.
12:33
Comment From RotoLando
You still have time to call out all the ballots in the form of GoldenEye weapons. A+ = Golden Gun. F = Klobb. Chass Murray = Oddjob blowing himself up on his own proximity mines
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Chass would not be Oddjob. Oddjob was hard to kill because of his height.
12:33
Dan Szymborski: We had a rule that you could not play as Oddjob or Moonraker Elite #2.
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Chass is more Jaws.
12:33
Comment From Jake
Best reform to HOF voter base?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: A second Committee that cleans up the mess of players not inducted.
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Close second – smallpox released at Morris Induction After Party.
12:35
Comment From Marcus A.
Can you give me any sort of argument that results in Jack Morris being more worthy of the HOF than Schilling? Even by old school things like “clutch performances” and “feeling like an ace” he qualifies. I just don’t get it.
12:35
Dan Szymborski: No.
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Well, I guess you could say “Morris is more worthy of the Hall of Fame because I’m a giant idiot” but I don’t think that’s quite what you have in mind.
12:35
Comment From Tom
Who would be on your HOF ballot, if you had one (assuming no limit)?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Clemens, Bonds, Maddux, Bagwell, Glavine, Mussina, Schilling, Thomas, Trammell, Walker, Edgar, Raines, Biggio, Palmeiro, Pizza, McGwire, Kent, Sosa. 50/50 on McGriff.
12:37
Dan Szymborski: Though I may have missed someone of f the top of my head – that should be 18 guys and McGriff.
12:37
Comment From Mike Rizzo
My team has 2 very good starting pitchers who are 2 years before their first free agency – Fister and Zimmermann. Can you think of some instances where a pitcher made it to the last two years before his first free agency, did not sign a deal that locked him up for those two years and his first few years of FA, and regretted it (e.g., got hurt or dropped off significantly in performance)?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: Off hand, no, but I’m sure they are out there. That’s the kind of sit-down-and-consider question
12:38
Comment From Eminor3rd
Would you rather have Jeff Francouer (age 29) as the Orioles RF in 2014, or Minnie Minoso (age 88)?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: Minoso. At 88, he’d likely be injured enough to keep him out of the lineup
12:38
Comment From StevePete
Why cant projection systems allow for the fact that Trout might actually have that high of a BABIP?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: They do. They reflect that he *might* have that high a BABIP.
12:39
Comment From Marcus A.
If every player in the majors retired this year, who would be deserving of your hall of fame vote?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: You mean just these guys, right?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Not Bonds/Clemens/Maddux?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: A-Rod, Pujols, Halladay (he is retiring this year technically!), Jeter, Pettitte, Beltran, Utley, Beltre, Cabrera, Suzuki, Rivera,
12:41
Comment From Mmmm, food.
What places and toppings make your Pizza HoF?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Cheese. Only indie pizza.
12:41
Comment From Guest
What is being learned here today?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: The depravity of postironic humanity.
12:42
Comment From juan pierres mustache
I played goldeneye the other night and would like to point out that anyone who makes you play remote mines on stack is actually worse than Murray Chass
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Back in college, we used to go through cases of beer, tons of pot, and hundreds of dollar in bets on Goldeneye Weekends.
12:42
Dan Szymborski: I once net $600 by winning an *8 hour* proximity mine in battle.
12:43
Comment From Oriole
Does Machado see some time at SS this year?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: No
12:43
Comment From Jake
Depth charts has the Yankees at 79-83. How are you going to explain their 85+ win season come october?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: How would I know? I don’t know what happened or if their projection is even 79 wins yet.
12:44
Comment From juan pierres mustache
we should just have a BBWAAWAA that votes on who gets to be on the BBWAA in the first place. Then we get to forever banish Chass from the internet after he fails to get 5% on the first ballot
12:44
Comment From Sam
Aren’t Morris and Stieb pretty much the same guy?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: No. Morris had better attendance. Stieb was much better at preventing the other team from scoring runs.
12:45
Comment From Alan
Pizza is definitely in my HOF, although it’s less inspiring since I gave up eating meat.
12:45
Comment From Marcus A.
What’s your take on Dave’s percentile approach to the hall of fame? While I appreciate the point he’s making and agree that too few are getting through, I don’t know that there should be a set percentage.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Not a set percentage, but it should be a guideline. If the percentages aren’t matching up previous percentages, something done broke.
12:45
Comment From Bkgeneral
Here is my problem with HOF. Pete Rose and Barry Bonds both have tons of stuff at the HOF, just they are not enshrined. If you want to leave them out, leave them out entirely.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: But problem is that you have a *lot* of stuff on non-HOFers.
12:46
Dan Szymborski: Like no-hit balls.
12:46
Comment From RotoLando
Do you accept the reverse steroid argument, as in, a player did well in the steroid era without any known PED usage? (McGriff)
12:46
Dan Szymborski: No. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
12:47
Dan Szymborski: No player since Dianabol was introduced in the late 1950s should be considered clean of steroids without testing and no player since WWII should be considered clean of amphetamines without testing.
12:47
Dan Szymborski: It’s an unknown, not that I particularly care given the somewhat arbitrary Reefer Madness-esque manner in which drugs are separated into “legitimate” and “illegitimate” categories.
12:47
Comment From bob
Why is the Frank Thomas vote even close?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: The education system has failed our youth for decades.
12:48
Comment From Tims Neighbor
Forget about Piazza, let’s talk about pizza! What kind of topping does the ol’ Zim prefer? I’m a pepperoni and banana peppers sort of fellow.
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Cheese.
12:48
Comment From Cummins and Goins
What happened to Mark Reynolds’ power? It seems weird that he’s not striking out or walking more but the power dried up in what should be his prime at 29.
12:48
Dan Szymborski: His swing’s actually cut down a little. That kind of thing never seems to work.
12:49
Dan Szymborski: For pitcher either. I remember when the Orioles tried to fix high K/high BB Cabrera by having him dial it back. Which resulted in a low K/high BB Cabrera
12:49
Comment From Eddie
No HoF for Johan Santana?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Borderline.
12:49
Dan Szymborski: On peak.
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I’m not quite sure his peak is *quite* good enough without a little more mass to his career.
12:50
Comment From Jake
What is the Piazza HOF argument?
12:51
Dan Szymborski: That he’s the best hitting catcher in baseball history and his defensive struggles have been greatly overrated.
12:51
Comment From Jim Russell
Are you a fan of the new posting system? Will this attempt for parity eventually give way to a salary cap?
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Not really. Less of an incentive for teams to let their talent come here.
12:52
Comment From Cochise
Could Nelson Cruz sign after the draft?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: No, he signs before then.
12:52
Comment From Sadwick
I had a group of people that refused to play Goldeneye with me if grenade launchers were in the game. I got pretty good at banking them around corners.
12:52
Comment From Nick O
Has anyone noticed that the Oliver defensive projections don’t make any sense? For example, Coco Crisp being +15 in CF?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Some have looked a little weird but given that ZiPS does technically compete with Oliver, I don’t think it’s may place to question Brian.
12:53
Comment From Dave
What is the baseball equivalent of getting hit by a blue shell in mario kart?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Kershaw. You know the curve’s coming, you know you’re going to try to swing at it no matter how insistent you are that you will not, you know you’re going to miss it.
12:54
Comment From Danny Cox
Who was better, Jack Morris or Joe Magrane?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Well, Morris. Morris would be deserving of a J.M. Hall of Fame induction. I guess along with Joe Mauer, Jim Maloney, Jeff Manto, John Mayberry, etc.
12:55
Comment From Stinky Pete
I found Dan Farnsworth’s article on J.D. Martinez interesting, but he wasn’t taken in the Rule 5 draft. Are you similarly optimistic on his future?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Haven’t read it yet. I’m not optimistic.
12:56
Comment From Brett
Apologies if this has been explained but how do you decide the order that ZIPS projections are released?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Last year’s order flipped, except a few teams that got “promoted” due to Twitter trivia.
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Every other year, the order is set by random number.
12:57
Comment From Marcus A.
Is there a comparable pitcher to Fred McGriff
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Depends what you mean. If you mean epitome of 50/50 candidate that you could go either way on, the pitching equivalent for me would be Tommy John.
12:57
Comment From Isaac
Why is batted ball data so dramatically different between sources – say, between FG and BR? For example, David Ortiz has a GB/FB ratio of 1.00 and 0.67, respectively and I get a different ratio from those using Retrosheets data.
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Sometimes it’s definitional.
12:58
Comment From StevePete
Where do I find your chats on ESPN?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: I’m an event chatter there – I chat on all the announcement events, playoffs, WS, etc.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: It hasn’t come up, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t have me on the HoF announcement one as there’s a good chance that I’ll go ballistic at the results.
1:00
Dan Szymborski: I’m not exactly a calming influence once I’ve been wound up about something.
1:00
Comment From zack
Will Mike Mussina get screwed out of the hall? Dude is massively underrated. Much better candidate than Glavine.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: What really gets me mad is the Morris no Mussina ballots.
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Morris isn’t just worthy of carrying Mussina’s jockstrap, he’s unworthy of holding a paper reporting a rumor of the location to a map that holds a book with the name of the country that has a PC that contains the possible location of a picture of Mussina’s jockstrap.
1:02
Comment From StevePete
How is Olney as a guy? I feel like I’d like him
1:02
Dan Szymborski: He’s actually one of the guys I don’t know very well.
1:04
Dan Szymborski: People like him though. There’s a very collegial atmosphere, at least among the writers, TV guys, etc. I’ve been working for ESPN for nearly 4 years now and there still hasn’t been a single instance in which I’ve felt unwelcome or any kind of friction.
1:04
Comment From Marcus A.
Do you think having better framing numbers would have hurt Piazza more? He seemed like a bad defensive catcher but other than base stealing numbers we had little way to quantify that.
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Piazza was a very hard worker behind the plate – I’m not so sure that his framing numbers *would* be bad.
1:05
Comment From Bkgeneral
You are an idiot. The hall has a lot of stuff from Rose and Bonds. You know like bats, balls, uniforms.
1:05
Dan Szymborski: wait, what?
1:05
Comment From Ray Charles
Dan I love your chats…..but my wife gets a little nervous walking by and seeing some game ad saying “play for free” game featuring make believe girls that would make Playboy nervous….any way to stop that? Please keep up the good work.
1:05
Dan Szymborski: I have no idea how the ads are determined and even if I did, I’m not a decision maker at FanGraphs.
1:06
Comment From Edgar in Issaquah
isn’t getting upset about Baseball HOM kind of like being upset about Rock and Roll HOF ? Paul Allen built EMP as an alternative to R & R. How does he feel about baseball ? It’s worth a shot.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: A Hall of Fame induction is the current highest honor a baseball player can earn. I love baseball and also get my salary from writing about baseball. I want that honor to mean as much as possible. When unworthy players get the award and worthy players don’t, it makes that honor less significant.
1:07
Comment From Eddie
Why on Earth would Rakuten agree not to accept payola from Tanaka? This new rule screwed them, and they don’t owe anything to Bud Selig.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: It’s in NPB’s interests that MLB honors NPB’s reserve clause.
1:08
Comment From Alan
Goldeneye and Mario Kart ruined my academic career. Nice to see that they still have the same effect at work.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: I was a mediocre student and I turned out OK.
1:08
Comment From Goldeneye
Oddjob sucks if auto-aim is on. Lots of headshots that would hit torso of any other player.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: But even if auto-aim is off, manual aim is harder when you’re used toa different height for all the other characters.
1:09
Comment From Marcus A.
Sorry, my McGriff question got cut off. I meant a really solid accumulator whose peak is not very high but was quite good for quite a while.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: John’s still not bad then.
1:09
Comment From jda
Oh, wow – what a fantastic spectacle it would be to have you as part of the HoF announcement chat. The other participants will be telling their grandchildren about it years from now.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: But I also like being employed.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: If I have a nervous breakdown in the middle of a live chat, I can’t imagine that’s a great career-move.
1:10
Comment From STiVo
Which is a harder concept for most fans to grasp: (1) regression to the mean; or (2) BABIP?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: regression
1:10
Comment From Jake
Is there an argument against Curt Schilling HOF that isn’t, y’know, full of stupid?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Not really. You can argue against him for a personal Hall of Fame that has about 20-30 pitchers, but the case against him being in the real Hall of Fame is terrible.
1:11
Comment From Joe
Why is Fangraph’s minor league FIP always calculated with a 3.2 constant instead of changing it so that the league FIP matches the league ERA?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: I think mostly becuase FG doens’t really put a lot of emphasis on minor league data.
1:12
Comment From STiVo
Does ZiPS use velocity for pitchers as an input variable?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:12
Comment From RotoLando
Would you ever wear a bowtie?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Maybe. Bowties aren’t great on fat guys unless you’re going to go *really* over the top.
1:12
Comment From Marcus A.
Do people at ESPN ever ask you to explain advanced statistic concepts to them? Or try to argue against them or anything like that?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: The former sometimes, the latter not really.
1:14
Comment From StevePete
Do you ever feel bad about ripping Morris? It’s writers that you should rip… not him as a person
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I’ve only ripped Morris as a player. But, he’s also been vocal in favor of his case, so that would make him fair game.
1:15
Comment From Todd
Who doesnt belong in the HOF that is currently inducted?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Schalk, Hunter, Perez, Kelly, McCarthy, Lloyd Waner, Marquard, Haines, Schoendienst, Rizzuto (etc)
1:16
Comment From Marcus A.
Bkgeneral got your argument completely backwards.
1:16
Comment From juan pierres mustache
meanwhile, my ads are advising me to buy an AutoCAD program for $$3932 (not a typo, they actually used two $ signs)
1:17
Dan Szymborski: $$ means squared dollars I think so that’s what, 15 million or thereabouts?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: I think you can get an autoCAD program for less than that, though I’m not an expert.
1:17
Comment From David
When does the Blue Jays ZiPS Projections come out?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Blue Jays are likely an end-of-January team.
1:18
Dan Szymborski: A few more and then time to go. This is your last chance for random ridiculous Qs!
1:18
Comment From RotoLando
RE: The cartoon sexy girls auto-play video… set your browser to not play videos automatically. I just did this at work.
1:18
Dan Szymborski: While i’m not sure what ad you’re referring to, cartoon sexy girls sounds like a terrific ad.
1:18
Comment From Eminor3rd
Custom DanGraph: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=293,1010897
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Rice was borderline for me too. I think I would have erred in not putting him in, but unlike Morris, Rice *did* have a real peak.
1:19
Comment From The Girl in the ads
If your wife is worried about a video game ad, I think there may be other issues at a fundamental level. But, I’m glad you like my pixels.
1:19
Comment From Colvin
FWIW, I think the ads are user generated. Mine are mostly Amazon and Disney.
1:19
Dan Szymborski: So then, if you have cartoon sexy girls ads, it’s because you’ve expressed a like for sites dealing in cartoon sexy girls!
1:19
Comment From Yo-Yo
Let’s say Kershaw gets $250MM and blows out his shoulder and never pitches during that contract. Does that change baseball free agency at all, or would it just be a blip?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Blip. Teams want players and risk is always factored into the price.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: If you had a pitcher that was *guaranteed* to be worth exactly 5 WAR a year next 10 years, no more, no less, then that contract should be 10/350 or so on the market.
1:21
Comment From Jake
Next year, does Youkilis get posted?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: YOukilis wouldn’t be part of the posting system, as far as I can tell.
1:21
Comment From juan pierres mustache
I would love to see you in the HOF chat because the followup piece from the ombudsman would be a gem
1:21
Comment From tylersnotes
i would have liked to read you on twitter when it was decided that the hall of fame would be in cooperstown since that was “the birthplace of baseball”
1:22
Dan Szymborski: AAAUUUGHH ZIM SMASH
1:22
Comment From Isaac
What’s your opinion of Deadspin buying a HOF vote?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: the deadspin readers will do a better job than the average BBWAA member.
1:22
Comment From Goldeneye
Favorite multiplayer level? I like stack and facility.
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Bunker.
1:23
Comment From Tom
Jayson Stark seems like a fun guy. True?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: He seems like a cool guys.
1:23
Comment From Wolfie
You could go for the Jonah Hill in Wolf of Wall St. look if you wore a bowtie
1:23
Comment From Tims Neighbor
There’s nothing that subtly mocks a person’s formal gathering quite like a bow tie. “You say you want me to take you seriously, this bow tie says otherwise.”
1:24
Dan Szymborski: I hate dressing up.
1:24
Comment From Dan
Is the zips PC rebotted yet, re: Zobrists extra-2b D?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I’d have to think about it.
1:24
Comment From AdBlock
Hahahahahahaha, you fools!
1:24
Comment From STiVo
Odd Job did end up taking direct headshots fairly often, though
1:24
Comment From Bkgeneral
I placed my own argument. IF you are okay have artifacts from Bonds or Rose, you should be okay with enshrining them.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: I’m still confused then – why were you so mad at me earlier?
1:25
Comment From Goldeneye
Perfect Dark better than Goldeneye?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: If released at same time, yes, but at that point, the engine was kind of played out.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Though we did still play a lot of it, not as much as Goldeneye
1:25
Comment From Marcus A.
Xbox one, PS4, or neither as you’re more of a PC gamer?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: I’ll probably have a PS4 by the spring because MLB The Show. Unless the PC version is atrocious, I will always choose the PC version over teh console version.l
1:26
Comment From RotoLando
Man, you know what I could go for right now? MS-PAINT sexy girls. Aw yeah.
1:26
Dan Szymborski: I can barely draw things that are recognized as people.
1:26
Comment From tylersnotes
you are starting a detroit tigers hall of fame. Does verlander go in before Morris?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:26
Comment From STiVo
Will the Orioles be better or worse (true talent) in 2014 than 2013?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Worse.
1:26
Comment From Dave
Who is your go-to character in Super Smash Bros?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, haven’t played much.
1:27
Comment From Chad
One player you are still surprised to find is in the Hall of Fame. Mine would be Don Sutton
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Ned Hanlon maybe?
1:27
Comment From Chad
I missed out on GoldenEye, but OddJob sounds a lot like King Hippo.
1:28
Comment From Marcus A.
Is this the most frustrating offseason for you as an Orioles fan ever? I’m frustrated and I am completely indifferent towards them.
1:28
Dan Szymborski: It’s very frustrating. It’s one thing for them to be sad and pathetic when the team’s sad and pathetic anyway, but another when the team’s actually decent.
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Most frustrating O’s offseason for me since after the 1997 season.
1:30
Dan Szymborski: They signed Doug Drabek, Joe Carter, and Norm Charlton all within like a week
1:30
Comment From Enrique Palazzo
Steamer really high on George Springer. What say ZIPS?
1:30
Dan Szymborski: High
1:31
Comment From Sadwick
I had the random thought that maybe the Orioles have been holding out to make a play for Tanaka, but I hesitate to give them that much credit.
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Oh, they’re not.
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Duquette already told Roch Kubatko that Tanaka wasn’t in play weeks ago.
1:31
Dan Szymborski: O’s are so fucking lazy that they can’t even be bothered to feign interest in top players.
1:31
Comment From Jake
Surprised by Don Sutton? 85.8 WAR, 5282 IP, career 3.24 FIP, 300 win, 3000 strikouts, nice guy, broadcaster for Braves and Dodgers
1:32
Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time to end the chat for this week!
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me as always.!


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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


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Mike Rizzo
Guest
Mike Rizzo
2 years 6 months ago

My team has 2 very good starting pitchers who are 2 years before their first free agency – Fister and Zimmermann. Can you think of some instances where a pitcher made it to the last two years before his first free agency, did not sign a deal that locked him up for those two years and his first few years of FA, and regretted it (e.g., got hurt or dropped off significantly in performance)?

LaLoosh
Guest
LaLoosh
2 years 6 months ago

well I can see I didn’t miss anything…

RC
Guest
RC
2 years 6 months ago

” You know what I hate? When sportswriters are seen as the bottom of the writing pyramid, slack-jawed mouth-breathers too stupid to do anything else with their lives.”

Most of them are.

They don’t use sources properly, they don’t do research, and they almost never ask interesting questions.

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