Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/3/13

12:03
Dan Szymborski: On your mark, get set, terrible.
12:03
Dan Szymborski: (How I feel about the last 18 hours of Tigers moves)
12:03
Comment From Bret
Which is the better signing: Dioner Navarro or AJ Pierzysnki?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: Dioner kebab.
12:04
Comment From Brock Holt!
Brock Holt!
12:05
Comment From Guest
The Orioles did something! The Orioles did something! The Orioles *falls asleep*

12:05
Comment From Doug
Personally, I’m fine if you want to spend the first, like, 15 minutes ripping on the Tigers.
12:05
Comment From LudeBurger
well well well, look who decided to show up
12:05
Dan Szymborski: Sorry, was having TwitterFights©
12:05
Comment From David
Mike Rizzo was asked specifically about Robinson Cano. His response: “We’ll do whatever we have to do to improve the ballclub.” Should we read anything into the non-denial, or is it just typical meaningless GM speak?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: meaningless GM speak. I wouldn’t take seriously anything a GM says ever.
12:06
Dan Szymborski: If a GM was on fire and you had a bucket of water, the GM would categorically deny the rumors that anything was amiss
12:07
Comment From PT
I know it’s Red Sox ZiPS basking time, but which team is up next?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Phillies tomorrow and Cardinals Friday.
12:07
Comment From Joe Blantons Bourbon
Last night was fun, thanks!
12:07
Comment From Dan
How does Napoli break down D-wise? not to DMB it too much, but is that Vg at 1B?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t made any DMB decisions.
12:07
Comment From Batty Numpo
AJ!? So much for clubhouse guys in Boston. Isn’t he a known dinkface?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he always tops those most-hated player ranks in those poll questions asked players.
12:07
Dan Szymborski: But he can hit a little. The best thing for clubhouse chemistry is wins.
12:08
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
I think Navarro is the better signing overall, but Pierzynski made more sense for the Sox considering the Ross platoon factor
12:09
Comment From Jam
Which of the non-tendered players can expect the most interest on the FA market? Bailey? Hudson? Arencibia?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: No real exciting names. Possibly Axford.
12:09
Comment From Does it matter?
Surely DD has something else up his sleeve after this fister deal. Any theories as to what it is?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Well, given the last day, possibly another shitty idea.
12:09
Comment From 2ndHS
Which injury risk reliever would you rather take a chance on: Jesse Crain or Ryan Madson?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: Crain I think. Madson’s been gon e awhile.
12:10
Comment From Gareth
Tommy hanson and Daniel Hudson are non tender candidates.

If they are let go tonight, could they be Possible Kazmir’s for 2014?

The Hanson comparison may be apt – Like Kazmir he was a Top prospect, was traded to the Angels where he proceeded to be abysmal. Hanson is still only 27!

Hudson – So Talented, So unfortunate with injuries. He’s 26!

A team could also trade for Brett Anderson now the A’s have Kazmir in the fold. He earns 8 million in 2014 with a team option for 12 million for 2015.
However: 175, 112, 83, 35, 44. Those numbers? His innings pitched each season for the last 5 years.
Anderson is still only 25 though! If Jed Lowrie can stay healthy for a year………

A Toast to the new market inefficiency – LOTTERY TICKETS!

12:10
Dan Szymborski: Both would be interesting signings for a team like the Astros.
12:10
Dan Szymborski: I think Hudson ends up back in Arizona
12:10
Comment From Sirras One
Most surprising non-tender?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: Axford surprised me a bit. I’m not a fan of him, but surprised the Giants non-tendered Rosario
12:11
Comment From Dan
Do you think Mike Ohlman can be a rich man’s Ryan Doumit for the O’s ultimately?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: Possibly. Or might just be Ryan Doumit.
12:11
Comment From JP
Shoulda been free agents Votto and Wainwright. What would they be looking at if they hadn’t signed extensions?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Hmm
12:12
Dan Szymborski: I need a Dan is Thinking GIF
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Or have someone write me a theme
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Probably 7/170 for Votto or so.
12:14
Dan Szymborski: 5/100 for Wainwright?
12:14
Comment From Patrick
Was A.J Pierzynski the best move for the Red Sox considering their options and for the future to not stifle the development from Swihart and Vazquez
12:14
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a solid move.
12:14
Comment From John H.
So how is Doug Fister’s fantasy value impacted?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Better. Nicer ERA thanks to change in league, park, and not having Cabrera/Fielder getting grounders.
12:14
Comment From Guest
So the Tigers basically traded a top-15 starter for non-prospects, a utility guy, and a 39-year-old closer?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t call Ray a non-prospect
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Probably 4-7 in Nats system or so
12:15
Comment From Joey
Will hosmer pick up where he left off this past season and be able to maintain that production for a full season?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: I hope so, but every time I say nice things about him, it jinxes him, so Eric Hosmer is a commie Nazi bastard who eats people’s butts until his mouth is full of butt.
12:16
Comment From John H.
Torn with choosing a last keeper… Swisher, Hart, or Markakis
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Probably Swisher, though it’ snot an overwhelming group
12:16
Comment From Orioles Fan
So how much of the Johnson’s 10 million goes into Angelos’ pocket? 8? 9?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: I’ve got a piece up on ESPN on the O’s and Johnson, which says pretty much what I feel. http://es.pn/1gBxNH9
12:17
Comment From Pale Hose
Is there extra value in having an everyday player in comparison to a platoon player? Would you rather have 600 PAs of 2WAR normal platoon splits or 200PAs of 2WAR with extreme splits?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Always depends on the specifics of the situation. I know you guys hate when I give that answer, but rules written in stone will get you in trouble.
12:18
Comment From Spencer
It’s Hot Stove season! The most exciting time of the year!……..unless you’re a Braves fan.
12:18
Dan Szymborski: At least they’re a good team as is.
12:18
:
12:18
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Do your feelings about the Tigers last 18 hours account for them signing Joe Nathan just now?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Yes. DAN SMASH. And I’m not even a Tigers fan.
12:19
Comment From SMC
I think Detroit will be in on Cano though. Just a hunch.
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Hopefully, though essentially using Fister savings on Nathan wouldn’t preven thtat.
12:19
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Dombrowski wanted to balance out the sabermetric good will he god from the Fielder/Kinsler deal
12:19
Comment From Gila Monster
The Xander Boegarts-Troy Tulowiski comparison really sets the bar high.
12:20
Dan Szymborski: It’s just the Top Comp of many, many compared players. Don’t read too much into just who #1 is.
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Adrian Beltre and Jay Bell are also on that list.
12:21
Dan Szymborski: But so’s Bobby Rose.
12:21
Comment From ConcernedTigersFan
It all started so good with the Fielder trade but now I can’t see the endgame. Jayson Stark says that the Tigers are still taking calls on Scherzer although a trade is unlikely. I thought maybe they’re looking to shed salary but then they add Nathan. What is happening.
12:21
Dan Szymborski: That’s pretty much what I said yesterday. In fact, I think I even said I didn’t understand their endgame.
12:22
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Brett Anderson for Drew Stubbs? A
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Wait, did this happen?
12:22
Comment From Gareth
With the Indians losing both Ubaldo and Kazmir, Do you like: Tommy hanson and Daniel Hudson (non tendered). Brett Anderson (trade).

The Hanson was a Top prospecthe’s been terrible for the Angels. hes still only 27!

Hudson – So Talented, So unfortunate with injuries. He’s 26!

A team could also trade for Brett Anderson earns 8 million in 2014 with a team option for 12 million for 2015.
However: 175, 112, 83, 35, 44. Those numbers? His innings pitched each season for the last 5 years.
Anderson is still only 25 though!

12:23
Dan Szymborski: It’s a possibility. Though I think they’re going to need an inning-eater in there somewhere.
12:23
Comment From SMC
Why does everyone think AJ is a good signing? He’s old with a horrible OBP. And he’s old. By the way, his OBP was .293 last year.
12:23
Dan Szymborski: Catcher as a group are pretty lousy
12:23
Dan Szymborski: He had a 94 OPS+ last year. Offense is down.
12:23
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Brett Anderson for Drew Stubbs, A’s get outfield depth and a platooner for Reddick and clear salary, Indians get rotation upside, who hangs up?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: A’s. I think there will be at least *some* interest in Anderson. I have little in Stubbs.
12:24
Comment From Guest
who do you see getting the 2B gig for the O’s next year out of Weeks, Roberts and Schoop (and Flaherty I guess)? seems like it will be open competition.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I think Jemile Weeks gets first shot in an attempt to make it look better ot the fanbase, which generally is going to value Magic Closers more highly than the stat-friendly crowd
12:26
Comment From Gareth
“Beep beep beep.” What’s that sound?

Its the sound of 29 GM’s running through their contacts list looking to sign the non tendered john axford and daniel hudson for a combined 7 million dollars for the 2014 season.

Yes please!

12:26
Comment From Ed from Tampa
What are your thoughts on Jose Bautista outlook next season(decline in OPS four years in a rwo)?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Continued decline. Will still be solid, of course.
12:26
Comment From BobbyS
AJ is hated by opponents… it seems most guys who play WITH him really like him, while he’s on their team
12:26
Dan Szymborski: He’s like that girlfriend none of your friends like
12:26
Comment From Guest
I always thought AJ was hated by other teams, but was liked on his own team?
12:26
Comment From David
Speaking of Rizzo, he turned the PTBNL in the Morse deal (Krol), a 19th round pick with a career 74 wRC+ and a below average glove (Lombardozzi) and a 12th round pick with upside but inconsistent results and serious command issues (Ray)…into Doug Fister. I still don’t understand how.
12:27
Comment From Guest
Dear Dan,
12:27
Dan Szymborski: A Dear Dan letter?
12:27
Comment From Adam
Could you see Tommy Hanson being a buy low candidate for a team like the Brewers? I would think that he would be given a lot of opportunity.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Yes. Or Astros.
12:27
Comment From Ed from Tampa
What are your thoughts on Ryan Braun performance next year, will he be under so much pressure that he will wilt?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: He’ll be fine.
12:27
Comment From Gila Monster
I don’t get the Pierzysnki signing. He lacks skills like pitch framing and plate discipline that youd expect a saber savy team like the Red Sox to value.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Most pitchers do. Carlos Santana isn’t a free agent.
12:27
Comment From Gareth
The tigers have now essentally traded fielder for castellanos, fister for smyly, replaced infante with kinsler and retired Leland for a rookie manager. And they seem to be interested in overpaying for a soon to be 40 year old closer.

As an Indians fan, I can live with that.

12:28
Dan Szymborski: I liked the Fielder trade. Not the other stuff.
12:28
Comment From Dan
Am I crazy in thinking Nick Tepesch can be a #3 starter ultimately? I think his numbers last year were already there if his HR rate was bad luck and not skil.
12:28
Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly a possibility for Tepesch Mode.
12:28
Comment From tehzachatak
Dear Dan,
Why did you project to have ??? Everyone knows won’t play that much because . In conclusion, your projections suck!
Sincerely,
A disgruntled fan
12:28
Dan Szymborski: heh
12:28
Comment From Billy
We can swear here? Ass! Balls! Fart!
12:28
Dan Szymborski: *I* can swear. Just not you guys.
12:29
:
12:29
Comment From Ryan
Robbie Ray & Castellanos for Price (maybe Porcello, too)? I just have to believe he’s trying to stockpile assets.
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Fun Fact: ZiPS projects David Price as 0.6 WAR better than Doug Fister over the next two years.
12:29
Comment From dbet
Do you think RedXIII could make a good center fielder? I argued with a friend of mine that he would have trouble hitting, but could play some mean defense.
12:29
Dan Szymborski: He’s quite fast and has a small strike zone. Not sure he can use both paws to hold a bat.
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Barret would be solid in the lineup, since he’s essentially David Ortiz.
12:29
Comment From lynn ma
What are the chances that the Red Sox could trade righthander Ryan Dempster without paying some of the $13.25 million remaining on the final year of his contract (or taking on another contract of questionable value)?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: Slim.
12:30
Comment From Dan
To be clear, Ryan Doumit is a decent thing to end up for in limbo catcher prospects? Above average hitter at peak + emergency catcher.
12:30
Dan Szymborski: Being Doumit isn’t so bad. They can’t all be Mike Piazza.
12:30
Comment From Spencer
Tommy Hanson had a funky delivery that gave him good stuff but also have him an injured shoulder. Changing those mechanics gave him awful stuff. He’s pretty much un-rosterable at this point.
12:30
Dan Szymborski: Bad teams have the luxury of taking chances.
12:30
Comment From Jam
Does the Johnson/Weeks trade make more sense for the Os as a salary dump or are they actually excited about Weeks?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: It’s a salary dump. If they’re excited about Weeks, I’m going to open my veins in a warm bath.
12:31
Comment From Dan
the theme for Dan is thinking is Lou Reed’s “Metal Machine Music”
12:31
Comment From Gila Monster
Why is ZiPS so bearish on young starters?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: Because reality is bearish on young starters. There are a lot more terrific pitching prospects than good major league pitchers.
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Reality is bearish on ptichers, period.
12:32
Comment From Auto Tune
Zim bop, dooby dewop bop, a Zim bop
12:32
Comment From Guest
Given what the Nats just DIDN’T spend on a pitching upgrade, they sort of have to be in on the Cano bidding. Don’t they? I mean is there anything else out there for them to spend their money on?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: It would be fun if they were. And they could trade Anthony Rendon for Nick Markakis. OK, probably not :-(
12:33
Comment From Joey
Will Taijuan Walker begin the season in the Mariners rotation?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Strong possibility
12:33
Comment From Gareth
Salty, Morneau, Brian Roberts, Furcal, Michael Young, McClouth, Gutierrez, Kubel, Morse. A free Agent team of hitters for the Ages.
12:33
Comment From AL
In your opinion could you rank the following by best career: Gyorko, Wong, Rendon, Gennett.
12:34
Dan Szymborski: Wong, Gyorko, Rendon, Gennett. Rendon could be higher if he demonstrated more durability
12:34
Comment From Guest
Curious why the decrease in Stephen Drew’s 2014 projection when compared to 2013′s when he exceeded it in real life last season?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: For one, another year older, so more hcance of decline and less chance of upside.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: And good seasons also farther in the rear view mirror
12:36
Comment From Lenard
I think what this means is Tigers are going to keep Miggy at 3rd, force Kinsler to move to first and Lombardozzi is your new starting 2nd baseman\
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Oh God, that’s cruel
12:36
Comment From GSon
With the A’s signing Scott Kazmir, does this open the door to a trade of Brett Anderson to the Indians?. Would an Asdrubal Cabrera/Drew Stubbs package from the Indians net a Brett Anderson/Michael(s)Choice/Ynoa from the A’s?
12:37
Dan Szymborski: Possiblity, though I would not be interested in Stubbs.
12:38
Comment From Chicago Mark
Is Fister a top 15 starter? Lower probably, right?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: Maybe a little lower, but he’s right around there
12:38
Comment From Nats Fan
will this be the most lopsided trade this offseason at least at face value?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Oh, there are plenty of moves to come. Not quite sure if I hate Fister trade or Bourjos trade more.
12:39
Comment From Gareth
So they’ve just released a new Pic of Doug Fister at his signing with the NATS: http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20091215090240/heman/images/e/e5/Fisto.jpg
12:39
Comment From AL
Do you think that Gausman will be in the rotation to start the year, and if so does he stick. Could you see 2-2.5 WAR out of next year?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’ll start the year in the rotation, but I think he’ll get there. Still optimsitic about somewhere around averageish performance
12:39
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Do the Tigers keep up their trend of using former Indians stars against us by signing Choo?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Honestly? After the last day, I have No @#% idea what the Tigers are doing.
12:41
Dan Szymborski: They could sign Choo. They could sign Cano. They could trade Castellanos for Ryan Flaherty. They could sign Jim Eisenreich. They could close up shop and concentrate on become a potato chip manufacturer. Anything’s possible.
12:41
Comment From Sirras One
Does Ike Davis enter spring training with a team other than the Mets? If so, who do you think gets him and what was the trade?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: I think he stays with the Mets.
12:41
Comment From Table
Dodgers nearing deal with Brian Wison, 2 years 18 mill sound about right?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: About right for the market, but still, meh.
12:41
Comment From Semperty
Is there a reason that ZiPS is so low on Boston? I don’t have an issue with it, just wondered if there was a specific reason that led to the low end results.
12:41
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is so low? That’s a mid-90 wins set of projections.
12:42
Comment From Guest
Do GM’s come up with these trades on their own? What panel of assistants would agree to the Fister deal?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Always depends on the organization. I dont’ do straight reporting, so I can’t break confidences and talk about specifics.
12:43
Dan Szymborski: I already got heat some years ago when I accidentally talked about Lucchino/Epstein friction in an offhand comments months before the story broke.
12:43
Comment From Forsyth
Any projections you find odd? Barnes 4.20 ERA seems low, and I think Bogaerts may outperform his projected .331 OBP. Thoughts?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: Barnes low? A mean projection of better than league average for a young pitcher who hasn’t had meaningful time above AA is low? You may be too excessively optimistic about piching prospects!
12:44
Comment From Gila Monster
So the Tigers traded away a top starter to waste money on an ancient Joe Nathan, further blocking Bruce Rondon….wow.
12:44
Dan Szymborski: Pretty much.
12:44
Comment From GSon
Does the Doug Fister trade devalue & disappoint the Crazies at the Cubs Trade Forums?.. Will some Xanax and low cost whiskey help?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: I’m surprised someone didn’t offer more.
12:45
Comment From Batty Numpo
Why did Boston sour on Salty so much? Is AJ that much of a superior hitter? ‘Cuz he’s def a worse fielder.
12:46
Dan Szymborski: Salty’s not that great. If he gets a .372 BABIP again in 2014, you should worship whatever god Saltalamacchia believes in.
12:46
Comment From Gareth
If you were the Indians, Would you trade for Brett Anderson? $20 million 2 year commitment. Betting on health…….
12:46
Dan Szymborski: It’s quite a bit risk. I’m leaning towards no.
12:46
Comment From Oren
With Navarro in and Arencibia out, what does Navarro’s projection in Toronto look like?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: I tweeted both Navarro and Cibia projections last night
12:48
Comment From AL
Who do see having more a better season, Jared Cosart or Gausman?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Gausman. Cosart’s peripherals were pug fugly and he walked way too many guys in the minors
12:48
Dan Szymborski: He allowed more walks last year than the California penal system.
12:49
Comment From Jeff
So how broken is Tommy Hanson? Daniel Hudson? I’m all for low-risk any-reward type signings, but it seems like they might not even be worth the opportunity cost.
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Hanson’s mostly broken, but worth a chance on a bad team.
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Hudson absolutely worth a flyer, though I would have to admit to being very concerned that he needed a second Tommy John surgery halfway through his first rehab start from the first Tommy John surgery.
12:49
Comment From Gareth
As an Indians Fan I am delighted by Dave Dombrowski’s actions this offseason……..
12:49
Comment From Dave
Stephen Drew or Jed Lowrie to Pirates, move Mercer to 2nd base as a platoon and a super utility guy.
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Interesting, but I think unlikely
12:50
Comment From Semperty
Isn’t any MLB comp for a prospect setting the bar really, really high?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: They’re recent year comps, not future comps.
12:51
Dan Szymborski: And they’re comped based on equivalent performance. I guy hitting 350/400 in the minors won’t have a guy hitting 350/400 in the majors as a comp
12:51
Comment From Lois Lane
Dan, I’ve never seen Jeff Samardzija and Lance Lynn in the same room. Since both became full-time starters pre-2012, their respective K%, BB%, FIP-, ERA-, IP, and WAR are all *insanely* close. I’m getting suspicious. (By the way, the “Lynn” half is “two years younger” with “two more years of team control.” So why does he have no trade value?)
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Lynn’s a little chunky to have played wide receiver.
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Even after losing a bit of weight.
12:52
Comment From Thomas
How high is ZIPS going to rate the Platinum Glove Shortstop in Atlanta’s defense?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: I think he got a +19 or so
12:53
Comment From Spencer
Would I be foolish to offer Jose Reyes and Sonny Gray for Bogaerts in otto?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: I woudlnt’ do it.
12:53
Comment From SMC
At what point should NYY just let Cano walk? Is it possible to sign Infante/Beltran/Choo for the same or similar money and still be as good of a team?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: If they can’t bring him in for 200, probably best to move on.
12:53
Comment From Local Business
Do you have a list somewhere of when the different teams’ Zips are coming out?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Take last year’s order and flip it. Except for the first 3 teams (BOS/PHI/STL) that were awarded as prizes for trivia and for my Music Contest.
12:54
Comment From Eastern NC
I mean, how good can Doug Fister be in the NL? Perfect. Now, if the Nats could only hit…..
12:54
Comment From Jay
Why did Billy Beane just allocate so much of his modest payroll to a decent closer? If Jack Z had made the same deal would he be skewered?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: I’m not quite sure. I kinda think that Beane plans to move him again and the O’s just wussed out on non-tender night.
12:54
Comment From Gareth
The latest Fister trade was eye opening, but Nothing will ever top fister for furbush for sheer “You can’t make this up” hilarity.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Plus, the names in that trade make you giggle in a 12-year-old kind of way
12:55
Comment From The Oberamtmann
Did you do any Thanksgivukkah recipes? Because we did and they were awesome
12:55
Dan Szymborski: I did not. My sister held Thanksgiving and I didn’t make anything.
12:56
Comment From SMC
AJ had ELEVEN WALKS in 2013. E-L-E-V-E-N. With 78 K’s.
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Nobody ever said he had better plate discipline than a Biggest Loser contestant.
12:56
Comment From The Oriole Bird
Jemile Weeks is pretty much the definition of replacement-level. Ugh. Is there any way to see the Johnson trade as anything other than stupid for the O’s?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Well, if they use that money smartly and do not try Weeks as starter.
12:56
Comment From Steve
Surely Robinson Cano is just waiting for Chris Getz to sign somewhere so he’ll know how much he can reasonably demand, right?
12:56
Comment From Mariano Rivera
Nothing wrong with old people… Does ZiPS give me a nice final hoorah for my post retirement season?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: I always project players 1 year past their announced retirement.
12:57
Dan Szymborski: And sometimes it comes in handy, like it did with Clemens.
12:57
Comment From Gareth
I think the Anderson for Stubbs Idea is a sound one. Its evened out by the fact that Anderson has a possible Is a free agent in 2 years, has 20 million owed him and can’t stay healthy.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: I think someone will take a chance on Anderson and give up a *little* something better. I’d rather give away Anderson for free. Even Stubbs defense was off last year and the legal minimum for his salary is a hair over 2 million
12:58
Comment From Table
CANO TO THE NATS!!!! 8 years 200 mill!!!!
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Ha, if that had happened, twitter would be going apeshit
12:59
Comment From Table
thats the third Tommy Hanson question you have answered, boo to you sir
12:59
Comment From j6takish
AJ can’t be the only jerk in the sport, he is the only one who gets any press though. Any other guys you have heard of being insufferable?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: No comment.
12:59
Comment From SMC
The Tigers didn’t *NEED* to trade Fister. They had elite SP depth. Now they don’t.
12:59
Comment From Harry
Does Either + $30M get the Dodgers Furbush and Ackley from Seattle?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: It might. mariners have soured on Ackley and are obsessed with accumulating DH types.
1:00
Comment From Gareth
Dear Dan, Stats make my Brain hurt. I also think that guy typed just the words “Dear Dan” because when you press “ENTER” on the keyboard in this chat format, it sends the message out to you instead of dropping down a line.
1:00
Comment From Shark Mapiro
I read your Jeopardy image in Will Ferrell impersonating Alex Trebek’s voice.
1:00
Comment From Jono
Does it bug you when people write “saber” instead of “SABR” or “sabr”?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: No, it’s the common word used and even though it’s named after SABR, SABR and sabermetrics really have little to do with each other
1:01
Comment From Not really Max Marchi
Hey, Dan! Who decides when pitch-framing numbers will *finally* get added to catcher WAR totals? Apple-man? Cameron? Burning bush? (I wonder if the StL sportswriting twosome who voted Molina MVP will get validation when 2-3 WAR is suddenly added post facto to his 2013 total.)
1:01
Dan Szymborski: They have a Meeting of the Davids and a white plume comes out of the chimney
1:01
Comment From Gareth
I want to meet Ricky Weeks so I can sing “Ricky don’t lose that number” to him.
1:02
Comment From Cochise
Are the Mariners really going to over pay Cruz?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: I believe that is a likely possibility.
1:03
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
If everyone was Mike Piazza there would be too many Italians
1:03
Dan Szymborski: A Mike Piazza cloning accident gone wrong sounds like a good sitcom setup
1:03
Comment From Bud Norris Sr.
What do you think of the Sun’s suggestion of Bud Norris as closer next year? If nothing else, it would save the O’s about 90 innings of horrible pitching.
1:03
Dan Szymborski: Meh.
1:04
Comment From Gareth
Who signs TANAKA? No luxury tax penalties for signing him, so its gotta be the Yankees, right?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: I’m not even sure that he will be signed given MLB’s epic mess with the posting system.
1:04
Comment From Shauntell
Hanigan going to Rays in apparent 3-wasy deal…
1:04
Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to check it out.
1:04
Comment From Thomas
What was the last Rays trade that you hated for the Rays? Should smart GMs just stop fielding their calls?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: OK, turn on that dan is thinking music
1:05
Dan Szymborski: While I’m thinking, enjoy this image.
1:05
:
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Lueke trade?
1:06
Comment From Gareth
Which team DO you follow Dan? You seem mad at the Tigers…………….
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Orioles.
1:06
Comment From Sadwick
Well you’re certainly not alone in not understanding the Tiger’s moves. The fans don’t understand, the writers don’t understand, and I’m pretty sure Dombrowski doesn’t understandeither
1:06
Comment From Gareth
I liked that guy who said if this was fantasy baseball, the Commish would get 28 veto’s of the Fister trade.
1:07
Comment From dbet
Maybe they will trade Cabrera for Albert Pujols
1:07
Comment From Gareth
Larry Lucchino sounds like a Childrens TV character.
1:07
Comment From Gareth
The great thing about Bogaerts is he can change into whatever you fear the most (like Snape in a dress).
1:07
Dan Szymborski: A few more and then time for me to go for the week. If you have any random ridiculous AMA-style question, this is the time.
1:07
Comment From Anton
Could the Red Sox target Chase Headley in a trade and play him or Middlebrooks at first?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: That would kind of be fun, but playign Headley at first is a waste of his talents and I dont’ think Middlebrooks would be valuable enough offensively to be a 1B
1:08
Comment From Guest
Are there terms announced on the Nathan deal yet?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Not as of an hour ago. I’m only half-watching Twitter now.
1:08
Comment From Gareth
Oh you should see the Tigers SB forum. They railroaded a Nats fan called “Freckles” last night. It was pretty brutal. Alot of upset Tiger fans. Fister was loved there, and for good reason.
1:08
Comment From Gila Monster
In the most predictable off season move, The Rays have acquired Ryan Hanigan….Red Sox whiffed on that one.
1:08
Comment From Gareth
LOL. “Sour on Salty.”
1:08
Comment From Sadwick
Ah, Xanex and whiskey, or as I like to call it, breakfast.
1:09
Comment From Tom
Any chance you’ll publish your GAR rankings …
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Heh, I’m still wrestling on what to do about 19th century pitchers, if anything.
1:09
Comment From Gareth
Lynn is Fat. Shark is thin. End of debate.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Lynn’s lost some weight, though he’s not a WR.
1:10
Dan Szymborski: NO MORE BRETT ANDERSON/DREW STUBBS QUESTIONS!!
1:10
Comment From JTT
What are your thoughts on teams with a longstanding problem with filling a specific positions internally? 1st base for the Rays, Shortstop for the Red sox, 2nd base for the Tigers etc. Is it poor drafting/scouting? Or just bad luck?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: A mix. Boring answer, but I think luck does play a part.
1:10
Comment From GSon
Would you not making anything for thanksgiving be addition by subtraction for the meal?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: I’m actually a solid cook.
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Just the other day, I made a cider-brined pork roast with leeks, potato, fennel
1:11
Comment From GSon
Projecting players one year past their announced retirement should be named the Brett Favre Projection..
1:12
Comment From Ed
MLBTR just announced that Reds are trading Hanigan to the Rays. Thoughts? What is the breakdown of 2014 PA between Hanigan, Molina, and post season hero Lobaton?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: I know no more than you guys yet! I’ve been in here the last hour
1:12
Comment From Table
whoa yur like answering questions that were submitted 10 minutes in the past, trippy
1:12
Dan Szymborski: It’s very easy to fall behind. I can only answer a % of Qs
1:12
Comment From Gareth
Tommy Hanson peaked too soon with MMMM Bop.
1:12
Comment From Gareth
Krol sound like he’s a buddy of Thor’s from Asgard.
1:12
Comment From Bret
John Jaso for Josh Lueke was a terrible trade for Tampa.
1:13
Comment From GSon
Dear Dan.. Thinking is not one of your strong suits..
1:13
Comment From Guest
it doesn’t matter which teams they end up with, but I want a Shark/Salty combo so people have to always say their names together.
1:13
Comment From Table
RE:Should smart GMs stop fielding calls from Rays. Na yo ever heard of win/win?
1:13
Comment From Sadwick
I’m using “Where is my mind” by the Pixies for your thinking music.
1:13
Comment From Gareth
What’s AMA?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Ask me anything
1:13
Comment From Forsyth
Re: Barnes a little low – I meant his ERA was low (I was thinking 4.80 range).
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Ah.
1:13
Comment From Steam
Thanks for your support this weekend. You actually going to play all of those games?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Yes.
1:13
Comment From dbet
Do you ever hang out in California? I would like to meet you!
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I don’t go out west very often. I fly around a lot, but I’m an east of the mississippi kind of guy
1:14
Comment From Table
not sure what “AMA” style is, but who would win in a wrestling match? Brett Anderson or Tommy Hanson? Drew Stubbs as tag in
1:14
Dan Szymborski: Both may be very vulnerable to arm-based submissions
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Brett Anderson’s a little bulkier so probably has a good powerbomb.
1:15
Comment From Marty
What stadium is your favorite to visit as a fan? As a reporter?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Camden. Can’t help it. When I’m granted media access, most times I wander off and get into the main part of the crowd.
1:16
Comment From BobbyS
GSon, who are you?! People think you’re me!
1:16
Comment From Jam
What’s a fair return for Kemp at this point given the injury factor?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Depends on the return. The Dodgers woul dhave to eat a lot at this poitn to get anything.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t pick up Kemp’s contract for free.
1:16
Comment From Cory
I agree that the Fister trade looks horrendous off the bat, but given how often Dombrowski seems to destroy teams in trades, I think he’s earned at least a slight bit of benefit of the doubt.
1:17
Dan Szymborski: I try to evaluate each trade based on the merits.
1:17
Dan Szymborski: No Expert Bonus.
1:17
Comment From Gareth
Hanigan in a Three way? Oh Myyyyy.
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Alyson?
1:17
Comment From Gareth
In regards to the AMA fight – Tommy Hanson would lose as he cannot HIT to save his life.
1:18
Comment From Dan
Is it possible Fister is broken and no one knows it yet or something? That would explain the Tigers, usually a smart team that is great at trades, accepting such a bad deal. Maybe no one else was offering much of substance either and the Nats are just taking him on as a high-rish, high-reward bet? I don’t know, just trying to figure this out.
1:18
Dan Szymborski: I’d be surprised. The Nats are going to investigate his health
1:18
Comment From Gareth
When anylizing trades in a vacuum, do you take the George Clooney or Sandra Bullock approach?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: I don’t get the reference.
1:18
Dan Szymborski: And on that note, I bid you all a fond farewell until next Monday, assuming I do not die during the next 6 days.
1:19
Dan Szymborski: but if I do, DO NOT TWEET MY EXECUTOR, I DO NOT HAVE ALL THE ZIPS COMPLETE.
1:20
Dan Szymborski: As usual, you can find me toiling in the salt mines of Bristol, CT (well, remotely), chats and projections here on FanGraphs, DSzymborski on Twitter (and Steam) and wherever overweight 35 year-old dickhead sportswriters are needed to save history and rewrite the tales that never went wrong!
1:20
Dan Szymborski: Errr, the tales that went wrong.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: In fact, why didn’t Sam Beckett ever leap into say, Otto von Lossow and shoot Hitler in the face? That would seem a more logical event in history to fix than the penny-ante bullshit he usually dealt with.



Print This Post



Dave is a co-founder of USSMariner.com and contributes to the Wall Street Journal.


2 Responses to “Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/3/13”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. The Obvious says:

    Isn’t the California penal system one of the harshest and most barbaric in the world? Pelican Bay, whatup!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Rally says:

    “The great thing about Bogaerts is he can change into whatever you fear the most (like Snape in a dress).”

    That would be his brother, Zartan Bogaerts.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>