Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/3/14

12:00
Dan Szymborski: And heeeere we are.
12:01
Dan Szymborski: First things first, the poll that will be tallied over the course of this chat.
12:01
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12:01
Dan Szymborski: There’s the Tale of the Tape. Now, we return to our regular chat.
12:02
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
So Dan, Delmon Young had a couple good hits yesterday.
12:02
Dan Szymborski: Every good game brings Delmon Young closer to a roster spot. I always root against him as an Oriole.

12:02
Comment From GSon
it’s 12 noon and the chat is starting on time.. did hell freeze over?
12:02
Comment From Vic
Will any of Ervin, Kendrys, or Drew sign my 4/1?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: I’d say 70/30 Drew does, 50/50 Santana does, and I’m convinced Kendrys waits until after the draft now.
12:03
Comment From Inflated GM
Hey Dan. Thanks for doing the chat today! I’m in an AL-only keeper league and have my auction coming up next week. I’m making my first attempt at calculating inflation, and was wondering if you had any tips/suggestions as to how to approach it?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: Not quite sure of the question – wouldn’t you know what your league’s salary cap is year, by year?
12:04
Comment From john
$1 J.Henderson and $5Ozuna for $21 Werth in nl only roto dynasty league?
12:05
Dan Szymborski: $21 is too much to pay for Werth in my eyes. Rather have Henderson. I dont’ think Ozuna’s going to have significant fantasy value though.
12:05
Comment From Vic
Do you think C Gomez continues as a Top 5 fantasy OF?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: I would definitely put him lower than that. I do think his offense will drop back *some* and OF rankings are pretty tough company. He’s more valuable in real life
12:06
Comment From GSon
Miller V Franklin?..who’s going to be the terror of Tacoma and who’s the Super SS in Seattle?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: I think Miller’s the better of the two. Mariners really should explore a trade involving Franklin when the opportunity arises – he’s got more value in what he can fetch than as a backup
12:07
Comment From john
Terry Collins says that EY Jr will start and be his lead-off guy. Now says that Dice-K is his favorite for the SP5 spot. Is it a waste to have a FO with Alderson and co with a guy like Terry Collins who clearly doesn’t care about stats and only wants to coddle veterans?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I’ve noticed these decisions. If this is the kind of decision-making the Mets make during the spring, might as well give everyone an extra month of vacation and ask them to show up bright eyed and busy-tailed on March 15th.
12:08
Comment From DB
What’s your take on Trumbo not batting in the top five. No way they’d show off their huge offseason acquisition batting behind Didi Gregorious, right?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: If you’re not putting him in the 3 hole (spot that leads off the fewest innings), you might as well have him fairly low, behind anyone that sets a table
12:09
Comment From Vic
Who do you like better in a 5 x 5? Gomez, J Upton, Stanton, Bruce?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Bruce.
12:09
Comment From Stephen
Dan, last year steals were overall down quite a bit. Do you foresee a measureable jump up from last year, and do you think the scarcity of last year has caused an overvaluation of speedy players this year like Billy Hamilton?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t get a feel that it was due to any kind of drastic change.
12:11
Dan Szymborski: We’ll see.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Strategically, you should actually see more stolen bases attempts as run scoring goes down – the break-even point becomes lower.
12:12
Comment From Mike
Do you think there’s more upside potential in using Lambo in a first base platoon than going out and getting a Carp for the Pirates?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: I think Carp’s a better fit for a home run park. I think he’s better than Lambo, but as just part of aplatoon, I don’t think it’s that much of a difference maker.
12:13
Dan Szymborski: I think a Reynolds/Carp mix for the Brewers would actually combine to be an above-average 1B.
12:13
Comment From GSon
Javier Baez ran into a couple yesterday.. one was a good at bat or appeared as such.. the other, he was clearly fooled.. Best guess: More making up for being fooled than pitch recognition for Javier at this point?..
12:15
Dan Szymborski: He’s got terrific power potential that he could fulfill very quickly, but he *is* raw on a pitch recognition basis. You’re going to see some ugly at-bats here and there, this is by far the best pitching he’s faced.
12:15
Dan Szymborski: But the crazy pitching artists are few and far between. Most mortals will make mistakes and Baez can destroy those.
12:15
Comment From Edge O
Feliz hasn’t looked sharp so far. What are the chances Soria is closing in Arlington?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go too crazy yet. He’s clearly trying to smooth out his mechanical issues (I believe the team’s said as much). Showed more velocity in the winter. I imagine he has a rpetty good leash as he gets back to where he was
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Now, if he’s having velocity issues 3 weeks from now, then there are a lot of possibilities.
12:17
Comment From Chris
If the M’s signed Morales where does Cano expect him to play?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Heh. He’d get msot of MOrrison’s playing time against lefties for sure, and steal some against righties too.
12:18
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
what do you think of Maikel Franco’s future as an offensive player? The lower than usual for a power hitter K rates have me very encouraged…..
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Cautiously optimistic. A big power jump at a very young age and while advancing a level (and then another) is fairly likely to stick.
12:19
Dan Szymborski: I think the big issue on how much I like Franco is if he sticks at 3B. There are a lot of conflicting reports.
12:19
Comment From Jake
I’m a big fan of the big man’s double S social program mack daddy, but those leg’s ain’t kicking nobody to the curb.
12:20
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, legislation plays no part. Now technically, if the legislation is thick enough, you could use a bound edition to beat the opponent, but foreign objects are only allowed as aids, not as weapons.
12:20
Dan Szymborski: FDR can roll around in his wheelchair, but he can’t break off a piece of it and stab Tyler in the neck.
12:20
Comment From Vic
What’s your take on the Orioles chance in the AL East?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: Improving, but an underdog.
12:20
Dan Szymborski: I still see Rays and Red Sox as clearly in a tier above the O’s.
12:21
Comment From Edge O
How could anyone vote for FDR? He had polio.
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Those that place more emphasis on peak rather than career may think he was solid enough pre-polio. Depends on the exact mix. A Koufax vs. Sutton question.
12:22
Comment From Eminor3rd
Most replayable game of alltime was Diablo II. What is the most replayable SINGLE PLAYER ONLY game ever?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Uh, Civilization.
12:22
Comment From Jose Luis
Thoughts on Dustin Ackley? Over/under for 10 WAR for the rest of his career?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Above.
12:22
Comment From Bryce
After doing my own personal projections, what is the best way to asses your auction value cap for each player?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: There’s no perfect way to go about it, some of it involves the structure of your team and the exact risks your’e willing to take.
12:23
Comment From Inflated GM
The league salary cap is $260 every year, so I’m trying to calculate inflation based on the keepers and available player pool versus the amount of money in play. Hope that makes sense!
12:23
Dan Szymborski: Like the previous question, that’s something that’s hard to give a simple answer to. Even if you knew the perfect way, the strategies of your opponents would vary as well.
12:24
Comment From Vic
Do you think Buxton will get 600 at bats in 2015 at the MLB level? How many for Correa?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I think Buxton is very likely to. Fewer for Correa – the Astros aren’t going to be super aggressive.
12:25
Comment From Dr. Claw
Cameron Maybin hit a HR in spring training giving up hope for that 20/40 season…..AND HE’S INJURED
12:25
Comment From Mrs. Jason Collette
got tanaka for 14$ in a mixer – thoughts?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Not a crazy price. I’d put him around Shields/Weaver/Minor, so if that’s the price those other guys got, that’s about where I’d put Tanaka
12:26
Comment From Jake
A while back on twitter you claimed ZiPS called ~35 wins for Cano over the life of the deal. You think that’s a fair estimate? What are the odds he destroys that number (40+ wins) versus the odds he disappoints (30- wins)?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Over 10 years, there’s a wide array of outcomes. In truth, I don’t have the exact WAR figure odds memorized. But neither are a long shot.
12:27
Comment From Cory
10 team keeper league – For this year only, keep Price or Andrus…
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Price
12:28
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
The WWE Network is amazing; how was Kevin Sullivan the top heel in WCW in the early 90s?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Wasn’t Sullivan one of the bookers at the time?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Oh god, I just remembered the whole Evad Sullivan thing. I hate you.
12:28
Comment From Gila Monster
Did you see BP’s work on pitch framing? It is fantastic… and free. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22934
12:29
Dan Szymborski: I saw it, it’s good work and they tackled some of the possible internal elements that could be correlated with each other.
12:30
Comment From AL-only GM
Not sure if you had time to take a peek at the results of this past weekend’s AL-only LABR auction, but if by chance you did, any values stick out for you?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: I have not had a chance.
12:30
Comment From Sean
Talk of Trumbo falling down the order has me worried. In a 10 team 5×5 with 10 keepers, should I consider V Mart or Corbin instead?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: Depends where you feel Trumbo is likely to go. In some ways, it may be an advantage if it hurts his ADP
12:31
Comment From Guest
Good Afternoon. Appreciate your thoughts on Austin Jackson. Is he a top 15 of in AL only leagues? Will Dirks and Davis platoon?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Mentally, I’d probably put him 12-15, among AL OF, fantasy wise
12:33
Comment From Eminor3rd
When you predict ERA, is it based solely on historical ERA curves or is it a DIPS-based formula? If the latter, do you/is there room for using batted ball data (LD/GB/FB/etc.) to make it better?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: It’s a hybrid. ZIPS uses batted ball data in conjunction with FIP, plus a very rough estimate of a team’s defense, and long-term pitcher performance relative these data (would make a difference if I was projecting, say, 38-year-old Tom Glavine, very small for someone like Hellickson)
12:34
Comment From Jose Luis
Which of LoMo or Justin Smoak is likelier to have a productive career?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: I’m not really banking on either. Possibly Smoak. But this is a broccoli vs. cauliflower Q.
12:35
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
If EY Jr is the leadoff hitter in NY, how many steals does he get?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: He’s definitely capable of 40-50 again. But you have to factor in there’s at least a hcance he’s lousy enough otherwise to lose his job
12:37
Comment From Mrs. Jason Collette
am i ok with Stras, Tanaka, Salazar, Samarj in the 12 team mixer
12:37
Dan Szymborski: Probably average.
12:38
Comment From Boston Phan
I saw some quotes from the Orioles management over the weekend about the Jimenez deal, which included the discussion of adding a fourth year allowing them to get a guy with a track record. The overall substance of the quotes made me question the decision making process. Do you think the media report does not match up to reality?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to tell what’s real and what’s a media report, but I’ll fully admit that I’m more very suspicious of the decision making processes of the O’s.
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Duquette speaking out about Cashman’s comments just buttress that notion.
12:41
Dan Szymborski: For those that missed it, Cashman was talking in the New York Post that he went into the offseason treating the Yankees as a 77-win (or was it 78?) team based on their runs scored and runs allowed, not an 85-win team. As an example, he brought up the Orioles in 2012/2013, the most prominent recent example of this phenomenon.
12:42
Dan Szymborski: The O’s, naturally, couldn’t let well enough alone, despite time demonstrating how foolish they were to go into the 2012-2013 offseason operating as if the O’s were a 93-win team going forward.
12:42
Comment From GSon
Better Poll: Hottest babe at the Oscars Poll Amy Adams, Charlize Theron or J-Law?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: I tend to find Amy Adams the hottest, but I did not and do not watch the OScars.
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Or any awards show. I waste a lot of my time on earth, but none to watching rich, famous people give other rich, famous people awards.
12:43
Dan Szymborski: It’s such indulgent drivel. The Masque of Red Death without the happy ending.
12:43
Comment From EC
Seems like it would make a lot of sense for the Yankees to trade for Danny Espinosa. As a Nats fan, not sure we’d get full value… but what would a trade for him look like (not just to Yankees, but to anyone)?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: His value is extremely limited at this point. It’s not a great situation in which to extract full value. The best chance will be a team that has something bad happen to their 2B during the year.
12:45
Comment From Johnny J
Do you think Carlos Martinez will crack the rotation this year? If he does, how good is he? in terms of fantasy?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: I still think that he’s most likely to end up in the bullpen this year, even after Jaime Garcia’s inevitable season-ending surgery.
12:46
Comment From Tom
Should the Reds try to resign Cueto or Latos long term? It seems like Latos will be more expensive and for more years, but Cueto has a very high peak value
12:46
Dan Szymborski: I like Latos better long-term and I think Cueto would have solid trade value. I’m guessing they keep at most 1 of the 2.
12:47
Comment From Johnny J
Marcus Stroman…What is his ETA and how good can they be upon arrival?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: I expect they’ll start him in the minors and ease him into the rotation. People keep wanting to make him intoa reliever quickly, but I think he’ll get an opportunity to prove otherwise. I think he can be a solid 2 at some point.
12:48
Comment From tanaka!
everyone is focused on my filthy splitter but my slider got more swings and misses in my first appearance. Which pitch do you think is filthier?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t see your first appearance! From Japanese clips, taht splitter *is* filthy though. We’ll see.
12:50
Comment From Johnny J
His first full year in the bigs: 8.36 k/9 (Moore: 8.88), 4.35 bb/9 (Moore: 4.11), 4.08 fip (Moore: 3.93)
His second year in the bigs: 9.74 k/9 (Moore: 8.56), 4.79 bb/9 (Moore: 4.55), 3.08 fip (Moore: 3.95)
His third full year in the bigs: 9.34 k/9, 3.57 bb/9, 3.12 fip.

The other player is Kershaw. Not saying Moore is the next Kershaw. But do you think it is a possibility Moore could follow a similar path and really break out this year?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: I think that’s a little misleading. Remember, Kershaw was younger than Moore, and had less than half his minor league innings. Kershaw’s less than a year older than Moore.
12:51
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Any idea why steamer is so down on Kershaw? (I know it’s not your model but he’s one of the guys w/ biggest differences in ZiPS vs. Steamer)
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Ha, your guess is as good as mine!
12:52
Dan Szymborski: “I know it’s not your model” is kind of hte answer to the question!
12:52
Comment From saskatunes
Favorite spring training sample to blow out of proportion? Mine is Neil Wagner’s 100% K rate
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Ha, I’m waiting to see. It hasn’t been long yet! Some crazy terrible spring training decisions.
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Are still coming.
12:52
Comment From Jake
Jeter makes it to June with consistent numbers, say, .330 OBP .380 SLG. Do the Yankees platoon him? His splits are enormous, and Anna bats L throws R. Assuming Anna meets expectations, does NY move Jeter to a platoon role?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: No.
12:54
Comment From Jake
For a typical RHB, over a full season, what does the mix of PA vs LHP/RHP look like as a starter vs. in a platoon?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: That annoying answer: Depends. Generally around 2/3 RHP, 1/3 LHP for most batters, but platoon isn’t really a binary pregnant/not pregnant thing. There are many degrees to a platoon
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Some platoons are mild, like taking giving your left-handed slugger his days off against the toughest lefties.
12:56
Dan Szymborski: While some are severe, like Earl Weaver absolutely refusing the let Benny Ayala face righties (something like 80% against lefty starters)
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Though it’s very hard to have a platoon that strict anymore.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Teams have shallower benches and in later innings, face off against more specialists.
12:58
Comment From Eminor3rd
What’s your favorite word?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Interrobang. It’s an awesome bit of punctuation and it sounds vaguely dirty.
12:58
Comment From RK
Do you watch mlb.tv on a PS3? If so, do you have difficulty advancing seasons every year? It usually takes 10 uninstall/reinstalls before it advances
12:59
Dan Szymborski: I don’t usually use the PS3 for it. I mostly have a laptop beaming to the 58 inch TV on my office wall.
12:59
Comment From Jays fan
Jose Bautista is off to a great start to spring. Do spring results carry over to the regular season at all?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: I really haven’t found much value in the actual performances.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Teams would be better off to mostly focus on mechanical issues or decisions based on that.
12:59
Comment From Jake
You think FDR’s late career decline on the base paths drives down his overall proj v. JTHP?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Heh
1:00
Comment From Kyle
Is it possible for Nelson Cruz to have a good enough season to get a qualifying offer, thus creating a high chance of turning a 2nd round pick from this year into a 1st round pick next year for the O’s? Is that how compensatory picks work?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it happens. I don’t think Cruz is going to be amazing, he’s still going to be a one-dimensional (but a good dimension) player that’s now another year older. And bitten by his failure to take the QO this year.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: I think if the O’s offer, he takes it unless he has a *crazy* year.l
1:01
Comment From Jake
What team would benefit the most, 2014 performance wise, from an extra $10 million?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: At this point, nobody really. Earlier in the offseason, the Pirates, I think.
1:02
Comment From Kyle
On the same note as my last question (Nelson Cruz), does Zips have anything in it to try to account for PED suspensions, or suspensions in general? Like it would make sense to expect a worse season from Cruz, no?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found any real value and I’ve been going over projections for everybody, majors and minors, caught for PEDs, both in the years before the suspension and the yeras after it.
1:03
Dan Szymborski: I can’t definitively say that there *is* no significant effect, but so far, I’ve failed to reject the null hypothesis that PED suspensions have no predictive value on future stats.
1:04
Comment From Daniel W
Does it there’s always talk about pitchers trying to find and maintain consistent mechanics/release points but then a guy like Bronson Arroyo is lauded for being able to cover every angle from sidearm to over the top?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Mainly the criticism is when players are unusuccessful doing it.
1:04
Dan Szymborski: To paraphrase an old, possibly apocryphal story (I think the teacher was Liszt, but I forget)
1:05
Dan Szymborski: The piano teacher berates a young player learning for their bad habits. Player points out that the teacher does it. Teacher respond that “when you’re me, you can do that.”
1:05
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
FDR was your classic gamer. He left everything on the field then died. Tyler never won an election, and could even beat any of the crap that was between Jackson and Lincoln.
1:05
Comment From Northsider
Lousy Smarch weather!
1:06
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s time we bring in Smarch (though we should not touch Willy)
1:07
Dan Szymborski: There’s snow outside and it’s going to be -2 toingiht. It’s not February, but it ain’t March.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Though on a plus side, getting 4 inches instead of the forecast 8-10 is the first positive suprrise this winter.
1:07
Comment From toot toot
why do all the young pitchers for the padres blow out their elbows? is something going on there?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Hard to tell. It’s not like young pitchers have a track record of not blowing out their elbows.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: But padres have definitely been bitten there, for whatever reason.
1:08
Comment From JT
Now that Maybin is hurt, do you expect ADPs on guys like Denorfia and Venable to move higher?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Has the MRI come back yet?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Honeslty, even if he’s gone, I don’t think many leagues are deep enough (maybe an NL only) to really change the value of Denorfia or Venable significantly
1:09
Comment From Guest
AL only points league. Is Austin Jackson an elite OF He take $32 of a $300 cap.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: That’s really high for me, even in AL only.
1:09
Comment From Vic
Do you think Polanco will be called up by 6/1? How about Kris Bryant?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Polanco yes, Bryant no.
1:09
Comment From greenfrog
Would Marcus Stroman (or Drew Hutchison) be too much for Nick Franklin, or would that be more or less a fair return? And should the Jays make that trade?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think ti’s an unreasonable trade, but I actually dont’ think either team would do it.
1:10
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
First, yeah Sullivan was the booker. But who would believe that a fat 5’9″ 45 year old man could beat Sting. And second, you’re “elwcome”
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Sullivan had the Avalanche and the Butcher too!
1:11
Comment From Guest
Will Almonte be the M’s leadoff hitter?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: That’s a little premature. I think he’s a 4th outfielder.
1:12
Dan Szymborski: A few more and then time to go. This is the opportunity for random questions, too.
1:12
Comment From Jack Z
How much longer do I have a job?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: I think a year. The M’s have a high chance of being disappointing this season and I think he gets the axe for it.
1:13
Comment From JT
The last time the Jays had such a depressing opening day starter as Goins, a terrible retread RF from Pittsburgh turned in JOSE BAUTISTA EATER OF PLANETS AND DESTROYER OF WORLDS. Come and join me on the Ryan Goins bandwagon: we have Timbits and maple creams.
1:13
Comment From Hobbs
Do you think there’s some chance that Ackley is following the same story arc carved out by Alex Gordon? Or, is Ackley a valid sleeper?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: It’s very possible. I’d like to see Ackley get out of Seattle to be a real sleeper though.
1:13
Comment From tanaka!
who is Yangervis Solarte?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: Journeyman utility guy. Or possibly the protagonist in a terrible book about minor league free agents in which this question repeats over and over again
1:14
Comment From Perry
Burch Smith the first called up from AAA for starts in SD?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: He’d be my preferred option
1:14
Comment From tanaka!
thoughts on Dean Anna? SS of the future for the yanks?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Not sure I’d go that far. I think he’s mostly likely a solid 2B for a few years and probably a really, really good 5th infielder otherwise
1:15
Comment From beau
Best beer you’ve had lately
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Goose Island bourbon county barleywine
1:16
Comment From Bo
Is there a metric in ZiPS for “riskiness” of a projection? I presume the ZiPS projections are the mean, but do you have the variance published? Would it differ by player?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: I usually post the various quintile odds (I do keep track of whether the 1st-99th percentile projections happen the proper % of the time and so far, I’m pretty happy there)
1:16
Comment From Stephen Drew
Why does no want to sign me?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: First rounder. The truth of the matter is that the new team doens’t pay FA compensation, the player does, and it will be reflected in offers.
1:17
Comment From beau
Doesn’t John Tyler have a grandson that’s still alive?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: 2 I believe, which is ridiculous.
1:17
Comment From GSon
Why does your chat title say it’s authored by Dave Cameron?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: The post announcing the chat is authored by Dave Cameron.
1:17
Comment From beau
How do you pronounce your last name?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: zim-BORE-skee. Which is actually wrong.
1:18
Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard how it should be pronounced by an actual Polish speaker ( afew years ago)
1:18
Dan Szymborski: Let’s just say that I will *not* be pronouncing it this way. I work in media and there’s no way beofre every radio appearance, I’m going to have the producer relay to the host that the first syllable is this weird schzj sound.
1:19
Comment From ncb
wa wondering how ZIPS deals with differences in platoon playing times. Is a projection for someone like Freiman pretty much assumed to be all against lefties?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS assumes historical usage. I do post the platoon split projections on the spreadsheet (you can see ‘em for last year too), so if someone wants to reconfigure, they can.
1:19
Comment From Ian
I’m snowed in. In Virginia. On spring break. Please discuss.
1:19
Dan Szymborski: ITS NOT EVEN LEGALLY SPRING
1:20
Dan Szymborski: When I was in grade school, we didn’t have spring break, we got a week off in February for Energy Conservation Week.
1:20
Dan Szymborski: And you know what sucked? When it snowed during those days. It’s like being sick on your vacation.
1:20
Comment From Ian
Wait! Backtrack, please. Can you explain your preference for Bruce over Stanton in 5×5? Thank you, kindly.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: I love Stanton in real life. But Bruce gets a park benefit (I’ve never played in a fantasy league that used park-neutral stats, except sim leagues which are a different matter) and a solid RBI benefit that Stanton doesn’t.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: And it’s fair to ding Stanton a bit for his injury risk lately.
1:21
Comment From Vin
So all the word from the Blue Jays continues to be that Ryan Goins is the guy at second base. This is getting scary. Do something Szymborski!
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Like that Star Trek Next Generation episode with that omnipotent dude played by MacGyver’s grandfather (but not a Q), I’m not allowed to interfere with Blue Jays decisions.
1:22
Comment From beau
I ran a projection last night for the Nationals and came up with 97 wins, am I crazy?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: On the high side.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: and on that note, it’s time to log off for another week.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find me at ESPN mainly, my chats and projections here at FanGraphs, DSzymborski on Twitter, and wherever there is a churrascaria within driving distnace.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: And here’s the bracket for the Electoral Brawllege.
1:25
:
1:26
Dan Szymborski: The winner of round 1: John Tyler, 52-48% defeats Franklin D. Roosevelt (KO, rear naked choke)
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Well, fight 1.
1:27
Comment From Pork Sale
Could you elaborate on the spilled French fry picture?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: I spilled french fries. I was sad.



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Dave is a co-founder of USSMariner.com and contributes to the Wall Street Journal.


12 Responses to “Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/3/14”

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  1. jose luis says:

    Thoughts on Dustin Ackley? Over/under on 10 WAR over the rest of his career?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. harry mamis says:

    Any thoughts on Bobby Abreu, who was the darling this winter of the Caribbean Winter Leagues.? Is he going to be worth a 1.00 flyer in a rotisserie draft.?

    harry

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. scrounger says:

    Salazar $1, Moore$5, m.Adams $1, D.brown $12 trade for a $17 Trout??

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Travis L says:

      I’d take the trout side in a second. If I had trout, I probably wouldn’t really consider the other side of the deal for more than a second.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Fantasyguru2014 says:

    Trade question.. Taijuan walker for brad miller and kyle Zimmer? Then I’d flip Zimmer and Arcia for Brett Gardner, yan Gomes, and King Felix (last year of contract).

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Jimmer says:

    I wonder how many more times that exact same stat propelled Moore/Kershaw question is going to be asked in these chats?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • LaLoosh says:

      the question selection process could stand to be improved some, eh?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Lahey says:

      Haha it’s like Johnny J doesn’t realize how much every single other fangraphs reader hates him.

      Would be nice if CiL could permaban him, maybe a hellban by IP/username or some sort of cookie.

      For all the FG chat hosts, please don’t answer another question of his ever again. Thank you!

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Park Chan ho's Beard says:

        I dunno, I feel like they’ve done a good job of not answering questions that are spammed in the question queue, so I assume Jonny J (or BobbyWestside or whatever) chilled out and just asked his three questions once. They’re not terrible questions, it was just obnoxious seeing them everywhere. But yeah, I was thinking about how CiL could improve too, with like IP banning, or time limits between questions or something.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Jay says:

    Montero or Mejia of the Mets…Who is more likely to have value this season in fantasy (and real baseball)?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. ncb says:

    You mentioned ZIPS platoon lines, but I can’t find them anywhere. Anyone know where to access these? I think it would be fun to see what Matt Joyce would do against just lefties.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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