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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/22/13

Posted By Dave Cameron On April 22, 2013 @ 11:30 am In Chat,Featured | 1 Comment

Transcript after the jump.

12:02
Dan Szymborski: And we are live!

12:02
Comment From Jordan
What up Szym

12:02
Dan Szymborski: The troposphere.

12:02
Dan Szymborski: It’s most of the atmosphere’s mass!

12:02
Comment From Mike
Which pitcher is the best waiver pick up for the ROS?

12:02
Comment From Andrew
Heyward will get it together, right? RIGHT???

12:02
Dan Szymborski: WHo’s available?

12:03
Dan Szymborski: Yes.

12:03
Comment From AJT
Almost as late as Sullivan.

12:03
Comment From Tim
If a shortstop with a lot of range fields a ball that would normally be a third baseman’s ball, would the third baseman’s UZR lower?

12:05
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I forget if that was taken care of in a later revision.

12:05
Dan Szymborski: I know that he was using shift data starting a few years ago.

12:06
Dan Szymborski: It’s probability based, so it’s not a huge issue generally.

12:06
Comment From Matt
Thoughts on Rendon of the Nats? Who do you like more, Rendon or Arenado?

12:07
Dan Szymborski: I *like* rendon better, but if there’s a multiverse, Rendon’s injury history likely means that Arenados have more actual careers.

12:07
Comment From Mike
Is Gio Gonzalez un-roided this season? FB velocity down and HR/FB up?

12:07
Dan Szymborski: Too soon to be too worried yet unless performances are notably amazing or horrific.

12:07
Comment From Erik
Hey Dan, who would you rather have in your 2 UTIL spots for the rest of the year: Span, Rutledge, Markakis, Ev. Cabrara

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Probably the first two. I think Rutledge’s stats will be fine

12:08
Comment From MightsMets
When does Marcum return, and are what can we expect from him?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: God knwos with Marcum’s nasty surprises. I do expect him to be good if he gets onto the field

12:08
Comment From Mike D
DAN! You are far and away the 2nd best chatter with a 3-letter first name on this site. Take a bow! What do you think about Oswaldo Arcia, he gonna at least stick around for a few weeks until Mastro-inny come back?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Wait, so I have to murder Eno?

12:09
Dan Szymborski: I get paid by Disney, so I assume that ther’es a department in charge of extrajudicial murders or something.

12:09
Comment From Jimmy Cracked
didn’t mean to hit return and send that yet – Villanueva, Corbin, Quintana, Detwiler

12:09
Dan Szymborski: I’m a Detwiler fan

12:09
Comment From Jordan
If it’s so massive, why has gravity not brought it crashing down on us?

12:10
Dan Szymborski: It has. You’re dead. And you’re spending eternity listening to me chat as punishment for your sins.

12:10
Comment From this guy
Is it possible Adam Dunn isn’t good anymore and what we saw last season was an anomaly?

12:10
Dan Szymborski: Possible, yes, but I expect more of last season.

12:10
Comment From John
Whats the deal with Didi?

12:10
Dan Szymborski: I actually like Gregorius more than most. Unlike some prospects, his recent minor league BABIPs were unsustainly *low*

12:11
Dan Szymborski: Gregorius’s BABIP more reflected a player that runs like Chunk with his achilles tendons cut.

12:11
Comment From Guest
Que’ el fucko Zymborksi? Did the pizza guy run into traffic today?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: No pizza today!

12:11
Comment From blob
I was looking at Lou Brock’s player page and was surprised at just how average his career was. Has there been a HOF pick less worthy than him?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: Rick Ferrell.

12:12
Dan Szymborski: There are actually lots worse than Brock.

12:12
Dan Szymborski: Thanks to Frankie Frisch’s determination to get every person he ever met into the Hall of Fame.

12:12
Comment From Matt
How excited should we be about Iwakuma? He’s stymied some pretty potent offenses so far – what do you think his true talent level is?

12:13
Dan Szymborski: I still think mid-upper 3s is more likely.

12:13
Comment From Eno Sarris
“Harvey’s better! Harvey’s better!”

12:13
Comment From Chris
dynasty trade advice; offered moustakas and bogaerts for profar. thoughts?

12:13
Dan Szymborski: Pretty clsoe to even

12:14
Comment From balticwolf
Hellickson: where did all of the Ks come from? I read somewhere last yr. that one of vets had taught him a new pitch. Do you know what it is?

12:15
Dan Szymborski: Are you sure you mean Hellickson?

12:15
Dan Szymborski: I don’t remember him learning a new pitch this winter. Maybe I forgot?

12:16
Dan Szymborski: Though his game against the Red Sox was awesome

12:16
Comment From MightsMets
Is Hosmer gonna hit a HR this year? Or is a delegated to just being a line drive hitter?

12:16
Dan Szymborski: I sure as hell hopes he hits a homer since I’m always talking optimism with him

12:16
Comment From Dan
How much better would Wrestlemania 29′s card have been with a C Rhodes v. Goldust match? Goldust, top 5 gimmick/underrated wrestler?

12:17
Dan Szymborski: I liked him best in earlier stints in WWE, where they really had a high concept going

12:17
Comment From John Stamos
Is Cashner going to continue to get opportunities to start now?

12:18
Dan Szymborski: ack

12:18
Dan Szymborski: sorry, cil crashed on me on the laptop for some reason

12:18
Dan Szymborski: And now Flash is threatening my family or something

12:19
Dan Szymborski: In the short-term, yes, he has the opportunity. He replaced Richard, but Ross’s injury gives him more of an openin

12:19
Comment From AJT
‘Ello Dan. So here’s a question: what is the dumbest baseball conversation you have had? I had a conversation yesterday with a Reds’ fan who insisted that if Stanton were on the Reds, he would not help the team because his defense was not amazing or something. He had a bad series defensively, and he hasn’t been off to the greatest start(who can blame him), but we all know he’s a great player.

12:19
Dan Szymborski: Dumbest baseball conversaition was in the White Sox newsgroup on usenet.

12:20
Dan Szymborski: About 12 years ago maybe?

12:20
Dan Szymborski: We were arguing with this guy who insisted that Mookie Wilson should be in teh Hall of Fame

12:21
Dan Szymborski: What made it worse was that the guy wasn’t a huge Hall of Fame guy or anything – he was also arguing that Dave Winfield *shouldn’t* be in the Hall

12:22
Comment From Raymond
Stanton’s struggles: Is this just a slow start or do you think some of it can be attributed to his being surrounded by a crappy lineup and thus getting little to hit?

12:22
Dan Szymborski: Slow start. Marlins lineup sucked last year too and he was followed by a lot of lousiness.

12:23
Comment From Joel
Who are other pitchers like Tony Cingrani who rely on deception to get people out?

12:24
Dan Szymborski: The most ever was Doug Jones, I think. There was no reason for Doug Jones to ever get anybody out. But he totally did.

12:24
Comment From John
With Zimmerman expected to miss the minimum, is there any chance rendon stays up?

12:24
Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:24
Comment From Dicky
Give up on Rickie Weeks? 30 years old, hitting .225 over his last 750 PAs, how much more time do I give him?

12:24
Dan Szymborski: I woudln’t give up on him, but he’s probably going to be a low BA player for now and for ever

12:24
Comment From Teller
If you had to project over the next 3-5 years, and assuming good health for all, how would you rank Matt Harvey, Matt Moore and Darvish?

12:24
Dan Szymborski: Darvish, Harvey, Moore, but I love all 3

12:24
Comment From Zach
How is the water system of your house????

12:24
Dan Szymborski: Great, I got a new water heater on Tuesday!

12:25
Dan Szymborski: The old one was leaking a few gallons an hour, I discovered

12:26
Dan Szymborski: BUt I didn’t turn it off, I used a half-cut empty milk gallon, punched hole, and fed it into a matchbox car track that directed any additional links right to the drain

12:26
Dan Szymborski: Which worked well, but I was much happier with the new one.

12:26
Comment From John Stamos
More likely to turn it around: Brandon Belt or Dustin Ackley

12:26
Dan Szymborski: Both will.

12:26
Comment From Dan
Should Stanton be playing or on DL? Is it worth worrying about or is it like last year when he started slow and battled injuries?

12:26
Dan Szymborski: Don’t worry.

12:26
Comment From Rick
What can the Indians do about Ubaldo?

12:26
Dan Szymborski: Ever see Old Yeller?

12:26
Comment From Archer
Dexter Fowler for Mike Minor (5×5 OBP instead of AVG) even value?

12:27
Dan Szymborski: I might be more inclined to stick with Fowler here, simply because Coors will protect him even in a slump (and his kinda bleh defense doesn’t hurt you)

12:27
Comment From John
When will the pads give erlin a chance?

12:27
Dan Szymborski: I’m a big Erlin fan, they should. What’s frustrating about the Padres is I feel all their most interesting rotation options are injured or not picked to be in Padre rotation

12:27
Comment From saskatunes
Give Axelrod a spin today? I am trying to decide between him and Locke in the LT.

12:27
Dan Szymborski: Why not?

12:28
Comment From sea salt
will rajai continue to get in the Tor lineup if joey bats returns to the OF?

12:28
Dan Szymborski: They haven’t thrown out the Bautista to 3B Part III experiment, have they?

12:28
Comment From David
When PitchFx data has Verlander’s inning 1-3 89mph FB tracked as a changeup, why even bother using them? Shouldn’t you just use the superior Info Solutions??

12:29
Dan Szymborski: The providers always have problems early on in a season, especially when a player’s velocity has changed from historical norms

12:29
Dan Szymborski: They use algorithms, remember.

12:29
Comment From Tony C
Considering Cingrani’s dirty minor league stats, why was he not on more people’s radars? What kind if ceiling does he have?

12:30
Dan Szymborski: People were a little down on his secondary stuff. I like him just fine and ZiPS has as well.

12:30
Comment From AJT
How does it feel to be the silver medal?

12:31
Dan Szymborski: Not to good. The spot price for silver is pretty low. If I can’t have gold or platinum, couldn’t i get a palladium medal or something?

12:31
Comment From Billy Bob
Will Matt Harvey have better numbers at the end of the season than Strasburg? Is Harvey going to be top 12?

12:31
Dan Szymborski: Harvey’s looked quite awesome. I’d still put my money on Strasburg though

12:31
Comment From Thomas
WRT ENO… Or you could just improve your ratio of beer to baseball chat

12:32
Dan Szymborski: Did Eno ever give out prizes in a chat contest? No?

12:32
Comment From Jordan
You don’t have to murder Eno. You are all special in your own way.

12:32
Comment From Jordan
Yay physics!

12:32
Comment From Andrew
I assume the answer to this is ‘nothing,’ but what do you make of Stanton’s slow start? Striking out a lot :(

12:32
Dan Szymborski: Nothing.

12:32
Comment From mr anonymous
How many IP does zips need to see before it will give a projection on someone like Jose Fernandez?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: I did give out a projection for Fernandez, but it was after opening day, well after Fernandez was upl.

12:33
Comment From this guy
did you see GoT last night? oh my god.

12:33
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t watched it yet, but no spoilers. Not for me (I’ve read all 5 of the books a few times) but there are others!

12:34
Dan Szymborski: Oh, and if any of you know george rr martin, can you tell him THE DUNK AND EGG STORIES ARE ALL WELL AND GOOD BUT FINISH THE DAMN MAIN SERIES FIRST BEFORE YOU START ALL THE GAIDEN STUFF AND IF YOU CANT WRITE MORE THAN 100 WORDS A DAY, PLEASE STOP EATING DEEP FRIED BACON BALLS

12:34
Comment From Jon KK
Dan (because all Szymborskis are obviously related and/or know each other…) are you related to my childhood friend growing up in Lombard, Ill., Alan Szymborski? Your father, uncle, third-cousin-once-removed?…. Because we were friends, I can spell and say your last name.

12:34
Dan Szymborski: I probably am, but I’m not sure how.

12:35
Dan Szymborski: I’m not very close with the Szymborski clan. My dad died young (48, 1997) and we were never very tight with that side of the family.

12:36
Dan Szymborski: I know my mother’s family much better, especially the gaggle of Germans

12:36
Comment From Dan
As an O’s fan, what’s your take on McFarland? Think he can be a .5-1WAR type groundballing reliever despite the velo?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: I remain unconvinced. There’s slow and there’s *slow*

12:37
Comment From David
How does Boston not keep Webster up for good? Acevas is awful.

12:37
Comment From Mike
Tell Jordan to actually go to class instead of doing this chat

12:37
Comment From Jackson
Who are some pitchers that could enter a rotation before the all-star break and potentially dominate? I have an eye on Straily, Smyly, Cashner and Chris Archer. Anyone else?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: You just hit on some of the big ones. Bundy won’t be up that quick

12:37
Comment From Andrew
Will Gyorko hit (well) this year?

12:38
Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:38

12:38
Comment From Archer
What tier of OF would you put Duda in, in an OBP instead of AVG league?

12:38
Dan Szymborski: Despite the hot start, I wouldn’t get too excited yet.

12:39
Dan Szymborski: At least you don’t have to have his defense

12:39
Comment From David
Beltran is a slam-dunk HOFer to me with modern statistics – do you think the voters will agree?

12:39
Dan Szymborski: No. Which is sad.

12:39
Dan Szymborski: Individual voters can be (and are) very good. But the mass itself is just terrible.

12:39
Comment From Matt
MVP out of the gate is Andrelton, right Braves fans?

12:39
Dan Szymborski: Meany.

12:39
Comment From Maxamuz
AL East Updated Projected EOS Standings?

12:40
Dan Szymborski: Haven’t run them yet.

12:40
Comment From Chris
What can we expect from Rutledge ROS…Is Is he gonna put up Espinosa type numbers??

12:40
Dan Szymborski: I think his overall stats will be fine. Ordinary player, but terrific park.

12:40
Comment From Nash
Roy Halladay has two quality starts after his awful start to the season. How encouraged should we be about him over the next few months?

12:40
Dan Szymborski: Cuatiously optimistic, but the Phils aren’t going anywhere.

12:40
Comment From person
I’m in a league where DeAza and Span are available as FAs. That means there’s really no reason to carry Gardner as my 3rd CF is there?

12:41
Dan Szymborski: If he’s not stealing, he doesn’t really have that much fantasy value. Gardner’s a better player in real life.

12:41
Comment From David
Any chance Adam Morgan takes over the Phillies #5 job by the All-Star break?

12:41
Dan Szymborski: The Phils should consider it, but I think they’ll be conservative

12:41
Comment From Steven
Anyword on Lawrie playing second?? It was discussed a while back, but it hasn’t happened yet…..

12:43
Dan Szymborski: Haven’t needed to force the issue yet. THe Jays should be willing to experiment. Lawrie didn’t hav ea good reputation defensively at 2nd, but he also ended up a better 3B than expected

12:43
Dan Szymborski: Fortune favors the bold.

12:43
Dan Szymborski: He did get a few games at Dunedin at second.

12:43
Comment From Crusty
Trying to look at pitching statistics at a more granular level to pick up fantasy player bargains/sleepers. Is looking at higher than avg SwStr% with lower than avg k-rates, a good way to spot undervalued guys who might improve? I already use LOB/BABIP/HR-rate to adjust my views on pitchers.

12:44
Dan Szymborski: It’s a mistake to get ultra-specific – the reason we think of things more in tiers is that it better reflects the errors and volatility inherent in these statistics

12:44
Comment From Rated Rookie
Did Cashner do enough to stick in the rotation? Or does Tyson Ross bump him back to the bullpen when he returns?

12:44
Dan Szymborski: Depends how well he pitches while Ross is out.

12:44
Comment From Andrew
Is Patrick Corbin any good?

12:45
Dan Szymborski: Yes.

12:45
Comment From David
Trevor Bauer is throwing a lot more sliders and forkballs with less curves and fastballs in AAA – can he iron out his control?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: I’ve seen way more hopeless cases. Bauer’s had some obvious issues in the majors, but it’s not like one of those guys that walks 6 or 7 in the minors and you hope for a light to turn on

12:46
Comment From Andrew
Watched Hellickson against Oakland, all he throws in his change and curve.

12:46
Comment From person
Would you trust Detwiler THIS week, v STL and CIN? How about Burnett @PHI and @STL?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: I like Detwiler, though it’ s atougher matchup.

12:47
Dan Szymborski: Burnett’s probably a go, but it depends on your league level of play

12:47
Comment From Tom
I have a MI problem. I have R Weeks, Espinosa, and Rutledge to man 2b & SS. Seguara just hit the waivers, who do I drop for him?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Probably Espinosa or if you have less faith in Weeks, Weeks.

12:48
Comment From David
Sabathia and Halladay figure to end up with 250ish wins each – is that the new 300? I can’t see anyone getting there, even Verlander or Kershaw…

12:49
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t count Sabathia out for 300

12:49
Comment From Ryan
When are the O’s going to get off their butts and extend Matty Wieters Dan? comon! It’s not like the O’s have catching depth in the minors.

12:49
Dan Szymborski: THey’ve actually been talking with him, just nothing’s happened yet

12:49
Comment From jeff
opinions of gyorko seemed to be pretty split before the season started. which camp were you in? do you think his current struggles are just growing pains that trout/harper have made us forget exist?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: Just a bad start. Trout/Harper *is* getting people a litlte spoiled

12:50
Comment From Eminor3rd
Liberty Launcher, Black box, or vanilla? I’m addicted to LL, but I really feel like I’d benefit from the 4th rocket.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: You would. In most cases, vanilla. Liberty launcher if you’re up against a good pyro. Black Box if the other team’s defense is problematic and you want to pair it with buff banner.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: (These are TF2 questions for the confused)

12:51
Comment From RSquared
Are contact hitters the new inefficiency?K rates are absurd.

12:51
Comment From David
How the the Nats 3B & iB situation end up next year with Rendon, Zimmerman and LaRoche??? Who gets traded?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: LaRoche will go first, most likely

12:51
Comment From darenw
Over/under 15 K’s for Felix Hernandez tonight against the Astros?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Heh.

12:52
Comment From The Oriole Bird
Does ZiPS update minor leaguers’ MLB equivalencies daily?

12:52
Dan Szymborski: No, FG does not have an zMLE mechanism built in. Player with extnesive minor league play can only have RoS from me.

12:52
Comment From Mooser
If you could change you ZIPs projection for the Jays now , would you?

12:53
Dan Szymborski: No, I believe you have to approach with the mindset of usin gthe best information you had at the time.

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Math demands a high likelihood that a lot of things will be very wrong.

12:53
Dan Szymborski: When it comes to teams, the hypergeometric distribution leaves no survivors.

12:53
Comment From David
Will WAR boost HOF candidates like Carlos Beltran or will he get punished for not reaching magical round numbers like Larry Walker?

12:54
Dan Szymborski: He’ll get a boost among the small subset that use modern analysis, but not against the great mass that go into erotic Jack Morris comas whenever they see his mustache.

12:54
Comment From Ian
Regarding all the “pitching to the score” hullabaloo, isn’t Verlander known for throwing harder later in games and in important situations? And doesn’t that constitute pitching to the score regardless of outcomes being similar?

12:54
Dan Szymborski: If it doesn’t change the outcome, from an analysis standpoint, it’s generally irrelevant.

12:55
Dan Szymborski: If Samardzija motivate himself to get strikeouts by imagining the batter at the plate is going to stalk and murder his family, I only really care, from an evaluation standpoint, if its actually successful.

12:55

12:55
Comment From Eddie Vedder
I once named a band after Mookie Wilson.

12:56
Dan Szymborski: Did the band agree? YOu shouldn’t just go around naming bands.

12:57
Dan Szymborski: My reserved band names, for any future band that I will not be starting, are The Cheesburger Bourgeoisie and Pop Culture Reference.

12:57
Comment From Guest
what about the Harold Bains v. Brian Kenny argument about pitcher wins from Friday

12:57
Dan Szymborski: Reynolds!

12:57
Dan Szymborski: Kenny = Patient man

12:57
Comment From John
I need a waiver wire fill-in for Hill and the pickings are slim. Valdespin, Getz, Ellis? Someone else I should give a thought to?

12:57
Dan Szymborski: ouch

12:58
Dan Szymborski: Probably have to go with Spin

12:58
Comment From Keith, Manchester, CT
Thanks Dan, G. Stanton’s poor numbers — small season sample or injury?

12:58
Dan Szymborski: Possibly combination. Too early to woryr.

12:58
Comment From Eminor3rd
I looked up Mookie Wilson’s stats just to see if there was even straw to be grasped. There isn’t — the guy must have been messing with you.

12:58
Dan Szymborski: No, this guy had a history of being really, really dumb.

12:59
Dan Szymborski: I’ve been in fun flame wars. Like the guy who insisted Brady Anderson was a shoo-in hall of famer

12:59
Dan Szymborski: He made another account so that he would have someone else support his argument.

1:00
Dan Szymborski: After which, I did forensic analysis of both of their posts, to demonstrate how they wer ethe same dude.

1:00
Comment From Thomas
Can the Marlins start saying Stanton doesnt care about baseball yet, so they can trade him for someone grittier on the Braves?

1:00
Dan Szymborski: No, because he’s going to the O’s. I already called dibs.

1:00
Comment From Rick
What type of move should the Indians make to address long-term pitching? (Trade prospects, trade Asdrubal, etc.)

1:00
Dan Szymborski: Long-term pitching will have to be developed from within

1:00
Comment From Rags
In an NL-only where you can’t bench players, can you rank Marquis, Garland, Slowey, Burgos, Sanabia and Pettibone? Yes, my league is deep.

1:01
Dan Szymborski: That’s a lot of ranking to do in a quick chat! I’d be most comfortable with Garland since he seems healthy. But yikes.

1:01
Comment From Tom
Which one has the most value ROS? Lucroy or Gattis….

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Probably Filthy Lucroy. Assuming McCann comes back at some point and didn’t just retire and the Braves are covering it up, the Braves haven’t yet proven they can find the playing time.

1:02
Comment From Anti-Pope John XXII
Do you think the Orioles will promote Nick Delmonico aggressively if he continues to mash?

1:03
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he should be in AA soon if he keeps hitting

1:03
Comment From Crusty
Chris Davis walked 9.5% in Sept 2012, and now 13.5% this month in a career where he never walked more than 7.9% in a month where he was playing full time, previously. Where do you think his bb-rate normalizes to?

1:03
Dan Szymborski: Honestly? Not sure.

1:03
Comment From Richie
How would a rangy shortstop lower a 3rd baseman’s supposed range? The 3rd baseman’s the guy in front. He may take balls a shortstop could get to, but any ball a shortstop fields is automatically by the 3rd baseman. What, maybe he filches a popup down the line once a month?

1:03
Dan Szymborski: It’s probably not a big deal for these reasons

1:04
Dan Szymborski: It’s more of an issue in the OF, but it’s overrated

1:04
Comment From Tom
Time to start worrying about Billy Butler?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: No

1:04
Comment From jeff
Does Gio Gonzalez’s last few starts concern you at all?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: Not really.

1:04
Comment From Brad
Belt or Dom Brown this year and beyond?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: Probably belt.

1:04

1:04
Comment From Trotter
Saw Ryan Howard get a few rips last night. Is he going to turn it around and see the power return?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: Howard’s a meh player at this point.

1:05
Comment From AFan
Nats fans should start to worry, true or false?

1:05
Dan Szymborski: True. They’ll turn around, but the odds they have to get one of the wild card playin spots have increased.

1:06
Dan Szymborski: There’s no God of Probability that’s going to make the Nats have an extra good stretch and an extra bad stretch – if you thought the Nats were 3 games better going into the season, Nats vs. Braves is a coin flip now

1:06
Comment From Mike
Webster looked really promising. What’s your thought?

1:07
Dan Szymborski: He did, but remember it was jus tKC, which isn’t winning because of offense this year. Luckily the team has motivation to get Webster staying in majors as osund as possible

1:07
Comment From Oliver
Thoughts on Aaron Hicks? Boy can he take a walk, but he doesn’t seem to be able to do anything right. Although his recent PAs have looked better.

1:08
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, a rather lousy start, but I think he’ll be OK

1:08

1:08
Comment From Jim Bob Duggar
“They use algorithms, remember” sounds like it should be a bumper sticker.

1:08
Comment From this guy
Any idea what the pitch FX data differs on fangraphs + brooksbaseball? Which one should I trust?

1:08
Dan Szymborski: Try to use as many sources as possible. The main difference is how pitchers are classified.

1:09
Dan Szymborski: The raw data downloaded every day from MLB is the same input

1:09
Comment From Three Fingers Stump
How much longer does the Bob Davidson show go on before MLB does something to curtail his “I’m the most important person on the field” routine?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: Bring on the robots!

1:10
Comment From Izzy
ZIPS and Steamer see Matt Harvey as being a little better than league average for the rest of the season (3.70 and 3.76 ERAs). Do you think that he’s being underrated, perhaps because of his minor league stats? What ERA would you give him for the RoS?

1:11
Dan Szymborski: I’m a little more optimistic, but I may be wrong. Projection systems are conservative with players with shorter resumes becuase that’s the way to bet

1:11
Comment From Jordan
On the player pages, why is the Contact% different for Plate Discipline and PITCHf/x Plate Discipline??

1:12
Dan Szymborski: in this case, pitch f/x uses raw data while BIS has people modify classification

1:12
Comment From Mike D
To be the best, just convince Eno to follow his heart and open up a brew pub. Or just find a way to offer free samples!

1:12
Comment From Redd
Will Puig get a chance this year?

1:13
Dan Szymborski: He’s going to mak ean appearance in the majors at least

1:13
Comment From Rags
Please help, Tyson Ross is injured and he wasn’t even the worst pitcher on my team. ;_; Slowey, Burgos, Marquis, Garland in that order?

1:13
Dan Szymborski: I actually like Garland, but I’m in the minority there

1:14
Comment From person
Which side of Carpenter for Minor would you want?

1:14
Dan Szymborski: Minor

1:14
Comment From darenw
Thanks for these chats! Can I get a plug for my baseball site I’m developing… http://baseballsavant.com

1:14
Comment From Travis
How many shortstops do you think can make this play? http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=26463823&topic_id=&c_id=atl&tcid=vpp_copy_26463823&v=3

1:15
Dan Szymborski: It was, but he’s gotta be more careful – Upton could have caught it and if communication had been off, there could’ve been nsaty collision

1:15
Comment From Jordan
Tell Mike to actually go to work instead of doing this chat

1:15
Dan Szymborski: One second, switching computers.

1:16
Dan Szymborski: And we are back.

1:16
Dan Szymborski: Well, me.

1:17
Comment From Jasper
Think Kipnis ends up as the top 5 2nd baseman he was supposed to be this year?

1:17
Dan Szymborski: No, I don’t think that was realistic, he’s a solid, above-average guy, but not elite.

1:17
Comment From TKDC
Mets fans are actually talking about Harvey being better than Strasburg, but you continue to post the dreadfully tired Simmons garbage, which is based on 99% nothing.

1:18
Comment From Aidan
Moustakas. Talk me off the ledge.

1:18
Dan Szymborski: It’s been 3 weeks.

1:18
Comment From Jasper
Is Lester back to form?

1:18
Dan Szymborski: Assuming you mean the awesome form, not the 2012 form or the form of, say, Christopher Walken in that country bears movie, then yes.

1:18
Comment From Pertinent
How do the Cardinals and Rangers not swap top prospects? It just makes too much sense. That being said, I know it won’t happen.

1:19
Dan Szymborski: GMs have jobs at stake, so those high-risk gambles are generally shied away from, especially in the form of a challenge trade

1:19
Comment From Matt
Less sustainable production Brandon Crawford or Coco Crisp?

1:20
Dan Szymborski: Well, they’re both pretty unsustainable. Coco being slightly less unsustainable is like saying getting guillotined is preferable to being boiled alive.

1:20
Comment From Guy LeDouche
Don’t listen to ‘em Dan. Eno strokes their egos with his “lude” sessions.

1:20
Comment From Izzy
I feel like Beltran will get in. A lot of it could be his playoff performance, which traditionalists love. I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t make it. Plenty of players don’t hit their milestones and still make it.

1:21
Dan Szymborski: YOu haev more faith in the voters than I do.

1:21
Dan Szymborski: (On my new computer now, in its debut FG chat)

1:21
Comment From Archer
At what point would you drop Moustakas for any living body at 3B? Rendon, Nelson, Chisenhall don’t inspire much more confidence.

1:21
Dan Szymborski: I’d stick with moose for now

1:21
Comment From Matt
ZiPS has no legs? Is the chair necessary?

1:21
Dan Szymborski: It has a rocket bottom.

1:21
Comment From Thomas
On a scale of 1-Mike Tyson, how crazy is it that Chris Johnson and Justin Upton have already our WAR-ed the ZIPS projection for Martin Prado’s ENTIRE season?

1:22
Dan Szymborski: Pretty crazy. With so many players in baseball, odds dictate we should see lots of crazy things, remember

1:22
Comment From saskatunes
Cheesebourgeoisie in Worker’s Paradise

1:22
Comment From Andrew
Is Verlander just warming up for the season, not really trying, or has actually lost some velo for good?

1:23
Dan Szymborski: I’d be a litlte concerned, but not overly worried.

1:23
Comment From Eddie Vedder
Oops, I named the band after Mookie Blaylock, not Mookie Wilson. It was an earlier name of the band soon to be known as Pearl Jam.

1:23
Comment From Oliver
Better bet for the HoF–Beltran or Andruw Jones?

1:23
Dan Szymborski: Beltran, though I don’t think either gets in easily (though both are HoFers on merit)

1:24
Dan Szymborski: People will remember the bad part of Andruw’s career and the early decline more than his peak awesomeness.

1:24
Comment From Doctor Met
Do the Indians turn back to Carasco and Bauer to solve their pitching woes? Kazmir was just embarrassing!

1:24
Dan Szymborski: I was glad I missed Kazmir’s start as it would have made me very sad.

1:25
Dan Szymborski: Carrasco won’t solve anything, their best bet is Bauer can get his ship together

1:25
Comment From SMC
How good is Ian Desmond? Was 2012 his ceiling?

1:25
Dan Szymborski: Probably.

1:25
Comment From Ivy
What do you think about Doubront against a suddenly quiet A’s lineup?

1:25
Dan Szymborski: I would start him

1:25
Comment From Ryan
do you really think Stanton is getting traded to the O’s? What would it take?

1:26
Dan Szymborski: A lot.

1:26
Comment From Saba Simba
Your favorite pro wrestling gimmick of all-time? Old School Goldust, old school Undertaker, or other?

1:26
Dan Szymborski: I loved the Waylon Mercy gimmick.

1:26
Comment From Sadwick
Ah, the old multiple account two-step. The internet is truly the breeding ground of rational debate and deep intellectual thought.

1:27
Comment From STiVo
CoveitLive should have a “I’m no longer taking questions” for the chat host. This would combat people’s brilliant end-of-chat questions getting wasted. Good idea or great idea?

1:27
Dan Szymborski: It’s a risk you take!

1:27
Comment From Ian
I don’t understand the Darvish picture!

1:27
Dan Szymborski: It’s an easy puzzle.!

1:27
Comment From saskatunes
When is the MLB going to get appropriately PC and call it the “Differently Abled List”

1:28
Comment From Andy
Favorite Dota 2 hero? I see you as a stun-and-smash strength hero like Sven or Skeleton King

1:29
Dan Szymborski: I do like skeleton king

1:29
Dan Szymborski: and lifestealer

1:29
Dan Szymborski: But I’m still a novice dota2 player, so my tastes will probably change

1:29
Comment From 90s Grunge Fan
Did you intentionally ignore the Pearl Jam & Mookie Blaylock reference in the earlier question about Mookie Wilson? I am going to listen to Jeremy for about 10 hours looped now!

1:29
Dan Szymborski: I wasn’t relaly into Pearl Jam, to be honest

1:29
Comment From Bill
Mrs. Cleo, tell me the exact date Zunino will get called up. If you get the date within 15 days, I’ll mail you cookies.

1:30
Dan Szymborski: Smarch Eleventy-three.

1:30
Comment From BJ
Teams have too much invested in their top prospects to just swap them like that. There’s fan base attachment, etc. Not to mention that the Cards are way too smart an organization – they have Beltran’s contract timed perfectly so that Taveras should be ready to take over when Beltran is done

1:30
Dan Szymborski: A few more than time to go

1:30
Comment From Chicago Mark
Hello Dan, When I see someone’s velosity down from last year I look at two things. 1. Has it gone up any from start 1, 2, 3… and 2. Was it down last April year. Do you think that is sound thinking? When does velosity begin to worry you?

1:30
Dan Szymborski: Generally, I start to panic when May ends.

1:30
Comment From LBest
New computer?

1:31
Dan Szymborski: Yup, new build. 3770k, 7970, SSD, 2 extra hard drives

1:31
Comment From Justin Upton
Am I an MVP?

1:31
Dan Szymborski: If season ended today, yes.

1:31
Comment From Tom
Mark Reynolds…how long will he keep up this torrid streak? He’s been going strong since Sept…

1:31
Dan Szymborski: He’s having his 6 week crazy period early this year.

1:31
Comment From Alex
Speaking of Stanton, is his shoulder something to be concerned about? I love the guy but I wouldn’t want my team to trade for him right now

1:31
Dan Szymborski: Presumably, you’d get to do a physical on him

1:32
Comment From mets fan
Zach Wheeler looked terrible again? Yet the mets have a terrible rotation/injuries..when do they call him up

1:32
Dan Szymborski: He’s good enough to be in rotation now, but the Mets aren’t *really* good enough, even if .500 now, to not rush his service clock

1:33
Dan Szymborski: Remember, the Wilpons have like $900 million in loans due in next 2 years

1:33
Comment From Richie
Part of not trading prospects is the ‘endowment effect’. The UltraShiny Prospect I’ve nurtured and cherished these past few years is just so clearly better than some other team’s UltraShiny Prospect. Each team very likely values its own a bit optimisticly. Thus tossing two wrenches into the making of a deal.

1:33
Comment From Jordan
Stupid shockwave flash is killing me right now

1:33
Dan Szymborski: On that note, time for me to bugger off for the week.

1:34
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone, and I hope to see you next week! As usual, you can find my writing at ESPN, ZiPS and chats at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter, and wherever alcohol in southwest ohio is sold.

1:34
Dan Szymborski: And the winners of the music contest did receive their prizes. The Starting Lineup figure won by 2nd place turned out to be 1995 Paul O’Neill.

1:34
Comment From Andrew
I love consuming entertainment and content for free.


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