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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/29/13

11:52
Dan Szymborski: Welcome to my weekly FanGraphs chat, YOUR prime source for mean-spirited answers and vague references to games only über-nerds play (h/t @ChrisRauch83)
11:52
Comment From chris
The only discernible difference for Ervin Santana this season is he is throwing a 2-seamer 12% of the time compared to less than a percent for his career, according to PITCHf/x. xFIP is at 3.22. His LOB% is high at 89%, though. Is this a new and improved version or just a mirage?
11:53
Dan Szymborski: Probably somewhere in the middle. He’s really pitching well this season, so he’s going to crush his projections at least.
11:53
Dan Szymborski: Santana’s had runs of awesomeness before, so don’t get *too* excited quite yet.
11:53
Comment From Matt H
Jason Collins. Awesome, or the awesomest?
11:54
Dan Szymborski: I am always in favor of rich, attractive, athletic men coming out. It reduces the competition for people that look like drunk albino apes, like me.

11:54
Comment From saskatunes
Dan, talk me off the Vogelsong ledge. (20 teamer)
11:54
Dan Szymborski: It’s April.
11:54
Comment From dpurps
Should I drop Rendon to pick up Arenado? (The league weirdly counts batting average and OPS.)
11:55
Dan Szymborski: Arenado’s worth a pickup – Coors is always helpful
11:55
Comment From Thomas
Given this morning’s news, how close do you think we are from seeing an openly gay player in the majors (or minors, for that matter)?
11:55
Dan Szymborski: Closer, I imagine
11:56
Dan Szymborski: Kind of out of my zone of expertise, though I guess that’s never really stopped me before.
11:56
Comment From Bret
It’s just one month, but being 8 games under .500 is going to make things really tough for the Blue Jays, right? Can you say some nice things about the team?
11:56
Dan Szymborski: It’s better that most of their pitchers have just sucked rather than be injured – more hope of a comeback.
11:56
Dan Szymborski: But it’s a very cmpetitive decision. You can lose the AL East in April and I believe the Jays have.
11:57
Dan Szymborski: I think I’m doing a ZiPS standing update for ESPn tomorrow
11:57
Comment From Sizzle
Whose surprising start is more legit: Corbin or Cingrani?
11:57
Dan Szymborski: I like both
11:57
Dan Szymborski: Beer vs. tacos questions always hard
11:58
Comment From AJT
Interesting stuff on Wainwright, how do you see him fairing against the Reds? They are a more patient team than the previous ones he has faced, and do have some good lefty power presence in the lineup.
11:59
Dan Szymborski: Everytime he has Tommy John surgery, Wainwright becomes more awesome than he was before after his recovery is complete.
11:59
Dan Szymborski: If the Cards ever fall out of the race, they should have Waino get another one, just for fun.
12:00
Comment From Matt
Bigger impending dropoff – Moore or Iwakuma?
12:01
Dan Szymborski: I like Moore a lot as I’ve said repeatedly, but I think he’ll still have some down runs until he gets the walks down a little more for good
12:01
Comment From Thomas
Just finished BioShock infinite last night… awesome.
12:01
Dan Szymborski: I won’t give any spoilers, but I have talked about it a lot on twitter lately, which is what I assume the original post refers to
12:01
Dan Szymborski: (Though bioshock infinite is quite popular, so it’s hardly a game that only über-nerds play)
12:02
Dan Szymborski: Now, a game that only über-nerds have played…
12:02
:
12:02
Dan Szymborski: NINJA BASEBALL BATMAN~!
12:02
Comment From chris
Start Volquez vs. CHC and ARI?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: Meh. I don’t trust Volquez for much.
12:02
Comment From chris
Start Garret Richards vs. OAK and BAL?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: I’m not at the point of trusting him at all yet.
12:03
Comment From Jaack
Is it considered impressive to have beat Minesweeper on expert mode. I never thought much of it until two separate people bragged to me about it this past week.
12:04
Dan Szymborski: Minesweeper brags? Unless this is 1987 or you’re talking about YOUR ACTUAL JOB CLEARING DANGEROUS LAND MINES, there ain’t no brags.
12:05
Comment From Guest
Hi Dan I love you have my babies.
12:05
Dan Szymborski: You’re offering me a giant financial burden? That’s kinda rude.
12:05
Comment From Jaack
Since you work for ESPN, will you be giving us comprehensive Tebow coverage?
12:05
Dan Szymborski: I don’t cover football, so I mostly just make Tebow snark on twitter.
12:06
Dan Szymborski: I’m a harsh critic of Tebow.
12:06
Comment From zack
Is Cingrani better, than Leake?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:06
Comment From chris
At what point should we believe velocity numbers?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: As long as you note that April is the lowest velocity month and July/August tend to be the highest pretty quickly.
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Now, the velocity number can’t tell you everything, of course.
12:07
Comment From Chris
Who are some players you are legitimately worried about?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: Victor Martinez for one.
12:08
Dan Szymborski: Hamilton
12:08
Comment From Larry
Who is more likely to finish with more BBs than Ks: Nate McLouth or Alcides Escobar?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: McLouth, I think. Didn’t he come close before? Or at least in the neighborhood?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Plus, he’s got a better head start
12:09
Comment From Eric
When looking at a breakout this early, what numbers are you looking at to determine if the breakout is legit or fool’s gold?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: strikeouts and walks tend to be less volatile
12:09
Comment From zack
Is the rockies pitching staff good enough to contend? I mean, jon Garland?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: Jon Garland has this magical ability to be average-ish on command
12:10
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re a *good* team, but with positive health from their rotation, they’re actually an interesting once
12:10
Dan Szymborski: one
12:11
Dan Szymborski: Remember, part of last season’s suckiness was that they didn’t get anything close to their desired rotation
12:11
Comment From Eric
At what point do we give up on guys like Brandon Belt or Eric Hosmer?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: Still too soon. Again, April
12:11
Comment From Bob Tufts
Has there even been a MLB player whose performance or lack thereof was statistically linked to cold weather?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’ve never looked at the issue.
12:11
Comment From Chase
Was offered Buster and Carlos Gomez for Adam Jones and McCann. Pull the trigger or try to get more for Jones?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: It’s a reasoanble trade.
12:12
Comment From saskatunes
Nuno up for good for the Yanks or just an espresso?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Depends on injuries, really. I expect him to get hit by a meteor, given the Yanks
12:13
Dan Szymborski: But he was awesome for the Scranton whateverthehelltheyarethisyears
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Why can’t they just go back to being the Red Barons?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, you can understand them being the Yankees for awhile (since affiliated), but RailRiders?
12:14
Comment From zack
Will Pujols contract end up being worse than ARODs?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: That would be tough. A-Rod’s second deal with the Yankees was tremendous.
12:15
Dan Szymborski: When he opted out, the Yanks should have thanked him for the most productive years of his contract and then let him part. That extension was just horrific
12:15
Comment From Kyle A
Hi Dan I love you have my babies. Now that I have your attention, what do you think about the Brewers right now? Is Segura as good as he has been so far this season, or is there some true talent level lower? Also, considering that Nori Aoki is second in MLB in defensive bWAR at .8 (Machado at .9), can we ever expect defensive metrics to actually make sense, or is this a flaw of defensive metrics and smaller sample sizes?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t get too excited about defensive metrics in April
12:15
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t even get too excited about the regular, less volatile stats in April!
12:15
Dan Szymborski: I do like Segura.
12:16
Comment From Bobo
How concerned should the Mariners be about Hultzen’s shoulder?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Very.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: You should always be frightened about the arms of your pitchers, but when he’s missing time with rotator cuff inflammation? Pray to the entire pantheon of gods
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Even make up new, implausible gods just to be safe. Pitchers are scary.
12:17
Dan Szymborski: PLEASE DELIVER DANNY HULTZEN, OH BROWN SUGAR CINNAMON POP TART MAN WHO FROSTS AWAY THE SINS OF THE WORLD
12:17
Comment From Bret
Are the Red Sox for real?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: The team has upside and with Lester and Buchholz remembering awesomeness, they have a good shot at hitting it
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Unless this was more a metaphysical question, in which case no, I don’t know if the Red Sox are real. It depends on the nature of reality.
12:18
Comment From zack
So the pirates, above .500 early in the year, and after a very tough schedule. Is this finally the year or do they fall short again?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: I think they fall short of the division, but a good year from them give sthem solid wild card chances
12:19
Comment From zack
Are the Angels in the same boat as the Blue Jays?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Pretty much. It’s hard to make up ground you’ve lost – there’s nobody up there pulling strings to make sure that teams that have bad starts get an extra good run during the year
12:19
Comment From Sean T.
Diamondbacks are 1/2 game behind the Braves for best record in the NL, just won 5/7 versus the Rockies/Giants, and have a SOS that is 40 points higher than anyone else in baseball with Hill, Kubel, Ross, and Eaton all missing significant time. Are they really this good?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: I’ve liked Arizona. Even if I’m not a fan of Towers planning, they have enough talent to be a good team. I had them only a hair behind LA and SF going into the season
12:21
Comment From Chris
Better GoldenEye board: Temple or Complex?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: TEMPLE of course
12:22
Dan Szymborski: The Bunker is the best, of course
12:22
Comment From Matt
Will Trout’s epic age-20 season be the greatest of all time for exactly one year, until Bryce breaks it?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: No, I think Trout’s ’12 is safe
12:22
Comment From Christian
Michael Morse has a .1 WAR through the season, Josh Hamilton has a -.3 WAR. Which do you think ends the season with a higher WAR? (Morse was at .9 WAR before he broke his finger)
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Hamilton still, I think
12:22
Comment From Bruce
It seems like Dickeys K-Rate is going back to 2010/11 level. How did it spike so high last year?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Knucklers are a mystery of the cosmos
12:23
Comment From DJ
What kind of numbers do you expect nate mclouth to finish with? Can he be a legit fantasy OF or is he just on a hot streak?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: Well, he’s not going to keep a BABIP that’s 100 points above his career BABIP
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Probably end up somewhere in 360/420 range, given the numbers in the books already
12:24
Comment From Chicago Mak
Do you think the league catches up to Cingrani’s one trick pony…fastball?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: He’s a pretty deceptive pitcher and people have had trouble catching that pony
12:25
Dan Szymborski: That loopy curveball is pretty new and I expect him to get better. Long-term, he’ll probably have to have a better changeup though
12:26
Comment From zack
Is Adam Wainright the second best pitcher in the NL after Kershaw?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: It’s possible – he’s been on a roll.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: I’ve been falling in love with the Shark this year. He’s really turned the corner
12:27
Comment From Jack
Despite K’ing in 26.5% of his PA’s this year (compared to 16.8% last) Anthony Rizzo’s current SwStr% is virtually identical to last year. Would you agree, then, that the worry about Rizzo is misplaced?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: If you’re worrying about a guy with an .830ish OPS, you must have an awesomely perfect life otherwise!
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Rizzo’s fine.
12:27
Comment From SMC
I dropped Detwiler for Fernandez (better K rate and peripherals). Long term keeper, very deep league. Did I make a mistake?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Well, it is a keeper, deep league. If it’s very deep, didn’t you have a better drop than Detwiler though?
12:28
Comment From Three Fingers Stump
Will it take one time through the league before Cingrani gets lit up or can he keep up his dominance throwing 85% fastballs?
12:28
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
Ernesto Frieri: how many saves do you see in his future w/ Madson rehabbing? Is he the closer in September?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure Madson even exists at this point
12:29
Dan Szymborski: I think someone accidentally vaporized him and baseball’s trying to keep the cops off the trail with stories of his repeated extended rehab
12:29
Comment From Bret
What’s up with Travis Snider? Finally hitting – but is it just BABIP-related luck? And since he is hitting, where is the power?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: Snider’s found his secret of success: simply be 25 points more effective at reaching base on hit balls than Ty Cobb.
12:31
Dan Szymborski: So I’m not optimsitic about him
12:31
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
Would you rather trade Michael Young (5×5 league) for Frieri or Vogelsong?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: Depends what I need, but I wouldn’t panic about the Songbird yet.
12:31
Comment From Jaack
The non-localized Japanese translation for the tite to Ninja Baseball Batman is “Baseball Hand-to-Hand Fighting League Man” which might be more awesome.
12:32
Dan Szymborski: You gotta love that Japanese guys 20 years ago sat down and envisioned what robot ninja version of Sandberg, Clemens, Canseco, and Strawberry would look like
12:32
Comment From Jon
Can Chris Tillman be a reliable fantasy starter this year?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine, but probably not the most reliable
12:32
Comment From BookWorm
What’s less sustainable? Kevin Correia’s LOB% or Kevin Correia’s HR/FB rate?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Anything that results in Kevin Correia not getting his brains beat in is, by definition, unsustainable
12:33
Comment From Minesweeper
Sub 100 on expert is impressive. Completion, not so much.
12:33
Comment From AJT
Tony Cingrani has 37 Ks and 6 BB in his first 23 MLB innings. Aroldis Chapman had 28 K and 13 BB in his first 23 MLB innings. Cingrani should close, that would be a good idea.
12:33
Comment From Todd
Am I wasting my time holding onto AJ Ramos as his hold/save potential will prob be pretty low for the next few yrs?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: It’s fine if it’s cheap – prospective future saves for a guy who doesn’t currently have the job is a tricky task
12:34
Comment From Jon
I know when the Pirates first signed Liriano, you/ZiPS were both pretty optimistic about his chances in Pittsburgh. Still true?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: Yeah. I’m not as concerned with a broken *other* arm
12:35
Comment From Tom
The Cards’ bullpen has to regress to something at least acceptable, right?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Probably. Not likely to be the team’s bright spot though
12:35
Comment From LT
is nate mclouth gonna be fantasy relevant the whole year?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Possibly not unless you’re in an OBP league
12:36
Comment From Dunn Done?
When will Dunn start walking again?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: When they stop publishing walk totals.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: It upsets Dunn.
12:36
Comment From Eminor3rd
Start Saunders vs. BAL? Ottoneu points. Yes, Saunders, I’ve had injuries.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: That’s a real meh.
12:37
Comment From Django
Who are some players whose hot starts you are buying?
12:37
Dan Szymborski: The Red Sox 1-2, the Invisible Rabbit of the Mets, Harper naturally
12:37
Comment From AJT
How sustainable would you say Cingrani’s performance is? Is he really as good as some fans think(ace) or is he more a Ross Detweiler type?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s an ace type right now, but he’s a solid starter
12:38
Comment From Guest
Giancarlo Stanton for Justin Morneau and Shin Soo Choo?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: Rather have Stanton unless I’m really thin
12:39
Comment From Isaac
Would you start Teheran tonight?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: That’s a meh again.
12:39
Comment From Guest
What’s with the Red Sox? Weren’t they supposed to be terrible?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: I had them in mid-80s with wins
12:39
Dan Szymborski: A mid-80s team can turn out to be a good one
12:39
Comment From Jack
Luis Valbuena is a perfectly serviceable, second-division starter, true or false? (Or, do you just not care, because it’s Luis Valbuena?)
12:40
Dan Szymborski: That’s probably not unrealistic. he showed some decent power in the minors at times. – I think he’s better than his career numbers. Probably wouldn’t call him perfectly serviceable, more like a non-terrible stopgap
12:40
Comment From Too Many Joes
Do minor league statistics sway zips very much? Or do rookies mostly have to go against major leaguers for their stats to have any predictive value?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Well, the RoS on FG it doesn’t as FG doesn’t have a translation mechanism
12:41
Comment From Doug
Vernon Wells… um… what the hell?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Pretty much my reaction
12:42
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
% chance a healthy Jason Motte comes back this season and regains the 9th?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: He’s a pitcher. His chances of health are somewhere between 0 and 80%, no idea where
12:42
Comment From Kate
What do you think about the Rangers’ offense?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: It’ll be better. Won’t be one of the top in the league, but they’ll get that OPS+ a bit above 100 in the end
12:43
Comment From Fredi Gonzalez
Am I a waterhead?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: NOt familiar with that term.
12:43
Comment From Sean T.
Wade Miley’s FIP is nearly identical to last year, and his BABIP is at a league-average rate. At what point can we consider him to be just a really good pitcher?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: Well, not as good as he’s been this year, but Miley isn’t a falsh in the pan
12:44
Comment From Jaack
As of 12:15, you have said April 6 times in this chat. What month is it again?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: The cruelest one.
12:44
Comment From William
Who of the random old guys the Yankees signed (Hafer/Wells/Youkillis)? Do you think is most likely to keep up production? Least likely?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: Still think Youklidean Geometry is the way to go
12:44
Comment From BOO-URNS
how many times will fredi ask his players to bunt before he gets over this “element of surprise” nonsense? at this point, the true surprise would be him allowing hitters to swing away.
12:45
Comment From BOO-URNS
so the book is out on gattis. nevertheless, #gattitude
12:45
Comment From Bob Loblaw
What’s the most troubling thing about Josh Hamilton? The plate discipline was always gone, but the .104 ISO is really scary… Even last year when he was horrible for two months (June/July) his ISO during that stretch sat around .200…
12:45
:
12:45
Comment From KJ
For every “don’t worry, it’s April” player, how many actually turn into “whoops well guess they just lost it, back to Bullpen/AAA with you”
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Less than you think. After all, April.
12:46
Comment From Urban Shocker
speaking of which, what’s your take on Brett Anderson?
12:46
Comment From John
Thoughts on Moose Tacos? Hard not to improve ROS, but does he get sent down or will he figure things out soon?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: STOP MAKING QUESTIONS WITH THE ANSWER APRIL
12:46
Comment From Guest
How are things in the torture porn dungeon today?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Had to release them into the wild when the water heater guy replaced the heater a few weeks ago.
12:47
Comment From Bruce
Are Errors part of the fielding WAR calculation? Ian Desmond has 7 already but has a positive WAR
12:47
Dan Szymborski: A play not made as a result of an error will be contained.
12:47
Comment From Mike
Who will have a better career? Smoak or Mike Carp
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Carp.
12:48
Dan Szymborski: People have this idea that Smoak’s still of prospect age. He’s a few months younger than Carp.
12:48
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
complex forever (stacks/library were badass too)
12:48
Dan Szymborski: We played a lot of facility too
12:49
Dan Szymborski: But in the bunker, we’d have LONG proximity mine battles, with lots of gambling, beer, and weed
12:49
Comment From Eminor3rd
Ditched the Liberty Launcher for vanilla at your advice. Got used to the speed within 15 minutes. Realized I play pubs so there aren’t any good pyros. Was so happy with it I cashed in a bunch of metal for a Festive! Thanks Dan, TF2 guru!
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I play a lot of TF2, but I’m not one of the elite-skilled players.
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Are you one of the players that pops in to play with me? I play with Wiers occasionally and there are a few FG readers that come play
12:50
Comment From Anon
Re: Goldeneye. Stack. Not even close.
12:50
Comment From Eminor3rd
DUDE complex!
12:51
Dan Szymborski: If you play in a game on the serve I play on, the guys you really want to watch for play tips are ninjamoocow and Vander Smander.
12:51
Comment From dpurps
Regarding Goldeneye: the best level was Facility. Nothing beats big, dumb shootouts in the bathroom.
12:51
Comment From Steve
Any thoughts on how well John Lackey has performed to date? Is it safe to say that 2011 was an aberration and he will perform more in line with his 2010 from here on out, or should Red Sox fans remain skeptical?
12:51
Dan Szymborski: 2010 was a disappointment, but the Red Sox woudl take it at this point
12:51
Dan Szymborski: He’s never going to better than a 3/4 guy again
12:52
Comment From tylersnotes
zach britton! or zach britton? ZiPS is far and away the least optimistic on him of all the projection system. Do you see him as representing any sort of upgrade over Arrieta?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Take the middle, which is an interrobang.
12:52
Dan Szymborski: I’ve always had a soft spot for Arrieta, but he keeps breaking my heart
12:52
Comment From juan pierres mustache
bunker was good for some game modes, but there were cases where camping the helipad was pretty unbalanced. they could have just ended that hallway at the exterior door and no one would have a problem with it
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Isaac, I’m not answer your question as you have B:I spoilers!
12:53
Comment From Pertinent
How long until young guys like Tony Cingrani and Shelby Miller get figured out? Is Miller already there?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Well, they’re not going to match waht they have, but I like both guys
12:53
Comment From AAJT
Which name is more Italian: Cistulli or Cingrani?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Cingrani I think
12:54
Dan Szymborski: If they’re close, you have to give the edge to Tony over Carson
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Dan Szymborski is pretty Polish, but Kazimierz Szymanski would win a Pole-off.
12:54
Comment From Oren
If Future Dan showed up and told you that there would be a Jays-Angels ALCS, what would your thoughts (on the baseball part of it) be?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: (whew)
12:55
Dan Szymborski: I’d be very relieved.
12:55
Comment From Pertinent
How much money did the Cardinals save by signing Wainwright in the offseason?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Many burlap sacks with dollar signs.
12:55
Comment From BassmanUW
Also, Rizzo’s last 7 days: .273/.360/.591. Rizzo’s last 14: .255/.327/.596. And that’s with a .226 BABIP over the last 14 days.
12:55
Comment From Doug
Does Jon Morosi break enough news to be a worthwhile Twitter-follow given all the trolling? Do we have a troll:news rule of thumb?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: You have to have *some* trolling on Twitter.
12:56
Dan Szymborski: What’s the fun of reading if it can’t get you angry sometimes?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: I’m following him, so by definition, he’s worthwhile to follow.
12:56
Comment From Rated Rookie
When will my Google News searches for “Mike Zunino” yield results that include phrases like “called up to the Mariners” and “Montero experiment over in Seattle”?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Google has a future search
12:56
Comment From Ray
Dan, were you the one who posted the weird puzzle with Yu, the clock and some other pictures? If so care to reveal the solution? I don’t want to say it’s driven me nuts this week but…well, I’m one step from the loony bin right now.
12:56
:
12:57
Dan Szymborski: I’ll let someone else give the answer. If nobody makes comment, I’ll give it.
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Thought it was pretty easy actually!
12:57
Comment From sum1
Chris Davis killed my A’s this weekend. ZiPS still only projects him as a touch above league average ROS (111 wRC+). With his improved contact rate and BBs way up, what do you think?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: I’m more optimistic than ZiPS
12:58
Comment From zack
Does Carlos Martinez appear in the big leagues this year?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Coffee at most.
12:58
Comment From Dan
With your recent PC build. Will the Zips super computer be twice as fast?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Actually had two recent builds – the ZiPS SuperComputer had a new build last month.
1:00
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS runs on a 3930k with everything on a solid state drive (no traditional hard drive) and a boatload of RAM
1:00
Dan Szymborski: My everyday, workhorse build is a 3770k with an overclocked 7970 GHz edition.
1:00
Comment From Ray
Is Melky back to pre-PED’s suckitude? Starting to get worried about him and, to a lesser extent, the Jays in general.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: April
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Remember, Melky passed all his tests before last summer.
1:01
Comment From Maxamuz
Dan I want your gut feeling only on this question. Do I start Hafner, Werth, Crawford, D. Murphy or Morse tonight in my Utility spot?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Crawford
1:01
Comment From Michael
Would you trade Harper and Beltre for Trout and Longoria right now?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:02
Comment From Chris
Believe in Mujica or is he just keeping the seat warm?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: He’s your standard B+ reliever that can close when needed.
1:02
Comment From Dan
Which of these relative “non-prospects” who are tearing it up do you buy into as major leaguers? Mike O’Neill, Ronald Torreyes, Vince Belnome, Seth Maness?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: O’Neill, I think
1:03
Dan Szymborski: With those names, I know *which* Dan I’m talking to!
1:04
Comment From BassmanUW
Honestly, if Cubs fans should be at all worried about any of their young cornerstones, it should be Castro. The defense has been subpar, he’s not walking, he’s striking out more than he has, and he’s not showing any power. It’s honestly too early by at least a month to be concerned, but the Rizzo talk is overblown.
1:04
Comment From Innerlewd
Lemahieu and his 2012 road line of .297/.350/.396 98wRC+ would be a much better option at 2B/3B than what the Rockies have received from
Reid Brignac .263/.300 /.316 57wRC+
Rutledge .184/.226/.265 41wRC+
Nelson .219/.242 /.219 26wrC+
JH .000/.000/.000 -100wRC+ Right?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Yes.
1:04
Comment From Dan
Is Zips better correlated with SIERA than FIP? I remember FIP seemed to be a good indicator for Zips back in the day.
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Coudln’t tell you offhand. ZiPS has a lot of FIP in it. I have a newer build debuting in the fall that I’m happy with, that incorporates more pitch data
1:05
Comment From Larry
Why does Jonatahn Sanchez still get opportunities?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: He was tantalizing for awhiel
1:05
Comment From JEB
Start Frenandez at home today against Harvey and the Mets?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Unless a very shallow league or a very tough start, I’d regularly starthim
1:06
Comment From Andrew
Dillon Gee is on all sorts of ‘better than you think lists,’ but when I watch him he looks eminently hittable. What are your thoughts?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: I’ve never been all that excited about the Whiz. He’s a back-rotation guy, I feel.
1:07
Comment From Andrew
Rendon’s gone on Fri, huh
1:07
Comment From Ben
Matt Moore has been great, but very lucky as well. I have an offer of Votto and Holland for my Moore and Ike Davis. Im thinking I should pull the trigger, what are your thoughts?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Fire.
1:07
Comment From Ehs Fan
Always been a big fan of Josh Donaldson. His bat control has been outstanding this year. Has he turned a major corner or SSS stranger danger?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: His outlook improved a lot after 2012, but I’d still be suspicious of him being *this* good
1:08
Comment From Guest
is it better to have Cashner or straily at this point?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Straily safer, Cashner more upside
1:09
Comment From Dan
What’s more un/likely, Peter Bourjos as a 140 wRC+ hitter or -20 fielder for a full season (both currently happening.)
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Both are extremely unlikely, obviously. I’ll buy him as a terrific hitter before a terrible defensive player
1:10
Comment From Izzy
The invisible rabbit of the Mets?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: How many invisible rabbits do you know?
1:10
Comment From Andrew
Is Chris Capuano more than ‘meh?’
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Call him meh-plus.
1:11
Comment From Trey
What’s up with Martin Prado?
1:11
Comment From Guest
How concerned are you about Rutlegde’s LD/GB rate?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: April
1:11
Comment From Izzy
How good is Manny Machado defensively?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Machado’s so good at third base that one might wonder if he’s perhaps he’s actually a shortstop but plays for a team that seems intent on moving him off shortstop prematurely.
1:12
Comment From Pertinent
When does Taveras come up to spell Jay in center? This is painful.
1:12
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t panic about the federalist
1:12
Comment From Ed
How much longer will I be frustrated Smyly aint in the rotation?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: As things are now, Porcello’s death grip on the spot has to be loosening
1:13
Comment From Izzy
Why does current WAR + ZIPS (ROS) not add up to ZIPS (U). For instance, David Wright has 1.2 WAR now and 3.6 ROS WAR but only 4.4 ZIPS (U) WAR.
1:14
Dan Szymborski: Hard to tell as I don’t do the WAR component of that – FG’s is calculating it. Likely a baserunning thing
1:15
Comment From alex
Wil Myers when will we see him?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Shouldn’t be too long now that he’s not on a franchise that’s determined to play a terrible player over him.
1:16
Comment From zack
Does Jeter ever play SS again?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Yup.
1:16
Comment From Django
Are you really thin?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: I’m I’m really thin, Jeff Francoeur is the best player in baseball history.
1:16
Comment From Jim Leyland
How many nights do I roll over in bed wondering when I’m just gonna forget this Dirks/Tuiasosopoopoo/Kelly mess and let the Castellanos Kid hit everyday?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Depends if you run out of cigarettes.
1:17
Comment From Pertinent
Does Brett Lawrie put it all together as we head into May?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: I keep hoping.
1:17
Comment From Nick
Is it fair to say Dexter Fowler has already broken out? Yeah, yeah, Coors, but he’s 27 and has a .370 woba over the past two calendar years (ahead of Hamilton and Pujols). WHY IS NOBODY TALKING ABOUT THIS?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: He’s a solid player, and was very overlooked. Not really a good CF though
1:17
Comment From Maxamuz
Whats up with McCutchen?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: April.
1:17
Comment From Alex Trebek
It is the fourth month of the calendar year?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: What is April?
1:17
Comment From zack
Will the Phillies bench Dominic Brown for delmon?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: I fear so.
1:18
Comment From KJ
How do you answer all these questions on May 2?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: April/May
1:18
Dan Szymborski: A few more than I have to go
1:19
Comment From Isaac
Any good links explains symbolism in Bioshock Infinite?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: IGN had a good rundown of many of the existing theories about the meaning of the ending
1:20
Dan Szymborski: And there’s a very good thread http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=533205
1:21
Dan Szymborski: Without spoilers, there’s just so much art in that game that it makes you just sit and look at it
1:21
Dan Szymborski: Like the sign at the restaurant that was a homage to A Voluptuary Under The Horrors of Digestion
1:21
Comment From Andrew
PS4 or Xbox 720?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: PS4 for me, though it’s up to choice
1:22
Comment From Eric
Is anyone using nearest neighbor models to make projections?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Specifically? I’m unaware
1:23
Comment From Badger
That puzzle might be my favorite Yuniesky Betancourt thing of all time.
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Ding ding
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1:23
Comment From Doctor Met
You are the only “scrabble” left in the majors now now that Tom is in the minors
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Tom washed out a decade ago!
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Which pisses me off. If Tom Szymborski had made the majors as a regular,then I could have my name said in MLB The Show
1:24
Dan Szymborski: but I have to use Szuminski
1:24
Comment From Bryz
“How many invisible rabbits do you know?” I know of Harv – ohhh…
1:24
Comment From person
I dunno. I think while referentially correct, “The Invisible Rabbit” is a pretty lousy nickname :)
1:24
Comment From Isaac
Harvey is like 60 years old, Dan. Timely reference.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: When I wrote an article about the end of the current Yankees dynasty, I tried to compare them to the Battle of Myriokephalon. Settled on a simple Byzantine reference.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: And you could just call him The Rabbit if you wanted.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: I like dumb nicknames. I’m on record of wishing Ian Desmond would get #22 so I could call him Desmond Two-Two.
1:26
Comment From Thoth
how come everyone thinks the fireballers– Zumaya, Lindstrom, Matt Anderson, Kenley Jansen, Rosenthal– are destined for the closer’s role? Manager’s aversion to walks mostly overide their thirst for Ks.
1:26
Dan Szymborski: They do tend to get tehre
1:26
Comment From PaulM
Yes the sample size is small, but that heel injury sure isn’t hampering Big Papi. Dude is mashing.
1:26
Dan Szymborski: It’s not like it’s destroying his ability to field or run out infield singles
1:26
Comment From Ned Colletti
How do I go about suing Carlos Quentin for destroying my starting rotation?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: I’m on record of believing MLB needs to have a more serious approach to hitters charging the mound.
1:28
Dan Szymborski: If someone ran across the field and attacked Peyton Manning in the huddle, you’d be damn sure that they’ll be suspended for more than 4/81ths of a seaon.
1:28
Comment From JT
Holy friggin’ funny! ”
PLEASE DELIVER DANNY HULTZEN, OH BROWN SUGAR CINNAMON POP TART MAN WHO FROSTS AWAY THE SINS OF THE WORLD”
1:28
Comment From Isaac
Does ZiPS incorporate The Will To Win?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Someone on South Side Sox (I think) suggests that Harrelson needs to start focusing on TWTSTFU
1:28
Comment From Sadwick
Better question: Should Jeter ever play shortstop again?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Probably not.
1:28
Comment From juan pierres mustache
wait, but jeter’s getting old and hurt! what if he suddenly has trouble fielding balls hit to a certain side of him or something like that that makes him a weak defensive shortstop?
1:29
Comment From Nick
Seems like XBox made a mistake not just calling the 360 -Xbox2…right?
1:29
Dan Szymborski: I think they should’ve more future-proofed it and at least just added 180
1:29
Comment From Doctor Met
rzepczynski, szymborski same difference, oops!
1:29
Comment From Sadwick
If the Invisible Rabbit is a poor nickname you can just call him Rogaine, that way there’s no vanishing hare. Someone will punch me for that later……
1:29
Comment From JT
That puzzle is Yuniesky Betancourt? What parts do the Today show anchor and the signal flags represent?
1:30
Dan Szymborski: Yu, Knee, “s”, key, bet, ann, court
1:30
Comment From LBest
What’s the biggest challenge being in media?
1:30
Dan Szymborski: General or for me?
1:31
Dan Szymborski: I’ll assume for me.
1:31
Dan Szymborski: For me, it’s taking all my various hats and turning it into a cohesive blend.
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Sometimes I need to play the stat guy, sometimes the writer guy, and sometimes the nerd guy, and sometimes these things can clash, especially as I’m already slightly deranged
1:33
Dan Szymborski: Am I a number-cruncher who writes? Am I a writer with a useful secondary skillset? Can I successfully combine both? That’s the challenge that’s always in the back of my mind
1:34
Dan Szymborski: Because when it comes down to it, my communication style isn’t that of the policy wonk type.
1:35
Dan Szymborski: So on that note, I’ll sign off for the week. Remember, you can find my work at ESPN, my chats and projections at FanGraphs, insane rambling at @DSzymborski on Twitter, and if you want to play a game of TF2, I’m always up for a game with readers (and I play on a very solid server that’s good for a game)
1:35
Dan Szymborski: And I’ll leave you with more random images!
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