Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/13/13

12:00
Dan Szymborski: It begins. 30 seconds to turn down your speaker.
12:00
Comment From zack
could you see any smaller market fringe contender like Pittsburgh, Colorado, or Baltimore going all in and trying to deal for Cliff Lee?
12:01
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so. Even if they were willing, I don’t think the Phillies are living in reality land.
12:01
Comment From tylersnotes
which happens first: keppinger walk, hr, or sb?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: starting to think sun turns into a red giant first.
12:03
Comment From Archer
Espinosa vs. Daniel Murphy RoS in a 12-team H2H 5×5(OBP)?

12:03
Dan Szymborski: Depends on how important BA is for you.
12:03
Comment From Izzy
If you were ranking pitchers, about how highly would you rank Matt Harvey? Is he top 15?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: Very high, not sure I’d put him in top 15 *quite* yet, but I tend to be conervative
12:04
Comment From zack
Better rest of the season: Josh Hamilton or Delmon? Just kidding, but really how scary is it that this question isn’t comically insane?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: I know, scary stuff. Would still take Hamilton first.
12:04
Dan Szymborski: His crazy swings will eventually luck into some more hits.
12:06
Dan Szymborski: For one, he’s not going to continue to have a BABIP around .250. BABIP is more “real” for hitters than pitchers, but I think he could do that with one of those wooden peg legs that cartoons told me pirates have.
12:06
Comment From Ryan Seacrest
You see Scott Kazmir’s start (or highlights)? Were you impressed and do you think the improvement is sustainable?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: I’m very impressed and he’s the player I was most rooting for to crush his projections.
12:06
Dan Szymborski: The x factor, of course, is the injury risk.
12:06
Comment From Querulous Racqueteer
What win $ value would you attach to the Anthony Rizzo contract for evaluative purposes? $6mm seems a bit high, though perhaps not for the later years of the deal …
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Can’t give an exact answer in this format – this is the kind of question you should be hitting me on twitter for!
12:07
Comment From Archer Asylum
With his improved control to go with his regained velocity, could this be Kazmir’s career year?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: If he stays healthy, sure.
12:07
Comment From Lancelicious
Manny Machado – is it too early to just award him the Gold Glove at third base?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: He’s been terrific there. As I’ve noted before, he plays so well at third that you might have thought he was actually a middle infielder playing out of position because the O’s did nothing to find a third baseman and decided that brian roberts would be healthy and alexi casilla and ryan flaherty were good plan Bs at second.
12:09
Dan Szymborski: But maybe that’s just me.
12:09
Comment From Bkgeneral
Matt Kemp has been a disappointment at best. What do you see ROS?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: Very concerned. He’s now 279/331/426 over the last calendar year.
12:11
Comment From Milwaukee BeerJays
Is Michael Saunders bat legit?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: *Starting* to get there. Because let’s be honest, he was quite lousy before last season.
12:11
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
Is Kevin Gausman watch on red alert w/ the injury to Wei Yin Chen?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Possibly. Depends how bad his strain is.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: (Chen)
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Gausman really should be promoted.
12:12
Comment From Archer Asylum
Are Brett Lawrie’s struggles purely mental, or is he really just not as good as everyone thought he was?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Honestly? Not really sure.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: It’d be nice to see him completely healthy
12:13
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
Trade for Ian Kennedy or is he maybe broken or something?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: He’s not broken, it’s just that he’s actually the 2010/2012 kennedy, not the 2011 one.
12:13
Comment From Bkgeneral
It has been Umpirepalooza since your last chat. Thoughts?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: The Jays should bat Jose Bautista in all 9 lineup spots, just in case the umpires donj’t know that rule either
12:15
Dan Szymborski: No wonder I didn’t think the replacement nfl refs were bad the first week or two – it came after watching MLB’s regular umps.
12:15
Comment From Louis
What would be the best area to visit to do a Summer baseball trip on a budget? Minors to the pros, doesn’t matter to me.
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Carolina League if you can handle heat. The Carolinas aren’t expensive and most of the teams aren’t too far apart
12:17
Dan Szymborski: And I think offhand there are 6 Sally League teams in the Carolinas
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Depends where you are of course. If you live in California, obviously a Cal League tour would be less expensive
12:18
Comment From zack
What are the chances that Shelby Miller is better longterm than Matt Harvey? Miller is posting a 2.40 FIP and a 2.93 xFIP vs 2.29 and 2.94 for Harvey and he is 2 years younger.
12:18
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that there’s really much that you can point to to say one is better than the other
12:19
Comment From person not hscer
I can never remember, do you do fantasy questions? Or is that only Eno now?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: I scatter them. Too many can bog down the chat horribly.
12:20
Comment From Milwaukee BeerJays
Also, what happened to Jeremy Guthrie? how do you change from being a career 5+era-er to a sub 2.5?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: Well, he was never actually a 5+ ERA guy. And he’s not really a sub 2.5er now
12:20
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
if Avisail Garcia gets called up as rumored and takes over Andy Dirks’ job is he a must-own in a 16-team mixed 5×5 keeper?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Must-own? No. But he has upside.
12:22
Comment From POTATO_CANNON
Will Ryan Kalish ever become a decent MLB regular?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Probalby not. He’s more likely to be 4th OF type in the long run
12:22
Comment From adam wainright
I am awesome at pitching
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Reposted for truth.
12:22
Comment From Ian
Do you think Jay Bruce can outproduce Stanton ROS given Stanton’s injury?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Qualitative, no, but quantitative maybe.
12:22
Comment From Lue
So the Braves looked terrible over the weekend. Was it more the Giant being really good or the Braves bad?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Don’t read too much into a series.
12:23
Dan Szymborski: OK, LinkedIn just sent me some jobs that it thinks I’d be interested in.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Senior Software Developer, Choice Technology (I’ve never developed software and mostly slept through computer sci in college)
12:24
Dan Szymborski: and a Vice President at NBC Sports! Can’t say I’d complain, but seems an odd suggestion.
12:24
Comment From muskrat rambler
Are Verlander’s best years already behind him?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: Well yeah, he just had two Cy Youngish seasons. You can hardly think the best is yet to come.
12:25
Comment From Steamer
How much faith do you have in ZIPS &/or Steamer ROS projections? For example, Rizzo’s ROS counting stats would place him as the number 2-4 first baseman at season’s end. I like Rizzo, but do you expect him to outperform Encarnacion, Freeman, Goldschmidt, etc. ROS like the ZIPS & Steamer projections do?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: Not sure about Freeman, but I like Rizzo.
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Remember a few weeks ago when he was hitting 220/300/450 or something and people were panicking?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: The most important lesson about April is:
12:26
Dan Szymborski: April.
12:26
:
12:26
Comment From Andrew
Would you trade Hyun Jin Ryu for Tony Cingranni?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Ryu may be safer, but I would probably take CIngrani
12:28
Comment From muskrat rambler
Hector Santiago or Roberto Hernandez in a 5X5?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Santiago. I’m not ready to trust Fauxto.
12:28
Comment From Trevor
Harvey for Machado, who hangs up?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Ouch. I think both teams hang up, actually.
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Challenge trades of your elite prospects is just inviting second guessing
12:28
Dan Szymborski: If Machado gets injured and sucks, nobody’s going to blame Duquette.
12:29
Dan Szymborski: If he trades Machado for Harvey and Harvey gets injured and sucks, everybody would.
12:29
Comment From Ryan Seacrest
Re: Jeff Keppinger. I don’t pay any attention to the Chicago White Sox so I am just now seeing these numbers (didn’t believe he had 0 walks). This might be the worst 125 AB line of all time.
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, usually the line is “dude didn’t just forget to hit over the winter, be patient”
12:29
Dan Szymborski: But Keppinger’s trying that line.
12:29
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
more Walks or more K’s from Bauer today?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: Still Ks I think. Bauer has some rough patches, but it’ sway too early (and he’s not bad enough) to throw him into the Brad Pennington Pile.
12:31
Comment From Rated Rookie
Has Duda’s plate discipline vanished?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: THat’s a little soon to worry. He’s bee in what, 5 games since we talked?
12:31
Comment From RK
Rendon is playing more 2b at AA. % chance he replaces Espinosa by the ASB?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: 40
12:32
Comment From Trevor
Neil Walker, Mitch Moreland or Jayson Werth ROS. Ignore position.
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Isn’t that a little like saying “reuben or croque madame, ignore deliciousness?”
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Porbably walker slightly over werth
12:33
Comment From Smoo
Would you recommend holding dealing Pujols at 75 cents on the dollar because his value will go down, or holding him hoping it will go up?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: I’d hold. He’s not this bad.
12:33
Comment From zack
Fact or fiction: People should be concerned about all pitching prospects at all times because A) they are pitchers, B) pitchers get all the time and C) no one really knows why?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Not just prospects
12:33
Dan Szymborski: all pitchers.
12:33
Dan Szymborski: People should be concerned about pitchers at all times, for all reasons.
12:34
Comment From Mio
Thoughts on Dyson? Francouer is awful.
12:34
Dan Szymborski: My Dyson is a powerful vacuum cleaner, but Francoeur sucks more, I think.
12:34
Dan Szymborski: Oh, the *guy* Dyson
12:34
Dan Szymborski: Not sure if he’s a net positive de facto replacing Frenchy
12:34
Comment From zack
I know most people are on the record as liking Wheeler more than Harvey longterm, but does anyone serious think he will perform better than Harvey has this year?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: No. Harvey’s emergence changes the calculus.
12:35
Dan Szymborski: When it’s possible breakout, I would (and have) taken Wheeler.
12:35
Dan Szymborski: But once he’s actually had the breakout, Harvey becomes the better long-term bet, simply because his breakout is now considerably less speculative
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Evaluations aren’t handed down on stone tablets – new information changes our evaluations.
12:36
Comment From sea salt
how is cleveland team hitting #1 in WAR when nearly everyone in the lineup is like a .250 hitter?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: They’re first in OPS
12:36
Comment From Guest
I am new to this, but it looks like ubaldo jimenez is throwing a change more often and the velo difference between the fastball and change is more pronounced. could this be a reason for recent success?
12:37
Dan Szymborski: It’s possible, but I don’t hav ethe data from his most recent starts right in front of me
12:37
Dan Szymborski: And I don’t want to quite things from memory
12:37
Comment From David
Harvey is on pace for well over 200 IP this season. Think the Mets shut him down at some point?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know about shutting him down, but as they drop out of the race, I expect them to ease up on him as the summer goes on
12:38
Comment From Doctor Met
How many options do minor league players have? I ask because this is Bauer’s third time up for a spot start!
12:38
Dan Szymborski: The option is for a year – it’s not the number of times he’s been demoted
12:38
Dan Szymborski: Once a player is added to the 40-man roster, he can be sent down on optional assignment in 3 seasons.
12:39
Dan Szymborski: And tha tincludes when a player on 40-man roster is sent down at spring training
12:40
Dan Szymborski: So Indians already used an option year.
12:40
Comment From Brandon from greenlawn
Are the Yankees essentially the team version of Aaron Small?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: heh
12:41
Comment From Zach
Liriano, Kazmir, or Ubaldo J. Which one should i grab right now?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Kaz
12:41
Comment From Andy
With Chen injured and Garza returning, the Orioles are totally trading for Scott Feldman, right?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Meh.
12:41
Comment From Doctor Met
Fauxto Carmona is a completely different pitcher (literally) and is actually K’ing people now. Do you buy this newfound ability?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: I remain skeptical
12:41
Comment From Innerlewd
DJ Lemahieu .358/.399/.507(AAA) is an MLB player right? He had a 98wRC+ on the road as a 23yo, and hit .313/.346/.433 as a starter last year… Why is Jonny Herrera(59wRC+) in MLB
12:42
Dan Szymborski: I think he should be in the majors now
12:42
Comment From Izzy
Can you do ROS projections for Minor League Players?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: I can, but I can’t do them en masse, simply because I don’t have a convenient streaming source of minor league data.
12:42
Comment From Brandon from greenlawn
is Girardi manager of the year? I mean putting together gross line ups and getting ridiculously lucky counts as a good job now?
12:42
Comment From Rated Rookie
Hopeless Hosmer fan here. Are the last two weeks any reason to (renew) hope?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I’m a hopeless Hosmer optimistic myself
12:42
Comment From Jim O.
What do you think the Mariners will do about their shortstop situation? How long before they make a move?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: Frankly, Franklin or Triunfel shoudl be there now
12:44
Comment From Guest
Do you think Ian Kinsler can maintain his stellar start to the season?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: Well, those numbers, no. But the Kinslayer was written down too hastily after 2012
12:44
Comment From Lancelicious
I have, for some crazy reason, always been a fan of James Loney. I felt that too many people got wrapped up into the “he doesn’t hit homers” thing so that makes him a horrible first baseman.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: It’s harder to be a good 1B without hitting HR, but it’s possible.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Loney’s generally been disappointing
12:46
Comment From Tom
Any chance we’ll get to see your GAR rankings from ESPN’s Top 100? And if so, when?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t revisited that project for awhile – I’m still trying to figure out an elegant way to not overrate 19th century players
12:46
Comment From Mac Geluso
whats the projection for someone like Pineda this year?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS knows he missed a year with his shoulder.
12:47
Dan Szymborski: And injured pitcher is perhaps more unpredictable than random chance, which kind of breaks mathematics
12:47
Comment From Lancelicious
Bah – hit enter before I meant to. Additional part of my James Loney question. Do you think he continues to hit .300 or better the rest of the way and prove he is valuable there with his decent to above average glove and quality hit skill?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Not sure of .300 – his BABIP is like a million
12:47
Comment From JonnyBats
When you watch baseball, what are the things you look for that differentiate you from the average fan or the average scout?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Wasted movement.
12:48
Comment From Guest
i am in dire need of steals and cameron maybin is available. I could replace saunders with maybin. Worht it?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: No.
12:49
Comment From Milwaukee BeerJays
Lawrie looked good VS boston at the dish, just all his line drives were at people. he smacked a nice BOMB yesterday
12:49
Comment From Mac Geluso
Can Cashman get any return for Nova?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Nova has this wacky tendency that the better his peripherals get, the worse he pitches.
12:50
Comment From Rated Rookie
I’m no scout but Lawrie looks like he needs to *slow down* when he is in the batter’s box.
12:50
Comment From Zach
WHAT UP SZYMLORDS
12:50
Comment From Bob Loblaw
So, obviously Texas’s front office has done a good job of explaining to the on-field personnel that one way to leave your division in your dust is to ruthlessly destroy the 100 loss team almost every time you play them.
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Poor Astros
12:50
Comment From Lue
How concerned are you about Chris Medlen? Bad in 4 of his last 5 starts …
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I’m not worried about Medlen yet
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Though I would say that people moved him past “good pitcher” too quickly
12:51
Comment From Archer
What about the major differences between Steamer and ZiPS? Try to use both for fantasy evaluations, but don’t understand why one system values a player different than the other.
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Well, they have differing methods, I’m sure.
12:51
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know all the internals of Steamer, so it’s hard for me to say for sure
12:51
Comment From Matt
The Os could use a second baseman but they can’t afford to trade or spend much to do it. Would Justin Turner for Xavier Avery work?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Kinda meh on Turner
12:52
Comment From Jason
What does it take to get Ryan Jackson up for Kozma?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: The realization that it’s not a good idea to drastically change your evaluation of a player based on a single month in 2012.
12:53
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
re: Ian Kennedy: I ask if he’s maybe broken because his K rate has taken a dive/ BB rate has spiked and his Zone% is way down….velocity is normal though
12:53
Comment From zack
Any concerns about matt Cain home run prevention skills?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Not really
12:54
Comment From lowercase jeff
how would you handle a platoon of gyorko and middlebrooks at 3b until hanley gets back?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: matchups. I like gyorko better anyway, though middlebrooks is better in fantasy than real life
12:54
Comment From juan pierres mustache
Which is more likely for end-of-season totals for Dee Gordon: 50SB or 3 HR? Or, I suppose, back to the minors in a month
12:54
Dan Szymborski: 3 HR probably most likely
12:55
Comment From B
When does Nick Franklin come up? Sea SS’s are abysmal. Are they just keeping his trade value high as he’s raking AAA pitchers
12:55
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to not justify a promotion at thi spoint
12:55
Comment From Mac Geluso
Teix, Jeter or Granderson, which one has the best chance to be productive this year?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Grandy
12:56
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s the best player of the 3 at this point and I’m less worried about a broken bone than I would be of a torn tendon or ligament or something
12:56
Comment From First Time Poster
I spent my 4th round pick on Moore ina dynasty draft this year (hr/9, k/9. bb/9, RA, K-w/IP), which I think was the right decision as he is a young, talented pitcher on the rise. How highly should I value him moving forward?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Don’t want to give you an exact value without knowing the vagaries of your keeper rules, but I’d still think of him as #2 guy until he wrings a BB/9 out of his stats
12:57
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
Anibal Sanchez: 11+ K/9, 1.46 FIP, .333 babip….chances he ends up in the top 3 Cy Young vote getters?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll still regress enough to fall out of the top 3
12:58
Dan Szymborski: If he doesn’t, maybe broadcasters will stop calling him Annabelle Sanchez.
12:58
Comment From Django
I’m pretty new to FG and ZiPS. Is there a web page that breaks down ZiPS? I’d love to see the history and system behind the projections!
12:59
Dan Szymborski: It’s a little out of date, but www.baseballthinkfactory.org/szymborski/zipsqa.rtf? still works
12:59
Dan Szymborski: There’s more PBP data in ZiPS now, but it covers a lot of the basics
12:59
Comment From lowercase jeff
how much longer do you give konerko before pressing the panic button?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Not panic (he won’t stay with a pitcher-hitter BABIP), but I’d be very concerned he’s finally hitting that glide plane to the end.
1:00
Comment From lowercase jeff
can you give me any insight into miguel montero’s terrible season start?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Still too early to panic, though his end-of-season line will be pretty bleh now
1:01
Comment From First Time Poster
I have players like Machado, Rizzo, and Kipnis in my dynasty under control for 9 years. Should I value this guys (not so much Kip) as top 25 players?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Given the amount of time you have them, sure. Though if the price is higher than I’m thinking in your rules, then I’d push them downwards
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Kipnis, as you say, not so much
1:02
Comment From juan pierres mustache
Which closer reclamation project do you think is most likely to succeed for the rest of 2013 of Gregg/Valverde/Bell?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Valverde, but i’m not relaly high on any of the three
1:03
Comment From Tacoby Bellsbury
Szymborksi Szymborski Szymborski … you’re the one with the spreadsheet monkeys in the dungeon, right?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: I thought we established that I had a torture porn dungeon. Where would I find spreadsheet monkeys?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: I’ve only got 3000 square feet to work with
1:04
Comment From Vince Coleman
Why do you think stolen bases are down compared to year’s past?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: singles are down again
1:05
Dan Szymborski: HRs are actually only a hair below the 2002-2009 average.
1:05
Dan Szymborski: The “low HR era” isn’t really a “low HR era” but a “low BA era”
1:05
Comment From Louis
Thanks for the response. I’d be coming from Texas so the heat isn’t an issue. I was actually thinking the Carolinas as I really want to see Hickory.
1:06
Dan Szymborski: I like carolina bbq, but you may have some regional feud with them coming from texas
1:06
Comment From JDog
Starling Marte = young Alfonso Soriano?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard worse comps
1:06
Comment From Rob
Brandon Maurer debuted a new curve in his last start against the A’s. Your thoughts? (if you saw the game)
1:06
Dan Szymborski: I did not see his last start
1:06
Comment From First Time Poster
Is Anthony Rendon good? I ask because I really don’t know how to evaluate him. What do you predict he could hit in a year or two?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be good, the question is attendance.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think 320/420 is unrealistic right now
1:07
Comment From fish heads
Yelich time before July? At 1b possibly?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Not sure about *that* soon
1:08
Comment From chris sale
I’m also quite good at pitching.
1:08
Comment From First Time Poster
Ervin Santana’s recent success sustainable? His HR/9 will undoubtedly rise, however he isn’t walking anyone and is getting plenty swinging strikes.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: He’s had good runs before. I’m skepitcal about him being this good, but I’m now confident he’s better than ZiPS believes.
1:08
Comment From Hiya
How’s it going? Three almost no-hitters in the St. Louis-Colorado series. That was cool, right?
1:08
Comment From John
All the fangraphs guys were gaga over Burch Smith bc he can touch 98. What did you see saturday?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t see his debut.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I watch a ton of games, but not all 2430
1:09
Comment From Steve
Uggla, yay or nay?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Nay
1:09
Comment From mr. anonymous
victor martinez.. his contact rates all look in line with his career numbers, but he’s not hitting for avg *or* power. babip is roughly .080 lower than career. do you believe the avg will come back even if his power numbers have forever diminished?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Watching Martinez swing, to me, it looks like there’s nothing behind it
1:10
Comment From Mets
Is Terry Collins in any jeopardy of losing his job or is he just doing the best with what he has?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: He’s always going to be jeopardy, I think he’s a transition manager and when the Mets are a better team, they’re going with a different guy
1:11
Comment From Hiya
Have you used the new Standings/Depth Charts things on Fangraphs? If so, what do you use them for? (I like them, but haven’t figured out how to really get the most out of the new info)
1:11
Dan Szymborski: I have not. Since I do my own with ZiPS internally, I’m probably the person that the feature is least targeted towards
1:11
Comment From First Time Poster
Is Mike Olt going to start slipping down prospect lists? It seems like I’ve been hearing negative thing about him on Fangraphs for the past year or two.
1:12
Dan Szymborski: He’s had a rough start for sure
1:12
Dan Szymborski: I think he was a bit too hyped and as I said repeatedly, even at frisco he was still not a finished project
1:12
Comment From Metsamorphosis
Justin Upton sell now candidate?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: If you can get someone to pay you as if he’s an 1000 OPS guy, sure
1:13
Comment From Mac Geluso
Weird they just suggested Fangraphs chat guy for me
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Is that a job?
1:13
Comment From Giant Attitude
With no obvious #5 ready to take over, do you see the Giants going outside the organization for a #5 if Vogey continues to struggle?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: No.
1:13
Comment From Rob
The Mariners don’t look as awful as they did early in the season? Have they improved, or were the early struggles not as big a deal as people made it out to be?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: I just don’t think they’re all that good. They smell like a mid-70s win team to me
1:14
Comment From Anon
What are your thoughts on the rotation of the Cardinals?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: 1. Awesome. 2. How in seven hells does Jake Westbrook get any batter out ever?
1:14
Comment From Jim O.
How patient should the Mariners be with Smoak, Ackley and Montero?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: Impatient, patient, moderately patient respectively
1:14
Comment From First Time Poster
Profar capable of 20/20 seasons? Profar vs. Manchado going to be the next Harper vs. Trout?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: Yes and yes.
1:14
Comment From Bret
The ZIPS ROS for the Jays has them barely above .500 rest of the way. Is it fair to say that for them to compete in 2014, they’ll need some substantial additions?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, it’s hard to gauge just how good this team is.
1:15
Comment From Max
Trade Adrian Gonzalez for Freddie Freeman in a dynasty league?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: I would
1:15
Comment From M.Flynn
You build PCs, don’t you? You occasionally talk computer parts on Twitter. What would be a decent $1000 computer that’s not too hard to build
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Uh, that’s a little hard to go too in-depth here without needs/priorities etc.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Something like 3570k, ASROck extreme 4, a 7870xt GPU
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Decent case and decent power supply. Probalby not fitting a SSD in there.
1:16
Comment From Anon
What would be the best way to adjust game score for strikeout environment? (e.g. – 15Ks in the 40s or 50s campared to now)
1:17
Dan Szymborski: I’d probably do the game scores for an average start historically and rescale by year
1:17
Comment From Tom
What does Zips think about Chris Carpenter as a closer?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Haven’t checked. Presumably good.
1:17
Comment From Tacoby Bellsbury
Remember Dylan Bundy?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: He’s off getting that platelet plasma stuff.
1:18
Dan Szymborski: Kind of like a reduction sauce that they inject into your arm.
1:18
Dan Szymborski: I think
1:18
Comment From Mac Geluso
mets def need that 3B to replace their only good position player
1:18
Comment From First Time Poster
RE: Harvey vs. Machado. Really? I get what you’re saying and I know Harvey is preforming at elite levels but isn’t the rule of thumb Bat >>> pitcher? Not to mention he is capable of playing SS with that bat.
1:19
Dan Szymborski: I hate rules of thumb.
1:19
Comment From Tacoby Bellsbury
There’s a Brad Pennington pile!?!?!?! Pic?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Ack, too soon
1:19
Dan Szymborski: wasn’t done previous Q
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Pitchers are riskier, but comparable when you compare them to replacement level health
1:20
Comment From James
Around what date do you usually “waiting” for the guy that forgot to hit/pitch over winter? (VMart, Sal Perez, ect.)
1:20
Dan Szymborski: When I have my a/c on for 7 consecutive days
1:20
Comment From PaulB
Why would one stat, like average, in a fantasy league be more or less important for your team? Do people intentionally tank certain categories? Isn’t the objective to just get the best players?
1:20
Dan Szymborski: Marginal value. If you’ve got a big HR lead and terrible in BA, prioritizing HR over BA leads to diminishing returns
1:21
Dan Szymborski: There’s no value, in fantasy, in crushing 2nd place ina category at the end of the year
1:21
Dan Szymborski: A few more quickies then time to go
1:21
Comment From Travis L
When looking at ZIPS projections for a full team, does the margin for error increase or decrease due to summing projections? IE, would you expect more variance from a single player’s projection, or from a full team?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: More variance form a player for sure
1:22
Dan Szymborski: from a player
1:22
Comment From Doctor Met
ZING I see what you did there re: Frenchy. JJ Hoover would take offense to being left out of the conversation!
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Damn you guys asked a lot of questions today
1:22
Comment From Mike
Are the Braves the favorite in the NL East now, or has their recent swoon made it the Nats again–or is it a tossup?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s badk to a tossup
1:23
Comment From soxfan
What are the Odds that Trout goes .300-30-30 this year based on his start?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: 15%? I think he falls a little short on HR/BA
1:23
Comment From Dreamin
Thanks to Keppinger, I now know that wRC+ goes into the negatives!
1:24
Comment From Too Many Joes
What do you think of George Springer? Can his approach translate to the majors? Adam Dunn with speed, maybe?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: I like Springer a lot.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think he’s a candidate to skip AAA though
1:25
Comment From Norm
Are you as optimistic about Ike Davis as you are with Hosmer?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: No, I’ve never been that optimistic on Ike
1:25
Comment From gregory
Any thoughts on the reported Anthony Rizzo contract extension? Seems like a pretty good deal for the Cubs, right?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Like, but can’t put a number on it
1:25
Comment From Adrian
Isn’t Hosmer just another Jame Loney?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Don’t say that!
1:25
Comment From Dreamin
I would think the fact that Loney averages less than a WAR a year is why he’s a horrible first baseman
1:25
Comment From Eric
What kind of contract do you think Lincecum gets next year?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: short contract with upside
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Nobody’s giving him 9 figures now
1:26
Comment From JEB
Valar Morghulis
1:26
Dan Szymborski: valar dohaeris
1:26
Comment From Cameroon Diego
What is the anatomy of a good question on a Fangraphs chat?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Something that everyone can appreciate, something short enough that I don’t have to waste 5 minutes running and/or thinking about
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Opportunity for a lame joke.
1:26
Comment From Raaaaandy
Masterson lookin nasty right now
1:26
Comment From zack
Roberto Hernandez does not exist. There is fausto daemons.
1:27
Comment From Pedantic A**hole
There are serious doubts concerning Franklin’s ability to handle short.
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Nothing ventured, nothing gained
1:27
Dan Szymborski: He comes up and can’t hack it at short in the majors, causing the M’s to be a mediocre team. They’re already that.
1:28
Comment From zack
Is matt carpenter’s defense good enough to stick at second given his bat?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: So far so good.
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Sometimes, you just have to see – Brett Lawrie was supposed to be a lousy defender coming up and Dee Gordon an excellent one
1:28
Comment From zack
How awesome is healthy TULO?
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Awesomer than a metaphor involving comparing Tulo to awesome things.
1:29
Comment From Benji
Any thoughts about WIl Myers and Profar’s apparent mediocrity at AAA this year?
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Too soon to worry.
1:29
Comment From Bro question, clown
Has Safeco still been playing as a pitchers park, or is it closer to neutral now? Do we have enough data to conclude anything?
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Not enough data fora conclusion. One year park factors are terrible. We have 6 weeks.
1:30
Dan Szymborski: But in *very* early going, it’s still showing up as a strong pitcher’s park, just not as strong as the last few years
1:30
Comment From Willie
I’m telling people that Delmon Young puts up 25 Hr’s in Philly this year – they think I’m nuts. what do you think?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: add some phyllo and honey and call yourself baklava
1:32
Comment From Crawdad
If you were to start a Fangraphs spinoff (ala BeerGraphs and Eno), what would it be?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: perhaps a nerdy music site
1:32
Dan Szymborski: or football
1:32
Dan Szymborski: or pro wrestling
1:32
Dan Szymborski: or video games
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Probably video games
1:32
Comment From Tacoby Bellsbury
“I really want to see Hickory” is not something you will ever hear from someone who has been to Hickory.
1:33
Comment From the biggest boy brandon gelsuo son of anne van dance
my dad says cheese is only for dumb dumbs, true or false
1:33
Dan Szymborski: false
1:33
Comment From Turbo Sloth
When you play TF2, who are your favorite characters to play as? I personally love Pyro and Gunslinger Engy.
1:33
Dan Szymborski: Pyro, Heavy, Mini-sentry engy, huntsman sniper
1:34
Dan Szymborski: I play with a handful of FG writers and readers
1:34
Dan Szymborski: I’m DSzymborski on Steam
1:34
Comment From Jay
You say your “very concerned” about Kemp. How would you value him in a keeper league? Do I suck it up and wait for next year? Or do I need to sell now, while people might still think he has elite talent in there?
1:34
Dan Szymborski: I would sell if you can get someone to pay elite prices
1:34
Comment From gregory
any thoughts on Derek Dietrich?
1:34
Dan Szymborski: bullish. he may be the best offensive 2B/3B/SS type on the team
1:34
Dan Szymborski: OK, that’s not saying much, but I like him
1:34
Comment From Daniel
Are the Padres really better than the Dodgers?
1:35
Dan Szymborski: Probably not
1:35
Comment From Bkgeneral
Does Bud Norris pitch for a playoff team this season?
1:35
Dan Szymborski: No
1:35
Comment From juan pierres mustache
how does a mid-70s win team smell?
1:35
Dan Szymborski: sweat, doritos, juniper
1:35
Comment From Crap McGee
Welcome to the Dan and First Time Poster show!
1:35
Comment From 1313
will the pirates finish over .500 this year? LOOK INTO YOUR CRYSTAL BALL, SZYMBORSKI.
1:35
Dan Szymborski: Yes, closely
1:35
Comment From Jason
Does ESPN mandate that guys can only chat for their allotted hour? So many guys seem to end at exactly on the hour. Less passion? Too much other work to do?
1:36
Dan Szymborski: Honeslty, I’m not sure what the ESPN policy is.
1:36
Dan Szymborski: I don’t really do the one-hour chats, they like to use me for the Event Chats and leave me chatting for hours
1:37
Comment From Max
Yes, all men must die. BUT WE ARE NOT MEN.
1:37
Dan Szymborski: We are devo?
1:37
Comment From Harper fan
Please answer my Bryce Harper question, I have waited like 3 weeks to ask it.
1:37
Dan Szymborski: If you ask me on twitter afterwards, I can give you an answer – too hard to do quickly in a chat
1:38
Comment From Jason
is there going to be a point where jordan schafer starts regularly over b.j. upton in CF
1:38
Dan Szymborski: Probably not.
1:38
Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot invested in B.J. Upton and let’s be honest, Jordan Schafer’s still likely to end up being JOrdan Schafer
1:38
Comment From Milwaukee BeerJays
could you go beer-for-beer with wade boggs?
1:39
Dan Szymborski: The most drinks I’ve done in an evening is upper 20s. Without getting sick, probably 23/24 in an evening.
1:39
Dan Szymborski: Chris Dial (from BTF, you may not know him since he’s not actively writing much) is the best drinker I’ve ever hung out with
1:39
Dan Szymborski: He can outdrink me.
1:39
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
Did someone really co-opt my handle? Wow
1:40
Comment From John Stamos
How often do chatters submit a picture of boobs just to make your day? Not often enough I’m guessing?
1:40
Dan Szymborski: None surprisingly
1:40
Comment From juan pierres mustache
iirc you gave up beer for a while. have you started drinking beer again and if so, has tolerance shifted dramatically?
1:40
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t tested it.
1:40
Dan Szymborski: I’ve lost 25 pounds since the 1st of January by not drinking
1:40
Dan Szymborski: Not exercising or eating healthier. Just beer.
1:41
Dan Szymborski: That I lost that much without beer is troubling in itself.
1:41
Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time to end the chat for the week.
1:42
Dan Szymborski: As usual, you can primarily find me at ESPN, chats and projections on FG, DSzymborski on Twitter, and whatever region of the world overweight nerdy writers are worshiped as gods among men.
1:42
Dan Szymborski: And Juan Pierre’s Mustache, I’m still mad that you dominated me as a pyro yesterday because my team’s goddamn pyro wouldn’t ever put me out.



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Dave is a co-founder of USSMariner.com and contributes to the Wall Street Journal.


3 Responses to “Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/13/13”

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  1. Zach says:

    Liriano, Kazmir, and Ubaldo J. Which one should i grab out of the three?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. yankeefan says:

    Whats with Brett Lawrie? When’s he coming out of his funk.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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