Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/6/13

11:58
Dan Szymborski: Szymborski ist angekommen. Zittern unter seiner nerdlichen Blick!
11:59
Comment From Guest
Soriano or Minor RoS for fantasy?
11:59
Dan Szymborski: Depends what you need, really.
11:59
Comment From Guest
Will Ian Kennedy rebound?
12:00
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but he’s more like 2012 and 2010 than 2011.
12:01
Comment From Mike
Marcell Ozuna have a good year?

12:01
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS already had him nearly a major leaguer despite little high level performance and he did nothing at AA that would make it downgrade him
12:02
Comment From Stinky cheese
What would you put the odds of Yu Darvish getting 300Ks this season at?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: That’s going to be tough. He probably needs to average 7 a start to hit 300 – he’s near his ceiling of what his K rate can be, so it’s not going to get better
12:03
Comment From Andrew
Just a bad start for Niese?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: Normally, I’d say “April” or “First Week of May” but the big uptick in walks is troubling.
12:03
Comment From jesse
do you need to Adjust zips(ros) now that Bucholz is throwing a spitter?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: I only know what I can prove.
12:04
Dan Szymborski: Until I have reason to believe otherwise, Clay Buchholz is guilty of one count of dirty forearm.
12:04
Comment From jeff
whats the deal with marco estrada? how much of his struggles can we pin on that larger-than-life hr/fb rate?
12:05
Dan Szymborski: Last time I checked, it was something crazy like 1-in-4 that won’t stay
12:05
Dan Szymborski: Though it’s not the ideal park for him.
12:05
Comment From Guest
Thoughts on Bryce Harper / umpire interaction?
12:05
Dan Szymborski: Bring on the robots.
12:06
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
thoughts on these guys off to rough starts?: Bonifacio, Vogelsong, Quentin
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Not super worried about Vogelsong yet, Bonifacio will be better, but not relaly all that good, Quentin will be fine, though I’m not a fan of him personally anymore
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Bonifacio, of course, is better in fantasy than real life
12:07
Comment From Doctor Met
This Hector Santiago guy have some sneaky JDLR type or even a meh Niese-esque year ahead of him?
12:08
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
is Kevin Slowey suddenly a must-own in a 15+ team mixed leauge?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: oops
12:08
Dan Szymborski: sorry
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Santiago’s stuff doesn’t blow you away, but results matter, too. ZiPS and Steamer both are way happier with him now
12:09
Dan Szymborski: As for Slowey, no. He’s an interesting flier, but you’ve almost certainly got the bulk of his 2013 value already
12:09
Comment From tylersnotes
the zips robot is always being accused of bias. perhaps it’s the perfect candidate to be the first robot umpire?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is too prone to anger.
12:10
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12:10
Comment From Ian
Frieri setting up when Madson returns? Kind of a similar dude to Kenley Jansen no?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: For one, I’m not going to believe in Madson’s return until I see it.
12:11
Dan Szymborski: But I think he’s going to have a harder time getting it back now.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Not a lot has gone right for the Angels this year, so they’re going to be less keen on tinkering. But a healthy Madson pitching well will be a threat if Frieri starts having walk issues.
12:12
Comment From Harjit
Thoughts on Jose Fernandez and Alex Cobb? Which would you hang on to?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Jose Fernandez, but only because you imposed such a cruel choice upon me.
12:12
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
do you buy the apparent gains Dee Gordon has made so far this season?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: A *little* more, but still not that excited.
12:13
Comment From jeff
will middlebrooks. is there a book out on him right now or just a slow start? im starting to worry he wont turn it around.
12:14
Dan Szymborski: People were mad at me about his projection going into the season (255/292/434), but that’s where I think he is.
12:14
Dan Szymborski: But he’s obviously better than he is – he doesn’t have a BABIP ability less than that of a pitcher
12:14
Comment From Guest
Manny Machado is really, really good
12:15
Dan Szymborski: As I said last weak, Machado is so good over there at third that you can’t help wonder if he’s an All-Star shortstop that the Orioles are playing out of position
12:15
Comment From Guest
Is there something wrong in Chicago? Neither the Cubs nor Sox seem to know what a walk is.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: All that califlower in the giardiniera makes them want to be nearer to the facilities when they’re not out on the field.
12:16
Comment From Jon
How much do you expect Starling Marte to come back to earth – or is his current level of play sustainable?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: His BABIP is like .400 which’ll come down. With a normal BABIP, he’s having more ofa 270/335/470 season, which seems like a more realistic level for a player with his ample, but sub-McCutchen abilities.
12:18
Comment From Mosey
Who now has the “ugliest player in baseball” title? Ben Molina or Corey Hart?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: As someone who was once described in an email as looking like a cross between Goering and Hitchens, I’m not comfortable making that judgment.
12:18
Comment From Matt
If you had to pick one to make the playoffs, which and why: Indians/White Sox
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Indians more interesting upside.
12:19
Comment From Rated Rookie
Two questions asking the same thing: how will Duda’s (new found) plate discipline work with/against the (manager’s) pressure of batting cleanup? Or, what do you think Duda’s end of season numbers will look like?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: He’s got a good cushion but I think he’ll still end up in 350/470 range.
12:20
Dan Szymborski: I think his walk rate will stay impressive. He’s not swinging at *anything* out of the strike zone
12:20
Comment From Guest
ahh here we go… Do you like Jesse Biddle as a long term Keeper and if so,when do you see him being a steady contributor.
12:21
Dan Szymborski: I do like him, and 2015ish. He’s a dude that looks like a solid pitcher, too
12:22
Comment From Guest
offensively, jean segura or starlin castro ROS?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: still castro
12:22
Comment From Andrew
As a Darvish owner last yr, I was skeptical that his control issues would just go poof for this yr. Am I stupid or will that regress?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know enough about you to tell you if you’re stupid.
12:23
Dan Szymborski: But I think you did miss something, which I spent all year arguing about last year
12:23
Dan Szymborski: Darvish was essentially a rookie and while NPB is slightly stronger than AAA
12:23
Dan Szymborski: It’s *different* than AAA because they offensive philosophies are slightly different over there.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: I probably talked about this in half my chats, but Darvish was in a league in which there’s less of that mindset about waiting for the pitch and accepting a walk
12:24
Comment From Bobby
Heyward still good for 20/20 when he returns?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: He’s going to fall short of 20 SB
12:25
Comment From Caught drinking the koolade
At this point, nearly 800 PA’s into his MLB career, should we just accept that is this who Brett Lawrie is – a .270 hitter who doesn’t walk with 20 HR/15 SB ability and a tremendous glove? Or is there still a lot of room to grow?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: Depends on his health. It’s hard to judge a guy who always has something wrong with him.
12:25
Comment From Harrisoned
ZiPS has Patrick Corbin posting a 4.10 ERA ROS – you taking the over or under on that?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: Under slightly.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: (as in ERA lower/better)
12:26
Comment From jesse
why isn’t Lou Whitaker in the HOF and why isn;t there more discussion of it?>
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Because the BBWAA does a monumentally shitballs job of voting in HoFers.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: The BBWAA voting record is the journalist equivalent of those dudes that rob a bank wearing their company uniform with their name embroidered on the front.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Todd Akin knows more about legitimate rape than the BBWAA knows about legitimate Hall of Famers.
12:27
Comment From Matt
Francisco Liriano makes his debut for the Pirates on Saturday. In the offseason, you were a big fan of the signing. Now that he’s here, do you still think he can be a difference maker?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Maybe a game or two, but that can be enough if the division stays close.
12:28
Dan Szymborski: But remember, I like Liriano more than most.
12:28
Comment From Ryan
I thought Manny Machado was going to hit a wall and have a “sophomore slump.” Guess I was wrong Dan?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Yes. Sophomore slump doesn’t really exist as its generally defined.
12:28
Dan Szymborski: A lot of it is the selection bias – a rookie is more likely to get a job when they’re overperforming.
12:29
Dan Szymborski: But Machado didn’t get his job on the basis of overperforming, but on Mark Reynolds being fawful at third.
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Now, is he a 300/350/500 guy now? Probably not, but he’s a good player.
12:29
Comment From Bart
Which one if any of these trades would you make, Hamilton for Choo, Kemp or Cespedes?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: All.
12:30
Comment From Timothy
What’s wrong with Medlen and is he going to be better?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: if you’re worried about a guy for having a <3.50 ERA after a month, you’re probably a bit spoiled by your team’s excellence!
12:31
Comment From Guest
Are the values in wOBA for 1b, 2b, 3b,… the same at every level? It just changes depending on the multiplier that adjusts for league, correct?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: Is FG adjusting for minor league? I didn’t think so
12:31
Comment From Joel
Wil Myers going to be a dud in 2013 eh?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: Why would you say that?
12:32
Comment From jeff
what is it about gio that’s got everybody so worried? is he injured?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: I’m not really too worried – he’s been a little unlucky with the HRs
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Though one of the walks coming back is a little worrisome, but sheesh, he’s had 6 or 7 starts
12:32
Comment From Eminor3rd
Do you follow the amateur draft at all? I’m finding myself getting more into it each year, wondering if you know of any good places to get pre-draft coverage. Google is turning up a lot of Bleacher Report
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Law, Sickels, BA, the BP and FG guys,e tc.
12:33
Comment From C
Jay Bruce: taking advice from Joey Votto? His LD% is over 30%. SSS or is there more there?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: He’s been hitting a lot of grounders, too. Not quite sure what’s wrong with him
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Bruce seems to be doing the crazy BABIP year all wrong. Who has by far their best BABIP in by far their worst season?
12:35
Comment From AJ
Arenado or Lawrie for fantasy – this season and career?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Lawrie this season, Lawrie career real life, Arenado fantasy real life
12:35
Comment From clay buchholz
guilty until proven innocent, eh?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Well, you’re guilty of dirty arm. More than that, I make no claim too
12:35
Comment From Ryan
I don’t think the Rex Brothers should qualify in the top five for WPA. You can’t add up Brother 1 and Brother 2′s WPA to get a grand total. Not cool.
12:36
Comment From Timothy
Who has more WAR at the end of the season: Heyward or Stanton?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Stanton
12:36
Comment From Guest
Which traditional rate stat corellates most strongly with runs scored? Also, is a team’s k rate strongly inversely proportional to runs scored?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: SLG actually does on the team level, but in part that’s because there’s more variance in team SLG
12:36
Dan Szymborski: a point of OBP is worth more than a point of SLG
12:37
Dan Szymborski: And once you look at coupled pairs with teams (Similar BA/OBP/SLG, differing strikeout rates) you see that strikeouts aren’t that big a deal
12:37
Dan Szymborski: *at the major league level*
12:38
Dan Szymborski: That’s important. Just because strikeouts aren’t a big deal at the MLB level doesn’t mean they aren’t at very low professional levels, college, high school, little league etc
12:38
Dan Szymborski: What’s the BABIP of an average litlte leaguer? .600?
12:38
Comment From Innerlewd
Arenado likes MLB so far
12:38
Dan Szymborski: So far so good
12:38
Comment From jeff
if i wanted to trade weaver in fantasy, what might a reasonable return be? would i have to limit my search to similarly broken players like adam dunn?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: I think you can get more than that.
12:38
Comment From jon
Do you have any reason to remain optimistic on Dickey? He seems to have more working against him (age, seemingly fluky success, greater effect of diminished velocity because he already throws slow) than your average slow starter.
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Not worried about the age, though I’m less optimistic
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Knuckleballers are their own mystery.
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Though I still support the trade and the idea of bringing him in. Failure is made of should haves, after all (bonus points to those that get that reference)
12:39
Comment From Guest
If a player has RoS projection that says he will hit 15 more HRs then hits two today, would his Ros be 13 or 15 still since one day shouldn’t make much of a difference?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: It would almost certainly still round to 15
12:40
Comment From jeff
stick a dick in forkey?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: heh
12:40
Comment From G-House
when will they start comparing Shelby Miller to Matt Harvey. Seems everyone is downplaying Millers success
12:40
Dan Szymborski: That’s because the Mets are kinda depressing outside of Harvey.
12:40
Comment From JEB
Dee Gordon has had a strong two games since returning, also his AAA numbers were great. Think he turned the corner, or is just lucky?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Little better. Not long enough to say more than that.
12:41
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Should expect Dunn to return to Dunn-esque levels for ROS?.220/.350 with 30 homers rest of way?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Increasingly negative.
12:41
Comment From Domo Arenado, Mr. Roboto
Man or machine?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Neither. I’m in favor of the ultimate melding of the two, Robert Cop.
12:42
Comment From Timothy
Do you ever check how accurate your pre-season ZiPs were at the end of the year?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Yes. Though public evaluations, I leave to others because I have a conflict of interest.
12:42
Comment From tylersnotes
does zips update to reflect in-season injury history? Does it know pujols is playing with an injury, for instance?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: No.
12:43
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Whom do you feel will have a better career: Appel or Jonathan Gray?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: I’m going to get in trouble for this, but I think Appel’s safer.
12:43
Comment From Fred
What’s your take on Cuban stats? Clay Davenport’s translations for Henry Urrutia make him look pretty insane….
12:43
Dan Szymborski: I’m not a fan of Cuban stats – I try to avoid translating as much as I can
12:43
Dan Szymborski: For a case like Cespedes, of course, I had no choice
12:43
Comment From Chris
Start Tepesch vs the Cubs and Marlins?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: I’m still not on the Tepesche Mode bandwagon, but he’s safer against those teams, especially the latter
12:44
Comment From 7x6x7
If you are Jon Daniels, what do you do with Profar — package him in a deal for Stanton, package him in a deal for Price, or put him at 2B next year and have Ian Kinsler play 1B or LF?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: I think at this point, you have to seriously explore a trade unless the value you can get is worth it.
12:44
Dan Szymborski: Real challenge trades, like Profar/Taveras, are quite rare
12:45
Comment From jesse
since 1968 the top 11 single season k% leader are all occupied by Pedro and Johnson and one year by Kerry Wood, do you think Darvsih can crack that list
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:45
Comment From Doctor Met
wouldn’t it be cool if the CIL interface auto linked any players name mentioned in chat to the fangraphs profile?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I’m no programmer
12:45
Comment From Innerlewd
Josh Rutledge has two more walks in his first 115PA as he did in almost 300 last year, is this Wiess? His overall approach seems a lot more restrained.
12:46
Dan Szymborski: He *has* swung less, but I really couldn’t tell you why.
12:46
Dan Szymborski: (and this is one of the cases in which I just don’t know, not one of those cases in which I do know, but can’t talk about)
12:46
Comment From Christian
trout 2013 MVP?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: Ain’t off the table
12:47
Comment From Bert
I broke down and shipped Kemp and Lincecum away for Cespedes and Zobrist. Good move?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Very reasonable, especially in a league in which Zorilla has lots of position qualification
12:48
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Arenado’s upside (considering Coors of course): .300/.360/.520 with 30 homers?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Well, he could have a season with *better* numbers than that in his upside, but it’s not a bad guess for upside “true level”
12:48
Comment From John
Who wins: Allen Craig for Chris Sale?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Cards
12:49
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
How much longer does League pitch the ninth with a lead of 1, 2, or 3 runs?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Hard to tell. I wouldn’t have started him off, but Dodgers gotta be Dodgers.
12:49
Comment From Guest
Dale Sveum recently claimed the Cody Ransom / Luis Valbuena combo at 3B for the Cubs was the most productive in baseball. Thoughts on either’s long-term value, esp. Valbuena?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Valbuena useful stopgap role guy. Cody Ransom fringy. Sveum was just being nice.
12:51
Dan Szymborski: On the other hand, if you saw Ian Stewart last year, you’d think Valbuena and Ransom were genetically cloned from Mike Schmidt
12:51
Comment From Larry
I just dropped Trevor Plouffe for Mike Moustakas. Good move?
12:51
Dan Szymborski: I rather have Moustakas
12:51
Comment From Chris
How many PA’s do you need before you conclude the hitter is what he is. Brandon Belt nearing 800…
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Can’t really make a simple answer to that.
12:52
Comment From V
What has the Dodgers done to the Baseball Gods to invoke their wrath? Now I know how Jays fans felt last year with half their team on the DL…….
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Signing 17 starters is hubris. The Gods punish hubris. Well, mostly, I think Brown Sugar Cinnamon Pop Tart Man rewards a balanced breakfast.
12:52
Comment From Timothy
What can we expect from McCann? Will he be able to match Gattis’ performance so far (not saying that Gattis will be able to keep it up)?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: I’m still cautiously optimistic about McCann, but injuries be tricky
12:53
Comment From Tom
Which LA team is in more trouble?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Dodgers, I think. OK, Dodgers are closer to playoffs, but Angels are a better team, I feel
12:54
Comment From Ryan
Is this the real Phil Hughes? In a walk year, he looks FANTASTIC!
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Don’t know if he’s *this* good. He hasn’t had his 6 week stretch of an ERA of 8 that he likes to have
12:54
Comment From Timothy
I guess you want variety, but do you care if I only ask questions about my team?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: I don’t even look at the names until I go.
12:54
Dan Szymborski: err until I answer them.
12:54
Dan Szymborski: I get a lot of questions and can’t come close to answering them all.
12:54
Dan Szymborski: I try too, but then I fall half an hour behind.
12:54
Dan Szymborski: I try to
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Still beats those ESPN chats, but there I don’t even try to answer them all.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: One of the chats I did last year with Bowden and Schoenfield, we had 19,000 submitted questions.
12:55
Comment From Chris
Edinson walks AND K’s way down… no real change in Pitch/FX. Reasons?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: The crap he’s throwing has been easy to hit
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Lemme pull him up, I bet a shasta his contact numbers are way up
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Yup, 82%. His saving grace used to be he was harder to hit than average
12:57
Comment From BassmanUW
300 Ks in a season, presuming Darvish gets 33 starts, is 9.1 Ks per start. If he gets 32 starts it’s 9.38 Ks per start. He is currently on pace for 300 at either 32 or 33 starts at 10.38 Ks/per start, but he’d need to be well above 8 Ks per start for the rest of the season to reach 300 Ks.
12:57
Comment From David
Ryan Madson is a unicorn until proven otherwise…
12:57
Comment From Chris
RE Machado – Trout and Harper spoiled us to what a real burgeoning 20 year old superstar season should look like
12:57
Comment From Harjit
I apologize for that choice. I am just preparing for the inevitable having to cut someone when Weaver returns. Although I guess Ogando could go instead..
12:58
Comment From Harjit
clarifying question, are we allowed to ask fantasy advice?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Yes.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: But I try to answer a wide variety of questions. I’m known as a generalist.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: And I don’t go nuts with the fantasy questions, simply because they’re usually very personal questions and they can bog down the chat very easily
12:59
Dan Szymborski: “Can Mark Thurmond make a comeback and help the Orioles” is a more interesting question for the readers than “Can Mark Thurmond make a comeback and help my fantasy team”
1:00
Dan Szymborski: And, of course, there *are* dedicated fantasy *specialists* who do answer these questions, so it’s kind of a waste to ask me.
1:00
Comment From Vern
Does Carlos Gomez breakout this year? .280 25hr 35sb? Feel he should get moved up from the 6/7 spot in lineup.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: He’s not going to stay at .360, but he’s definitely making a strong case for the power increase being real.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Who would’ve thought? Years after that trade, Carlos Gomez *is* a better player than Johan Santana.
1:01
Comment From Bkgeneral
The saying is one man’s trash is another man’s treasure. Do you think Dodgers and Blue Jays agree with this? Or is trash just trash?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: A=A. 8th grade math should tell you that
1:01
Comment From Kyle
Is it such a bad thing that Machado is playing third? It’s rated as the 2nd most important defensive position, and it’s not like Hardy isn’t a great defensive SS. If they had some better bat to put at third it might be a waste of resources, but they dont
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Nobody force the O’s to do jack-shit over the offseason.
1:02
Comment From Seth
do you think manny machado or brett lawrie end up having better careers?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Machado I think. But I’m a Lawrie fan.
1:02
Comment From Nigel Wilson
Best pick in the ’93 Expansion draft, other than myself.
1:03
Dan Szymborski: Well, Trevor Hoffman worked out nicely, even if a different team got the benefits in the end
1:04
Dan Szymborski: But just to be different, I’ll say it was Glad Rapp
1:04
Comment From Timothy
How many people are in chat?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Here, between 400-800 at a time.
1:04
Comment From Ozzie
hi dan, do you think that mike morse will exceed his 2013 projection?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Well, he’s strongly favored to now.
1:05
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
If healthy, C. Santana has an MVP chance, no?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: He deserves one, though the media never seems to be all that interested in him
1:06
Comment From Querulous Racqueteer
What kind of racquet is Carson Cistulli holding in his Wikipedia picture?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: squash?
1:06
Comment From BlueJaysFan1
Blue Jays. Help.
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Help computer. Stop all the downloading.
1:06
Comment From Robot Ump
Concerned about Dylan Bundy? Can’t help but think he’s about 4 or 5 weeks from TJ surgery
1:06
Dan Szymborski: DONT SAY THAT
1:06
Dan Szymborski: BRING BACK THE HUMAN UMPS
1:06
Comment From Timothy
How horrific a fielder would a player need to be before positional adjustment to DH wouldn’t hurt their value?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Pretty bad, but I think people underestimate DH – players actually hit worse as a DH than they do in the field
1:08
Comment From thor
what do you think of joey gallo’s rediculous batting stats this season?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Matt Raleigh: The Next Generation
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Lowest ranking TV show ever.
1:08
Comment From Doctor Met
Gonna coin Marcell “Yok” Ozuna’s nickname now. Can we expect a viciedo 2012 type of year for him? Hacker but with power.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Not the worst comp I’ve ever heard
1:09
Comment From Bret
The BABIP might be a bit high, but Jason Bay’s been decent for Seattle at the plate. Think there’s a chance of an actual modest bounceback to a ~2 WAR player?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: He could, but again, very limited time
1:09
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
When someone says, “player x’s five-most statistically similar comps are..” do you just roll your eyes?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Depends on the context.
1:09
Comment From jesse
if Tamps Fails to dig themselves out of the hole is there a chance Myers sees less than 100 PAs this year?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: No, I think he’ll be up.
1:10
Comment From Nick
Any concerns over Darvish’s drastic increase of slider usage? 2012: 14.3% 2013: 31.5%
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Not overworried
1:10
Dan Szymborski: At least more than usual. You should worry about all pitchers all the time.
1:10
Dan Szymborski: You know what injures pitchers? Pitching. You know how to reduce pitcher injuries? Make them into outfielders
1:10
Comment From Aaron
Talk some sense into Braves fans. McCann should be the starter, while working Gattis in as backup, PH, spot start at 1B, right?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Gattis would be a pretty sweet super sub
1:10
Comment From Stan
Well, Mark Reynolds is blind. It’s not his fault.
1:10
Comment From sad deepleaguer
Which 28-year-old pseudo-backup is more likely to have a good year… Carlos Corporan or Jose Lobaton?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Both are actually kinda interesting as they got the hang of the minors in recent years
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Wasn’t Corporan a magic spell in Ultima Online?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Corporan was part of the Brewers system when they were collecting players that sounded like Harry Potter characters.
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Carlos Corporan! Callix Crabbe! Kennard Bibbs!
1:13
Comment From Ray
Will Jarrod Parker get things together?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: y
1:13
Comment From Guest
Chris Carter good for 30 HR this year?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: He’ll threaten it at least
1:13
Comment From Ryan
Question about your comment about the O’s possible having Macahdo at the wrong position. If he is an elite defensive option at 3rd now, as Hardy is an elite option at SS, what do they have to lose? Who knows how Hardy would perform at 2B or 3rd if he switched? They are just keeping their options open so they can be flexible with their Hardy plan when he is a FA.
1:14
Dan Szymborski: If they were just being flexible, Showalter wouldn’t have announced that Machado wouldn’t even backup Hardy at short.
1:14
Dan Szymborski: And going “who knows” when moving an elite SS to 2B is just kind of lazy.
1:15
Dan Szymborski: “Yeah, Giancarlo Stanton’s a good hitter in the NL, but who knows what he would do in the AL?”
1:15
Comment From Guest
Carlos Gomez good for 25hr, 40steals?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he hits 40 steals
1:16
Dan Szymborski: And 25 HR still aggressive
1:16
Dan Szymborski: but 25/40 is a lot less ridiculous than it would have sounded a couple years ago
1:16
Comment From Andrew
Gyorko heating up? Where do you see him ROS?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: I told you guys Gyorko would be fine.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Remember.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: April.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: My gut though his projections were pretty adequate.
1:16
Comment From Boof Bonser
Scott Kazmir looked a lot better in his past start… fastball had more velo and he seems to be over his control problems. Do you like him this year more than the pitcher formerly known as Fausto?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: I like Kaz’s upside better than Fauxsto’s
1:17
Comment From jesse
Iron Man3, hase has already grossed 680million – Robert Downey Jr made 50 million and he’s probably underpaid….
1:17
Comment From Ralph
Will we ever see rookie season Eric Hosmer again?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Depends on your stance on eternalism
1:19
Dan Szymborski: There’s also some special relativity issues.
1:20
Comment From Gson
Should Indians fans resign themselves to that which is evident: The Tigers are too good and the rest of the AL Central beats each other up too much to earn a WC?
1:20
Dan Szymborski: The Tigers aren’t *too* good – no team is invincible
1:20
Comment From Boof Bonser
Is Darvish going to overtake Verlander as the best pitcher in baseball by the end of this year?
1:20
Dan Szymborski: One game, Darvish is the AL pitcher I’d least like to face in 2013
1:20
Comment From Chris
Charles Barkley says there are no sophomore slumps, its just that everyone know who the hell you are now.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: OK, getting near 120 so I’m declaring lightning round
1:21
Dan Szymborski: Which means I’m going to race through the questions that I can answer quickly, plus any off-topic ones.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: And if you complain, you agree to allow me the option to electrocute you.
1:21
Comment From Derek
What is meant when someone says that a rate has stabilized?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Reached a sample size at which the new performance has as much predictive value as league-average
1:22
Comment From Paul
Can Mark Thurmond make a comeback and help the Orioles?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: No. Astros, maybe.
1:22
Comment From Kyle
better end of season numbers : Ike Davis or Adam Laroche
1:22
Dan Szymborski: I sorta like Ike.
1:22
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
Dan gives decent fantasy advice if you phrase your questions something like ‘what do you think of player X’s fast/slow start” or “do you think Player Y can keep up the K rate given his swSTR% gains”
1:22
Comment From MooCow
Is Pujols done being a top tier 1b?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:22
Comment From Maxamuz
ROS: Cobb or Slowey?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Cobb
1:22
Comment From The other Kyle
Any chance Matt Adams winds up with a full-time job, even next year? And how would it happen?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Hope so. Decent.
1:22
Comment From Archer
Thoughts on the Braves impending roster problems with McCann, and then Heyward returning shortly after? Pretty much confirmed they’ll carry 3 catchers, would you look to trade Reed Johnson or release Schafer (out of options) when Heyward comes back?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: They can axe either without any second thoughts
1:23
Comment From David Nied
Hey Nigel, f*** you!
1:23
Comment From philosofool
Could we improve Josh Hamilton simply by tossing a coin three times before every pitch and telling him to take no matter what if we got three heads?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: No because he’d swing at hte coin
1:23
Comment From Three Fingers Stump
What do you think the next contract for Miggy looks like?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Commas. Zeroes.
1:23
Comment From 7x6x7
Better career — Machado or Profar?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Machado
1:24
Comment From Andrew
Despite it providing piece of doodoo content, is Bleacher Report a decent place to try to start a sports writing career?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Like most places, they have good writers and bad writers.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: They slideshows *do* annoy me, but that’s a taste thing
1:24
Dan Szymborski: It’s not a bad place to stick in your toe.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: But in fairness, I came up “through the ranks” at a much easier time
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Pretty much everybody who posted to rec.sport.baseball in 1996 who wanted a job in baseball/media has one.
1:25
Comment From Archer
Should the O’s never draft another pitcher EVER AGAIN?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: No
1:25
Comment From JEB
PORKCHOP SANDWICHES!
1:25
Comment From Kyle
can the Os make the playoffs with this pitching?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Possible
1:25
Comment From Grand Admiral Q
Dropped W. Myers in non-keeper. Not a huge deal?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Non-keeper, not as big a deal
1:25
Comment From Terrible Ted
What have the Indians done with the real Ryan Raburn?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Ryan Raburn doesn’t have average seasons, just comically bad and ridiculously good oens
1:26
Comment From Vern
Does Curtis Granderson hit for a better average than the .232 he put up last year?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Possibly – his BA will stay low
1:26
Comment From Archer
Which MLB player most closely resembles TF2′s Scout?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Justin sellers
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Though no Boston accent
1:26
Comment From 7x6x7
Raleigh was 23 when he was destroying low-A. Gallo is 19.
1:26
Dan Szymborski: I’m talking more skillset
1:27
Comment From Andrew
What would be your reaction if Iron Man 4 starred Cal Ripken?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Kevin Costner’s going to throw a chair!
1:27
Comment From clay buchholz
How about one game for NL pitcher? Stras? Waino?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: This minute, I’d take Wainwright, but overall, probably kershaw still.
1:27
Comment From Neil
Has there been anything done on how pitchers perform in innings after their team spends a long time at the plate? Does sitting for an unusually long period of time actually impact performance?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Not that I’m aware of.
1:27
Comment From The Oberamtmann
How long does the Vernon Wells show last, now that he’s slowing down?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: One could argue that he used up so much suck the last few years that he *has* to be plumb out.
1:28
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
Ever play Dark Souls?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: No, actually
1:28
Dan Szymborski: My sister’s boyfriend loves it
1:28
Comment From Tom
Cards and Reds well above the rest of the NL Central?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Depends well above.
1:28
Comment From Steve
Have you even done a chat, or part of a chat, while pooping?
1:29
Dan Szymborski: I like to leave the thought of horror in the back of reader’s minds rather than confirm or deny
1:29
Comment From sea salt
is kendrick the ace of Philly’s staff? (the answer is yes)
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Ouch
1:29
Comment From Seth
tell me how awesome jose fernandez is. please. is he mumford, arcade fire, or like, the lumineers.
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Arcade Fire
1:29
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
Lightning bolts or fireballs?
1:31
Dan Szymborski: E. Honda belly flop ftw
1:31
Comment From Officer Ramathorn
Real nerds know fireballs do more damage
1:31
Comment From Kyle
Woah. You gave more pause to Machado having a better career than Lawrie than you did him having a better career than Profar
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Don’t read too much, I gave a quick answer!
1:31
Comment From Lovely Rita
I just woke up, and I dreamt I was being paid to get drunk and record my thoughts. Is that easier or harder than being a baseball writer?
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Equal to.
1:31
Comment From Adam
You buying Pineda with reports of 95mph?
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Did he specify MPH? Could have been kph.
1:31
Comment From Kyle
If Jose Fernandez is Arcade Fire, his rookie season is going to be amazing. Funeral is better than anything mumford or lumineers has ever or will ever make
1:32
Comment From Seth
Do you think the Arcade fire are bigger and better than Mumford? So essentially the best AND biggest band going?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: I still like Decemberists/New Pornographers better though.
1:32
Comment From Tom
Have you played the new Starcraft game yet?
1:32
Comment From Larry David
Mumford is so overrated it hurts.
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Not really into Starcraft
1:32
Comment From Michael
At Bonnaroo 2011 I saw The Decemberists, My Morning Jacket, and Arcade Fire back to back to back in one spot, one stage. Best night ever.
1:33
Dan Szymborski: That was a pretty badass night.
1:33
Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to log off for the week.
1:33
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming all, hope to see you next week, I hope!
1:34
Dan Szymborski: As usual, you can find me at ESPN, chats and projections on FG, DSzymborski on Twitter (and Steam!) and various bars in Southwest Ohio.



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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.


2 Responses to “Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/6/13”

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  1. FC says:

    Do you like Biddle as a long term keeper? if so when do you really think he will contribute? Thanks for your time

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. playingwithfire says:

    Boy do I miss BBTF’s Transaction Oracle…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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