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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/15/13

12:03
Dan Szymborski: Couple minutes late – was having issue with Cover it Live!
12:03
Dan Szymborski: Kept hanging on the login.
12:04
Comment From Dr. Met
At least you showed up, we’re still waiting for Ike to do the same this year…
12:04
Dan Szymborski: I’d feel better about having easily the closest projection to Ike’s line if it hadn’t still overrated him by about 250 points of OPS
12:04
Comment From Zach
I’m in a 12-team dynasty league. Each team has six minor league spots. I’m toast for the year. My biggest trade chip is a one-year contract with Jose Bautista that I don’t see myself resigning long term and I want young, controllable talent. I’ve got a contender interested in him and he said anyone is on the table except Jose Fernandez, so that includes Jordan Zimmerman, Matt Moore, Patrick Corbinm Arenado, Jorge Soler, and Jackie Bradley. What do you think would be a reasonable asking price for Bautista using those guys? Sorry for the fantasy question.
12:05
Dan Szymborski: I’d probably *try* to get Zimmerman + one of the prospects, but I might have to settle for less.

12:06
Dan Szymborski: Bautista *is* in his declining years and depending on rules for your league, will be less likely to grab 3B qualification every eyar
12:06
Comment From Alex
Who’s your pick tonight for the Home Run Derby?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Davis
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Though Cuddyer will probably hit 50 home runs because he’s not remotely one of the best HR hitters and reality has a sense of humor sometimes
12:08
Comment From Mark
Dan, what do you think of the following time-lines for prospect call-ups:
12:08
Dan Szymborski: isn’t there a rest of the q? I can’t do two parters are there are far too many comments a minute!
12:09
Comment From Steve
Why does Puig remind me of Sosa in body type?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: he doesn’t remind me of a very young sosa
12:10
Dan Szymborski: Sosa was 4-5 inches shorter and was pretty shrimpy when he debuted
12:10
Comment From Rated Rookie
Chris Archer: command issues (mostly) behind him or Astros-generated pitching mirage?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t bring out the bubbly yet – his last starts were, if memory serves, Astros and Twins
12:11
Comment From Baron Von Waffles
Is Ian Kennedy broken beyond repair? It seems he has lost his out pitch.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say to that degree, but you should be alarmed.
12:12
Comment From Cal Guy
How would you compare Bogaerts and Correa at the same stage in their development?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: In what specific way? Neither is disabusing people of the notion they’re awesome prospects, though Bogaerts has more developed power and Correa’s got more of a line drivey swing
12:13
Comment From Alex
Lost Ben Revere over the weekend… Worth a roster stash with my only 2 DL spots taken up? Also, who can you recommend from the potential waiver wire that can produce similar steals/avg.? Thoughts on Mayberry as a replacement?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, not really. Revere’s not good enough to stash really – you’ve never gotten much benefit from his defense and given a broken foot, he’s probalby nto going to come back and and get you over the top in SB
12:15
Dan Szymborski: and without the SB or any credit for his D in fantasy, he’s a .300 OF with no power, no RBI, and R limited thanks to a crappy offense
12:15
Comment From Furman
Any comments on the KFFL story about a possible 150 game suspension for Arod?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: It’s preposterous. Not necessarily the story itself, but the possibility of a 150 game suspension.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Don’t you love how MLB can’t keep anything they’re required to hold confidential a secret for more than 15 minutes?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: And how they leak these feel-bad stories at the right time to overshadow feel good stories?
12:17
Comment From Dr. Met
Btw as an aside, I live in NY and love baseball and finally the ASG is at Citi field. Problem is I am just NOT feeling any urge to even try to attend any of the events. I believe my Mets have bled their depression over to me.
12:17
Dan Szymborski: It can happen.
12:17
Dan Szymborski: It didn’t really happen to me when the O’s were bad, but it did make me less interested in O’s specific events (and more interested in other stuff)
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, of all of baseball’s special events, I find the All-Star Game itself to be about the least interesting one.
12:18
Dan Szymborski: It’s never played like a real game after all, but more like a Very Special Episode of an 80s sitcom in which some B-list celebrities show up.
12:19
Dan Szymborski: All it’s missing is having Sugar Ray Leonard come in and give advice to Mike Trout, who was tricked into smoking by older, bigger players.
12:19
Comment From Pete
Who is your NL MVP right now?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Carlos Gomez. Which would sound really funny 2 years ago.
12:19
Comment From Tom
Could you see the Dodgers listening on Ervin Santana if Coletti thinks they need SP help (and the Royals shop him, of course)? Or do you think they’re going to stick with Fife as the #4-ish SP?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: I kind of suspect the Royals hang onto him.
12:20
Dan Szymborski: Because, after all, cashing in on him at the height of his value in a season going nowhere would be the smart thing to do.
12:20
Comment From Chicago Mark
How much does camera placement effect pitch fx data? Are the cameras in different locations at each ballpark?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: As long as the cameras are calibrated correctly, it’ shoudln’t be an issue.
12:22
Dan Szymborski: At this point, it’s not even a crazy technological feat. Tech moves quickly.
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Hell, at this point, we could probably construct a robot as terrible as Angel Hernandez or as smug as Ruben Amaro Jr.
12:23
Comment From Kevin
Neil Walker worth holding onto over BJ Upton? OBP league. My DL has room for only one of the two.
12:23
Dan Szymborski: I’d probably keep Walker. He usually has a solid OBP for a 2B and while he’s not great shakes, getting a 2B/3B in-season can be really ugly
12:23
Comment From Steve
Home run derby and slam dunk contest ……yawn!
12:24
Dan Szymborski: At least the HR Derby is actually different, not a regular game played like a cameo-filled exhibition
12:24
Comment From bdhudson
AL is the underdog tomorrow night – I’m not sure I agree. Thoughts? (I realize predicting that game is pointless, but it’s Monday and work is slow)
12:25
Dan Szymborski: They’re very close. Not a game I’d bet on, especially given how wacky the player usage tends to be.
12:25
Comment From TJ
Dan, I have a dilemma. I just found out that Europa Universalis exists from one of your recent chats and NOW I MUST PLAY IT. But I have a non-sit-at-the-computer-for-hours-at-night-friendly girlfriend.
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Once you play Europa Universalis/Crusader Kings games, your relationship with your girlfriend will be tenuous at best.
12:26
Dan Szymborski: and once you consider EU4 comes out next month and there’s a great game of thrones mod for CK2, you will have some very lonely nights.
12:26
Comment From Chicago Mark
Harvey named NL starter tomorrow. Like?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Yeah. Seeing new stars like Harvey is the most interesting part of the game.
12:27
Comment From Chicago Mark
How close does Davis get to 60?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll pass 50, but won’t come close to 60.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Though based on my preseason projection, that means Davis will end up with 83 homers.
12:27
Comment From Mark
Dan, do you see any top hitting prospects (Castellanos, Springer, Hamilton, etc.) coming up before the end of the minor league season at this point?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Castellanos should have been up already. Springer will make an appearance after the season ends — the Astros aren’t in a position in which they need to fast-track him to the extent that he doesn’t get a couple of months at AAA.
12:30
Dan Szymborski: If Billy Hamilton gets playing time in the majors, it’ll only be as a reserve after the season. He’s been terrible this year.
12:30
Comment From Baron Von Waffles
Where do you see Didi settling at as a hitter?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: Strikes me as a 320/400 guy or thereabouts.
12:31
Dan Szymborski: He was really underrated going into the season. Yeah, his AAA numbers sucked last year, but bad BABIP years happen in the minors too and there was no way he was a .260 BABIP AAA hitter.
12:31
Comment From Zach
My money’s on Pedro Alvarez, and not just saying that because I’m a Pirates fan. A dude like him is built for this contest.
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it favors those swing from heels guys – nobody’s going to throw him a nasty curve.
12:32
Comment From saskatunes
You mean Ike Davis for your derby pick right?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: heh.
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Wait, Chris Davis is on the roster isn’t he?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Am I mistaken?
12:32
Comment From Chicago Mark
How close does Miggy get to 3 crown?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: He’ll get RBI and BA again, but I think he needs a Davis injury to get HR.
12:33
Comment From Wild Bill
In fourth in my h2h league (top four closely bunched) and think I’m an ace away from winning it. My OF (we start 5) is loaded and I’m thinking of offering someone up for an ace. Who from this list should I shop and what can I expect in return? Trout, Harper, Chris Davis, Puig, Eaton, C Crawford, and L Martin.
12:33
Dan Szymborski: I’d probably see if I can get someone to overpay for Puig and/or Martin
12:33
Comment From AJT
Looking at getting much during the steam summer sale?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Probably, but I’m terrible at planning my game purchases.
12:34
Dan Szymborski: and very easily tricked into giving Valve money so I can get keys to open up crates and get hats.
12:34
Comment From Furman
Are Ackley’s days as a 2B behind him? I drafted him in a DMB dynasty league and I am willing to sit on him with the hopes of having a league average bat with good D at 2B, but looking more like that’s never going to happen.
12:35
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go that far yet – I still think the M’s are testing the flexibility of Ackley more than setting a change in stone.
12:35
Dan Szymborski: D-Cam might have a better feel for what they’re doing
12:35
Comment From Rob
Who would you put in the derby if you were only told to select guys with major power, other tools or MLB experience be damned?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: This year, I’d just put Davis vs. Cabrera, the Duel to End All Duels.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: ANd make up some new HR Derby parts, like precision HR hitting.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Or a ptiching machine throwing baseballs at 120 – THE EXTREME HOME RUN DERBY MEGA CHALLENGE
12:36
Comment From bdhudson
How did you end up doing what you do?
12:37
Dan Szymborski: Strangely, be being a loudmouth baseball nerd in the mid-90s.
12:37
Dan Szymborski: The fates were kind to those of us that argued baseball on usenet in that time frame.
12:37
Dan Szymborski: Law, Huckabay, Kahrl, McCracken, Forman, etc.
12:39
Dan Szymborski: They’re even some guys in media that you wouldn’t associate with baseball that were usenet baseball dorks – Jonathan Bernstein (WaPo) and Josh Kraushaar (National Journal)
12:39
Dan Szymborski: But anyway, a lot of us were in on the ground floor already when internet sports coverage took off.
12:40
Comment From Cal Guy
Desmond Jenning’s power is up and steals are down… what do you see him becoming, a 30-30, 20-20, or other type of player?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Maybe 20-30 – I don’t see him being a 30 HR guy
12:40
Comment From saskatunes
If you could invest money in a team, which would you pick? Let’s say like a 20 year window.
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Rangers or Astros.
12:41
Comment From Nick (not the one that called you a pussy last week, f*&% that guy)
ZiPS has Matt Harvey getting to 209 innings this year. How do you see the Mets handling him after the ASB? Will they Strasburg him?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’ll Strasburg him, but I think they’ll back off with him
12:41
Dan Szymborski: My only complaint about the Nats and Strasburg is I dont’ think they pulled him off the right way.
12:42
Dan Szymborski: If they wanted an inning count, I think it would have been better to simply back off more in games that got out of hand one way or the other early then completely shut him down
12:43
Comment From Scott
I can’t see anyway the Cubs make the playoffs until 2016. Even is some of them make the roster in 2015, they will need a year to two to adjust.
12:43
Dan Szymborski: Young teams can get better very quickly and 3 years is a long time.
12:43
Comment From Ryan
Allen Craig is a career .396 hitter with runners in scoring position, in about 350 such ABs. Amazing stat or the most amazing stat?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: Well, you expect *some* guys to hit that in 350 ABs.
12:44
Comment From Dayton in KC
I’m gonna blame this season on Ned, aren’t I?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Yup. Ned Yost is in a similar position to Vercingetorix. He’s defeated, but Dayton Moore’s going to hold off strangling him until the most beneficial time.
12:45
Comment From Harjit
Dan, I’m trying to get a stretch run starter from soemone out of contention, and trying to figure out a real price. 3-keeper league, is a 12th round pick in the next draft+Profar fair for going all in?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: With 3 keepers and you being in contention, you probably have enough front-end talent that you were going to have a tough decision with Profar anyway. Might as well push.
12:46
Comment From The Oriole Bird
Chris Tillman is an All-Star. A glitch in the matrix?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: I like Tillman, but there were better choices.
12:46
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
When evaluating young hitters (I was looking as Oswaldo Arcia). I’m never sure what to look at for advanced statistics. Do you have any recommendations? And is there a place on FG that lists tiers for stats? For instance 20% K rate is normal, 30% is a problem etc.
12:46
Dan Szymborski: I do not believe that FG has something like that.
12:46
Dan Szymborski: Always be careful – remember with advanced statistics, you’re going to deal with the same sample size issues for very young players
12:46
Comment From JEB
Yadier Molina. That is all.
12:47
Comment From Quiroc
Dan – should I be bullish on a big second half from V. Martinez? Last few weeks he’s looking like 2011 vintage and seems due for even more accretion to the mean
12:48
Dan Szymborski: He’s shown some life lately, but I wouldn’t be bullish yet. I’d hope that someone else in my fantasy league is and try to get something for him.
12:48
Comment From The Oriole Bird
Am I the only one in this chat who doesn’t believe that the response “Somewhere in between [your extreme proposed values]” is not a “boring answer?” Do you think it’s boring because it is predictable? Maybe the questions that elicit such responses are boring!
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Probably. Predictable answers I find pretty boring.
12:49
Dan Szymborski: What do you think are getting more reads today? The columns TRAYVON MARTIN, GUNNED DOWN IN COLD BLOOD or GEORGE ZIMMERMAN, AMERICAN PATRIOT HERO or the ones giving adult, reasonable responses?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Oh god, I wish I hadn’t gone down that analogy.
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Chats work best when it’s lively. Moderate responses that are predictable are just kind of dull.
12:50
Comment From Bird
Kris Medlen: Is reality finally catching up or is he just going through a rough stretch?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: See? I think the answer is something in th emiddle!
12:50
Dan Szymborski: (Not to pick on you Bird, the answer really is somewhere in the middle)
12:50
Comment From God
Tell me something I don’t know!
12:50
Dan Szymborski: How to make Jeff Francoeur not suck.
12:50
Comment From Nick (not the one that called you a pussy last week, f*&% that guy)
Do you think biogenesis suspensions occur this year?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: I think MLB will try. That being said, MLB’s success rate in courts and arbitration is worse than Uwe Boll’s success rate at making taut, three-dimensional thrillers.
12:52
Comment From SEW
Someone asked Sullivan last week to name which of the following is more likely: Pujols to 100 WAR or Trout to 100 WAR. Thoughts? What would ZiPS say?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Pujols still.
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Let’s not forget, he was a solid-to-star player just last year.
12:53
Dan Szymborski: He just wasn’t PUJOLS
12:53
Comment From Kevin
Is a season and a half of bad too soon to be bailing on Lester?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Not to be bailing, but adjust expectations accordingly.
12:53
Comment From Chris
Whose gonna have a fantasy impact ROS Beachy or Cobb?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Cobb. Never pick the pitcher makign stats deemed rehab!
12:54
Comment From TJ
MLB was very clever to have it’s doldrums-esque All Star game when there is no alternative in Hockey or Basketball to watch.
12:54
Comment From G
Do you think the veto is ever acceptable in fantasy or non-fantasy trade situations short of collusion? Is a trade ever lop-sided enough to warrant that? Having read the series on vetoed trades, it seems it’s almost never clear-cut in hindsight.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Depends how close the people involved are – the less close, the more need for a process to void trades.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: All games have an element of trust in the players playign fair.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: If me and friends I’ve had for 20-25 years are doing something and there’s an argument over the rules, we have more basic trust that things are done by stupidity, nto malice.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: If you don’t have that bond, it’s better to just have a simple veto process and consider that simply one of the rules.
12:55
Comment From Dorn
Was just offered Fister and Medlen for Shark. I love having Shark’s Ks on my squad but I’m finding it hard to reject this, solely for the Wins it would give me. Thoughts?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: I love the Shark’s development into a Real Pitcher, but I’d have to go with the trade.
12:56
Comment From Zach
If you’re Neal Huntington, what 1-2 players do you acquire at the deadline? Does Jose Tabata’s decent play warrant not going after a RF upgrade or does his overall lack of health concern you?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Don’t punch me for this, but it’s a suitable opportunity to mention that I’m writing my fantasy NL trades in a piece for ESPN on Thursday.
12:56
Dan Szymborski: (And ZiPS midseason standings update and odds for Friday)
12:57
Comment From Earl of Pancake
Where does FG get its advanced stats for things like Bill Petti’s article today?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I can’t provide much in the way of FG behind the scenes.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Remember, I’m kind of an auxiliary member of FG. I’m a member of the community and I go back with Cammy to the days when we were both teenagers, but I’m primarily an ESPN employee who has been given some leeway to do things with FG.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: (This is more of a gneeral Q thans pecifically to you Earl, it’s just that I get a lot of questions about FG behind-the-scenes and FG policies that I’m just the wrong guy to answer)
12:58
Comment From The Oriole Bird
How many wins will Feldman be worth the rest of the season for the Orioles? 1.5 or so?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: That sounds about right. He’s a useful addition to a rotation that became too thin, but he’s not some ace to put the league in fear.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: He’s like Matt Clement is to the Red Sox this year.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: I MEAN RYAN DEMPSTER
12:59
Dan Szymborski: HTF did I do that?
12:59
Comment From Jason
What is a reasonable offer for Kimbrel? I’m 1st in a keeper league. Have surplus OFers (W. Myers, C. Crawford, De Aza, Gardner, Beltran and Pence). Closers are Reed, Parnell and K-Rod (Putz on bench). Also have Prado and Gyorko expendable.
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Honesetly, it’ll be tough. Even in a lesser year, he’s so good that his ERA and WHIP are low enough to actually be helpful in his limited IP. He’s such a step above any closer in expectations.
1:01
Comment From Cal Guy
Is Machado’s excellent play as a 3B making it less likely he will ever be a SS in the majors?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Sadly yes. But I’ve beaten this horse, turned it into ground beef, fed it to school children, ground up the children, and fed the children to horses, completing the circle of life.
1:02
Dan Szymborski: I want Machado to be a SS at the earlier possible convenience. I’ll hold off on new complaints unless/until the O’s say new things making me pessimistic or the O’s season ends.
1:02
Comment From Josef
Thanks for chatting, Dan! I love Stanton as much as the next guy, but do you think his injury history is overlooked more than it should?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: It’s only the last 1.5 years that it’s really been a huge problem, though he did have an offseason injury a few years ago too.
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Wouldn’t put him in the Eric Davis bucket yet.
1:04
Comment From bdhudson
MLB public relations – not stellar
1:04
Dan Szymborski: In the same vein that we’d say John Pope at Second Bull Run – not stellear.
1:04
Dan Szymborski: or stellar if we speleld it correctly
1:04
Dan Szymborski: dmamit
1:04
Comment From Guest
Is Arod going to get the Pete Rose treatment?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he gets into Hall of Fame, which is stupid.
1:05
Dan Szymborski: But he won’t get to be a cause celebré to some in the media
1:05
Comment From The Oriole Bird
What % chance do you give Machado of breaking the single-season doubles mark? I’d say 10% (Record is 67. Machado has 39 through 96 games. He has 66 games left.)
1:06
Dan Szymborski: I’d say lower. He’s already off the pace – it’s hard to catch a record from behind when you already need a historical pace to be on pace. If that makes sense.
1:07
Comment From Guest
If Sonny Gray’s over/under is Dan Straily, are you taking the over or the under?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Over. I like Straily, but Gray’s stuff has more life.
1:07
Comment From Guest
Prospect question: what’s the difference (in ceiling) between Trout, Buxton, & Yelich?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Well, Trout’s is the highest, simply because he’s already hit a superstar one
1:08
Comment From bdhudson
What special events do you find the most interesting?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: MLB Draft, minor league all-star games, futures game, world series
1:08
Dan Szymborski: winter meetings if that counts
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I’d like to see a skills competition at the AS game. Strongest throwing arm, races
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Maybe trying to bunt a ball onto a bullseye
1:09
Comment From Guest
Who is the first to get traded; David Price or Gian Carlo Stanton? What would it take to get either?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Stanton I think.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: The Marlins will demand — and get — some serious prospectage.
1:10
Comment From Ho Lee
Homer Bailey has a lower FIP and more innings pitched than Yu Darvish. Why does Darvish have a higher WAR?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Well, for one, FIP is not a park-neutral stat.
1:11
Comment From Nick (not the one that called you a pussy last week, f*&% that guy)
Why would MLB want to leak these feel-bad stories right before the All Star Game? They are having enough trouble getting people to care about these stale events.
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Going back to a comment someone above made – MLB BR – not stellar.
1:11
Comment From Wily Mo Yen Mo Problems
Will Matt Adams be a full-time starter next year and do you think he can develop into a 25-30 homer guy?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: I think he can develop into that, but I don’t think he’ll be a full-time starter. He needs some injuries to avoid being in the Allen Craig role for a few years.
1:11
Comment From Mark
Inter-league play has killed the ASG.
1:12
Dan Szymborski: See, it’s one of my feelings, but I don’t have much to back it up.
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Complicating things is that I was still a kid before interleague play and a jaded adult now. Some of that feeling could simply be I’m not an 11-year-old seeing Bo in the 1989 AS Game
1:12
Comment From Das Otter
I just custom built my gaming PC and through the work of a higher power, the Steam summer sale is going on now. What PC games do you recommend, from any category?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: More of a twitter q – I haven’t reviewed the details of the sale yet
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Now, the question I always ask people who built their PCs – did you make sure to get a proper power supply?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I’ve had to resist the temptation to beat up friends who have put together a $1500 PC and put in a $40 fly-by-night firecracker power supply.
1:14
Comment From Bkgeneral
Think the Nationals get the ship righted, and make playoffs?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll get the ship the right way, but the other ships have a pretty solid lead so it’s an uphill climb
1:14
Dan Szymborski: OH GOD THE MIXED METAPHORS
1:14
Comment From zack
Is Eric hosmer on roids? He seems to have somehow gained increased physical strength and hit for power.
1:15
Dan Szymborski: That was a MAKE ZIM ANGRY ZIM SMASH question!
1:15
Dan Szymborski: I’m not saying anything nice about Hosmer though, simply because it always jinxes him.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: For the record, my quest to help out Cards fans by saying nice things about Ty Wigginton so that he would be released worked out.
1:16
Comment From SEW
I’m interested in learning more about simulation leagues. Do participants draft teams and have a computer play the teams against each other a la Baseball Stars for NES (in which you could have computer play games)?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Simulation leagues generally use software that’s suitable for real simulation – like Diamond Mind and OOTP
1:16
Dan Szymborski: I deal more with Diamond Mind simply because there’s a ZiPS disk released for it everywhere and leagues out there that use the ZiPS disk as the basis for their league.
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Now, Baseball Stars is more amazing than sleeping with Monica Bellucci at the Super Bowl while Steve McQueen gives you high fives and the Decemberists are giving you a private concern in the background, but it’s not really a simulation game.
1:17
Comment From Guest
Do you think the mariners finish 3rd?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: No.
1:17
Comment From zack
Adam Dunn should be on the home run derby. The fact that he was an all star last year was a joke, but he belongs in New york
1:18
Dan Szymborski: Yeah. I think it should be the best skills guys.
1:18
Comment From Guest
Is jack z the Gm next seas?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: Yeah. I think he gets one more year.
1:18
Comment From Bastard of Mr. Met
Unthinking people say things like: “He’s good because he has a lot of RBIs” and “I buy mutual funds based on past performance.” Truth.
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Well, ti’s better than investing in mutual funds because they have a lot of RBIs
1:19
Dan Szymborski: OK a few more quickies and then I have to go
1:19
Dan Szymborski: So given that we’re in the LIGHTENING ROUND, get in the crazy/off-topic qs that you guys always sprinkle in too early in the chat
1:20
Dan Szymborski: and yes, I said LIGHTENING ROUND. It’s the round that lightens the mood.
1:20
Comment From Jeff
With that being said, who do you think will win the NL MVP? Top 3 WAR guys are Wright, Gomez and Gonzalez, whose teams will likely prevent them from winning. Seems like a good year for Yadier Molina to win, yes?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: I think that a Colorado/Arizona division win could get it for Cargo or Goldschmidt
1:21
Comment From zack
Is the NL east mediocre and injury plagued enough that the Phillies actually have a shot?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: They have a shot, but they’re pretty lousy themselves. I wouldn’t take the shot, I’d reload for the future.
1:21
Comment From Tom
Who are your ALCS and NLCS teams at the break?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Boston vs. Oakland, Detroit vs. Texas, Cardinals vs. Dodgers, Braves vs. Pirates
1:23
Comment From Guest
Mike Trout, quietly producing another big season?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Yup. True story, his OPS+ is now better than it was last year!
1:23
Comment From Alexander The Great
Is it wrong that I am developing sabermetrics for my adult softball league?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: It might not be as effective, simply because saber MLB stuff is directly applicable to that level of play
1:24
Comment From The Oriole Bird
My in-laws gave my newborn son a Red Sox onesie. How can I “repay” the favor?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Take the team that they hate the most and put a full page ad in the paper from them, wishing the team luck
1:25
Dan Szymborski: or write a creepy craiglist sex ad and give them your in-laws number.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: My best prank ever.
1:26
Dan Szymborski: On the anniversary of 9/11, my sister was at mom’s house.
1:26
Dan Szymborski: 2002
1:26
Dan Szymborski: So I went over there in the morning before she woke up (and mom was at work)
1:27
Dan Szymborski: I sent her an email with a fake CNN breaking news alert that Turkish seperatists had launched a missile strike against the United States.
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Then I disconnected the internet and hid her phone
1:28
Dan Szymborski: She woke up and after her shock of surprise that I could hear when she looked at her inbox
1:28
Dan Szymborski: I turned off the power to the house
1:28
Dan Szymborski: (I also removed a piece of the only radio so that she couldn’t get a connection)
1:28
Dan Szymborski: She thought we were at war with Turkey and civil society had broken down for about an hour until I let her in on the joke.
1:29
Dan Szymborski: (We play a lot of sibling pranks)
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Also, when she was 6, I told her a dildo was a french chocolate cake. The payoff being when she asked our grandmother for a dildo for her birthday (her grandmother had pastry training, so made amazing pastries and cakes)
1:29
Comment From Matthias
Do the ZiPS projections take ballpark handedness splits into account?
1:30
Dan Szymborski: Yes, but it’s conservative.
1:30
Comment From Die Hard
Would FG ever hire someone based on these chats? How does FG seek employee talent?
1:30
Dan Szymborski: Again, I hardly no!
1:30
Dan Szymborski: know
1:30
Dan Szymborski: What is it with the english language that is befuddling me today?
1:30
Comment From Dan
Should I keep Jim Johnson or move him? I’m getting scared.
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Always sell high on a second-tier closer when you have a chance. You may have missed your best window of opportunity
1:31
Comment From Guest
Borderlands 2
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Love it. If it’s on sale, you should purchase it.
1:31
Comment From Die Hard
how polluted with garbarge is your que right now?
1:31
Dan Szymborski: I always have a ton of questions in the queue. It’s a lost cause trying to answer a high percentage.
1:31
Dan Szymborski: I’d still be back at 12:15 or so.
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Still easier than the ESPN chats. I remember doing a Cover it Live there and we got like 40,000 questions.
1:32
Dan Szymborski: over 8 hours, but still, that was a crapload of Qs
1:32
Comment From NHarms
Does Braun get suspended this year? If yes, trade him for Dominic Brown?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: I’m not bullish on MLB’s odds of being successful.
1:32
Comment From Riley
I have had to delete all paradox games from my computer to protect myself … Someone has been pushing me to trade Heyward to them all season in a OBP league. Clearly wish I had accepted some of the early offers but didn’t. They just offered Garza and Rendon, for Heyward and Smyly, which I declined. For ROS only what do you think of getting Garza and either Eric Young or Austin Jackson for Heyward and Smyly?
1:33
Dan Szymborski: AJ yay, EY nay.
1:33
Comment From Descartes
I prefer to think to it as the Enlightening Round
1:33
Comment From Die Hard
Sam Millers chat on BP at 1:00 still hasnt started
1:33
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but you can’t trust those shifty west coasters to be prompt!
1:34
Comment From Dan
Vic Mackey or Stringer Bell – Who wins?
1:34
Dan Szymborski: I think Mackey. Stringer Bell was very smart, but he was also short-sighted in some ways and didn’t understand what was going on around him
1:34
Comment From Wild Bill
Who replaces Moore when he’s finally banished from KC?
1:35
Dan Szymborski: Knowing the Royals, they’ll probably bring in Chuck Lamar or Buzzie’s Idiot Son.
1:35
Comment From Bkgeneral
Cubs pull a shocker and deal the Shark instead of Garza?
1:35
Dan Szymborski: I think they hang onto Shark.
1:35
Comment From GSon
By claiming “you’d reload for the future..” you’ve sealed your fate as never every becoming a ML baseball General Manager…
1:35
Dan Szymborski: Being a GM is hard work!
1:35
Comment From JP
Old Bay for multiple usage, yea or nay?
1:36
Dan Szymborski: If you don’t have Old Bay, you’re a bad man who should live alone, marooned on a desert island, friendless and hopeless.
1:36
Dan Szymborski: It’s a great spice blend and necessary to have in order to not suck.
1:36
Dan Szymborski: Now, I would avoid using it on, say, cheesecake, but everything else is fair game.
1:36
Comment From Das Otter
750W 80 Plus:Gold PSU – I think I got the right power supply for the job. Basically the sale is 50% off of everything.
1:37
Dan Szymborski: Usually depends on the manufacturer – Seasonic, Antec, PC Power& Cooling, XFX, Corsair (most models), Antec, Rosewill (only capstone and fortress) are my usual go to recommendations
1:38
Dan Szymborski: Though Cooler Master has their first really really good power supplies out now, called the v series (manufactured by Seasonic)
1:38
Comment From Guest
There should be some research done about players who quit chewing numbers vs when they did ala J Hamilton
1:38
Dan Szymborski: I wish we had more data.
1:38
Comment From GSon
great..pranking the old folks.. what’s next in “This is your life” crapola today.. potty training?
1:38
Dan Szymborski: Old folks? I pranekd my little sister!
1:38
Comment From Sadwick
Dan Szymborski’s guide to being disowned by family.
1:38
Dan Szymborski: Actually, my sister and I are quite close.
1:38
Comment From Das Otter
I find it so funny when people drop $600 on a graphics card and then $40 on the power supply only to have the power supply poop out and fry their board. What gets you more angry? Cozart in the 2-hole or dim-witted friends skimping on a power-supply?
1:39
Dan Szymborski: Oh, dim-witted friends.
1:39
Dan Szymborski: Because I’m the one that ends up going into there and letting them know their motherboard is fried.
1:39
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have to fix Dusty Baker’s lineups
1:39
Comment From Preston
Who do you think is going to be the biggest name/best player to change uniforms at the deadline?
1:39
Dan Szymborski: Peavy, I think.
1:40
Comment From Guest
That Turkish-War Prank on your sister is some of the most elaborate, dark-humor, prank work I’ve ever heard of… I’d say I’m a little horrified, but I’m also a little amazed. In reality, I’m somewhere in the middle… FULL CIRCLE CHAT!
1:40
Comment From Old Bay Cheesecake
Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah
1:40
Comment From Das Otter
To minimize the amount of questions, pull some self-sabotage to lower the amount of people. Just lob some personal insults at people (not at me, of course). Problem solved.
1:41
Dan Szymborski: I hate you all! I hope to see you guys next week. Thanks for joining me and as always, you can find me doing various things for ESPN, FG for chats and projections, DSzymborski on Twitter.
1:41
Dan Szymborski: and, I guess, in my house and sometimes in my car.
1:41
Dan Szymborski: Gotta put on pants and go outside sometimes.
1:42
Comment From Maxamuz
1:42
Comment From Guest
You a fantasy football guy?
1:42
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, though @#%*@#&% Aaron Gleeman always wins our league.
1:42
Dan Szymborski: Seriously, Gleeman is a @#%%& amazing fantasy football player.
1:42
Comment From Sadwick
I was more referring to what those pranks would do to other families. My brother once threw a shoe at my head for making a bad pun at his expense. It put a hole in the wall. My parents would be fine, they would just get even, and I would be scared of how creative they would be. My brother would murder me in my sleep though.
1:43
Dan Szymborski: I guess to be fair, I should describe my sister’s best prank to me
1:43
Dan Szymborski: She got some custom printing done on a cardboard box
1:43
Dan Szymborski: To make it look like it was from NAMBLA
1:44
Dan Szymborski: Just put something inside to weigh it down and addressed it to me
1:44
Dan Szymborski: well, my name, but with the NEIGHBOR’s address
1:44
Dan Szymborski: so my next door neighbor at the time received a package for me that appeared to be from the North American Man-Boy Love Association
1:44
Dan Szymborski: I’m sure that guy still thinks I’m a child predator now.
1:45
Dan Szymborski: What can I say? We like to think up elaborate pranks.
1:45
Dan Szymborski: Though the ones we play on Mom are gentler.
1:46
Dan Szymborski: Like last year, we tricked mom into thinking I was at the hospital with my girlfriend because she got scratched badly by a lemur at the Cincinnati Zoo during a demonstration by the zookeepers
1:47
Dan Szymborski: Cya guys!