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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/22/13

Posted By Dave Cameron On July 22, 2013 @ 12:05 pm In Chat | No Comments

11:56
Dan Szymborski: If I was a jerk, I’d announce my arrival with the LOUDEST SOUND EFFECT EVER. I can totally gets dozens of people fired!
11:57
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11:57
Comment From zack
Man, how desperate are the giants if they are taking a chance on Francoeur?
11:58
Dan Szymborski: It’s not really so bad as long as you’re using him as a role player. The risk, of course, is that he starts off with his usual good month with new team and tricks Giants into signing him
11:58
Dan Szymborski: Francoeur’s essentially a no money down credit card.
11:58
Dan Szymborski: Err no interest

11:58
Comment From juan pierres mustache
jokes on you, guy, i already muted the chat
11:58
Comment From Izzy
Can you do a projection for the rest of Doc Gooden’s career based on his 84-85 seasons?
11:58
Dan Szymborski: I’ll put that on my to do list
11:58
Comment From Chris R
Is there any data backing up the claim that sinker-ballers do better when fatigued? Like is there more movement on pitch/fx or something along the lines of that? I’ve heard this for years.
11:59
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think anyone’s done research on this, but the internet’s bigger than in the old days
11:59
Comment From Steven
Thanks for chatting, Dan! What do you suppose is Dayton Moore’s spirit animal?
11:59
Dan Szymborski: Smallpox
11:59
Comment From bdhudson
Got this chat on mute suckaaaa
11:59
Comment From TJ
that’s why I mute FG chats dude
12:00
Dan Szymborski: That’s why I plan to drive to your offices next week and hoist a boombox over my head playing Milkshake
12:00
Comment From Izzy
Do you think there’s a solid case to be made that David Wright’s projection should be a bit better since he played the 2011 season hurt?
12:01
Dan Szymborski: Not necessarily – it’s not so simple.
12:01
Comment From F U Jobu
so, Jon Villar, the next victim @ ss for Houston? Is he worth a look or not?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be excited about him, but he *has* been solid in the minors, so why not give him a chance?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: But Houston has more motivation to throw shit at the wall and see what sticks than the typical fantasy player
12:03
Comment From Bret
Hi Daniel, why are the Toronto Blue Jays so bad?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: That’s pretty obvious – the pitching blows.
12:04
Dan Szymborski: When it’s 2013 and you’ve given like 10 starts to Chien-Ming Wang and Ramon Ortiz, you know something’s going terribly wrong.
12:04
Dan Szymborski: It’s like going outside and seeing hot dogs eating people and you realize that you’re the one that went down the wrong timeline
12:04
Comment From Wrestling Fan From Ohio
Will Daniel Bryan win the championship at Summerslam? And should I go if I now live in LA?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: Didn’t some guy leak like all of WWE’s PPV results?
12:05
Comment From zack
Brett Lawrie: Overrated to begin with, injury prone, or a combination of the two?
12:05
Dan Szymborski: He’s very talented, so I think more injuries.
12:05
Comment From zack
Bucholz is seeing Andrews because of shoulder issues: Done for the year>
12:06
Comment From Tomcat
As a Rockies Fan all I ever hear about is hitters splits, how come Chatwood (3.63ERA Home, 1.23ERA Road) and Chacin(4.48ERA Home, 1.90ERA Road) don’t get the same attention?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Not out of the question at all. Shoulders are yucky.
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Weird, I think something went down the rabit hoal.
12:06
Dan Szymborski: hole.
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Oops there it is.
12:07
Dan Szymborski: I just spelled hole “hoal.”
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Well, those splits are pretty small sample sizes – Coors pitchers, however, should be getting better attention generally
12:08
Comment From JonnyD
Lefties can get to 1st how much quicker then righties on average?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: I believe 0.15 secs of thereabouts
12:08
Comment From Dave
Any chance that the Pirates hitters RISP and pitchers RISP regresses at the same rate and they keep playing .600 ball?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: It could happen, but while they’re overwhelmingly likely to make the playoffs, I don’t expect .600 ball going forward
12:09
Comment From Douglas
If the Jays could dump RA Dickey and Mark Buehrle this offseason to a team that would pick up their salaries, should they do that and look for pitchers that better suit their ballpark?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: I think that’s a premature conclusion – I still think Dickey and Buehrle’s issues are more being generally lousy this year rather than specifically rogers lousy
12:10
Comment From LarryA
dont you find it a little wierd that Sveum keeps talking about who will replace Gregg as closer, when hes actually still on the team? What if the best offer the cubs get for Gregg is a bag of balls?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: They’ll get *something* for him. Not a great prospect or anything, but better than a bag of balls
12:11
Comment From saskatunes
Was pretty impressed with Derek Dietrich but he’s been sucking it up lately. Time for him to actually get some AAA seasoning? or will the fish keep him up with nothing (further) to lose?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: He’s no worse an option than anyone the marlins have – no harm in letting him work through a rough patch in the majors
12:12
Dan Szymborski: until it gets to the point that it becomes just sad, like ike’s year
12:12
Comment From Alex
Would you rather have Hanley or Carlos Gomez in real baseball? (sad that I have to make the distinction)
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Hanley probably. He’s still not a good SS, but he at least fakes the position
12:13
Comment From Mojo
Who do you prefer out of C Davis (for 10th round pick), Goldschmidt (10th) or Segura (25th) in terms of keeper value? 10 team league, standard 5×5 H2H. Can keep forever but with some inflation.
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Probably Segura
12:14
Comment From bdhudson
Only stupid people are giving Bedard crap for pulling himself from the no-no. Correct?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Given his injury history, yes. He was already at what, 110 pitches? It’s not like he was spinning some Madduxian masterpiece at that point
12:15
Comment From Bruce
What kind of a return would Cashman need to hypothtically trade Mariano? Would he turn down Puig?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Moot – No way Mariano accepts a trade.
12:15
Comment From bdhudson
Favorite ballpark to catch a game?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Camden
12:15
Comment From zack
Can you believe the lineups the Yankees have running out this year? Its like Cano, the 2005 all star team, and a AAA team combined.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: If I came out of a coma and saw a Yankees lineup, I’d assume that the MLBPA was on strike and Cano crossed lines to play with the replacement players
12:16
Comment From NED
In a league where waiver claims are not used often, do you think wily peralta is worthy of a number one waiver claim
12:17
Dan Szymborski: As always, it depends on what else is available. Though on a generic standpoint, I’m a Peralta fan
12:17
Comment From Giles
Rank My farm for me. Any guys your high on?… -A = Jorge Alfaro (Tex) C
-A = Adam Brett Walker (Min) OF
-A = Andrew Toles (TB) OF
-A = Tyrone Taylor (MIL) OF
+A = Mason Williams (NYY) OF
+A = Jorge Bonifacio (KC) OF
AA = Maxwell Muncy (Oak) 1B
AA = Stephen Piscotty (STL) OF
-A = Tyler Glasnow (Pit) SP
AA = Matt Wisler (SD) SP
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Ack, didn’t know this was going to be such a long question!
12:17
Dan Szymborski: I *am* a big fan of Glasnow
12:18
Dan Szymborski: and I’m still optimistic on Mason Williams turning it around
12:18
Comment From Bobo
What changes happen w/ the Angels if the Mariners finish w/ a better 2013 record?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: Scioscia lasts the season, but I think if the Angels finish 4th, Scioscia may end up getting his job back at the nuclear plant
12:20
Comment From Bret
Yeah, but like… weren’t those pitchers supposed to be kind of good? Even the healthy ones have been suck
12:20
Dan Szymborski: They were, but you don’t want to jump from observation A to conclusion too quickly
12:20
Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t necessarily mean that Rogers is the complicating factor
12:21
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Joe Mauer has 77 K’s this year. Adam Jones has 78….is Mauer’s sudden K spike being hidden by his elevated babip? Thoughts on Mauer’s dive in contact % this season?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: It’s higher, but that’s been a trend the last couple of years
12:23
Dan Szymborski: THis is one of those things I wish we had Mauer’s bat speed readily available somewhere
12:23
Comment From alex
is danny duffy worth stashing? Whats his timetable for his return to the majors?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: Again, it depends on who the alternatives are. I think he’ll pop back onto the roster during the homestretch
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Now, is he a must-stash type? Not really
12:24
Comment From Dave
Andrew McCutchen, great player or greatest player?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: greatester
12:24
Comment From 23553
Let’s not insult Ramon Ortiz, I saw him pitch eight and a third innings of no hit ball against the Cardinals in their 2006 WS season.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I’m pretty sure the Cardinals thought he had Imminent Death Syndrome and were just being nice
12:25
Comment From alex
I know d’arnaud was supposed to visit team doctors today? Any updates?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: No updates that I’ve heard about.
12:26
Comment From Captain Hook
Can you help me kidnap Brandon Inge?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: This sounds like the Least Popular Payday: The Heist DLC ever.
12:26
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Do you do TNA? Bully Ray was on such a great run, and the guy who beats him is Chris Sabin? What is this shit?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: I do enjoy TNA, but I’m really behind on my wrestling right now
12:27
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12:27
Comment From I am my players keeper
Should I look to trade Tillman on a keeper league or is his success sustainable in the long run?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a good 2/3 guy and I’d look to see someone who will pay as if he’s more
12:27
Comment From Anon21
If you’re the Braves, what the hell do you do with this weird season? They look poised to coast to an easy division win and then get immediately bounced from the postseason. What kinds of moves can they make to lessen the chances of losing the division series?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the Braves have a whole lot in the way of practical moves outside of depth adding
12:28
Comment From Rick Reilly Sucks
What is up with Kemp the guy cant stay healthy for friggin week
12:29
Dan Szymborski: There’s one guy who’s had his hitting regress more than amanda bynes’ sanity
12:29
Comment From Gson
Six game winning streak by the Mariners.. allusiary run to provide hope or reality comes crashing in with their next series?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Still a mediocre team. Don’t get tooe xcited
12:29
Comment From zack
Is good LIriano going to stick around all season?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Good, I think so. There was too much focus on his craptastic runners on numbers.
12:29
Comment From Philadelphia Collins
Who has more success next year, Phegley as the Chisox catcher or Miller as the Mariners shortstop?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll both be solid
12:30
Dan Szymborski: Phegley was kind of underrated – remember he dealt with a bone marrow disorder a few years ago
12:30
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Does ZiPS take into account the fact that Bartolo Colon is a a Dark Mage? His Armside run spell is the strongest in all of the land
12:31
Dan Szymborski: His WAR/body fat ratio is pretty low thougth
12:31
Comment From bdhudson
I actually have to do work today and can’t pay full attention to the chat at my job. This is a bummer.
12:32
Dan Szymborski: And I’m not even paying you as much as your boss!
12:32
Comment From Rick Reilly Sucks
If the oak were to trade for Utley how much better would that make them?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: He’d be a terrific addition, but remember it’s hard to add more than a win or two at this point in the season
12:32
Comment From zack
Is there any truth to the rumors that the cubs have been fielding offers for the Shark? Can’t imagine them trading him.
12:33
Dan Szymborski: They’ll probably listen — you should always listen — but I don’t expect him to go anywhere
12:33
Comment From zack
I hear AROD is in postseason form!!!
12:33
Comment From Oren
Why is Starlin Castro getting worse at baseball?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: That’s the great mystery.
12:33
Comment From Joseph
Currently through B-Ref, the fish are -0.6 oWAR and -0.1 in dWAR. Is it possible for them to finish negative in both categories?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Through lousiness, all things are possible.
12:34
Comment From Ray
What the hell is wrong with G. Stanton?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: He looks at the lineup and has wrongly assumed he’s in a spring training game.
12:34
Comment From JonnyD
Does that .15 secs advantage have any real impact?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: It’s not huge, but it helps.
12:34
Comment From zack
Is awesome 2008/2009 Hanley back? He looks like he actually cares about winning and he’s been hotter than PUIG!
12:35
Dan Szymborski: It’s looking like it – drain that BABIP to his career average and his numbers are still ridonkulous
12:35
Comment From James
Teams still pitch to Miguel Cabrera because….
12:35
Dan Szymborski: intentional walks are the most boring play!
12:35
Comment From Ruben
Hamels or Gio ROS? Why?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Gio, better park and better defensive support
12:36
Comment From poncho
If K-rod goes to the Red Sox will he or Uehara close?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: It *ought* to still be Uehara, but I think it might be K-Rod
12:36
Dan Szymborski: The Red Sox have gotten sadly closer obsessed
12:37
Comment From zack
Can you make a serious case that Randy Johnson is the greatest pitcher of all time?
12:37
Dan Szymborski: It’s really hard – you’d have to make it on peak, but there’s so much competition there
12:38
Comment From Dave
Jeff Locke’s FIP is 3.7 and xFIP is 4.2. Can we disregard his xFIP because he’s a lefty at a ballpark that suppresses HRs for lefty’s? Can we disregard his FIP somewhat since the pirates are one of the better defensive teams in the MLB? He had better peripherals last year and worse results, what gives?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: You shouldn’t disregard FIP, simply because the sample for ERA to become that relevant over FIP is very large
12:38
Dan Szymborski: I still think eh’s a league-averageish player
12:39
Dan Szymborski: You can greatly overestimate just how much of an impact the defense has. Pirates are good, but not legendary
12:40
Comment From Tim E.
In Dave’s contract value series he said (in so many words) that Machado is a future superstar, to a large degree because he is so far ahead of the game by doing what he is doing at ages 20/21. Do you agree with this reasoning, i.e. that a guy who is raking when most others are in A ball is destined to be great?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: I don’t like destiny, but the odds are very high – guys that are that accomplished at that age have a very high rate of superstardom
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Given that he’s got 5 bWAR and 4.3 fWAR before end of July, his superstardom isn’t exactly speculative at this point
12:41
Comment From Connor
Mariners look like they are gaining some ground, any hope for them?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Meh. As I said above, it’s a mediocre team
12:41
Comment From zack
If Yadier Molina has 3 or 4 more monster years and the cardinals win another world season will he make the hall of fame?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: 3 or 4 more monster years is a pretty tall order for a catcher that just turned 31
12:42
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to tell now – the BBWAA voters are doing such a remarkably shitty job.
12:42
Comment From Jeff
Is Justin Verlander mourning Kate Upton? How else can we explain this?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: Seems reasonable.
12:43
Comment From Wrestling Fan From Ohio
Should the Indians trade Trevor Bauer for Gallardo? Neither of them have control, would this just be another #5 for #5 swap like the Jiminez deal?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure either team would. It may just be swapping one frustration for another
12:43
Comment From James
Nick Castellanos is rated in the top 25 in preseason and midseason prospect rankings. Wilmer Flores is currently not rated in the top 100 and had a better season last yr when they both played A/AA and is currently one of the league leaders in the PCL. I understand the argument about Flores not having a position, but Castellanos is a liability at the position he plays. And if Flores played 3b, he would be just as good if not better defensively then Castellanos at 3b. Can you explain why Flores isnt ranked and Castellanos is so high?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: That’s one of those things you’d have to ask the specific people that do the rankings.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: I do believe that the people that make those rankings like Castellanos power upside more than Flores
12:46
Dan Szymborski: And even though Flores was playing at fairly advanced levels fairly young, his development did seem stagnant for several years, which is hard to shake from memory
12:46
Comment From Adam
Do you see any expansion teams coming into baseball in the near future (say 10 years)?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: No.
12:47
Comment From Rick Reilly Sucks
Is Lincecum turning it around for any fantasy value or is he just a mirage?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Don’t get *too* excited yet. He’s flashed brilliance for a couple of starts before sucking for a month more than once
12:47
Comment From Klobb Life
Would Mike Olt make a decent fantasy option at 3B if he goes to The Cubs?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: This season, probably not
12:48
Dan Szymborski: He’s taken a big step back this season
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Remember, he wasn’t young for AA last year, so it’s worrisome that he’s been so lousy after a promotion
12:48
Comment From Eminor3rd
Can you give me an ancient history/mythological analogy for teams choosing to trade for Garza or Peavy? I’m thinking the fact that they are rival champions form the same city/stronghold might be part of it
12:49
Dan Szymborski: hmm
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I’m getting a cold, so my sharpness isn’t very good
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I got nothing
12:50
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Mauer an eventual HoFer?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: He ought to be. I think he’s fated to be one of the horrible oversights the BBWAA will make in 15 years.
12:51
Comment From zack
Better pitch: Pedro’s change or the units slider?
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Pedro’s change
12:52
Dan Szymborski: A couple of years towards the end, the change was all he had going for him and he still got results wiht it
12:52
Comment From Jake
The Cardinals are one of the very few teams who has the trade chips to get Stanton this offseason, and Beltran needs to be replaced. Should they give up Taveras and some of their top pitchers to get him? Would you? I’m not a Cards fan, but as a baseball fan, I want to see that lineup every day.
12:53
Dan Szymborski: If It’s Taveras plus top pitching prospects, i stand pat honestly.
12:53
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
For the next three years: Rizzo or A. Craig?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: For 3 years? Probably still Craig, though I like Rizzo
12:53
Comment From Ben
Who has been the most disappointing team so far?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Easy, Toronto!
12:53
Comment From BassmanUW
Isn’t the person to blame for the Angels actually either Moreno or DiPoto, though? At a time when the Angels really should have attempted to rebuild around Trout and Weaver, they instead bought heavily. And that could have been a quick rebuild, too. It’s not Scioscia’s fault that more than $300 million in contracts are devoted to two guys in the decline phase of their career.
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Firings and hirings are never much about “deserve”
12:54
Comment From JL
Is Jose Fernandez the most under the radar story of the 2013 MLB season? I understand he made the all-star team, but, seriously, we haven’t seen someone this young/inexperienced dominate the sport since King Felix.
12:54
Dan Szymborski: I dunno, there’s been a lot of talk about him. I don’t know that it’s under the radar to the extent that you say
12:55
Comment From Maxamuz
Can you say 3 good things about Lucas Duda? If you don’t it will cause mass hysteria and a new mortal enemy for me.
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Draws walks, think he has even more power potential than he’s shown, defense isn’t so bad as to cause the fall of civilization
12:56
Comment From Ben
Mike Trout is on pace for another 10-WAR season despite a BABIP that is way lower than what it was last year. His K% is way lower and his BB% is higher. My question is, what is Mike Trout’s peak? Many, including you, thought last year was his “peak” or a career-type year, but as we are witnessing, he is actually improving. Is there anything else he can/will improve upon? Or is this it? Does Mike Trout have a ceiling?!
12:56
Dan Szymborski: I think he does. He’s at his ceiling now.
12:57
Comment From Moose
would you rather have Wil Myers or Granderson RoS?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Myers. I keep telling people not to overrate Myers, but RoS, I want a healthy Granderson in the lineup before I get excited
12:57
Comment From Anne Van Dance
at what point with the injuries should the yankees be selling? Hughes, Joba and Granderson (healthy) all seem like worthwile options
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, they *should* be selling, but Yankees don’t like rebuilding
12:57
Comment From Steve
Is Hanley a sell high guy? Or should I keep him around for next season?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Again, it always depends on what your actual offers are.
12:58
Comment From Rick Reilly Sucks
Does a guy like Altuve have an inflated WAR because he’s the best hitter/player on the team?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: I’m not really sure I understand the question.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: WAR does not involve apportioning out wins in that way.
12:59
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Have you Read Gabe Kapler’s take on the players and stats awareness?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I read it. It’s definitely true that teams should be communicating with players and letting them know what’s expected
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Though even if they’re not communicating as they should, it’s not that hard to find out information about stats.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: It’s not like OBP and SLG are contained on secret scrolls that only Theo Epstein and Andrew Friedman have written in blood at their cult hideout
1:02
Comment From David
WHY DO YOU ANSWER SO MANY STUPID AND EASY QUESTIONS?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Hard ones, I’d have to sit here and contemplate and then I’ll only answer 6 all hour.
1:02
Dan Szymborski: While you guys stare at an unmoving wall of text.
1:03
Dan Szymborski: It’s my weekly FanGraphs Chat, not my weekly FanGraphs Symposium
1:03
Comment From atoms
Colon’s body fat/WAR ratio is best in the league, though!
1:03
Dan Szymborski: That’s the kind of thing I do. I’ve got a greatly low body thinness index!
1:03
Comment From Anne Van Dance
when do you see the respectable memebers of the BBWAA just quitting out of embarassment?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Well, the BBWAA is more than just the voting – it’s useful because it makes it easier for a journalist to do their job
1:04
Dan Szymborski: I don’t expect there to be any quitting, though it is embarrassing.
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Someone like me, I don’t really *need* BBWAA membership – I don’t need access to do my day-to-day job and in the even that I did, I have enough connections and ESPN support that I could get what I needed
1:05
Comment From Matt
Why such speculation that the Tigers will trade for a closer when they already have Benoit who is likely better than all available
1:05
Dan Szymborski: It’s silly. Leyland was ridiculously resistant to using Benoit as closer earlier this year
1:06
Dan Szymborski: You make a good closer by having a good reliever pitch in the 9th
1:07
Comment From Oren
Is Alex Anthopoulos a bad GM?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so. I liked his offseason moves also. Sometimes good moves wind up horribly and bad moves wind up being very beneficial
1:07
Comment From zack
Who would you rather have ROS: Delmon or Franceour?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Now that’s just cruel. It’s like one of those “WOULD YOU RATHER LIVE UNDER HITLER OR POL POT” questions and I respond that “I have a lot of German family and am very looking so probably Hitler” and then you go “OMG SZYMBORSKI IS A NAZI” and then I start getting neo-nazi spam in my inbox
1:09
Comment From zack
Kershaw extension= 8/225?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s in tat range.
1:09
Comment From RetireNutting
If you’re Huntginton approaching the deadline, do you stand pat or add a middling guy like Rios, Pence, Mourneau at significant cost to the farm (Hanson, Glasnow, Heredia, Bell — basically anyone not Taillon, Polanco)
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I’d either add a big piece and absorb the cost or do nothing.
1:09
Comment From Steve
How do you pronounce “Ottoneu”
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Auto new?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: OK, after 1, so time for those other inappropriate questions as we enter the Enlightening Round.
1:10
Comment From Steven
Jonathon Lucroy is awesome, .285/.329/.491, and .305/.344/.529 since May. He is projected to be a 4 win player. What is his “real value” if pitch framing was counted?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Lucroy’s another player on that STOP FREAKING OUT ABOUT APRIL YOU DOUCHETARDS list
1:12
Dan Szymborski: I’m still not sure the long-term value of pitch framing. It’s one of those things that if it becomes noticed enough, you might see it be in the back of umps minds when those guys are behind the plate
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Well, assuming the umps are competent and wish to do a good job, which does sounds like a crazy assumption
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Angel Hernandez knows less about the strike zone than Todd Akin knows about rape.
1:12
Comment From saskatunes
been long enough that it seems appropriate to ask again: when’s the next music quiz chat?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t set any definite plans. That’s not the kind of thing I’m going to do more than once or twice a year
1:13
Comment From bdhudson
Re: Olt – he’s been solid(ish)since returning from the DL. .250 or so with upper .400 slugging. Not lighting the world on fire by any means, but improving. Worth nothing.
1:13
Dan Szymborski: If there wasn’t a mitigating factor, he’d slide off the prospect lists pretty well
1:13
Comment From Brandon (i miss my gf)
what is more self serving BBWAA or Congress?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Certainl BBWAA members are even more sanctimonious, which is impressive.
1:14
Comment From Homer
Devise a cruel & unusual punishment to inflict upon Hawk Harrelson for being insufferable?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Kind of like the punishment of Prometheus, but it also involves some combination of glass shards, salt, and his scrotum.
1:15
Comment From RetireNutting
Probably Hector v. Achilles for Garza/Peavy — Iliad.
1:15
Comment From James
What would Barry Bonds be batting this season if he were still playing?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: It’s been awhile, it might be something like 200/320/400 at this point
1:15
Comment From Eminor3rd
Sale vs. Scherzer tonight, or Steam Summer Sale bounty?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Steam Summer Sale ended at noon!
1:16
Comment From Brandon (i miss my gf)
who is starting SS in the bronx next year?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: I think they still bring in Jeter to trout out there
1:16
Dan Szymborski: trot
1:16
Comment From Guest
Arenado is just as good as Machado on defense
1:16
Dan Szymborski: But not at hitting!
1:16
Comment From Elvis
Better career: Profar or Machado?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Before year, I’d say Machado, but Machado’s step forward is less pseculative now, so I’ll say Machado. ThougH I do love me some Profar
1:17
Comment From tandn
But can you imagine if WAR was a rationed statistic?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Win shares!
1:17
Comment From Sadwick
His question was assuming WAR was dividing a teams total wins amongst the players on said team. So the answer was no, WAR doesn’t work that way.
1:17
Dan Szymborski: That’s what I figured.
1:17
Comment From Maxamuz
Lucas “The Main Event” Duda could single handily save the world and not cause 120 billion in damages.
1:18
Comment From DNA
I don’t think players’ understanding of sabermetrics should have that big of an impact. While they should know that we’re not judging them by their batting average, I’m not convinced a player who aims to maximize his wOBA is necessarily the right approach. In general shouldn’t they focus on small things: good at-bats, hitting the ball hard, rather than higher level analysis. Paralysis by analysis is a real thing in real people.
1:18
Dan Szymborski: It shouldn’t have an impact, but I *do* think that players should at least have knowledge of how they are being evaluated.
1:19
Comment From saskatunes
Nice, I loved Unmoving Wall of Text’s debut album.
1:19
Comment From Sadwick
Obviously stats aren’t a secret, unless your name is Dayton Moore, then they are the unknowable mysteries of the universe.
1:19
Comment From Mike
Replacing Taveras with Stanton doesn’t make the Cards lineup much more impressive, IMO. But if you could find some way to replace Pete Kozma with someone who is not Pete Kozma, you might be on to something…
1:19
Comment From Gary
is Oscar Taveras losing prospect stock as he continues to stay out with an ankle sprain along with his growing character concerns?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think either are a big deal at this point
1:19
Comment From tandn
How long before a manager stops the silly convention of “closers” altogether?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Maybe we’ll have wrung it out by 2030
1:19
Comment From Jacob
What should I make for lunch?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Sandvich.
1:20
Comment From Brandon (i miss my gf)
More disfuncional voting group BBWAA or Congress??
1:20
Dan Szymborski: Again, BBWAA
1:20
Dan Szymborski: Congress is clowny, but at least you have two groups that at least seem to have some underlying ideology.
1:20
Dan Szymborski: Some of the BBWAA guys are just making up shit as they go along
1:20
Comment From Steven
Did you hear Leyland’s reasoning for pitching Mo in the 8th of the AS game? Something like, “if the NL came back I wouldn’t get to use the best reliever at all”. I found this hilarious because this same logic is not used by ANY manager during the season when they should use their best reliever earlier than a standard save opportunity.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: For some strange reason, no managers description of his reliever usage has ever made a sense of logical sense.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: It’s like some weird bizarro part of baseball that’ simmune to any kind of reasoning
1:22
Comment From Scott Livingstone
Please say something about Gary Pettis.
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Uh
1:22
Dan Szymborski: He once had his little brother pose as him to screw with Topps
1:22
Comment From James
What are your thoughts on Kyle Kendrick?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Rumors of Kendrick’s Awesomeness were Greatly Exaggerated.
1:23
Comment From BassmanUW
It seems to me that AA’s problems were more that none of his prospects were becoming sure fire studs. They either weren’t making that jump, had injury problems, or both. So to go for it, he had to combine a bunch of those prospects to bring in a significant haul of veterans to try to compete now. He tried to take advantage of what was viewed as a relatively weak year in the AL East, and it turns out the Orioles were for real and the Red Sox were much better than anyone thought they would be.
1:23
Comment From Bill
At what point does ERA represent performance better than FIP? I know you said it’s awhile, but are we talking 2 seasons or 5 or what?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, they hit the equal mark in predictive power at around the 2500-3000 BF mark
1:24
Comment From Redd
I like your chats a lot but please don’t make jokes using the suffix “-tard.” Thank you.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Sorry, force of habit. It used to be a recognized slur for your dumbass friends.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: I’m a relic of the 80s.
1:24
Comment From Boof
I’m… I’m not sure if there’s a great clamoring for more music quiz chats…
1:25
Comment From Maxamuz
True Fact: Lucas “The Main Event” Duda can summon lightning from his bat.
1:25
Comment From Manapple
This is somewhat random, but has anyone ever tried to develop a game prediction system on the basis of some advanced version of WRC+ or WOBA+ and presumably SIERA+
1:25
Dan Szymborski: People have done simulations and projections, the problem is individual games are quite volatile
1:25
Comment From Richie
Stop picking on congressmen and sportswriters. Every profession has its sanctimonious types, and every workplace I’ve been in most everybody has ‘managed’ their customers and cut other corners rather than put their own job at any risk.
1:25
Comment From atoms
I bet Trout would actually be a better defensive shortstop than Jeter next year.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Ouch
1:26
Comment From BassmanUW
Re: the other side of Kapler’s statements, though, there’s the long said phrase among Dominican prospects that you can’t walk your way off the island. But if young kids also knew that you can’t just hack your way past Double A (ahem Javier Baez), they may begin considering their approach earlier than they otherwise would have.
1:26
Comment From Guest
John Adams[edit]. I have come to the conclusion that one useless man is a disgrace, that two are called a law firm, and that three or more become a Congress!
1:27
Dan Szymborski: At the Diet of Nerds earlier this year, FG and BR agreed on using 1000 WAR per 2430 games, which comes out at 47.7 wins
1:27
Comment From Gila Monster
What is the record of a replacement level team?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: OMG I CAN PREDICT THE QUESTION!
1:27
Comment From Gila Monster
How much damage did the Steam Sale do to your bank account?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Hmm, let’s see
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Looks like $147
1:28
Comment From Todd
Do you believe in ghosts?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: No.
1:28
Comment From Dr. Met
Dennis Farina passed away….
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Aww, I always liked him. I was the one guy that actually liked him on Law & Order.
1:28
Comment From Maxamuz
I for one and excited for Nate Silver to be coming to ESPN and whats in store for his Baseball Projections.
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Don’t forget, BP owns PECOTA
1:29
Comment From Klobb-tard
I don’t know if I want to live in a world where you can’t pick on Congress and sportswriters.
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Well said.
1:29
Comment From Alex Trebek
When did this chat turn into Jeopardy?
1:29
Dan Szymborski: You’re supposed to give the answers, not the questions!
1:29
Comment From Kate Upton: Fantasy MVP
I’d just like to say thank you for mentioning the Game of Thrones mod for Crusader Kings II. Superbly done mod.
1:30
Dan Szymborski: And on that note, I’m out for the week. Thanks for joining me everybody!

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