Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/28/14

12:00
Dan Szymborski: Come on Barbie, let’s go party!
12:01
Dan Szymborski: First off, our usual weekly business.
12:01
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12:01
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12:02
Comment From PS
will ken be at the party too???
12:03
Dan Szymborski: Not sure, but wrapped in plastic, it’s fantastic.

12:03
Comment From JTR
Hey Danny Boy, who do you think will get Tulo and what’ll it cost them?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: The Rockies. For his current contract.
12:03
Comment From Kevin
Andrelton Simmons, Evan Gattis, Mauricio Cabrera and Lucas Sims for “Tulowizki” Who hangs up?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: Given the report that the Rockies are apparently insisting on Kevin Gausman for Jorge de la Rosa, I’m not banking on them actually moving Tulo.
12:03
Comment From Bret
Several reports now that the Jays have been given $0 to spend from ownership at the trade deadline. Given that this is the first season they’ve been competitive in roughly 20 years, how angry should fans be?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: Very. I think I said this last week, but a team should never go into a season with 100% of what they’re willing to pay being utilized.
12:04
Dan Szymborski: As long as ownership isn’t short on cash, refusing to make marginal improvements with excellent marginal gains is beyond stupid.
12:05
Comment From JW
You think the Peavy deal just set a ceiling or floor for the rest of the mid-tier 1/2 season rental SP market?
12:05
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s dangerous to read too much into single trades.
12:06
Comment From Nick
I’m not seeing a lot/any links between the Tigers and Andrew Miller. Do you think there is a chance they swoop in on him at the deadline?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: The Red Sox have been getting a lot of interest for Miller. They *should* still look into upgrading their bullpen, but I don’t know if they have the prospects if Miller actually results in a bidding war.
12:07
Comment From PS
dan were you a history major?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: math/econ
12:07
Comment From Timothy
Why do people keep calling Heyward a bust? Dude’s on pace for another 6 win season, has 20.4 WAR thru first 5 seasons (almost as much as Posey and Braun over same period and more than Stanton), and is STILL not 25 years old yet. /end rant
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Mostly because Heyward’s value isn’t obvious at a quick glance of his stats.
12:08
Dan Szymborski: And relatively few people think of a corner outfielder as being able to save 20 runs a year.
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Given his defensive numbers in right (and enough time that they’re mostly real), he really ought to be in center.
12:09
Comment From Person who likes Rays
What is the maximum haul the Rays can get for David Price?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: I’ve got this feeling that the Rays don’t trade him until the winter after all. By all accounts (and the inside buzz I’m privy to) they’re still asking for the moon for him.
12:10
Comment From Sox
Is Kemp subsidized down to 50 mill and Seager reasonable expectations for a Lester return ?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: A little much. Kemp subsidized down to 50 is essentially break-even, so that leaves Seager for 2 months of Lester. That’s too much for the Dodgers.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, maybe you rob them — the last big Red Sox-Dodger trade is still pretty bad for the Dodgers — but I’m not sure you want to go in with robbery being a reasonable expectation.
12:12
Comment From Jim
Gotta go with the distant relative here, Adams
12:12
Comment From PS
i, personally, find hanging up to be kind of rude.
12:13
Dan Szymborski: It is! Unless it’s for a big scene ina movie.
12:13
Comment From Matt
Dan,do you think that the CHC approach of finding FA SP bargains, which they’ve employed the last few offseasons, will become more difficult to execute on, as other teams grow wise to this approach? At some point they’re going to have to pay up for an elite name(s) or trade some of the prized prospects to build the rotation, no?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: It’s always difficult, but I think they’ll still come up with names.
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Simply because finding these lottery tickets isn’t really a productive game for a contending team, which tends to need to be more risk-averse.
12:14
Dan Szymborski: It’s a side-effect of being a rebuilding team.
12:14
Comment From Marios Mom
Danny … Jedd Gyorko > Mario Mendoza this time around?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Gyorko was nowhere near as good as his 2013 numbers, but I still have hope he’ll be adequate.
12:14
Comment From Sirras One
Most dysfunctional front office in baseball? Gotta think that Rockies, Phillies, Mariners, D-Backs are all possibilities
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Phillies are the *worst* but I’d put the Rockies as the most dysfunctional.
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Now, I know that doesn’t make a lot of sense, but I’ll explain. The Phillies are just out-and-out incompetent. I have no faith in Ruben Amaro and his staff adequately appraising the value of any player in or outside the organizaiton.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: The Rockies aren’t full of numbskullery — Dan O’Dowd is actually a fairly smart guy by all accounts — but there’s always this organizational stasis in which there never seems to be a goal or a purpose to anything they do.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: The Rockies are like an otherwise competent chess player that simply goes around making decent looking moves as the mood arises.
12:17
Dan Szymborski: And against the better competition, which is selectively making incremental gains for a unified strategy, they lose in the endgame.
12:18
Dan Szymborski: I’ve made this comparison a lot, but I stick by it. The way the Rockies operate is the Homer Simpson Plan of hiding under a pile of coats and hoping somehow, everything will just work out.
12:18
Comment From (not that) James
Fredi Gonzalez isn’t batting BJ Upton at leadoff today! Hooray! But he is batting Jordan Schafer at leadoff. Unhooray.
12:18
Dan Szymborski: At least Upton has more than a month of his career that doesn’t indicate he completely sucks.
12:19
Comment From Player Development Nerd
In terms of Win Probability, is a 1-run game the same regardless of the overall score? Or is a 9-8 lead in the bottom of the ninth less safe than a 1-0?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: As far as I know, they’re still using Tango’s chart, which focuses on the differential.
12:20
Dan Szymborski: Though a 9-8 lead is likely less safe in reality than a 1-0 lead, simply because of the slightly increased likelihood that the 9-8 score is taking place in a context in which runs are easier to score.
12:21
Comment From Nick
DET/BOS: Johnathon Crawford for Andrew Miller. Who says no?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the Tigers don’t say no to that.
12:23
Comment From PS
how is jake peavy even considered an ok pitcher?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: He’s had a lousy season, but he has a history of not being lousy.l
12:23
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS gives him a 90-something ERA+ in SF>
12:24
Comment From person hscer
Ha! The thought of a history major creating one of the top projection systems around. Hilarious! – a history major
12:24
Dan Szymborski: People learn stuff later in life.
12:24
Comment From Person who likes Rays
Which team lines up best with the Rays needs and assets, assuming Price, Zobrist, and Joyce are on the block? Do you think teams may be interested in slurping up a guy like Hellickson?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I think Joyce will be an easier sell than the top two. Hellickson is a real possibility.
12:25
Comment From matt
Is there any chance that Dylan Bundy gets called up this year or is it more likely it will be next season?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll pop up in September, though I think they’re oging to use him in lower-leverage situations.
12:25
Comment From sda
Do you ever find TF2 to be too addictive? I know personally I had to stop playing because I couldn’t put it down when I knew I really should
12:26
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if it’s too addictive, but TF2 is a game that if you have a good community to play in, there’s a lot of synergy
12:27
Dan Szymborski: TF2’s more of a “fun” FPS type game relative to Battlefield or Call of Duty.
12:27
Comment From person hscer
So you’re saying Jason Heyward’s defensive numbers are real and they’re spectacular?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, his numbers don’t have that awkward wrinkliness when you squeeze them.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: By which I mean, “explore mathematically” of course.
12:28
Comment From sda
Now that Chris young is suddenly striking people out, is he suddenly more legit?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Certainly more interesting, though I wouldn’t get *that* excited yet.
12:29
Comment From Jake
There’s a lot of variance between the BaseRuns record on fan graphs, and the projected finish in season to date stats mode. Why? What formula does season to date sats mode use?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: You gotta ask one of the Davids (Cammy or Apples) for that kind of info on FG inner workings.
12:29
Comment From Sneaky Snake
Is Stephen Drew going to be sneaky good for the Sox ROS?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: No. And he ought to be in a new uniform in the next few days or nothing he does will be sneaky good for the Red Sox.
12:31
Dan Szymborski: There is zero reason for Bogaerts, as long as he’s healthy, to get a single start anywhere but short for the rest of the season
12:31
Comment From Timothy
What happened to the Pitcher GIFs website?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Did you ask them on Twitter? I’m the Mayor of the Internet. I didn’t even run in the primaries.
12:32
Comment From Chicago Mark
Hello Dan, Do you think the Phillies will actually do the right thing and sell? If so, who would they sell?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: No.
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Because it’s the right thing to do.
12:32
Dan Szymborski: And Phillies.
12:32
Comment From JTR
Has Francisco Cervelli’s past few weeks made him a valuable trade chip for the Yanks?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: It shouldn’t.
12:32
Comment From Rays closer is Poops McGee
If Gallo were to start 2015 with the rangers and get 600 ABs regardless of performance, what would his overall line look like
12:32
Dan Szymborski: It’d be fun, probably an impressive number of homers and strikeouts.
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Probably look like a Rob Deer year.
12:34
Comment From THE IRON SHIEK
Jacob deGrom the real?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: I’m increasingly inclined to think that he is.
12:34
Dan Szymborski: The Mets are such an interesting team
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Like I said in a conversation witha friend recently, the Mets really have all the pieces they need, the question is when they’ll figure out how to put them all together.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: With Terry Collins and the Wilpons, they’re like a guy who bought some badass furniture, but some assembly’s required and the instructions are all in old norse or something.
12:36
Comment From Daryl
How do you see Billy Hamilton’s zips shaking out next year?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Projection of projections? That’ a bit meta!
12:36
Comment From jocephus
i dont think you posted the dodgers/boston/lester/kemp question
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Did I?
12:36
Comment From Guest
Hi Dan, do you think Jon Schoop will hit in the future? His glove has been great, but the bat…
12:36
Dan Szymborski: I’m still confident, but he’s been quite meh.
12:36
Comment From Timothy
Some speculation that Kemp would have to DH if he went to the Red Sox given the clusterfuck that is his OF play. Wouldn’t positional adjustment for the DH hurt his value almost as much as negative fielding numbers in the OF?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Probalby not, he’s *atrocious* in the outfield lately.
12:37
Dan Szymborski: You kinda look at a bad centerfielder and think “hey, maybe he’ll be an OK corner guy”
12:37
Dan Szymborski: But nope. Kemp’s been playing in the outfield like Kevin Reimer wearing snowshoes after winning a chili-eating contest.
12:38
Comment From PS
What level of belief do you have in Tyson Ross?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: He’s punching the [firetruck] out of guys with that slider, which you can see in his strikeout rate, so I’m a strong enough believer that I may buy some books or attend an open house, but not enough that I’d do anything ritualistic involving my genitalia.
12:40
Comment From PS
how are the astros not on that dysfunctional front office list?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: They’ve had some issues recently, but they don’t have the long track record of dysfunction as those other teams.
12:41
Comment From Guest
Who do you think has the best front office then?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: A’s or Cardinals.
12:41
Comment From Bret
Should the Cubs just go out and sign Lester and Scherzer this offseason? $250M or so and their pitching questions and mostly solved.
12:41
Dan Szymborski: That would be fun and to be honest, I think I’d actually push for the team to do that sort of thing. I think a splash like this might be another year off
12:42
Comment From Paul
Why wouldn’t the Padres trade Kennedy? Value at its perceived highest and the team wont be competing for 2-3 years. Same goes for Cashner honestly.
12:42
Dan Szymborski: The Padres only like trading guys at the lowest point of their value.
12:42
Comment From Ronnie
Now that he’s back in AAA, can we expect anything from Alexander Guerrero this year? Think he’ll get enough playing time to be relevant in 12-team leagues?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: In 12-teams? I don’t think he’ll get the time.
12:42
Comment From Sirras One
Re: worst/dysfunctional front offices – while I love the Phillies having entirely incompetent management, they haven’t signed about 40 first basemen to play for them this year alone
12:43
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, the Mariners skills of collecting seemingly thousands of mediocre 1B/DH types are unparalelled.
12:43
Dan Szymborski: paralleled
12:43
Comment From Ben
Anything truly wrong with Bryce Harper? Or just a young player working through holes in in his swing and much ado about nothing in the DC media?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: Much ado about nothing.
12:45
Comment From Brandon
Lucas Sims’ K-rate has gone down from 10.34 last year to 6.03 this year. Any reason why? And should I be concerned?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: It’s a bigger drop than you like, but unless I’m missing something, there hasn’t been any whispering of serious underlying issues.
12:46
Dan Szymborski: Just increased difficulty of putting away guys sometimes after advancing in minors. Does probably lower his ceiling at least slightly as it wasn’t a huge level jump
12:46
Comment From STiVo
Man, the “Come on Barbie, Let’s Go Party” line takes me back to freshman year, where three guys from UAE lived next door to me. They blasted that song all day and night for about a month. Mark Prior was on the other end of the hall. I think I got stuck on the wrong side…
12:47
Dan Szymborski: It’s in my head because playing TF2 last night, we were trying to sing the song in Louis Armstrong’s voice, completely with scatting.
12:47
Comment From Compton
Did you watch the Hall of Fame ceremony? Did you notice the GLARING grammatical error on Greg Maddux’s plaque?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Oh, the half-artist?
12:47
Comment From Rags
Happiness is to good stuff as Dan Szymborski is to _____.
12:48
Dan Szymborski: poopface.
12:48
Comment From person hscer
Denard Span has a .457 OBP in July. Unsustainable, I know, but I am greatly enjoying it.
12:48
Comment From Bastiat
if you had to seize control of the Rockies what are the first 5 things you would do?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Execute dissidents, place trusted figures in power positions, prepare possible exile location when US counterattacks, reassure people that there is no coup happening, chat about the trade deadline.
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Oh, the *Colorado Rockies*
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Well, I think the first thing the Rockies need to do is sit down and realistically plan out their short-term and long-term goals.
12:50
Dan Szymborski: And make moves based on achieving the specific goals, not simply because you “like” a player or not.
12:50
Comment From Gareth
Carlos Santana – the poster child for not putting too much stock in Average?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: I think I had to answer a “give up on Santana?” question each of the first 8 weeks or so of the season. Again, a .170 BABIP is not remotely sustainable for a major league-quality hitter and for those that thought it was, you are ordered to make a dunce cap and sit in the corner and read all of Murray Chass’s blog entries.
12:52
Comment From Socrates Dombrowski
We talk about component vs. result stats. What is the ultimate result stat? A win? A championship? A dynasty? A lifetime of fitful nights’ rests?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Depends.
12:52
Comment From Compton
The Pirates have (arguably) the most assets of any contending team. What’s one move YOU would make if you were in charge?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: I’d love to bring in Cliffly, though it depends on the Phillies being reasonable.
12:53
Comment From Gareth
Top 5 managers in mlb right now ? I say francona, Maddon, girardi, bochy, showalter.
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Mostly agree except Bochy
12:54
Comment From Eeyore
Talk to me about front office “competence.” I hear a lot of blind faith in CHC circles in Epstein as simply “good” at what he does, but what does that even mean? So far imo the approach hasn’t been terribly creative.
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Putting together the best minor league system in baseball and continually getting value from buy-low guys like Arrieta and Valbuena isn’t terribly creative? Sign me up for a front office full of banalities and pabulum.
12:56
Comment From Rob
How important is it for the Phillies to trade Hamels in the next 6 months or so? Seems like getting a haul for him may be their last opportunity to avoid a complete Cubs/Astros-like rebuild.
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, the playoff core of the Phillies is done. The only question is if they want their next GM to take over before the team hits Astros depths.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: If the Phillies were a wartime regime, Albert Speer would already be formulating his excuses.
12:58
Comment From Rob
How come Jake Peavy isn’t considered a future hall of fame pitcher? 33 years old, 37.6 WAR so far.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t seem to be in a great position to add to those bulk numbers.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: A lot of that is play he’s done a long time ago.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Plus, even if he deserved it, the BBWAA voting is comically terrible.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: So bad that first it was funny and then not funny and then all the way around to funny again.
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Coming into the season, ZiPS had Peavy finishing 195-150 with a 113 ERA+ in 2968 IP and 14 WAR remaining in the tank. Taht wouldn’t get it done, even in a “deserving” sense.
1:00
Comment From Gareth
Sale. Kershaw. Respective cy youngs. Everyone else go home.
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:01
Comment From Josiah
Has Josh Donaldson overtaken Evan Longoria as an elite 3B?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: I think so, though I think Longo will have a bounceback year.
1:02
Comment From Nick
Dan, as a fellow long-named “….(s/z)ki”, how offended would you be if your bosses misspelled your name on the website and refused to change it?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Heh.
1:03
Dan Szymborski: My name is still occasionally misspelled, which I understand, but I’ve never been in a position in which someone *refused* to change it.l
1:03
Comment From The Oriole Bird
Chance Sisco is a cool name. How’s he doing this year in the SALLY?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Solid season, though he’s still a work in progress defensively
1:04
Comment From Rob
So WoW released Siege of Orgrimmar almost 11 months ago, and by all viewpoints they’re about to break the record of 12 months with no new content back when they did Icecrown Citadel. Is this delay killing their game?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Doubt it’s killing the game, there’s a natural showing of age here
1:04
Comment From Kate Upton: Fantasy MVP
Where are the Hearthstone cards today? And what do you think of the new expansion cards?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Oh, did I not do any hearthstone cards this week? HOld on
1:05
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1:06
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1:06
Dan Szymborski: Since we’re past the 1 PM time (allow more random off-topic questions)
1:06
Dan Szymborski: The Nerubian Egg is great.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Loatheb is great against a miracle deck
1:08
Dan Szymborski: I can see an occasional priest playing zombie chow+riverndare with soulpriest and maybe velen if they can get it on the board
1:08
Comment From Gila Monster
Jon Lester to the Orioles for Hunter Harvey and a C-prospect, who says no? Maybe the Red Sox can try for Gausman said something to make the Orioles hate him
1:08
Dan Szymborski: I would hope the O’s say no. I like Lester, but it’s not worth it for 2 months of Lester.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: That’s why you increasingly see teams trading a year and two months of their future FA pitchers rather than two months. Pure rentals are a dying market.
1:08
Comment From Oak
If you’re the mayor of the internet what type of pull do you have to #KeepNotGraphs?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I said I wasn’t the mayor of the internet! I think
1:09
Comment From Compton
If San Diego doesn’t have a GM, who made the Street trade?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I suspect Street did and someone signed the paperwork.
1:09
Comment From CrusaderKingsForLife
I saw your tweet about the Elvis Andrus contract — that’s a hot-button issue with Ranger fans right now. If he hadn’t been extended and were to hit the market this offseason, what kind of contract would you expect him to get?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Probably less, but he’s legitimately a 2-3 WAR SS for half a decade. I dont’ think the Rangers should be that unhappy
1:09
Comment From Matt
What’s with the Dbacks’ stubbornness to not move so many average and below average players as they start to get more expensive?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Well, for one, they’re not terribly well-run
1:09
Dan Szymborski: They’re well terribly-run.
1:09
Comment From RK
% chance Nick Franklin is a Mariner come Friday
1:10
Dan Szymborski: 65.241098824%
1:10
Comment From Donkey Kong, Jr.
What do you think 2015 portends for the Rangers — back to being a contender, or another season or irrelevance?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Kind of a season at the crossroads – if they’re unlucky and/or not able to buttress the core, they’ll be on the downswing.
1:11
Comment From Save Speculator
Who are your top 5 sneaky pickups for saves in the event of a trade?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Hmm, thinking really quckly, Thayer, Giles – I can’t see a lot more closers being traded
1:13
Comment From Gareth
Admit it Dan, you love Ruben amaro. Since the demise of bill bavasi hes the new comedy gold in boneheadedness
1:13
Comment From Ringtone Composer
…Like Kevin Reimer wearing snowshoes after a CINCINATTI chili-eating contest?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I would imagine most people would sign up for the army before participating in a cincinnati chili eating contest.
1:14
Dan Szymborski: Who thought that chili that tastes a bit like pumpkin pie was a good idea?
1:14
Comment From Dylan
Are you surprised the Rockies have explored trading CarGo? I get not wanted to trade Tulo, but CarGo is often injured,is set to make $7M more next year, and seemingly be on his way out when the window of contention begins to open for the Rockies
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I remain unconvinced how serious they are about it.
1:14
Comment From Rog
I think Scherzer/Lester is more like $350M
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I think $300 gets the pair.
1:14
Comment From Bert
Your top 3 buy low hitters for ROS value. Thanks.
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Didn’t I do a piece on this?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: YOu can probably still get Headley
1:15
Comment From josh
No rays in the best front office discussion?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Up there, but slightly behind – the prospect treadmill has slowed considerably and I still think they should have traded Prcie last winter
1:15
Comment From Gareth
Phillies need to sign a player called “the hills.” They can use this guy as an age rreference in the clubhouse.
1:16
Comment From Compton
I see that guests of your chats frequently ask about video games. Do you play Wave Race 64?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: I have a lot of interests, baseball, football, gaming, pro wrestling, classical music, nerdy indie pop.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: But that’s quite a random game to pop up
1:17
Dan Szymborski: I remember playing it on the N64 and I’m sure I have the ROM, but I doubt I’ve played it since, oh, 1998 or so.
1:17
Comment From Ringtone Composer
What kind of beer should I pair with Cincinnati chili?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Brooklyn Brewery’s Cyanide Stout.
1:18
Comment From Gareth
With the president fight today im imagining a weird Muppet / sesame street crossover fight between Grover and amy adams
1:18
Comment From gson
^^^^^^ Would have answered “..good stuff as Dan Szybmorski is to” Jello. Everyone loves Jello…
1:18
Comment From Gareth
The Rockies spelled troy tulowittskis jersey incorrectly for his jersey giveaway night. Great example of Rockies cluelessness
1:18
Comment From Sorry
Tyson Ross has a 27.1% K-BB % in the past 30 days. Having said that, boogerbutts are to fartfaces as peebrains are to _______ ?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: diarrheaburgers
1:19
Comment From mg
ROS: Mookie Betts or JD Martinez?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Betts if he gets the time.
1:20
Dan Szymborski: J.D. Martinez is like the Patron Saint of Buying High
1:20
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he’s gone past that 1 month line where he usually becomes J.D. Martinez again
1:20
Dan Szymborski: But if you want to bank on him keeping a .370 BABIP and a 13% HR/FB rate, that’s fraught with risk
1:20
Comment From JCACA
Will Alfredo Simon get Cy young votes because of how voters still put faith in traditional stats?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: I suspect his stats will decline enough the last couple of months that probably not
1:22
Comment From Gareth
My friends call cliff lee “the adverb. ”
1:22
Dan Szymborski: I make a lot of Cliffly jokes
1:22
Comment From Gareth
Dan Simborski. I am the guy at the docks at Ellis island shamelessly changing the spelling of your name.
1:23
Dan Szymborski: In interviews, the difficulty of my last name comes up. I frequently will joke that my last name was probably Simmons but someone at Ellis Island dropped something on the typewriter and tehy decided to just go with it
1:24
Comment From m
Why would you take chris Sale over Felix for the cy young? Just park factor?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: I’m assuming by the end of the year, Sale’s IP gap is made up for by the park difference.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: A .510 OOPS in the Cell is badasserous.
1:25
Comment From Mike
where do you create the custom Hearthstone cards?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: http://hearthcards.net/
1:25
Comment From Gila Monster
Blizzard is foolish if they aren’t working on a WoW2. People like me that considering going back and turned off by the age and how hard it is to get into again
1:25
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to plan something that may kill off your current cash cow.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Even below its peak, it’s still tremendously profitable.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: They *ought* to be working on the eventual successor (and for all I know, they may be – I have much better baseball connections than game industry connection)
1:26
Comment From Gareth
Lester and Willingham to Cleveland. Its official!
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Wait, really?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: That sounds like a lie.
1:26
Dan Szymborski: I’m here chatting, I have no idea what’s going on in the outside world!
1:27
Comment From atoms
“Buttress the core” sounds like it ought to be a euphemism for something. Or at least a regularly used turn of phrase.
1:27
Comment From JTR
Favorite TF2 class/hat/weapon combo?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: I enjoy hats/misc combinations that work poorly with each other that valve didn’t think to disqualify
1:28
Dan Szymborski: For soldier, I like to wear the big daddy/menpo/founding father combination. Makes the soldier look like a horribly disfigured george washington
1:29
Dan Szymborski: You guys might appreciate what I named my huntsman
1:30
:
1:30
Comment From Guests
Who is “Jason Lane” and why is he being allowed to ruin my Ervin Santana vs. San Diego start?
1:30
Dan Szymborski: It’s *that* Jason Lane
1:30
Comment From Guest
Do you think we (FG dwellers and such) are starting to put too much weight behind WAR? Because, all it really is, is a stat that takes leverage and situations out of it completely. So its saying ‘theoretically, if every play was the same, player A is better than Player B’. And we all know not every play is worth the same and game are worth the same.
1:31
Dan Szymborski: It always depends on the question. Every stat can be misused, but it’s best to deal with specific context than making a blanket statement
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Leverage and situations is a philosophical thing
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Personally, I’m unconvinced a player should get more “credit” based on that stuff
1:31
Comment From GRRRrrr
The Jays are owned by a multi billion dollar media corporation.. They have money coming out the ars… Fans should be livid.. this is bad ownership.
1:32
Comment From Guest
There’s a minor Razzball invasion in your chat right now. Shore up those defenses.
1:33
Dan Szymborski: Why would I need defenses? Is there any indication that I don’t love randomness and crazy questions?
1:34
Comment From john
Settlers of Catan. Cities and Knights. Best game ever?
1:34
Dan Szymborski: Catan is amazing.
1:34
Comment From My Precious Time
Just looked up Hearthstone for first time…life will never be the same :(
1:34
Dan Szymborski: Magic is deeper, but Hearthstone is more elegant in an internet format and easier to pick up and go.
1:34
Comment From Guglhupf
I think the Mariners have a celebratory dance in the outfield that could be described as buttressing the core
1:34
Comment From Blur
Has Francisco Cervelli’s past few weeks made him a valuable trade chip for the Yanks?

12:32

Dan Szymborski:
It shouldn’t… Why not?

1:34
Dan Szymborski: Because teams are generally not dumb enough these days to get excited over a few weeks.
1:35
Comment From John Cena
Do teams reinvest the money they saved during rebuilding years? If a team that could have a $100M payroll only spends $60 while rebuilding, will they use those savings to have a $140M payroll?
1:35
Dan Szymborski: They should, but many don’t.
1:35
Comment From Sandy
Cities and Knights is a terrible expansion that overcomplicates a beautifully simple game.
1:35
Comment From Guest
WHOA… *THAT* JASON LANE????
1:36
Dan Szymborski: Yes, *that* Jason lane.
1:37
Dan Szymborski: The 37-year-old that was an outfieflder with the Astros
1:37
Comment From Help please
Was just offered Miguel Cabrera for Lester and B. Hamilton… should I leave chat immediately to accept?
1:37
Dan Szymborski: I would.
1:38
Dan Szymborski: Once teams stopped giving Lane AAA jobs, he went to indie ball and started pitching full time
1:38
Dan Szymborski: He’s not actually goign to be any good in the majors or fantasy-relevant even with the Padres, but it’s still really cool
1:39
Comment From Jack Glasscocks Cup
damn you, Gareth! damn you to whichever circle of hell makes you the most damned! My heart skipped 13 beats (which took about 6 seconds because I’m really out of shape) after your post about the tribe. If they got ’em for As-Cab, that be fine, sir. But otherwise, nunhuh
1:39
Comment From john
Have you seen the catan cook book? No lie this is something that exists
1:39
Dan Szymborski: I have not. But today, everything that exists, does.
1:40
Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to wrap it up for another week. Thanks for joining me everyone! As hte usual reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, projections and chats here, and DSzymborski on Twitter (and Steam, some of you TF2 guys should come play with me and occasionally Wiers and hear a baseball writer say horrible things)
1:40
Comment From Pete DuPont
Should the Mets be afraid of the Tulo splits?
1:40
Dan Szymborski: Yes, but only the dancing kind, because he can be injury-prone and that may result in groin issues.



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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


10 Responses to “Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/28/14”

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  1. Jimmer says:

    Don’t the Rays have to be in the conversation for best front office?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. nard says:

    /Read more
    *Goes back 3 minutes*
    /Read more
    *Goes back 6 minutes*
    /Read more
    *Goes back 30 seconds*

    Fuck you, Coveritlive. Fuck you.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. nard says:

    It actually just prompted me to “Read More” to unveil the first chat comment and the first chat comment only. Brilliant.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. nard says:

    And of course posting that comment meant I have to do it all over again.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. bookbook says:

    “Sale. Kershaw. Respective cy youngs. Everyone else go home.”

    Wow. Just looked up Sale’s stats. They actually are ever so slightly better than Felix’s thus far (ERA 1.88 to 1.99, 10.0 K/9 vs 9.8. Both are at 1.6 BB/9)

    I think if the season ended today, Felix would win in a landslide, however. The extra 38 innings of excellence would carry the day.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Mike says:

    ‘The Jays are owned by a multi billion dollar media corporation.. They have money coming out the ars… Fans should be livid.. this is bad ownership.’

    INCORRECT

    the Jays are owned by Rogers SHAREHOLDERS who like profits

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • bookbook says:

      So… is it better for Rogers’ longterm profitability to spend a bit more and have the Jays make the 2014 playoffs?

      Arguably, it is.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. M W says:

    Skyline Chili is great, if you don’t like it – good – more for me.

    Vote -1 Vote +1