Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/11/14

11:59
Dan Szymborski: And awwwwwaaaaaaay we go!
11:59
Dan Szymborski: (No presidents again, I just got back home and just haven’t had the time to get it ready)
11:59
Comment From Mike
BJ upton joke
12:00
Dan Szymborski: It’s like we’ve used up all the B.J. Upton jokes that are possible to make. So all we can do now is just say “B.J. Upton joke” and skip the actual joke.
12:01
Comment From Xolo
Thoughts on Preller calling up Rymer Liriano as his first order of business in San Diego?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: It’s a good move – the Padres should try to see as much of him as quickly as possible and he killed in his brief AAA visit

12:02
Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly recovered well from the elbow –
12:02
Comment From Tom
Hi, Dan! Do the Tigers’ current playoff odds account for the recent injuries on their pitching staff?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t done a new one since losing Annabelle.
12:03
Dan Szymborski: But the FanGraphs version should – they’ve already bumped Sanchez down the depth chart and given more IP to Ray.
12:03
Comment From Bobert
Please rank the following 3B prospects, looking at future more than ROS contributions: Jake Lamb, D.J. Peterson, Maikel Franco.
12:04
Dan Szymborski: I think you already have the order.
12:05
Comment From Swatting Nats
Is Gio Gonzalez broken?
12:05
Dan Szymborski: He’s had some rough starts – not entirely confident he’s actually fully healthy
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Of course, given the fragility of pitchers, I’d put them in two groups: broken pitchers and broken pitchers pretending to be healthy
12:06
Comment From stdeve
Ruben Amaro joke
12:06
Comment From Guest
Chris Taylor can be trusted?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Dunno, i’d have to look deeply into his eyes and get to know him.
12:07
Dan Szymborski: From a playing standpoint, he’s been legitimately excellent this year – it’s the PCL, but Cheney is always one of the best pitchers’ parks in th league
12:08
Comment From Dr James Andrews
Dun dun dun, another one bites the dust.
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Every time a pitcher has a sore elbow or forearms, Jim Andrews actually hears an old-timey cash register opening and sees dancing dollar signs.
12:09
Comment From Vanderbilt Commodores
Can you recommend any good baseball books released in the last year?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Keri’s is my favorite that I’ve read this year.
12:09
Dan Szymborski: But I haven’t read that many this year – I’m very behind in my baseball reading.
12:10
Comment From Xolo
Considering how barren the 1B market is, should the Padres consider shifting Grandal to first to save his knees?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: Problem is, he’s not a very exciting player at 1B.
12:11
Dan Szymborski: The 1B market may not be great, but I don’t think he’ll hit well enough to be any kind of solution at first.
12:11
Comment From Darth Stout
Javy Baez has been exactly as advertised through 6 games. Big power, big swings, big strikeouts. Defense has been pretty good. What are the goals for him for the rest of 2014?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: To try to not strike out half the time. If he cuts it to a third, I think team’ll be happy
12:12
Comment From Nick
We’ve constantly under-projected the Baltimore Orioles. Could we be missing anything? Bullpen? Defense? Manager? Magical framing catcher?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Their magical ability to acquire random one-dimensional sluggers and have them hit really well?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Delmon Young’s actually been usable this year.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Steve Pearce
12:13
Dan Szymborski: The problem is that they only have so much one-dimensional-guy life essence to go along. So when Steve Pearce eats too much, Nelson Cruz can’t hit
12:13
Comment From Jolly Roger
Hulet wrote a glowing report on Christian Walker not too long ago. He sounds like a potential star at 1B (aside from being 6′), but Davis seems entrenched. Is there a place for Walker in the O’s near future, or does he need a trade to get the opportunity?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: The O’s aren’t so packed that they wouldn’t be able to use him and remember, Davis is unsigned after next year and him and the team apparently have very different ideas as to his worth
12:14
Comment From Patrick
Thanks for chatting. Is Kennys Vargas worth picking up in a 12-team dynasty? Any thoughts on floor/ceiling?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: He’s worth a stash, though I don’t think he’ll be a star. Depends who the other choice for a stash would be.
12:16
Comment From Dave
Hurray for Chad Jenkins! Literally throwing 6 shutout innings despite weaving in and out of trouble all the time it seemed.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Well, he was a starter originally. The Jays pen might be damn tired now.
12:17
Comment From austin
does ian kennedy get traded? what are the most likely landing spots if he does?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: August trades, you don’t really have possible landing spots – it’s a complete unknown until you see who claims on waivers.
12:18
Dan Szymborski: I am unaware of whether they ran Kennedy through yet. Maybe they already have and I missed it, but I’m personally unaware at this moment.
12:20
Comment From Mason
Any idea when Danny Salazar get back into the Indians’ rotation? Thanks.
12:20
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s going to be gone long.
12:20
Comment From Mike
Can Anibal Sanchez get back in time for the fantasy playoffs, say like 4 weeks from now?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: I believe it very likely that he does. It’s a pectoral thing, so if it’s feeling well, I expect him to get back in teh swing of things pretty quickly. It’s not a situation in which Jim Andrews hears the cash register that I referred to earlier
12:21
Comment From Marc
Second Wild Card in the AL looks to be the most exciting playoff race?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: That or NL Central
12:22
Dan Szymborski: I still expect Detroit to eventually put away the Royals
12:23
Comment From Clownfeet
Hi! Do you think Jesse Winker has a good chance at securing a FT job with the Reds next spring, or does the wrist injury set him back?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the wrist will be a huge deal – they’ve been careful with it and last I heard, he’s not going under the knife. Even with the Reds general lack of OF depth, I think next spring a bit too aggressive for himt oe get a full-time job (and certainly aggressive for Jocketty)
12:24
Comment From Josh in DC
How do you feel about the Shane Victorino contract now? My opinion is that flag fly forever, so it was worth it. You?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it was a bad contract, I think this year’s just been worse than you expect on average. It happens.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: Good contracts sometimes look terrible and bad ones sometimes work out. I do enough projection work to know how very uncertain the future can be.
12:25
Comment From Through the Mooking Glass
Word on the street is the Phils are scouting the Red Sox hard… any chance a Hamels/Mookie deal gets done this August or Off season? Trade seems to make a lot of sense for both sides.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it happens.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: For one, the Phillies have an idea that they’re going to get a *ton* for Hamels.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: And yes, there’s good reason to price Hamels better than his surplus value, because the value of actually having him and having him under contract are real.
12:26
Dan Szymborski: But it’s not so much that he’s worth the package he insisted on from the Phillies.
12:26
Dan Szymborski: This year, he’s not going anywhere. He’s already been claimed on revocable waivers by the Cubs and that didn’t work out.
12:26
Dan Szymborski: From what I’ve heard, it wasn’t even close.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: If it’s Betts for Hamels, even though Betts has more surplus value, you probably take that deal.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Problem is, unless the Phillies come way down in price, they’re not going to take just Betts for Hamels
12:28
Dan Szymborski: The Phillies are likely to want something like Betts, Owens, and Vazquez for Hamels. Which won’t (and shouldn’t) happen.
12:28
Comment From Joliet Jake
Hi. There’s some talk that the Nats are going to call up Michael Taylor. Where do you see the floor/ceiling for him?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: They already announced the callup!
12:30
Dan Szymborski: Taylor’s definitely more interesting than he was this time last year – 2014’s really his first really solid prospecty season
12:30
Dan Szymborski: I mean, he’s been a prospect, but a lot of it was based on the possibility that he’d hit later
12:32
Dan Szymborski: I think I’d call his average outcome a legit starting OF for awhile.
12:32
Comment From PieTraynee
What sort of slash line do you see Polanco ending the year with?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: I think about where it is now – he’s hitting around what should have been expecte
12:33
Comment From Cubby
Hi. Is Ben Paulsen hitting himself into a permanent 1B gig with the Rockies next season? Thanks!
12:34
Dan Szymborski: Wouldn’t go that far. He’s already in his prime years and doesn’t have any real prospect label to keep him getting jobs
12:34
Dan Szymborski: And Justin Morneau is still under contract.
12:34
Dan Szymborski: Now, you could say “But they can trade Justin Morneau, Dan!” but while they can, there’s no evidence that the Rockies actually making personnel decisions in any kind of logical fashion
12:35
Dan Szymborski: For all they did at the trade deadline, the front office could have just sat around watching the complete run of F Troop and eating their own boogers.
12:35
Comment From austin
for fantasy, would you rather have alcantara or wong ROS? also i can’t remember if you’re one of those writers who’s opposed to fantasy or not
12:36
Dan Szymborski: I’m not opposed to fantasy by any means – I play a lot of fantasy and do write the occasional fantasy-focused column. It’s just that I don’t like to sprinkle heavily in chats because you get a lot of very specific fantasy questions that aren’t really that interesting to all the readers
12:38
Dan Szymborski: Now, “Is Joe Schmo overvalued in fantasy?” is a good question that would be applicable to a lot of people. But “which 2 should I keep of Joe Schmo, Kendrick Schmendrick, Rick Prick, or Huck Schmuck?” don’t tend to be applicable.
12:38
Comment From Dan
Do you answer fantasy football questions?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: At times. There’s always a chance that I’ll answer a question on practically any subject.
12:39
Comment From @AnalyticsPlant
May all the naysayers finally note that you and I are not a union of analytical souls…and Ruben wanted to join us, but he was too busy not caring about what you do.
12:39
Dan Szymborski: When did we go from “Keith Law is Analytics Plant!” to “Dan Szymborski is Analytics Plant?”
12:40
Dan Szymborski: I’ve never tweeted under any Twitter handle other than my name.
12:40
Comment From mystery gm
Who’s the better offseason target, Melky or Panda? how much do you offer each?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Well, depends on need. Panda may actually be a pretty good value considering how its’ perceived in a lot of quarters that he’s having a lousy year
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Depends if I need a 3B or not
12:41
Comment From Bob Loblaw
Is Piscotty a guy whose power will come eventually?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: He certainly looks like a dude that should hit for more power. But it doesn’t always happen, Ryan McGuire never hit for power and Country Breakfast is still only a moderate HR guy most years.
12:41
Comment From Barry
Do you think the Red Sox will fill their hole at 3B in free agency or trades? Is there any package they could put together for Kyle Seager?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: I think 3B they’ll likely fill internally
12:42
Comment From Shawn
Don’t know if there are any statistical methods to show this, but how do you think Pete Rose’s career would have looked like in this (jeter’s) era? I think he would have been ichiro without speed, and still gotten well over 3000 hits.
12:42
Dan Szymborski: B-R does have a quickie era changer, look under the Batting page.
12:42
Comment From Baron Von Waffles
What do you think of Chase Anderson moving forward into future seasons? Also, I heard that ZIPs and FIP all miscalculate pitchers that depend on a good changeup, is that true?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found any significant pitch-specific bias in ZiPS. ZiPS will miss on good changeup pitchers, but will also miss on good slider pitchers, good fastball pitchers, good curve pitchers, and good sinker pitches. Because as I said, the future is very uncertain no matter how good your methods are.
12:44
Comment From Vanderbilt Commodores
I am starting to believe the struggles of the Tigers bullpen comes as a results of their starters being so good. After opposing teams are done facing Scherzer, Price, Sanchez etc. seeing Nathan and company is a blessing. Is it possible the strength of the starters hurts the relievers?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: I’ve never found any evidence of this scenario.
12:44
Dan Szymborski: If you did, you’d see a pattern of relievers underperforming as a group on teams with excellent starters
12:45
Dan Szymborski: While I haven’t specifically looked at that, I don’t see a pattern of Tigers relievers undeperforming their expectations
12:45
Dan Szymborski: I think Detroit’s bigger issue is that they’ve just generally done a lazy, lousy job at putting together a good pen after the first guy or two
12:47
Comment From Vic
Robert Stephenson is having a tough year at Double A. Just a bump, or a reduced ceiling?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: I still like him, but you definitely have to call his loss of control enough to knock him down a little bit.
12:48
Dan Szymborski: He’s still got the blazing fastball and if he’s still walking guys next year, he’s very likely to end up in the bullpen
12:48
Dan Szymborski: And he could be an excellent reliever, but he wouldn’t have the same value
12:49
Comment From Xolo
Do the Rangers move Beltre to make room for Gallo or shift the latter to the outfield?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: They have a number of places they could play Gallo. I think the team’s taking a wait-and-see approach on how to use him in the majors
12:50
Dan Szymborski: If they bounceback with a healthier season earlier on next year, they’ll be inclined to keep Beltre around. But if things go south and it’s smart to do the whole major surgery thing, Beltre has significant trade value. But I doubt they go into the offseason seriously looking to trade Beltre
12:51
Comment From Sandy Kaz
Wondering if you read this solid piece? http://www.hardballtimes.co…
12:52
Dan Szymborski: I have. It’s a fun piece of work.
12:52
Comment From Larry David
Who pays for all of these TJ surgeries? The teams? The player? I don’t know how that’s worked into a contract or whatever.
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Teams. Parts are covered by workers comp insurance, but the CBA requires team to pay the cost of baseball injuries.
12:53
Comment From PieTraynee
Dry Land by Charlie Wilmoth to answer the baseball book question. It is Pirates-centric though.
12:54
Dan Szymborski: I’m actually halfway through Wilmoth’s book and have enjoyed it. Still, I haven’t read a ton of books this year so a rankign would be unfair!
12:54
Comment From Fowler
Do you think Kim Ng ever gets a chance to be a GM?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:54
Comment From fats
Of the two, would you rather have Rasmus or Gose as your starting CF in 2015?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Ramsus
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Rasmus
12:55
Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think Gose will ever contribute enough offensively to be a legit starter in CF
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Ramsus is a Xenogears boss.
12:56
Comment From Guest
What do the Sox do with Jackie Bradley Jr… hitless since July 26th
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Don’t know what’s going on with him – there was a stretch at which it seemed he was coming around, but he’s just been awful. Probably needs to get his swing back in the minors at this point
12:56
Comment From Alex
Can we talk about Kyle Hendricks for a second? He’s not going to be a front line guy, but looking over his numbers it seems like he could be a solid back end guy. Oliver’s projections seem to agree with that, but nobody’s talking about him. Any thoughts?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be a solid back end guy too. You don’t hear a ton of him because more command-y type of pitching prospects generally aren’t that exciting (and don’t have ceilings as high)
12:59
Comment From Alex
Why did the Rays send Nick Franklin to AAA, but kept Smyly in the rotation?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Service time
1:00
Dan Szymborski: If Franklin is in AAA for now, he’ll still be short at full year of service time by end of 2014
1:00
Comment From Vic
Any news on McCuthcen’s rib?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: They want him back as quickly as possible (and so does Mc).
1:00
Dan Szymborski: It’s an avulsion fracture, so it’s more cartilage based than a regular ol’ rib fracture
1:01
Dan Szymborski: And can frequently heal on its own given rest. The DL remains a possibility. They only have a couple more days to make a decision though because after that, you lose the benefit of additional retraoctive DL stings
1:02
Dan Szymborski: stints
1:02
Dan Szymborski: A player can only be placed on DL retroactively until 10 days after the injury occurred.
1:02
Comment From Brad
Any concern for the Red Sox with Cecchini’s season in the minors this year?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: Yes, he’s really struggled this year. He hadn’t been overly passive in the minors previously, but AAA pitchers have gone right at him this year and he hasn’t made them pay.
1:03
Dan Szymborski: Jeremy Hermida Disease.
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Now, I wouldn’t say he’s done, but his future’s a lot cloudier.
1:04
Dan Szymborski: You want to see guys make adjustments as they face harder competition.
1:04
Comment From Royals Fan
As a Royals’ fan with a philosophical objection to almost every move the front office has made, when is it time to set that aside and enjoy the ride?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: You can do both.
1:04
Comment From stdeve
is it just me or is the power struggle over the next commissioner like game of thrones, only without a realistic chance of selig getting beheaded at some point?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Certainly got more interesting – several of the more influential owners have soured on Rob Manfred
1:06
Dan Szymborski: this is usually what happens in the end – every time there’s beena new commish, there’s a group of owners that want a war hawk commish that’ll go to war with the MLBPA
1:07
Comment From Scott
Fiers gonna be great rest of season?
1:07
Comment From Baron Von Waffles
In Dave’s article he mentioned that you shouldn’t run a player through waviers twice. What happens if you do?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: In the same waiver period, the second time they become *non* revocable waivers.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: So if Hamels is placed on waivers in August and someone claims him, they’ve got him. For free.
1:07
Comment From Guest
Is Chris Davis a non-tender candidate at this point? Half-joking but really…
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Probably not.
1:07
Comment From Big joe mufferaw
Do you see the Nats shopping Harper? It seems like things could go south very fast between the two.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: No.
1:08
Comment From Moosejaw Binkins
Do you think Choo is finally healthy and his good hitting is legit?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure he’ll be completely healthy this year, but it’s certainly nice to see his last couple weeks. Even re-discovered that whole “home run” thing that some guys do
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I still think the contract ends up badly and doesn’t look great looking back at it, but he’s certainly better than his seasonal line
1:09
Comment From CuriousGeorge
my buddy is convinced the orioles will win the AL. He’s not into advanced stats so i didn’t bother explaining them outplaying their periphs. What are your thoughts? I wanted to scoff at them getting far in the playoffs…
1:09
Dan Szymborski: The problem the O’s have is a matchup thing with the A’s/Tigers
1:09
Dan Szymborski: In almost every playoff game, the O’s will have the lesser starting pitcher
1:10
Dan Szymborski: A lot of the O’s success is that they’ve avoided any truly horrific starting pitching and they’ve gotten a lot from the back end of the roster
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Jimenez’s ERA is what, 86? That’s below-average, but actually above-average for a 5th starter
1:12
Dan Szymborski: And the back end of the pen, Brach, McFarland, have been decent. and they’ve mixed their DH/OF time shares fairly well (though Lough stunk)
1:12
Dan Szymborski: The problem is that these tend to be more valuable things in a marathon than a sprint.
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Detroit was my favorite last week from a WS odds standpoint (despite the A’s being the better team), but the new fogginess of the AL Central combined with more clarity in the AL West and I think Oakland’s the team to beat
1:13
Comment From Vanderbilt Commodores
Does the public (fans) have access to the list of guys run through the waiver wire? Where do you see the details? Like you mentioned about Kennedy..
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Not that I know of. You frequently gotta grease people inside baseball for that info
1:13
Comment From Toots
Why is alex avila so bad :(
1:14
Dan Szymborski: He’s using a Power Glove.
1:14
Comment From Raz
How does zips account for in season pitcher velocity changes?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: In-season, it doesn’t. The in-season model is simpler.
1:14
Dan Szymborski: For practical reasons.
1:14
Comment From Brad
That would be a joke…Hamels for like Betts and Webster maybe?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: *Maybe*
1:14
Comment From Bill
Any guesses at what’s going on with Oscar Taveras? Still small sample size, or is he having real problems adjusting to major-league pitching, or what?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: Not worried yet
1:16
Comment From Dayton Moore
Think the Royals will overtake the Tigers in the AL Central?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Still think the Tigers will edge them out.
1:16
Comment From Jays fan
Melky Cabrera reached base safely 8 times yesterday…first time that was done since 1972! Jays are going to have a hard time replacing his bat next year.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Melky’s making a lot of people look silly
1:16
Comment From Scrapper
Based on their dominant performances in the minors, I would assume that the projections for Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and Addison Russell continue to trend up. I assume that you are buying as to all three?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:16
Comment From Brandon
Yanks or Blue Jays ROS for 2nd place in the AL East?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Still think Toronto will edge it out, despite their craptastic trade deadline
1:17
Comment From Shawn
Joe Schmo really overrated this year IMO
1:17
Comment From Double Simcoe
re: fantasy questions, they may be specific and not interesting to all readers, but you can derive general thoughts/principles from specific questions, and that is VERY useful to the majority of us!
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Those are the ones I choose.
1:17
Comment From On The Edge of My Seat
Is there a site similar to Fangraphs but for football?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: Football Outsiders
1:18
Comment From Guest
Do you think Britton being this successful in the bullpen means the ship has sailed on him as a starter?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: This ship’s sailed and the pilgrims are already building their houses.
1:18
Comment From THE average sports fan
Is the lack of MLB depth for the Reds a legit reason to fire Jocketty?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: One of many. The Reds are a poorly assembled roster.
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Their plan involved nothing going wrong. Which is usually a bad idea
1:20
Dan Szymborski: The Reds are this year’s Market Garden team: something that could have been successful if the pieces fell into place, but very poorly equipped for any nasty surprises
1:20
Dan Szymborski: You look at their lineup/rotation going into the season and think “hey, tha’ts pretty good” but then you realize how many Plan Bs are Skip Schumaker.
1:21
Comment From Chris
The MLB committee votes this Thursday on Selig’s successor, and they’ve chosen…you! What is the first order of business as MLB’s new commissioner?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: Tweet about what a terrible choice MLB made.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I have the demeanor necessary
1:22
Dan Szymborski: And the commish job is an advocate for the owners generally
1:22
Dan Szymborski: But I know you’er just trying to trick me into what I would do as commish without directly asking!
1:22
Dan Szymborski: I’d send a message that retaliation games on the field will not be happening.
1:23
Dan Szymborski: And I’d want to change the instant replay system. It shouldnt’ be a gamed thing. Simply have an independent guy in the booths with the power to call plays for review. None of this manager challenge nonses
1:23
Dan Szymborski: The idea should be getting calls right, not making getting calls right part of the strategy
1:23
Comment From Guest
this year Dombrowski has made some dud moves (Fister trade, bullpen construction), but also some great moves (Kinsler/Fielder trade). is he generally considered one of the best GMs?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: He’s a good, not a great, GM.
1:24
Comment From a eskpert
Bo Jackson had 3 80 grade tools. Are there any players today that could be said to have such? Cespedes, Puig, and Trout seem the most likely candidates, but they still don’t seem to be at that level.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: They’re all better baseball *players* than Bo.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: The thing about Bo is that he didnt’ really have much in the way of baseball skills. He essentially “brute forced” his way into being a solid baeball player for a few years, through his sheer athleticism
1:26
Dan Szymborski: I had to sound all old and fogey, but it’s hard to really understand Bo if you didn’t see him, the guy just *oozed* athleticism in every action
1:26
Dan Szymborski: The only reason that NIke campaign worked is that he was such an amazing athlete that you *could* see hi succeed in anything he tried
1:27
Dan Szymborski: If you get a chance, try to track down the 1989 All-Star game
1:27
Comment From Scott
Saw you posted my fires question at 1:07 but no answer. Just an oversight?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Wait, did I post a Q I didn’t answer?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Oh, lol, I did
1:28
Dan Szymborski: I’m Fiers believer – though he’d turn it around from 2013. I still think 2012 is most likely his true level of ability
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Moreso than ZiPS was
1:29
Comment From Jim
If you are going to Vegas, putting money on who is the next commish, who do you put your money on to win this position? (all have same odds).
1:29
Dan Szymborski: If all have same odds, I’ll still take Manfred over any one specific other commish
1:29
Comment From Cole Hamels
Hamels was claimed by the Cubs
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Did I not say that?
1:29
Dan Szymborski: I did! 12:26
1:30
Comment From Scrapper
What are the chances that the Cubs sign either Lester or Scherzer in the off-season?
1:30
Dan Szymborski: I think quite good. At the very least, I think they’re finally at the point at hwich it makes sense to make a big pitching add
1:31
Comment From Did you see that game yesterday?
Hey Dan, Chad Jenkins had an .861 WPA pitching in relief in yesterday’s 19 inning game. I was trying to see if that was the highest single-game WPA of this year for a pitcher, and I couldn’t find a leaderboard anywhere. The most I could find was that A.J. Burnett pitched a .9-something WPA back in 2005. Any advice?
1:31
Dan Szymborski: B-R’s play index.
1:31
1:32
Dan Szymborski: B-R has top 5 WPA pitching games this year as Chad Jenkins 8/10, Wheeler on my birthday, Garza 7/5, Teheran 4/16, Alvarez 6/3, Lackey 6/18`
1:32
Comment From Sammi
Can the Cards fix Masterson?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: I’m still optimistic.
1:32
Comment From Rob
Every time a closer comes into a non-save situation, the announcers immediately warn that closers struggle in non-closing situations. Do you know if anyone has checked to see if this is actually true? Because I feel like this is could easily be a myth driven by confirmation bias.
1:32
Dan Szymborski: I looked at this a couple years ago for a closer piece I did and found no evidence of this
1:32
Comment From ar
football outsiders : fangraphs :: analytics plant : analytics department. Advanced Football Analytics is more similar, imo.
1:33
Comment From SMC
Re: Reds. The trouble is that literally *every* team can say “I have a shot of nothing goes wrong.” Take the Marlins pre-season: we can contend if Fernandez is healthy, and Heaney comes up and dominates, and Stanton is healthy all year, and …
1:33
Comment From Bob
Lately it seems fans, or rather, trolls, seem to delight in using “roiders” as an insult to other fanbases best players, regardless of whether they’ve been linked to steroids or not. That doesn’t seem like very healthy baseball discussion.
1:33
Dan Szymborski: The whole way steroids is talked about frequently isn’t very healthy, adult, or intelligent.
1:33
Comment From #KeepNotGraphs
But after you are elected the new commish, you have a face-to-face with Peter Angelos and ________
1:34
Dan Szymborski: FARTS
1:34
Dan Szymborski: I’d hang out with farts before Peter Angelos.
1:34
Comment From JT
Bo Jackson was the single greatest athlete I’d ever seen: he was the proverbial bull in a china shop. Only LeBron or young Shaq ever came remotely close for me.
1:35
Comment From Did you see that game yesterday?
Is there any way to look up single-game WPA leaderboards on the internet? Say, by season?
1:35
Dan Szymborski: Play index!
1:35
Dan Szymborski: On that note, time for me to shuffle off for antoher week.
1:36
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me, you can read my work at ESPN.com, projectiosn and chats here at FanGraphs, and I’m DSzymborski on Twitter/Steam (and Zim 1236 on Hearthstone if you’re playing)
1:36
Dan Szymborski: Also http://www.twitch.tv/zimsmash but I’m still figuring it out!


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Costanza
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Costanza
1 year 11 months ago

All of Bo Jackson’s highlights from the 1989 all star game — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfmqL0K7wDI

nard
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nard
1 year 11 months ago

Trolololololade deadline.

Thurman Merman
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Thurman Merman
1 year 11 months ago

O’s fan here.

Dan’s dead on with his analysis of the Orioles and their postseason chances. The team is consistently underrated by the stathead community (not meant to be derogatory), partially, I think, because Duquette’s strength as a GM is his ability to acquire high quality organizational depth. This strength is obviously very difficult to quantify, as he steadily acquires these reclamation projects throughout the season. For three years now, cast offs and role-players have made huge contributions to the team. Some credit also goes to Buck here for knowing when to play guys, how long to ride a hot streak, etc.

That said, Dan is absolutely right about the team being built for a marathon. The Orioles probably have a better back of the rotation than just about every other team in the majors. They also probably have the worst 1/2. If it isn’t dead last, it’s got to be in the bottom three. Depth, balance and a strong bullpen will in all likelihood get the Orioles to the playoffs, but at that point, they’re going to have to hope they get hot at the right time, because those Price/Tillman and Lester/Chen match ups are less than ideal.

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