Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/12/13

11:58
Dan Szymborski: For your mild amusement, here is the Satrap of Snark, the Plenipotentiary of Persiflage, the Mesomedes of Metaphors, and the Dan Szymborski of Self-Delusion: Dan Szymborski!
11:58
Comment From Tom
Universal DH – yay or nay?
11:59
Dan Szymborski: I’m that rare person that doesn’t have a strong opinion. I grew up watching both AL and NL games, and I’m not violently for or against the DH like 99% of other people.
12:00
Dan Szymborski: But purely on a “does it make sense?” standpoint, with interleague play every day, it makes sense to have a universal DH, given that the scattershot nature of needing a DH prevents NL teams from stashing fill-ins at AAA for the set, planned DH run
12:00
Comment From Tom
If you could make one change to MLB, what would it be?
12:00
Dan Szymborski: Change the revenue sharing so that 1% goes to Dan Szymborski

12:00
Comment From Tom
Want to just email me those GAR rankings? I’ll sign a nondisclosure agreement!
12:00
Dan Szymborski: Tom’s Plan: Get there super-quickly so that Dan can’t not pick your Qs!
12:01
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t done more with them, simply because I have them on the backburner while the season’s going on. It’s something I probably won’t get back to until after the playoffs.
12:01
Comment From Geoff
have you considered making a professional wrestling version of zips?
12:01
Dan Szymborski: Not quite as much fun, given that it would essentially be a WWE/TNA Writer projection system.
12:02
Comment From HeHoWhoa
Sonny Gray’s curveball is a majestic unicorn that will explode your brain if you look at it directly in the eyes.
12:02
Comment From saskatunes
Deep league and I could use speed and OBP… can Jordan Schafer get enough PT to help me?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: Probably not.
12:03
Dan Szymborski: He was never really getting a ton of playing time before the injury, after all
12:04
Dan Szymborski: and he’s been out for like a month and a half. Plus, you probably already ahve the best Schafer production in the bag already
12:04
Comment From Pete
Is there a good way to analyze pitch f/x data to determine whether the pitcher intentionally threw at the batter?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure you can really track intention
12:04
Dan Szymborski: You need soul f/x for that.
12:05
Comment From saskatunes
Going to get a chance to see the dan bejar solo tour?
12:05
Dan Szymborski: depends where he goes. ahven’t looked
12:05
Comment From Bret
O’s at C position this year – .276 OBP, at 2B – .275 OBP, at DH .273 OBP. Markakis has zero power. The pitching has been subpar. How are they 13 over .500 with 3 automatic outs all season and a below average staff?
12:06
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12:06
Comment From Mark
What does a Colby Rasmus extension look like? 4/55 with a 15 team option?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: That’s the kind of thing I can give a better answer to over twitter
12:06
Comment From Dan
Can we get some Jose Abreu MLE’s pretty please? :)
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I have to answer other questions in the meantime
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Or maybe not, I thought I had his cuban stats handy
12:07
Comment From Whats nicer?
Sonny Gray’s curveball or a giant slab of apple pie?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Gray doesn’t lead to obesity
12:07
Comment From Inanimate Carbon Rod
How long before the Royals sign me to play 2B?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: I thought you were named Chris Getz?
12:07
Comment From Guest
Is Mike O’Neill the next Cardinal to come up and outproduce his talent, a la Craig, M. Carpenter, David Freese, etc? I’ve never seen a guy with his skill set before.
12:08
Dan Szymborski: I really worry about the walk machine guys in the minors
12:08
Dan Szymborski: But obviously he’s earned a shot
12:08
Comment From Justin
who are your ten playoff teams? how do the playoffs shake out?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: BOS, DET, TEX (OAK v. TB), ATL, STL, LA (CIN v. PIT)
12:09
Dan Szymborski: at this minute, I’m thinking a Detroit vs. Braves or Cards series
12:09
Comment From Truth
Universal DH? Why do I never hear of universal pitchers-hitting-for-themselves? Not that I care either way, just curious.
12:10
Dan Szymborski: It’s less popular and removes some older popular sluggers like David Ortiz from the mix
12:10
Dan Szymborski: And the NL and the low minors when 2 NL teams are playing are the last places on earth not to use a DH
12:10
Comment From Sammy
Am I in an alternate universe? It looks like Dan Haren has been pretty fantastic for the last 6 weeks or so. That is all.
12:11
Dan Szymborski: It’s about time. I thought it was a good signing, but it was looking pretty fugly until his current run
12:11
Comment From Spencer
With 180 innings, what kind of pitcher is Alex Wood? Could you see him reaching 180 innings?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: He’s a lot of fun, he knows what he’s doing with his pitches
12:13
Dan Szymborski: I still think, however, his future is as a reliever
12:13
Comment From Internet User Since 1995
David Lough + Justin Maxwell = Royals aren’t so stupid after all?
12:14
Comment From Bkgeneral
Do you see Ludwick making a big contribution to Reds?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: wait, where did my ansewr go?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: They still have an uphill climb. It’s not just the games behind, but how many guys you have to leapfrog
12:14
Dan Szymborski: There it is. Out of order. WTF?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: On Ludwick, I think they’re expecting too much of him.
12:15
Dan Szymborski: He had that huge run last year, but he’s not really a 130 OPS+ guy
12:15
Comment From Internet User Since 1995
To follow up on the Lough/Maxwell platoon… Can you run ZiPS to output what a player would do against only opposite-handed pitchers?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have it set up to do that explicitly without a little extra work.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: But even in straight platoons, players do end up seeing some of the wrong pitchers as well
12:17
Comment From JD
What do you see from Pujols in the future? Will he get healthier and bounce back to near 2011 levels or is 2012/2013 the real Pujols?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll bounce back a bit.
12:17
Dan Szymborski: He still has some highlights left, but they won’t be St. Louis-type highlight seasons
12:17
Dan Szymborski: At the time, I described it in the sense of the Cardinals get the Beatles while the Angels get the solo stuff. Now, there’s been a lot of Ringo, but there’s some George Harrison stuff left in him
12:17
Comment From RotoLando
Eno has his beer thing. What -graphs spinoff would you like to do in the future?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: DanGraphs – graphing the sheer derangement of Dan’s mind.
12:18
Comment From The Oriole Bird
According to coolstandings, the NL playoffs look pretty well settled. But the Orioles are looming around 50%, trying to crack the wild card party. What do you think the chances are that two (or more) teams tie for the second wild card spot in the AL?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: 10-20%? That’s the kind of thing that I’d like ZiPS to answer as that kind of thing’s hard to calculate in your head
12:19
Comment From LarryA
Turn around in store for Sabathia?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: To a degree – I think he’s more likely to be a durable #2 guy through the rest of his career than an ace any more
12:20
Comment From Chief Wahoo
I was pretty high on Cody Allen and his chances of stealing the Cleveland closer position. Now after a month of sporadic implosions I’m not quite so sure. How do you see the Indians bullpen situation for the next couple of years?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: Actually, I think your first inclination was correct. He’s the guy they have up there who has the best tools to be a closer long-term
12:21
Dan Szymborski: He was drafted just two years ago – you can’t expect him not to have a rough patch here and there
12:22
Dan Szymborski: I think he has more upside than Bryan Shaw does, more likely to be a dominating reliever long-term
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Or as long-term as relievers are.
12:23
Dan Szymborski: Outside of the few elites, closers have shorter shelf-life than mayonnaise the dollar store marks down to 50 cents
12:23
Comment From ctTiger
what do you think of JA Happ? any hope for him or destined for DFA?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: He’s 5th starter material.
12:23
Comment From Matt (Steinway)
DH should be universal, and I’m an NL fan through and through. I hate watching pitchers try to hit. It’s boring, it kills rallies, they are terrible hitters, and they don’t deserve to get 2-3 at-bats a game. Give those at-bats to a competent, qualified major league hitter, and don’t risk injury to a pitcher by making them swing and run.
12:23
Comment From LarryA
Does offseason Zips put any stock into how a player finished a season, or are all accrued stats the same?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found much value in the month distribution.
12:24
Comment From Matt
What do you make of Wade Miley?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: He is what he is. A solid mid-rotation guy, but he’s probably already hit his ceiling
12:24
Comment From Guest
Wieters extension with Baltimore? Or is he a goner? What could he get on the open market?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: Now’s a good time to try to get an extension as he’s had a pretty disappointing season
12:25
Comment From The Oriole Bird
Brian Roberts is really just an expensive team chaplain at this point, right?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Pretty much. I guess the O’s get credit for their loyalty in giving him chances every time he’s healthy, but there’s no reason to include him in any kind of plan
12:26
Comment From Bret
Would you ever consider ZIPS for collegiate players?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: I’d consider just about anything that’s useful.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Don’t know how super-useful it would be to me, though. I know that sounds terrible, but I’m a practical guy
12:28
Dan Szymborski: I’m a working writer, after all, not so much a working sabermetrician. Tools that aid me in writing interesting, intellectually honest stories, are tools that i’m more likely to develop
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Again, I’m not sure how to say that without coming across as douchey.
12:29
Comment From Mariano vs Cabrera
was a hell of a battle.
12:29
Comment From AJT
Are you planning on getting Batman: Arkham Origins?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Probably
12:29
Comment From zack
will anyone pick newly dfa’d outfielder delmon?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: He’ll end up with a AAA job in the end.
12:29
Comment From Justin
Dodgers are 67-50 with 45 games left. Is a 95-win season in play?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: 28-17 is certainly possible.
12:30
Dan Szymborski: Probalby a few wins less.
12:30
Comment From Can I be Franc(oeur)?
Is it possible Jeff Francoeur has the best arm in the history of baseball?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: Of players that I’ve actually seen, it’s still Barfield
12:31
Dan Szymborski: and I’m sure Clemente and Kaline fans will get ya
12:31
Comment From stevenwchoi
Braves or Cards from the NL? What separates them from the Dodgers in your opinion?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: I think they’re deeper teams overall. But again, all this is very clsoe. Liking a division winner over another division winner is like saying you like a team to be 13.5% instead of 12.5% or somethign
12:32
Comment From Crusty
Do the FG’s fielding and baserunning WAR stats update only cone a week, on Sunday nights?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Literally have no idea. I’m just about the worst person to ask this kind of thing.
12:33
Comment From Spencer
I ate the answer. I ate the whole fucking thing. In one sitting.
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Ah, the side benefits of trying to answer as many questions as I can – I inevitably end up 20 minutes behind and am completely confued by comments referring to answers
12:33
Comment From Eminor3rd
How many buds pure would you offer for Jose Abreu?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: I’m always a sucker for TF2 questions. Probably a million buds, given that I think they’re about $30 right now.
12:34
Dan Szymborski: For those unaware, it’s a true story – virtual Ipod buds in a first-person shooter fetch more money than *actual* ipod buds that you can physically own and use in the universe
12:35
Comment From Spencer
How bleak has Kyle Gibson’s outlook become?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: I woudln’t say bleak, but he hasn’t looked that great in the majors. Ignoring the stats for now, it looks like he’s just going out there and chucking the ball
12:35
Comment From Crusty
If you’re Arte Moreno, would you be presenting Trout’s agent with a 10/$300 contract offer, ASAP?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Yes.
12:36
Comment From Braves staff
When Maholm comes back, its going to be Minor-Teheran-Maholm-Beachy-Medlen with Wood getting bumped to the bullpen, right? But should it be?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I still think Wood’s a better fit for the pen
12:36
Comment From Andrew
Gyorko turn it around this season? Starting with trip to Coors?
12:37
Dan Szymborski: I still like Gyorko, I think he’ll be fine
12:37
Comment From LarryA
BasementSexDungeonGraphs
12:37
Comment From Matt
If, for example, the save rule was changed so you only got a save with a 2 run lead rather than 3 do you think managers would still bring in their “closer” up 3 in the 9th?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: No, because using closers has become more and more based on whether something is a save rather than something being a good idea
12:39
Comment From Gila Monster
What is wrong with Pablo Sandoval? Why is he so awful all of a sudden? He has a.whopping .279 wOBA. Odd for a guy that makes a ton of contact
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Honestly not sure. He looked a few weeks ago as if he was getting back in track.
12:40
Dan Szymborski: My gut tells me that his foot is still giving him problems
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Or there’s something else.
12:40
Comment From Cobb
Expectations for me ROS? Will I be as good as a cobb salad or as bad as Cobb the movie?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: I actually liked Cobb the movie
12:41
Dan Szymborski: and I’m not big on cobb salad – i prefer field greens to various lettuci.
12:41
Dan Szymborski: I’m still bullish though.
12:41
Comment From zack
The giants have been playing Jeff Francoeur in center field. Good god
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Well, at least it shows some realization that he can’t hit well enough to play a corner…
12:42
Comment From Gabe
Besides Stanton and CarGo, what good, young players might be available in a trade this offseason?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Stanton’s really the most likely to be available.
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Teams don’t like giving up good, young players after all.
12:43
Comment From Matt (Steinway)
Mets 1B of the future, Ike or Wilmer? Do you fear the mullet?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: I still think they give Ike Davis a last chance to forget his 2012 season
12:45
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Mets would experiment so much wih FLores at 2B at AAA if they were ready to just stuff him at 1B in 2014
12:45
Comment From stevenwchoi
Best 1-2-3 SP punch in the majors right now?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Correia-Pelfrey-Diamond
12:46
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, some might say that Verlander-Scherzer-Sanchez is scarier, but they only help 1 team
12:46
Dan Szymborski: CoPD helps 29 teams
12:46
Comment From John Stamos
ROS: Ethier or Ludwick
12:46
Dan Szymborski: Oh, ludwick
12:46
Comment From UncleKruncle
Would a high career BABIP be a good sign that the hitter has an elite hit tool?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: It depends how long the career is.
12:47
Dan Szymborski: When you’re talking about an up-and-comer, you should never get excited about BABIP, because you’re dealing with too short a history to be sure of it
12:47
Comment From Baroque
What kind of numbers do you see Danny Salazar putting up for the ROS?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: I think he may be a real 105 ERA+ guy right now
12:48
Comment From zack
the shark has really been struggling lately. Any concern or just a bad stretch?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: I’m not worried yet. Except, of course, that worry that always exists that a pitcher has a secret surprise lurking in his shoulder parts
12:48
Comment From zack
Who would you rather have for the next 3 years: Jason Heyward or Upton?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Heyward
12:49
Comment From zack
IS it just me or does AROD look better at the plate than has in two or three years? Also, I am rooting him to go on a monster 2 month run just to piss everyone off.
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t think he looked all that *great* but he at least seemed like he was playing with less injuries nagging him
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I’m kinda rooting for that too. Baseball’s heavy-handed nature has made me root for him.
12:51
Dan Szymborski: If I run baseball, when I hear news of Biogenesis, I simply write a press release with someting to the effect of “Baseball has the most stringent drug-testing in sports and as new information comes forward, we’ll strive to be at the forefront at modifying the Joint Drug Agreement to include new drugs and methods that game thte system.”
12:51
Dan Szymborski: And then never talk about biogenesis again
12:51
Comment From Chris Davis
If all 42 of my home runs were strikeouts, I would be slugging 16 points higher than Jamey Carroll.
12:52
Comment From Bob Loblaw
Do you think Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus will buy a timeshare together in the Maldives?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Do you know what I would pay to see? A show involving Selig and A-Rod buying a timeshare together, that they’re forced to live in without leaving the house for 3 months
12:53
Dan Szymborski: And it wouldn’t be somewhere cool, it would be in some shack in rural alabama or next to a landfill in jersey
12:53
Comment From LarryA
Now that Nate Silver is part of ESPN, is there truth the rumor of him stealing Zips for elections?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Wait, what? I’m not sure I get the question or the joke
12:54
Comment From zack
Who gets more PA’s next season: Delmon or Francoeur?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Frenchy
12:54
Dan Szymborski: They both suck, but Frenchy has the benefit of not slugging tourists
12:54
Dan Szymborski: For all his suckitude, at least Francoeur has the reputation of being a good guy, which goes a long way for a fringe player
12:54
Comment From Josef
O/U 4 years before Gabe Kapler is either a manager or GM?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Hard to fast-track a GM spot, but he’s shown that he’s thoughtful and that’ll get him some interesting job choices
12:55
Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
DH is inevitable. Just do it already.
12:55
Comment From AJT
Not that it’s a competition, but who do you think has the most viewers in their respective chat? DC? Jeff?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: I really have no idea, but I imagine Cammy would have the highest ratings
12:55
Dan Szymborski: He’s the face of FanGraphs, after all
12:55
Comment From Gila Monster
Would it be more fair to accuse Pujols of being older than 33? It actually seems likely.
12:56
Dan Szymborski: It would be less dickish, but I’d hardly describe it as more fair.
12:56
Dan Szymborski: I only know what I can prove.
12:56
Comment From Tom
Has Trout moved ahead of Harper, Machado, and Puig when we mention young talent in the game?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Already did. No knock on the others, but Trout is ZYXLEFABRISTIC
12:57
Dan Szymborski: In other words, so awesome, that a word describing him does not exist and there’s no reference in human history that makes derivation of such a word describing him possible
12:57
Comment From Graham
If you can only look at one offensive number for a player, what do you use? wOBA? wRC+? Something else?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: I’m going to get in trouble, but OPS+ is still a handy number and it’s been around a long time, so your audience will be better acclimated to it
12:58
Comment From Bruce
What more likely for 2014: Miggy hitting .250, or Dunn hitting .290?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: The former. Miggy’s more likely to have an injury than Dunn is to discover some magical uninjury
12:58
Comment From nucky
why not have an 8 batter order?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Kinda ruins the whole multiple of 3s thing baseball has going
12:59
Comment From zack
Has strasburg actually become underrated at this point? Its not like he’s bad (3.09 FIP, 84 xFIP-)
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Possibly – you don’t hear him talked about quite as much.
12:59
Comment From Tom
Thoughts on the Jack Clark/Albert Pujols rigmarole?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Very disappointed in Clark.
12:59
Comment From Chris
Do you see Cargo or David Wright back before the season is over?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: I think Wright’s season is over, but I expect Gonzalez to be just healthy enough that the Rockies bring him back
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Though if I had any say in it — I don’t obviously — CarGo’s season would be over now
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Rockies are done for ’13 – I do not want him testing that finger
1:00
Comment From filihok
Dan, why don’t batting runs, base running runs, fielding runs, positional runs, and replacement runs add up to runs above replacement?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: It depends on which site you’re using. For instance, BR’s tinkered a bit in recent years with what adjustments go where
1:01
Comment From Eminor3rd
RE: buds. It could have as much to do with how shitty real ipod earbuds sounds and fit as it does the silliness of TF2. But probably not, actually.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: I wear big headphones
1:02
Dan Szymborski: I can’t wear any kind of buds, I have these really small ear canals for some reason
1:02
Comment From Andy
So you’re saying the Pirates’ collapse has officially started and the Cards are going to win the division?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s any collapse, but I think the Cards are a significantly better team.
1:02
Comment From Guest
If Trout gets offered 10/300, does he accept?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Hard to tell. I don’t know how risk-averse he is
1:02
Dan Szymborski: I’d do it if I were him.
1:02
Comment From Justin
Wood’s a better fit for the pen based on…
1:03
Dan Szymborski: It’s improved, but I don’t think his loopy breaking stuff is really all that effective long-term
1:04
Dan Szymborski: that kunckle curvey thing isn’t Mussina-esque by a long shot
1:04
Dan Szymborski: now, if it keeps improving, maybe it’s a different story
1:04
Comment From DanDan
What’s up with Bruce Chen? He’s looked great.
1:05
Dan Szymborski: He’s always had that occasional run.
1:05
Dan Szymborski: His command has to be really on for him to be dominating – if it gets slightly off, he gets hit hard
1:05
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Who would be a realistic option for the Indians to add to the front of the rotation next season? via FA or trade
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, the FA market isn’t looking pretty
1:06
Dan Szymborski: either wait a year for Shields or hope Amaro sees reason with Lee. Otherwise, the best way to add a front of the rotation guy is to develop your own
1:06
Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
Did the Giants pick up Delmon yet to pair with Frenchy?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: That’s just mean.
1:07
Comment From Andrew
I dropped Beachy and now feel stupid. He’ll still struggle with his command this year, right?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: He’s looked better than I thought he would since comiong back. Even against the Rockies when they got a billion hits, he still looked better than that
1:08
Dan Szymborski: He was a bit up and down in the minors, so I don’t expect him to really be on track until he gets tos tart fresh in 2014
1:08
Comment From RSquared
Sox rotation starting to unravel. Lackey’s starting to lose his stuff, Dempster is hurt, Lester is retooling, where’s Waldo, er , Buchholz? Farrell pulling starters earlier, and the pen has to run on the PAW shuttle to keep live arms available. Do you project they can hold on with the latest performances or is it a blip?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: The rotation’s just been bad in August.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s going to have to keep trying to hold it together with glue and duct tape.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: As there really hasn’t been anybody who hasn’t come without questions.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: The only silver lining is the bullpen’s been better in the second half too
1:09
Comment From zack
As much press as he gets I feel like a lot of fans and analysts don’t really appreciate how awesome Miguel Cabrera has been. His 208 wRC+ is 24 points higher than Albert Pujols best season (184)
1:09
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to appreciate a terrific player when they’re terrific so much
1:10
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Do you think the Indians try to keep Kazmir around next year, considering the glut of mid to back-end starters that they already have? (Carrasco, Kluber, McAllister, Bauer, Salazar)
1:10
Dan Szymborski: I think they will. He’s really looked sharp here and there and the market doesn’t look that great
1:10
Comment From Eminor3rd
Should Francouer try to be a RP?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Why not? I’ve actually advocated that someone try to sign Frenchy to be a AAA pitcher
1:11
Dan Szymborski: I think if you can get the player to go along with it, practically every failed position player with a strong arm should at least be tried on the mound
1:11
Comment From RotoLando
Have you ever gone outside in jorts?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: I’ve actually never won jean shorts
1:11
Dan Szymborski: I have the world’s largest collection of old navy cargo shorts
1:12
Comment From stevenwchoi
Dee Gordon – in need of a change of scenery or just a career pinch runner/BU util?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Just not that good.
1:12
Comment From Rubby of the Rose
MLB The Show has terrible CPU GMs. My Road to the Show shortstop is an awesome major league 20 year old who should bat second, but no, 56 rating Mike Fontenot is there with his .175/.220/.230 slash line. He’s worse than the 2B in AA. WHY?????
1:12
Dan Szymborski: The CPU GMs tend to look at the skills more than the stats
1:12
Dan Szymborski: and doesn’t always want to start the FA clock
1:12
Dan Szymborski: AI is hard
1:13
Dan Szymborski: One thing we’re still missing is that AI revolution. It’s all mostly still brute force
1:13
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Would the Macho Man’s diving elbow have been as devastating if he had remained a catcher?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it’s the most useful move for a catcher
1:14
Dan Szymborski: Squatting behind the plate, you’re better off with some kind of leg-related submission
1:14
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Ignoring that this could stunt his overall development, would the Indians benefit from bringing up Lindor and putting him at SS and batting him low in the order? His defense should be far better than Asdrubal, and his bat can’t be much worse.
1:15
Dan Szymborski: The Carthaginian has been off again lately, but I think you’re underrating him a little still
1:15
Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
Chances Chris Johnson is the best line drive hitter in the history of baseball?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: If he is the best line drive hitter in history, that’s a sign that his existence is within a false vacuum and the braves have to be very careful not to destroy it
1:16
Comment From Dan
Jose Abreu through 2011 http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/ABREUcubaJ01.shtml
1:16
Comment From DTSS
If someone like Cliff Lee hits you, it was probably intentional.
1:16
Comment From Mark
Conversely to Mr. UncleKruncle, how many PA’s (or other data) is needed to conclude that a pitcher can sustain a low BABIP? Understand that he’s a rare cat, Kershaw seems to be able to do it. How much is defense-centered?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Without any team information, the break even point at which the player’s actual BABIP becomes as predictive as league average is at roughly 3000 PA.
1:17
Dan Szymborski: For BABIP above team, somewhere in the 2200-2500 TBF range
1:17
Comment From fats
are you seeing dan straily’s mustache right now? its probably a 20. or an 80. its polarizing
1:18
Dan Szymborski: All mustache growth should start in the offseason. You either have tos tart the season with a badass mustache or wait until next year
1:18
Dan Szymborski: If I were a player, I would use a sharpie and draw in the mustache of an opposing pitcher on my face every game in the most mocking way possible.
1:18
Dan Szymborski: OK, let’s call this the lightening round, where one can get enlightenment on any random question.
1:19
Comment From STiVo
Brett Lawrie: Actually good baseball player again?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s actually healthy
1:19
Dan Szymborski: The Jays didn’t go crazy trying to rush himback
1:19
Comment From Eminor3rd
Which is worse news for a pitcher? Bullet to the kidney or capsule tear?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Probably the capsule tear. Now, the second lost kidney is pretty bad
1:19
Comment From filihok
Totally unique interesting that only I’m asking right now: Puig or Myers?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: I think Puig has higher upside, but Myers safer
1:19
Comment From Concerned Parent
I have learned from this chat that video games lead to math skills and basement sex dungeons.
1:20
Comment From RotoLando
Which classic WWF heel’s persona should A-Rod adopt? I say Ted DiBiase.
1:20
Dan Szymborski: That would be awesome, though I don’t think A-Rod has the self-awareness to pull it off well
1:20
Dan Szymborski: Seriously, he should go full-on heel. *Embrace* the hatred. Let it power him
1:20
Dan Szymborski: Audience boos? Move your hands up in the air to beckon for you.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: Audience chants steroids at you afte ryou hit a home run? Mime an injection into your biceps and point to the scoreboard
1:21
Dan Szymborski: If you can’t not be the bad guy, play the bad guy
1:21
Comment From Matt (Steinway)
Why don;t they sell apple pie at baseball games? If I was in the marketing department at chevrolet, I would sponsor apple pie stands in every ball park.
1:22
Dan Szymborski: You’d have to transform it into a self contained apple pie hot pocket thing, like mcdonald’s apple pie
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Actual slices of apple pie would be a little unwiledy
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Salty seems to beat sweet in MLB concessions
1:22
Comment From SonnyCheeba
Do you know if FG MiLB are park adjusted?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Unless I missed something, they shouldn’t be
1:23
Comment From Anon21
Where do you see Brian McCann landing next season? Seems like 4-1 against the Braves resigning him, but as Gattismania has cooled they have to be at least contemplating a serious run at him.
1:23
Dan Szymborski: I think the Braves will try to bring him back, but won’t go into a bidding war
1:23
Dan Szymborski: I can see him ending up a yankee
1:24
Comment From DTSS
Just because everyone else does it, that doesn’t make it right. The NL is just about the only league in the world playing actual baseball. Nine players both field and hit. It’s simple.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: I’m just arguing practicality
1:24
Comment From Guest
Pujols is over 33, and he has been since the moment after he turned 33.
1:24
Comment From Gila Monster
Do you think MLB leaked Biogenesis and is using the media to crucify A-Rod to show even the best can’t escape Selig’s wrath and MLB is serious on PEDs
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Again, I only know what I can prove, but I wouldn’t be shocked. MLB has a long history of being short-sighted, with commissioners believing they’re some kind of avenging philosopher-kings.
1:25
Comment From Eminor3rd
ROS: Trout or Achilles?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Achilles would be really old.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Plus, those heel injuries can be a bitch. Bothered McGwire for years mid-career
1:25
Comment From DTSS
Poor, fragile pitchers. It’s so dangerous to hit. We must protect them. Actually, hitting is so dangerous, we should just get robots to do it. Why risk a great fielding shortstop? He could get hurt running the bases!
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Pitchers *are* fragile! Between innings of pitching, I’d encase them in styrofoam with tubes for food, air, and expelling waste.
1:26
Comment From Timothy
Higher end of season WAR: Heyward or Freeman?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Freeman
1:27
Comment From filihok
I’m using FanGraphs’. For example. A-Rod 2012. The components add up to 17 runs. He’s credited with 18.7 RAR
1:28
Dan Szymborski: I’d have to look at it.
1:28
Dan Szymborski: I don’t really utilize those components myself, so I haven’t come across the issue
1:28
Comment From BassmanUW
Available front end pitching for next season pretty much appears to be David Price or bust, right? Maybe Samardzija, if he rebounds in the last month and a half of the season?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Shark is moving and Price would be very expensive for the Indians
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Rays will trade their guys, but they’re not giving you any steals
1:29
Comment From Rubby of the Rose
Got a good fake word to describe Miguel Cabrera’s skills with the bat?
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Flabamajazz
1:29
Comment From Sadwick
If Francoeur made it as a pitcher he would the inverse Ankiel. A Liekna if you will, though that certainly sounds awful, so I wouldn’t.
1:29
Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
Don’t wear cargo shorts. They make you look like a 14 year old.
1:29
Dan Szymborski: I like having pockets
1:30
Dan Szymborski: I look too dissipated to be 14
1:30
Dan Szymborski: Though I did have trouble buying alcohol a few months ago at a grocery store
1:30
Comment From Bryz
If we’re going to talk about MLB: The Show, I’m more upset that the game has a player’s skills deteriorating if they’re at or above the age of 35. Mariano Rivera is still a great closer, stop dropping his overall rating below 80!
1:30
Comment From Rubby of the Rose
“The CPU GMs tend to look at the skills more than the stats” I think they look at age first. Donnie Murphy is the AAA 2B and is rated over 20 points better and is killing AAA. No reason they shouldn’t be using him. Stupid video games.
1:30
Comment From filihok
A-Rod. That black-bearded Hulk Hogan thing…
1:30
Comment From NO UNIVERSAL DHs
But what about double switches?!? WON”T SOMEBODY PLEASE THINK OF THE DOUBLE-SWITCHES?!?
1:31
Comment From Sadwick
You are now the Palpatine to A-Rod’s Luke. And that metaphor makes me uncomfortable.
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Plus, I’m 3 years younger than A-Rod?
1:31
Dan Szymborski: That should be an exclamation.
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Though if I impregnated a woman at age -3, that would make me the world’s biggest player, I assume
1:31
Comment From Justin
Can people please tone down the resentment towards the Dodgers? They’ve been mediocre-to-terrible for 20 years, up to and including the first half of this season. Can we fans please just enjoy the run without hearing how horrible our team is for having a high payroll?
1:32
Comment From filihok
If you can get a pizza at a game, you can get a pie
1:32
Dan Szymborski: I don’t generally like ballpark pizza
1:32
Comment From DTSS
A-Rod should embrace his inner Randy Orton and come to the plate wearing only a speedo.
1:32
Comment From Rubby of the Rose
“Salty seems to beat sweet in MLB concessions” because beer.
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Yeah. Beer is the breadmaker
1:32
Dan Szymborski: People eating apple pie probably want a glass of milk rather than beer.
1:32
Dan Szymborski: (though I always want to have beer)
1:33
Comment From filihok
You don’t think shoving tubes up pitchers’ butts every inning could lead to injury?
1:33
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a question of lubrication. MLB can pay for good medical professionals.
1:33
Comment From Sadwick
I see some problems with styrofoam encased pitchers. Claustrophobia comes to mind.
1:33
Dan Szymborski: Then only do it between games rather than innings, through use of medically induced comas
1:34
Dan Szymborski: I can’t be responsible for thinking ov everything!
1:34
Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
Nothing wrong with delicious fried pie pockets.
1:34
Comment From filihok
This woman at my work wants to hook up. Good idea? Bad idea? If we didn’t work together it’d be a total go no questions
1:34
Dan Szymborski: Depends on the Hotness-to-Job Importance Ratio
1:34
Comment From DTSS
Trouble buying alcohol? You forgot your fake id?
1:35
Dan Szymborski: When I’m clean shaven and really need a haircut, I look really young
1:35
Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t help that my voice isn’t that deep.
1:36
Dan Szymborski: My voice doesn’t sound like a 35-year-old, more like I’m in my late teens.
1:36
Dan Szymborski: The guys around here that I play TF2 with can vouch for that, or you can check out one of my radio appearances/ESPN AV things
1:36
Comment From filihok
Hotness 7. Job importance 3. So 7/3?
1:36
Dan Szymborski: At least a 2:1 ratio, I think, to venture
1:37
Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
Seriously, cargo shorts are the worst. Regular shorts are also pretty bad but I don’ t know where you live. Adults wear pants.
1:37
Dan Szymborski: I’m not really an adult
1:37
Dan Szymborski: I work at home, write about baseball, and play a lot of video games. If I’m wearing pants, I’m seriously annoyed.
1:37
Comment From DTSS
I’m thinking you and Dave could host a very entertaining talk show on ESPN.
1:38
Dan Szymborski: I have a lot of fun talking to Dave. It also helps that I’m the dissipated one and he’s very straight laced
1:38
Comment From LaLoosh
this is why I don’t check out these chats any more…
1:38
Dan Szymborski: A few years ago, we were at a writers thing at ESPN when they had NY offices
1:39
Dan Szymborski: The Daves went to bed at midnight, while I was out until 4, with a completely different group of people
1:40
Dan Szymborski: Slept for 3 hours, went up to get breakfast at barney greengrass, and was bright and fresh at the office at 930
1:40
Comment From Andrew Wood
I look bad in shorts, most of us do, don’t let that bother me!
1:40
Dan Szymborski: I actually have pretty muscular legs. They need to be strong to get my fat ass around.
1:41
Dan Szymborski: My gut is a bowl of jelly like Santa Claus, but my calves are harder than when you open up a pack of baseball cards from the 80s and test the bubble gum
1:41
Comment From DTSS
You’re the perfect foils for each other. Forget ESPN, how about a sabermetrics-themed buddy movie?
1:41
Comment From Graham
To the guy who hates shorts: If you live in the South, pants aren’t really an option for outdoor activities in July and August.
1:41
Comment From Bagwells Goatee
What you need to wear is a kilt
1:41
Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to shut off the chat for a week!
1:41
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming and I hope to see you all next week.
1:42
Comment From RSquared
So Selig is mad that A-Rod tried to buy the same evidence MLB tried (and eventually succeeded) in “buying”?
1:42
Dan Szymborski: Pretty much. Only MLB is allowed to intimidate and pay off witnesses.
1:42
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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


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PillsburyFlowboy
Member
PillsburyFlowboy
3 years 1 month ago

If you believe there’s something to all the games Flores played at 2B in AAA, what do you think the Mets do with Murphy next year?

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