Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/16/13

11:58
Dan Szymborski: And we are live
11:58
Dan Szymborski: Well, technically close to live, you see what I type after it’s already been typed
11:59
Dan Szymborski: So essentially, I’m speaking to you from the past.
11:59
Dan Szymborski: Just the very close past.
11:59
Comment From Tom
If Mo stopped by your house on his farewell tour, what would you give him as a present?
11:59
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I have anything he wants.

12:00
Dan Szymborski: How about some of those awesome wood-paneled 1987 Topps and a wicked windmill high-five?
12:00
Dan Szymborski: He *has* beaten the O’s quite a bit and I don’t want to give him too much of an award
12:00
Dan Szymborski: He certainly doesn’t need a sack of gold or anything.
12:00
Comment From Izzy
Can you use ZIPS to estimate how much players should get in Free Agency?
12:00
Dan Szymborski: Yes, and i frequently do!
12:00
Dan Szymborski: Had a Cano piece last month doing it.
12:00
Comment From Los
Why are the cardinals still favored over the Pirates?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: The teams are tied, but there are very good reasons to think that the Cardinals are the stronger team.
12:03
Dan Szymborski: The Cardinals also have a slightly easier schedule, with only 3 games left against winning teams and the Pirates with 6
12:03
Comment From ar
how do you think cigriani’s career plays out from here?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: I think to really hit his upside, he’s going to need to have a bigger arsenal
12:04
Dan Szymborski: His fastball is very tough to hit, but except for knucklers, guys don’t usually have a lot of sucess mostly throwing 1 pitch
12:04
Dan Szymborski: starters that is
12:05
Dan Szymborski: Mo’s made a career off his cutter, but it’s a very open question how much that would work throwing 6 innings a game instead of 1
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Cingrani’s got a loopyc urveball with potential, but I’m not sure if he changes speeds well enough to hit his upside yet
12:07
Comment From Guest
Qualifying offer by the Indians for Ubaldo?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Assuming it comes to that (the $8 million option is mutual? don’t have it in front of me) they should
12:07
Dan Szymborski: You can overpay a pitcher when it’s only a 1-year contract.
12:08
Dan Szymborski: The market is not overflowing with awesome pitchers. 1 year, $14 million or so would be an excellent result for the Indians
12:08
Comment From Izzy
How close are the ROS projections to the offseason projections?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: Not super close – in-season regression is smaller than season-to-season regression for one thing
12:09
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Hello Daniel
12:09
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
I may not always love you
12:09
Comment From David Appelman
Just so you know its totally okay if you take the next month off to play GTA V.
12:09
Comment From Mike
Who will the Indians be playing in the wild card game?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: I’ve got an odds piece going up in ESPN in the very near future.
12:09
Comment From Terry
Any reasons for hope that next season will be better for the Jays…?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: They still have a lot of the pieces, many just haven’t worked out that well this year. But they’re not hopeless.
12:10
Dan Szymborski: Jays do need to figure if they’re going to fold or double-down
12:10
Dan Szymborski: I’m still optimistic about some of those guys. That Melky was playing with a tumor causing leg weakness at least makes one more optimistic about his 2014
12:11
Dan Szymborski: Though generally speaking, if you have pain in your back to the extent that your legs aren’t working, you should probably not wait months to mention it
12:11
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Pick two for the next week: Kemp, Bourn, Aoki
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Probably Kemp and Bourn. The Dodgers don’t apepar to be rushing Kemp back and Aoki’s a better real-life than fantasy guy
12:12
Comment From Eli
Does Ron Washington survive this collapse two years in a row?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: If the Rangers collapse, I think he’s toast.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: GMs generally get 1 sacrificial manager. Sometimes 2, but they usually get 1.
12:13
Dan Szymborski: (Showalter doesn’t really count as he was a carryover for Daniels)
12:13
Comment From RF
Playoff odds had some massive changes in the last couple days. In particular, the Red Sox going from 30% WS% to 18% while on a torrid streak makes me think you guys changed something. Do you know if this was a change in methodology or something like a zips update?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: No idea. Those are FG estimated odds, not the official ZiPS ones.
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Anyone can use ZiPS, but I have my own set of Monte Carlo simulations
12:14
Dan Szymborski: With 2 weeks left, I’m also using the version that includes actual pitcher vs. pitcher matchup estimations
12:15
Comment From Zach
Expectations for Josmil Pinto next year and thereafter? Will he stick at catcher? Do you see he and Mauer splitting time at C and DH next year (with some PT at 1B for Mauer)?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: He’ll definitely get a lot of time at catcher. He was kind of under the radar as his defense has not received rave reviews in the minors
12:15
Dan Szymborski: But the Twins want to Mauer to play fewer games at catcher and they don’t have a lot of great options.
12:15
Dan Szymborski: To put it gently
12:16
Comment From Bobo
Gordon Beckham‘s fate after a dismal 2nd half crushed a solid 1st half?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Essentially his 5th fullish season, so at this point, the pedigree is kind of meaningless. He is what he is, a stopgap infielder, probably nothing more
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Now, he can be a good role player, kind of a Mark Lewis type, but his chances of really being a plus are quite low now
12:17
Comment From Reginald
do you think Ramos will be a top-10 catcher (at least by WAR) next season?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Yup. There were reasons to love him after 2011 and while he’s not the most scientific hitter, it appears he’s over his issues
12:18
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Who would you rather sign this offseason, Ubaldo or Kazmir?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Ubaldo. He’ll at least give you innings.
12:19
Dan Szymborski: The Indians have been treating Kazmir as gingerly as they can
12:19
Dan Szymborski: And Kazmir’s not the most efficient guy – he’s got a ton of 5/6 inning starts over 100 pitches
12:20
Comment From smp1354
Some push for Matt Carpenter as an NL MVP candidate lately. You buying?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: It’s not preposterous, but I think McCutchen’s clearly been better
12:21
Comment From John
T or F, 95 wins is enough to win the NL central outright?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Neither
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Looking at the most recent Monte Carlo run, the average NL Central winner had 95.02 wins.
12:22
Dan Szymborski: but that ain’t a guarantee
12:22
Comment From Greg
Why do high flyball lefties seem to often defy FIP?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Southpaw magic!
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Usually good control.
12:23
Dan Szymborski: But it’s hard to gauge, I’m not sure the difference is *that* big – junkbally righties sometimes beat FIP for awhile too
12:23
Comment From Guest
do you think cody asche can be a decent every day player or good role player moving forward?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s got a good shot at being a legitimate every day guy
12:24
Dan Szymborski: The big problem is that he has competition
12:27
Dan Szymborski: sorry, phone!
12:27
Dan Szymborski: And the Phils might do something dumb
12:28
Comment From Guest
Maybe you could put that to Mo when he pops round for his gift? Or take him to the sandlot and get him to throw 100 pitches at you?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: So that I miss 100 times? No thanks
12:30
Comment From Bkgeneral
Last winter the Blue Jays owned all the best moves. That didn’t work out well. Who will own this winter?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Well, that’s hard to say until the winter happens!
12:32
Comment From Danborski
Who would you take at 2B between Franklin and Ackley?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Probably Franklin at this point
12:32
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
How many more years will Zips project Trout as the best player in baseball?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Forever and forever
12:33
Comment From Todd
What are the odds that Greg Holland is a mystical wizard?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: OK, I’m off the phone, sorry guys
12:34
Dan Szymborski: How often does he say behold in a low pitched, powerful voice?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: And I guess it depends on what wizards he would be.
12:34
Dan Szymborski: For example, to be a Tolkien wizard, the White and the Gray/White guy are accounted for
12:34
Dan Szymborski: And I don’t think he’s Radagast the Brown. I guess he could be one of those blue wizards Pallandio and Alatar or something like that that went missing
12:35
Dan Szymborski: I gues she does wear blue
12:35
Comment From Zach
As an O’s fan, should I be optimistic about Schoop? Based purely on minor league numbers, I’m underwhelmed. Robert Andino 2.0?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Could very well be Andino, but he’s also young enough that a mediocre injury also ruined by back problems isn’t too much to hold against him
12:36
Dan Szymborski: But he’s a wait and see guy at this point.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: And even then, his minor league numbers don’t look great
12:36
Dan Szymborski: But he’s also in the sane number AAA league that had like 4.25 runs/game
12:37
Dan Szymborski: As opposed to the Crazytown league that scored nearly 5
12:37
Dan Szymborski: (PCL)
12:37
Comment From S
Have you tried FFXIV yet?
12:37
Dan Szymborski: Yup, big improvements over the initial one
12:37
Dan Szymborski: I was ambivalent at first, but so far have enjoyed it.
12:37
Dan Szymborski: (I’m on Brynhildr server)
12:37
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Will this year’s edition of the dictionary have a picture of Ubaldo Jimenez next to the definition of “contract year”?
12:37
Dan Szymborski: You know what I don’t get?
12:37
Dan Szymborski: WHERE ARE YOU GETTING THESE PICTURE DICTIONARIES?
12:37
Dan Szymborski: mine are all text.
12:38
Dan Szymborski: I once got kicked out of Barnes and NOble trying to find a dictionary with a picture of Ruben Amaro Jr. next to hapless.
12:39
Dan Szymborski: All I found was happenstance and other words around there
12:39
Comment From Guest
Ubaldo option: supposedly it became mutual once he was traded…. supposedly
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I thought it was mutual
12:39
Dan Szymborski: because there’s no erason for him to want it
12:39
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Any chance the Jays sign McCann and send exile JPA to the Yukon on an iceberg?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: I’m a big fan of sending players out to sea on ice floes, but they’ve had a stubborn unwillingness to do something about Aaron Cibia
12:40
Dan Szymborski: It would be a good fit, if the Jays go the double-down route
12:40
Comment From Jealous Burks
What do you think the Red Sox do with six starters already for next season (Clay, Lester, Peavy, Doubront, Lackey, Demspter)? Doubront has the most trade value, right?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Probably
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Though given injury issues, I expect they keep all of them and have Doubront in a swing spot
12:41
Comment From KJ
Keep a slightly expensive Vogelsong or a cheap Petit for next year?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Depends on what they do with Timmeh
12:42
Dan Szymborski: The team doesn’t seem all that interested in Surkamp
12:42
Comment From Gary
Are there any teams you expect to surprise some people by being big buyers in free agency or trades this offseason?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: I think KC might do a surprise signing
12:43
Dan Szymborski: They’re not likely to make the playoffs and the worst thing for Dayton Moore’s future employment would be for the 2013 Royals to be the high-water mark after years and years and years of rebuilding
12:44
Comment From Hugh
Is Moises Sierra a better than average everyday ballplayer?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say that, at least not yet. His minor league record is underwhelming
12:44
Comment From JPL
Which position player could, hypothetically, throw the hardest fastball?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: Brendan Ryan maybe?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: He’s launched some crazy hard throws from the hole at short after turning on a dime
12:45
Dan Szymborski: with some pitching mechanics, that could be even better
12:45
Comment From Greg
Do you run ZiPS projections for players in other professional leagues like the NPB or the Cuban leagues? How reliable are they?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: I do, but only when I need to.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: They are less reliable as we have a shorter record of data.
12:46
Dan Szymborski: The ZiPS NPB projections haven’t been less accurate as a group, but that’s probably just a little bit of luck – they *should* be less accurate
12:46
Comment From Gila Monster
Choo has essentially been Mike Trout vs. Righties. Poor guy can’t hit lefties
12:46
Dan Szymborski: And the defense part
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Choo’s CF defense is, uh, different than Trout’s
12:48
Dan Szymborski: And given that any lefty Choo will face in his MLB career is likely a teenager or at least a tween, it’s harder to do a sweep and exterminate all the lefties from the face of the earth
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I assume. The ideal age for lefty smothering is probably 5 or 6, when the child has displayed his handedness and is still easily smotherable or able to trick with poisoned candy.
12:49
Comment From Zach
Can I call you Zimm or Zimmer? I want to be reminded of the epic Pedro-Don Zimmer throwdown as often as possible.
12:49
Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t quite work since the next syllable is Bor, which really makes a mess
12:49
Comment From saskatunes
I made it to the championship, Mauer’s hurt and been rolling w Navarro. I think I might prefer to punt C given limited PAs (no full time catchers on the wire) to allow myself a few pitch streams as needed… what say ye?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: It relaly depends on your matchup, as annoying an answer as that may be
12:49
Comment From Gila Monster
If Bonds didn’t have a 120 IBBs in 2004 and we replaced them with AB, what would his final lines?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: More.
12:50
Dan Szymborski: But to be honest, a lot of those intentional walks would end be intentional unintentional walks
12:51
Dan Szymborski: After all, those are the scenarios they least wanted to give Bonds something to hit, so they’d probably be in the Danger Zone lower % than other ABs
12:51
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Obviously its going to vary according to pre-season expectations, but what do you think the general attitude is towards the one game playoff in front offices? Would they be more likely to consider making it and losing a success or do they consider it the same as losing a tiebreaker playoff.
12:51
Dan Szymborski: I actually think they’re still sorting out their feelings.
12:51
Dan Szymborski: It is generally considered a success, even if it’s a 1-game and out situation
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Depends on the team. The Rangers may not have as exciting a view of a 1-game playoff as last year, it was essentially a disaster that they got into that situation
12:53
Dan Szymborski: While the Cards, who would have finished 6 games out of the wild card last year and instead got an opportunity to get within a game of making the World Series, may initially feel a lot better
12:53
Comment From Zach
Can we discount every good move Showalter has done with the O’s now that he continues to play Mike Morse in the outfield?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know what the hell Mike Morse is doing in the outfield
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Mike Morse in the OF looks like a cat that missed a jump and went crashing to the floor – wide-eyed, mildly confused, and wondering just how the hell that happened
12:54
Comment From Derek
do managers cost their teams runs or increase their runs during an entire season?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Well, they can do either.
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Though in-game tactics tend to be overrrated.
12:54
Dan Szymborski: The big, macro decisions are the ones that have the most effect
12:54
Comment From Bob
It seems like rookie performances getting so good that it’s a bit sad that Gerrit Cole‘s performance in the majors is considered disappointing.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, Trout, Harvey, etc. have resulted in a new rookie category of ho-hum awesomeness
12:57
Comment From Brad Wesley
What’s your favorite old-timey insult? Personally i loke to go way back and call people papists. Never see it coming.
12:57
Dan Szymborski: dandiprat
12:58
Dan Szymborski: moldwarp, blackguard
12:58
Dan Szymborski: rapscallion
12:58
Dan Szymborski: coxcomb
12:59
Comment From Derek
Bartolo seems to be doing alright with one pitch!
12:59
Comment From RF
I forget, how does ZiPs projects players with little-no major league playing time? Do you use minor league numbers or MLEs at all?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Yup. Minor league translations
12:59
Dan Szymborski: My database goes super far back
12:59
Comment From Mike
What would an extension for Starling Marte look like at this point?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: That’s a question to ask me on Twitter! Running ZiPS in-chat really slows things down
1:00
Dan Szymborski: And my phone call already slowed it down a bit
1:00
Dan Szymborski: (So we’re holding off 10 minutes until the lightning round)
1:00
Comment From Kazmir
I’ve been treated so gingerly, you could serve me with a plate of sushi
1:00
Dan Szymborski:

1:00
Comment From Bart
Will Todd Frazier improve, in your opinion, next season after this season’s abysmal year or have we seen his peak?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: His ZiPS projected OPS+ before the season was 99 and he’s at 96
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Frazier was a sub-.800 OPS guy at AAA, after all.
1:01
Comment From Guest
THINK OF THE CHILDREN!!!
1:01
Dan Szymborski: I actually upset a little kid at the store over the weekend.
1:02
Dan Szymborski: This kid, 5 or 6 or 7, was running up and down the aisles shouting with no apparently parental supervision
1:02
Dan Szymborski: I was in his way in the cereal aisle and he looked at me and said “You’re stupid!”
1:03
Dan Szymborski: So I told him “Well, at least my parents are getting a divorce because I won’t shut up at the grocery store”
1:03
Dan Szymborski: aren’t getting a divorce
1:03
Dan Szymborski: he was quieter after that
1:03
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Cutch will win because he’s the best player on the team withe the most interesting narrative.
1:03
Comment From larryA
Adam Dunns avg is still horrible, but hes been at about .270 for the past 3 months after being in the low 100s to start the season. Im guess Zips will predict another .200 avg for next year, but can we assume a changed approach and predict higher?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go that far
1:04
Dan Szymborski: The difference in those BAs is essentially all BABIP
1:05
Comment From Greg
Do teams run analytics on umpires using pitch f/x data?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: I don’t personally know of a team doing it, though that doesn’t mean they aren’t
1:06
Dan Szymborski: I probably could find out, but my relationship with front offices is more social-casual than directly connected with my job
1:06
Dan Szymborski: I’m not really a reporter, after all
1:06
Comment From Gene
Aside from Fernandez, who among the young SP’s with innings limits in 2013 will be the best in 2014?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Well, Wheeler’s got a good shot
1:07
Comment From Eminor3rd
Would you rather have the best donut in the world or the best cookie in the world? Does your answer change if it’s the most average donut and the most average cookie?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: donut
1:07
Dan Szymborski: I like donuts better than cookies
1:07
Dan Szymborski: But I rarely eat donuts or cookies. I’m round enough eating *well* that I very rarely eat sweets or junk food
1:08
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t even had a dorito in like a year!
1:08
Comment From Guest
hello
1:08
Dan Szymborski: what’s up?
1:08
Comment From Dave
Did you see Travis Sawchik’s article about the Pirates aggressive shifts? Thoughts?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I have not, over in the trib blog?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: My day was waking up at 8, seeing the internet was down, cursing and going back to sleep until 10, writing a playoff odds piece, and coming here.
1:10
Dan Szymborski: And of course, it wasn’t a long drive to come here. I went down some stairs into my office.
1:10
Comment From Joey
Super important question. I’m setting my lineup for the week. Does Smoak return soon?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: I thought he was supposed to be in today’s lineup
1:10
Comment From Shark Mapiro
If the Indians do give Ubaldo a QO, do you think he accepts? Especially considering how free agency went for a more established, albeit older, Kyle Loshe?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: I think he turns it down. Lohse still got a better contract than 1/13
1:11
Comment From Terry
Biggest issue the Jays need to address this offseason is A) Starting Pitching B)2nd Base C) Defense
1:11
Dan Szymborski: catcher is very important
1:11
Dan Szymborski: They’ll definitely need some bouncebacks from the returning starters
1:11
Comment From Greg
What’s your outlook like for Starlin Castro next season? Rebound year?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: I’m optimistic – he’s very talented after all
1:11
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
If you are the Rockies do you try to move Tulo or CarGo in the offseason?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: I would at least explore the possibility
1:11
Dan Szymborski: There should never be any such thing as an untouchable player.
1:12
Dan Szymborski: You always at least listen
1:12
Comment From Marcus A.
Do you trust ZiPS nearly unconditionally before the year? Or do you gauge the projections and see if anything strikes you as “off” about them?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: My opinion takes ZiPS into consideration, but it is separate from ZiPS
1:12
Dan Szymborski: No ZiPS projection will *ever* have my finger on the scale
1:13
Dan Szymborski: And I’ve never changed my mind about reporting a projection based on the result
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Only exception is if I’m doing something in which I need some theoretical constraint
1:14
Dan Szymborski: For instance, I have some reported playoff odds depending on what KC does against Cleveland (0, 1, 2, 3 wins)
1:14
Comment From dbet
My name is Dan, I like video games, indie rock,and statistics. The only difference is that I’m studying actuarial science instead of saber. We should hang out!
1:14
Dan Szymborski: Do you like heavy drinking?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: And do you play an instrument? My friend base is mostly keyboard and drums.
1:15
Dan Szymborski: If The Cheeseburger Bourgeoisie are ever to get assembled, I need a guitarist!
1:15
Comment From Bart
Do you think the Yanks give Robertson the first crack at the closer role in 2014 or do they try to go after someone in the offseason?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: He’s definitely going the inside track.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: The Yankees priority will be (and should be) Cano
1:16
Dan Szymborski: and they still want to stay under 189 if they can
1:16
Comment From Guest
Is Dave Dombrowski the most underrated GM in baseball?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s pretty highly rated. At the very least, I believe he’s rated.
1:16
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
I am typing this comment so as to appear to be taking notes
1:17
Dan Szymborski: What subject? Maybe we can do some lesson-relevant Qs so you feel less guilty about blowing off the clss.
1:17
Comment From Hoozer
I bet all of my office buddies that Maybin would go .260 / 15HR / 50 SB. I’m buying lunch next week … but should I make that bet again for next season?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: What do you get if you win?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: If it’s one lunch for you, but 6 lunches for everyone else, that’s a tough bet
1:18
Dan Szymborski: And it’s a rough bet, I dont’ think he’s getting near 50 SB and it’s still a tough park
1:18
Comment From Dave
Do you expect that the Pirates defense will take a nose dive after this season for no other reason than bad luck? (that + Clint Barmes leaving)
1:18
Dan Szymborski: There will be some regression, no doubt.
1:19
Comment From Greg
Is there a particular type of player over which you and ZiPS often disagree?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: I tend to like guys with hard + moving stuff with poor results more than ZiPS does.
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Seomtimes that works out (I called Ivan Nova the player most likely to crush ZiPS)
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Sometimes it doesn’t (ZiPS has liked Jake Arrieta a lot less than me and usually beats me)
1:19
Comment From kevinthecomic
Since you took 3 minutes to answer the phone, will you be adding 3 minutes to the end of this chat, like they do in soccer?
1:20
Dan Szymborski: But like soccer guys, it’s a secret stopwatch in my mind
1:21
Comment From David
If Greg Holland were a mystical wizard, he would have had the power to force himself into the 8th inning yesterday, rather than allowing Ned Yost to place a dagger between his own team’s metaphorical ribs!
1:21
Dan Szymborski: You need a really magical environment to overcome Ned Yost’s incompetence
1:21
Comment From Trevor
Projected starting rotation for the 2014 San Francisco Giants?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Well, Cain/Bumgarner in obviously, pretyt open after that
1:22
Dan Szymborski: I think they try to get Lincecum to come back for 1/10 or something
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Vogelsong really is worth the option
1:22
Dan Szymborski: (He does have an option, right? For like 6?)
1:23
Dan Szymborski: petit obviouslyg ets a shot
1:24
Dan Szymborski: The weird thing on Zito is that it’s not an absolute slam-dunk to not pick up the option.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: If I’m recalling my numbers right, it’s 7 milino buyout, 18 million option, so given that 7 million is gone, it’s essentially a question fo whether he can be worth 1 year, $11 million.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he is, but there’s at least an argument
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Not a good one, but at least above the level of crazy insane
1:25
Comment From Guest
Thoughts on MLB’s antitrust exemption?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think any business or group should have exemptions that others do not have.
1:25
Comment From Tom
You need to play more EUIV, greatest game of the decade.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: I do. After the seaosn, i will definitely have more time
1:25
Dan Szymborski: There are lots of games out right now that are competing for my love.
1:26
Comment From tehzachatak
Syzzle!!!
1:26
Dan Szymborski: D.J. Sizzle’s bringing you all our favorite 80s/90s hip-hop tracks. Are you down with O.B.P.?
1:26
Comment From juan pierres mustache

picture dictionaries! Shockingly, U actually IS for Ubaldo Jimenez in this one. None of the children I've showed it to get that one at all.

1:27
Comment From Eminor3rd
Aaron Cibia sounds like a restaurant that prides itself on being “sustainable”
1:28
Dan Szymborski: “I’m executive chef Aaron Cibia and I’m bringing you classical Spanish cuisine with modern flair, all from locally-sourced meat and produce. And every Wednesday is paella night.”
1:28
Comment From zack
Whose performance has been more surprising: Lackey or Liriano?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Lackey
1:28
Comment From John Stamos
Why did you have to tell me about Crusader Kings 2? It’s like I don’t have a life anymore.
1:28
Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry. 13th century dynastic manipulation is much fun
1:28
Comment From zack
Texas a good fit for Beltran next year?
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Possibly. I thought Beltran would be underpaid last contract (and he was), but I think he may be overpaid in the next one
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Though the Rangers are arguably in a position where an overpay makes sense
1:29
Comment From zack
WHo do you like longterm: Wacha or Miller?
1:29
Dan Szymborski: That’s one of those beer vs. taco questions.
1:29
Comment From Alex
Is Segura keeper worthy? Have to pick three between: Segura, Hosmer, Puig, Upton, Pujols . Other keepers are: Kershaw and Carlos Gomez.
1:29
Dan Szymborski: I think so, but I’d like to trade him, depending on what your league’s rules are
1:29
Comment From zack
How worried should Mike Illitch’s kids be about their inheritcance going to Scherzer and Cabrera?
1:30
Dan Szymborski: Ilitch is definitely whittling down their inheritance, but all his kids are doing well at this point, so it shouldn’t be too upsetting.
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Ilitch’s actuarial position really puts him in a position where the Tigers are going to continue to be very aggressive
1:31
Comment From Daniel Bryan
How concerned should I be about Miguel Cabrera as a fantasy owner in two leagues? It’s playoff time and I’m freaking out!
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Don’t be.
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Or perhaps No! No! No!
1:31
Comment From Guest
Rumors have the Mets targeting Choo. Can you speculate Choo vs Ellsbury potential contracts. And future values.
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Bah, this is a twitter q!
1:32
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Wasn’t Bryce Harper clocked in the high 90s when he was in high school?
1:32
Comment From Paul Swydan
I believe that Tulo got it into the mid-90s as a pitcher in high school.
1:32
Comment From zack
Regarding Strasburg, would it be fair to say we saw his best when he was a roookie when posted a 52 FIP-, which a Randy Johnson in his prime kind of silly? He’s still excellent, but will always be a disappoint in the eyes of many
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Well, yeah. He’s still going to have a terrific career if he stays healthy
1:33
Dan Szymborski: OK, let’s call the lightning round. This is the best time for random, odd questions.
1:33
Comment From RickyLedeeOrNight
I keep hearing all of this chatter about yan Gomes as a dark horse for AL ROY, but didn’t be exceed the active roster time period last year with TOR, and would not qualify then?
1:34
Dan Szymborski: I think he did, actually.
1:35
Dan Szymborski: I’m trying to roughly count his pre-September playing time.
1:35
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s under 45 games on active roster
1:36
Dan Szymborski: days that is
1:37
Dan Szymborski: At a minimum, not being on active roster day before start of playing time stints or day after, I count 10 for May, 13 for June, 11 for July, 18 for August. That’s 52.
1:37
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Even the lefties that aren’t good at pitching? Like Paul McCartney or Ricky Romero?
1:37
Dan Szymborski: I think McCartney could keep Choo to a .650 OPS or so
1:37
Comment From Gabe
People seem to say that the NPB falls between AAA and MLB, but given how many really subpar MLBers make it big over there, can’t we say it’s somewhat closer to AA? (Yu Darvish and Hideki Matsui notwithstanding, I guess.)
1:38
Dan Szymborski: Not really, it’s between AAA and MLB from a pure value, average standpoint
1:39
Dan Szymborski: But the stats don’t take proportional hits.
1:39
Dan Szymborski: For example, for a HR-heavy guy in Japan, NPB is like AA relative to MLB from a translation standpoint
1:39
Dan Szymborski: But for singles, they’re about equivalent
1:40
Dan Szymborski: The move from US–>NPB is most advantageous for the pure power guys
1:40
Comment From Sadwick
I can’t see Choo genetically engineering a supervirus and releasing it to kill all left handed individuals, I don’t think he could grow a big enough mustache to twirl when he released the virus. Plus, he would look silly in the monocle. Wait what was this chat about?
1:40
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
If Youk was the Greek God of walks, what did that make BARRY BONDS.
1:40
Dan Szymborski: The Overgod.
1:41
Comment From SteveV
Do you trust that Smoak won’t regress again next year?
1:41
Dan Szymborski: He’ll regress somewhat, but he did take a big step forward
1:41
Comment From Greg
Have you ever checked to see if players in a contract year outperform ZiPS on average?
1:41
Dan Szymborski: Yes and have not found it to be the case.
1:41
Comment From Andrew
Follow up on your manager comment, what do you define as big macro decisions, lineup construction…?
1:42
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, like deciding if you want to let Brandon Belt get a full opportunity or bench him for Aubrey Huff every time he goes 0-for-4
1:42
Comment From zack
Rank the three NL central contending managers: Hurdle, Dusty, Matheny?
1:42
Dan Szymborski: H, M, D
1:42
Comment From zack
Who wins more games next season: Mariners or Angels?
1:42
Dan Szymborski: Angels
1:42
Comment From zack
Delmon hit fifth yesterday (WTF) and had two walks. Has he ever had two walks in a single game before?
1:43
Dan Szymborski: He did it twice more this year!
1:43
Comment From Guest
On a scale of 1-10, how awesome is it that Old Hoss Radbourne’s 1887 Old Judge baseball card is the first recorded instance of a human being flipping off a camera?
1:43
Dan Szymborski: I’m more impressed that he’s still alive and tweeting
1:43
Comment From jdrocks
Read a lot on the Dodger payroll at the start of the year. Why isn’t there being anything written on the Yankees having the highest payroll in the HISTORY OF SPORT? Do they get a free pass with the media due to all the injuries (they shouldn’t – no one forced them to sign Team Geriatric).
1:44
Dan Szymborski: Yankees made more, but the Dodgers were more newsworthy because the Yankees payouts were mostly legacy
1:44
Dan Szymborski: And the Yankees have been making a lot of noise about trying to get under luxury threshold. The Dodgers have nto
1:45
Dan Szymborski: After this year, the Dodgers have $642 million in long-term contract guarantees
1:45
Dan Szymborski: The Yankees have $246 million
1:46
Comment From Dave
Over a full season, Gerrit Cole would have put up a 3-4 win season as a rookie. That’s fantastic, better than Verlander and what Harvey did his rookie year.
1:46
Dan Szymborski: We’re spoiled now
1:46
Comment From Guest
How amenable would you be to a rival, third major league challenging MLB’s supremacy? It’s crazy that it’s been almost 100 years since anyone tried to established a new major league, given ABA-NBA and AFL-NFL experiences
1:46
Dan Szymborski: It would be fun, but it’s an uphill climb
1:46
Dan Szymborski: You need mega-bucks to compete.
1:46
Dan Szymborski: MLB would have to stumble considerably for it to happen
1:46
Comment From SteveV
Why do you take so many questions posted from Sgt. Pepper…on who “Hello”…really!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1:46
Dan Szymborski: It’s coincidental.
1:46
Comment From Ex
Do you watch Anime?
1:46
Dan Szymborski: I don’t, but have nothing against it
1:47
Dan Szymborski: Except the male haircuts that defy gravity
1:47
Comment From Buehrles Burly-Men
Give me a reason to watch the White Sox at the ballpark next week.
1:47
Dan Szymborski: It’s baseball.
1:47
Dan Szymborski: Duh
1:47
Comment From Guest
How good do you think Kevin Gausman can be next year?
1:47
Dan Szymborski: I’m still optimistic. I think he’ll be a solid starter in the majors next year
1:47
Comment From Bkgeneral
Re: Trout rookie season. Trout’s 2011 was clearly sub-awesome. Reason #1 million ROY is a terrible award.
1:47
Dan Szymborski: You gotta set a line somewhere
1:47
Comment From Sadwick
Don’t worry, even if it’s been a year since you last had a dorito all the others you ate before that are still with you.
1:48
Dan Szymborski: I’m sure at least a percentage of the doritos entered the sewage system
1:48
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think human bodies can convert 100% of a dorito into stored energy
1:48
Comment From Gila Monster
Is team chemistry the most overated thing? I hated most people on my baseball team. But I liked baseball and liked being good. I tried my best every PA or fielding play for myself. I wasn’t paid and didn’t have fans. Yet a professional athletr making millions of dollars performs poorly because he doesn’t “like” his teammates? Baseball is primarily an individual sport anyways. I’m Red Sox fan and I’m tired of it.
1:48
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s always a post hoc explanation.
1:49
Comment From Not Sgt. Pepper
Do you have a quota on the amount of St.Pepper questions you answer in a chat?
1:49
Dan Szymborski: I don’t even look at the names. Sometimes, asking a lot of questiosn pays off.
1:49
Comment From jose oquendo
2013 projections for Martin Van Buren?
1:49
Dan Szymborski: Assuming he came back from the dead, he would need a haircut
1:50
Dan Szymborski: Ain’t nobody getting elected into office with that hair
1:50
Comment From Gila Monster
Are defensive ratings really fluky? It seems hard to believe Ryan Zimmerman is the worst defensive 3B in baseball. Other example is Beltre averaging 10.7 Fld over the past 2 years, now he is at 1.7…
1:50
Dan Szymborski: Very. A year of defensive stats is about the same predictive value as 2 months of offensive stats
1:50
Comment From Hogwagon
How does Zips project someone like Gerrit Cole’s K/9 for next season, where it’s fairly clear form watching him that he has the talent to get more strikeouts and was told by the team to take an approach that suppressed his strikeout totals?
1:50
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS knows nothing of these things.
1:50
Comment From Daniel W
My name is Dan, I actually work for PlayStation, I like indie rock, and statistics. I also like heavy drinking and do vocals. The only difference is that I do data/reporting instead of sabermetrics. (Also, I live in California.) We should hang out!
1:51
Dan Szymborski: But it’s a long flight!
1:51
Comment From Dave
Here’s the link to travis’ article: http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/4689239-74/pirates-defensive-season#axzz2f4pwIpxz
1:51
Comment From twinmh
If Billy Butler is Country Breakfast, then Japhet Amador is ???
1:52
Dan Szymborski: Old Country Buffet
1:52
Comment From Spencer
My name isn’t Dan, my gaming story starts and ends at MLB The Show, I’ve always been pretty terrible at math, but I do play guitar pretty well, and I’m always down for heavy drinking. We should be friends
1:52
Dan Szymborski: Good, I need some non-Dans
1:52
Comment From Henry
is farrell a lock for moty? is there someone else you’d prefer to see get the nod?
1:52
Dan Szymborski: I think he will get the nod. He’s got the storyline of the Red Sox bouncing back after a disaster season and a season that became a disaster a t the end
1:53
Dan Szymborski: I’d actually give it to Girardi. He’s had *zero* flexibility at keeping the Yankees togetehr
1:53
Dan Szymborski: They’re in playoff contention with one of the worst offenses in team history
1:53
Dan Szymborski: And Sabathia sucking
1:55
Comment From Realistic Jaysfan
The Blue Jays owned all the best moves…..bwahahahaha. The Dickey trade was far from best…..it was bad.
1:55
Comment From Vince Vaughn
“You’re adopted! You’re parents don’t even love you!”
1:56
Comment From Zach
Re: hardest throwing position player. Don’t forget Chris Davis pumping 92-mph fastballs (for strikes!) against the Sox last year. The man is Ruthian.
1:56
Comment From Zach
What is the best name in professional sports? In MLB?
1:56
Dan Szymborski: Gonzalez German German.
1:57
Dan Szymborski: err Gonzalez German Germen
1:57
Comment From RSquared
Is the NYY front office conspiring to keep the team from the playoffs to deny A-Rod the good PR from leading the playoff run? “Jeter, limp; Gardner, overswing and hurt your oblique!!
1:57
Dan Szymborski: Heh.
1:57
Dan Szymborski: Probably not. As long as they have the distraction and a payroll sink, it’s not a bad idea to at least ride it while they can
1:57
Comment From larryA
why dont other teams call up no-hit speedsters in September?
1:58
Dan Szymborski: Conservatism. There’s no reason to *not* call up guys unless you’re shutting them down for injury/IP limit
1:58
Dan Szymborski: More options are better than fewer
1:58
Comment From JT
Can ZIPS predict how many more live versions of Underworld’s “Born Slippy” I’m going to watch on YT this PM?
1:58
Dan Szymborski: I would need more information to model your tendencies
1:58
Comment From SteveV
If you could only look at one defensive metric…which one would it be?
1:58
Dan Szymborski: *If* only one, it would be TZ, just so I can hav he historical archive
1:59
Dan Szymborski: Probably UZR if that’s not a consideration – longer track record
1:59
Comment From Slew (Seattle)
Can you give us a sneak preview of your AL wild card predictions? Or a link to the article you referenced?
1:59
Dan Szymborski: Piece apepars to be up now.
2:00
Dan Szymborski: http://es.pn/1dj7MdX
2:00
Dan Szymborski: Hasn’t hit the carousel yet, so the link is best way
2:00
Comment From Mitch
How can teams like the Rays and Indians attract fans?
2:01
Dan Szymborski: Supermodel nudity
2:01
Dan Szymborski: The Rays actually have a complaint, unlike many small market teams past. They actually *have* put together a good product
2:01
Comment From Chris
Which Dan Haren is for real?
2:01
Dan Szymborski: I still think he’ll mea mid-rotation guy
2:01
Comment From bob
Why hasn’t anyone asked why Kate is going as far away as possible on the bus? She could be in trouble. You people are selfish.
2:01
Dan Szymborski: She could also be guilty of murder
2:02
Dan Szymborski: And has taken a very inefficient means of fleeing the jurisdiction
2:02
Comment From JT
As an American, do you recognize any of the following Canadian entertainers? Wayne and Schuster? Trailer Park Boys? Stompin’ Tom Connors?
2:02
Dan Szymborski: I know none of these things.
2:03
Dan Szymborski: Should I?
2:03
Dan Szymborski: They have trailer parks in Canada?
2:03
Comment From Chicago Mark
Maybe we should all announce ourselves as Sgt. Pepper.
2:03
Comment From Daniel Bryan
You looked at my name. YES! YES! YES!
2:03
Comment From Zach
Have you ever heard of the Mantis Shrimp? You need to google it immediately. It’s probably the coolest think on earth. I’ll help get you started: http://theoatmeal.com/comics/mantis_shrimp
2:03
Dan Szymborski: I’m kind of afraid
2:04
Dan Szymborski: I’ve been tricked into google search for blue waffle and into lemon party
2:04
Comment From Spit Ball
I see Fangraphs 2013 projected standings has the Rays with 89 wins and the Rangers and Indians projected for 88 wins. Lucky for the AL they have the Wednesday wild card Play In game. The more bunched up that wild card spot the cooler things get. If nothing else the last weekend in the AL should be great!
2:05
Dan Szymborski: My monte carlo simulations break ties, thanksfully
2:05
Comment From Chicago Mark…aka Sgt. Pepper wanabe…NOT
No question. Just a new name
2:05
Comment From Mitch
Is your best friend Mark Rzepczynski? Do you guys discuss your similar heritages when out for pierogis?
2:05
Dan Szymborski: *I’m* the hard-to-spell guy. I don’t want to be in a room in which I only have the second-hardest last name
2:06
Dan Szymborski: TAKE A BATH WITH A TOAST, JASON WOJCIECHOWSKI!!!!!!!!!!!11111111oneoneone
2:06
Dan Szymborski: toaster
2:06
Comment From Jesse
Any chance the Bucs resign Marlon Byrd this offseason to be a placeholder until Polanco is ready? What would it take?
2:06
Dan Szymborski: I think Byrd’s short-term
2:06
Comment From Redacted
My name is , I work for doing . I play video games and enjoy moderate drinking. Does that work?
2:06
Dan Szymborski: Doing like the verb or rhyming with Boing?
2:06
Comment From Zach
Trust me on the Mantis Shrimp. It will totally blow your mind. There’s even a baseball reference on that page. It’s totally SFW.
2:06
Comment From JT
OMG! You totally should know the Trailer Park Boys!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2:06
Comment From JT
Do you The Tragically Hip, Carole Baker, This Hour Has 22 Minutes, Blue Rodeo?
2:07
Dan Szymborski: Now I know the Tragically Hip
2:07
Dan Szymborski: Do I get some kind of credit for having the discography for Zumpano, Destroyer, and Immaculate Machien?
2:08
Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard of This Hour Has 22 Minutes but haven’t seen it
2:09
Dan Szymborski: I have heard of Blue Rodeo but nothing else, no idea who Carole Baker is
2:09
Comment From Zach
I know not of the blue waffle and lemon party.
2:09
Dan Szymborski: Try to keep it that way
2:09
Comment From John
If you’ve ever been to a hockey game you know Stompin Tom Conners’ “Good’ol hockey game” song
2:09
Comment From Redcated
Apparently coveritlive isn’t a big fan of angle brackets. It throws them out from responses
2:09
Comment From JT
Absolutely.
2:10
Dan Szymborski: OK, on that note, time for me to shuffle off for another week.
2:10
Dan Szymborski: See you all next week, unless I am dead!
2:10
Dan Szymborski: And even in the event that I am dead, I will do my best to tweet my final moments, assuming they are possible.
2:11
Dan Szymborski: If I don’t show up for chat next week, tweet me some Jeff Francoeur jokes. If you still hear nothing for me, I have in fact expired.
2:11
Comment From Zach
Killed by the Mantis Shrimp!!!



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Paul Swydan is the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for the Boston Globe. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan.


2 Responses to “Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/16/13”

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  1. George says:

    Oh my gosh! The mantis shrimp is awesome!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Baltar says:

    JT, the only Canadian entertainer I recognize is Leonard Cohen. No others are necessary.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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