Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/1/16

Dave Cameron: Welcome to June. This is the month where we’ll probably start separating out some of the teams that wanted to contend but can’t, and after the draft next week, we’ll start to see some real traction pick up in trade talk.

Dave Cameron: Or we can just talk about Mookie Betts the whole time too. That works as well.

David: Who would you rather sign as a FA, Machado or Harper?

Dave Cameron: Well, depends entirely on cost, but Harper is the safer choice. Machado is amazing, but he does also have two knee surgeries under his belt already.

Jake: Why do you think the Mariners are calling up Paxton this early in the season

Dave Cameron: Either Felix is hurt (certainly possible) or they’re shuffling the rotation to have him pitch this weekend against Texas.

Dave P: Dave – I am confused on how defensive ratings are calculated for first basemen. Almost all 1b (with qualified pa) have a negative defensive number. Shouldn’t there be a more typical distribution between positive and negative ratings?

Dave Cameron: The DEF number includes the position adjustment, so it’s defensive value relative to all defenders, and first baseman are playing that position because they can’t play other spots on the field. If you just want a fielding rating that is average for that position, look at UZR or DRS.

Guy: Lucroy and Braun traded as package. Would you be surprised?

Dave Cameron: Not at all. Braun still has negative trade value, so the easiest way to move his contract without making it obvious that it’s a salary dump is to attach him to something with real value, like Lucroy.

Phillip: What should the Dodgers do if Alex Wood is seriously hurt?

Dave Cameron: Probably would be time to start kicking the tires on trades. Wouldn’t need a frontline guy, but getting a solid innings eater to bridge the gap until McCarthy or Ryu return would be worth exploring.

Erik: What is Mike Trout doing to provide the second-most Baserunning value with only 6 SBs? Is he just that much better at choosing when to take an extra base than everyone else? What an oddly specific skill to have, but of course Trout would be the one to have it.

Dave Cameron: Well, it’s a combination of speed (which he’s always had) and just being an excellent judge of when to go first to third or second to home. But there’s definitely a correlation between those baserunning abilities and raw footspeed.

Erik: Will contracts such as Ryan Howard’s, or the end of Pujols’ or Fielder’s, discourage GMs from signing players of that profile to such long deals in the future? Will it always be in teams’ interests to take that kind of a future hit, or is there a possibility for teams to get smarter here?

Dave Cameron: We’re probably done with 10 year deals for 30+ 1Bs for a while.

Dave Cameron: The problem isn’t necessarily giving out a big money contract; it’s that those teams picked the wrong guys to give it to.

The Hamburglar: It’s really hard seeing any AL contending team being better than the Red Sox, both right now and come October. Who has the best case for beating them?

Dave Cameron: Toronto, if they can get their offense going and fix their bullpen, could be a tough opponent.

Brahman: Do you see the Astros bringing up Bregman to play 3rd or LF sooner than later this season?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’d bet he’s their third baseman within a month.

Hugh Glass: I have heard Andrew Miller mentioned as a possible name that the Giants might pursue, but what prospect capital do they have that would net them someone like that? I feel like Miller has a lot of name value and they’d be better served targeting someone like Will Smith if the objective is to get another LHP in the bullpen

Dave Cameron: If the Yankees make Miller available, there will be a bidding war, no question. Smith won’t be cheap if he proves he’s healthy either, though.

Murdoc: Pulling Kershaw in the eighth to bring in another lefty, good or bad idea?

Dave Cameron: I’m fine with it. Kershaw was running out of gas.

Maud: Project a Lucroy trade please.

Dave Cameron: Friends in the game still think he goes to Texas. Not that hard to see a deal built around Profar and some other stuff.

Erik: Would a shrunken strike zone accelerate the shift in balance of power from control pitchers to power pitchers? Control pitchers wouldn’t be able to paint the same corners any more, though on the other hand, power pitchers with shaky control may have an even tougher time avoiding walks.

Dave Cameron: Raising the bottom of the zone isn’t the same thing as shrinking it equally; the inside and outside corners would be unchanged. Guys like Carlos Silva had nice careers even before the bottom of the zone got huge.

Daniel: Who, in your opinion, is having the quietest great season thus far?

Dave Cameron: Ian Kinsler

Sirras: What should I make for dinner?

Dave Cameron: Has anyone ever made tacos and then regretted it?

Outta my way, Gyorkass: What team appears to you to have the bleakest overall future outlook, when taking current talent level and farm system strength into account? How about the best?

Dave Cameron: I just don’t see a reasonable path forward for the Padres to avoid being miserable for the foreseeable future. And I’d imagine every team in baseball would take the Cubs situation if they could.

Bork: Bethancourt’s game got me thinking. Do you think there will ever be a niche position player/pitcher utility role?

Dave Cameron: Yes. As the game moves more and more towards frequent pitching changes, the value of having a guy who can serve as a defensive replacement or innings-eating reliever will only increase.

Sirras: Is Mookie Betts excelling because of or in spite of the reasons you expected?

Dave Cameron: Well we didn’t expect him to be a low-BB/high-ISO guy, but part of that is just how pitchers are pitching him. Eventually, I think they’ll start pitching around him more, and the walks will go up, with the power probably coming down a bit.

Mark: What’s your view on Zobrist RoS? Does he crash at some point, or could we be looking at a career-best (if not totally absurd) season from him?

Dave Cameron: No reason to expect a very good player to crash. He won’t keep this up, but he’s an excellent player.

Wily Mo Money Mo Problems: Which teams, if any, do you think might benefit from the addition of Guerrero?

Dave Cameron: Alex Guerrero? Maybe the St. Paul Saints. He stinks.

Joe: Do you think the White Sox should be at least interested in Kemp? They have more money and less prospects than other contenders and could use him as a DH.

Dave Cameron: Matt Kemp is bad.

Matt: Will the Braves will keep Albies and Swanson in the minors until next season?

Dave Cameron: No, I bet both come up in the second half.

Ryan: Adam Duvall has had a productive year as the Reds left fielder. He is young and under team control for several years still, but the Reds also have some highly regarded OF prospects waiting in the minors. Should they try to trade Duvall at the deadline this year?

Dave Cameron: Probably better off holding onto him and letting him establish more value than trying to sell high on a good few months. If he can show he’s a +3 WAR guy for a year or two, then you really have something to build around or trade for value. Right now, teams will still be somewhat skeptical, especially if the Reds are trying to move him.

Bork: You’re the GM of the Blue Jays. Michael Saunders continues his success to the all-star break. What would you use as a starting point when offering him an extension?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t. So many health problems, you go year to year with him.

Sean: You mentioned the Dbacks trading Greinke – what about trading Tomas? His bat has certainly improved and his defense is coming around, though still bad. Still not good enough to warrant contract?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think anyone would take Tomas’ contract at this point.

JR: Braun…163 wRC+…1.2 WAR already…negative trade value…wha?

Dave Cameron: 32 year old with nearly $100M in guaranteed money on the books, litany of health problems, regularly out of the lineup lately, PED history.

Dancing Dan Mcgrewww: Who has done more long term damage to their franchise with their foolish put the chips in approach: the D’backs or the Padres?

Dave Cameron: The Padres. The D’Backs could theoretically still move Greinke, Miller could bounce back, they still have Goldschmidt and Pollock. The Padres best asset, at this point, is a guy they got for Yonder Alonso.

Erik: Where do you think Mike Trout finishes on the career WAR leaderboards? Top 25 (91.2)? Top 10 (126.8)? Top 3 (149.9)? His 42.0 WAR accumulated before age 25 give him a pretty good head start.

Dave Cameron: Top 10.

Shawn: *If* the Bluejays make the playoffs do you see the rotation as Stroman, Estrada, Happ and Dickey with Sanchez in the pen? Or do you see them trading for a starter if they are in contention? Thanks

Dave Cameron: I bet they’ll trade for another starter to let them shift Sanchez to RP, and then that guy and Dickey will compete for 4th spot in playoff rotation.

Dooduh: You think Lucroy returns 2 top 100 prospects + ? Similar return to Gomez from a year ago?

Dave Cameron: Somewhere in there, maybe a bit more, since he’s so cheap.

Dancing Dan Mcgrewww: will the body types of Fielder and Pablo breaking down so early curb the heavier set guys future earnings despite how good their numbers were prior?

Dave Cameron: Teams have been overpaying heavy power hitters forever. Some owner will talk themselves into the next guy like that too.

j6takish: T/F : Tigers probably won’t commit to a rebuild until Ilitch passes

Dave Cameron: True.

Rick: Do you like Jay Bruce to the White Sox to DH as a potential deadline deal?

Dave Cameron: It makes sense, yeah.

Daniel: When do you think Trea Turner is up? Will they consider trading him or Giolito?

Dave Cameron: Well Danny Espinosa keeps hitting bombs lately, so they’ll wait for him to cool off again. And no, I don’t see either of them getting traded.

Phillip: What are your thoughts on Kazmir the rest of the way?

Dave Cameron: He’s a perfectly useful mid-rotation starter.

Cory: Two years ago, the Pirates ran into a historic MadBum in the Wild Card. Last year, a historic Arrieta. This year, they seem to be on a collision course to draw either Scherzer or Syndergaard, should they make it. As a Pirates fan, please give me a glimmer of hope.

Dave Cameron: Great pitchers have bad games too. Get there enough times and eventually you’ll get through.

HUNGRY: Don’t you think the Indians could give Boston a hard time in October? If carrasco is healthy they have 3 starters that could give any offense trouble over a playoff series.

Dave Cameron: Starting pitching is overrated in the postseason.

ndbrian: If you were starting a team tomorrow, rank who you would want: Polanco, Betts, or Bryant?

Dave Cameron: Bryant, Betts, Polanco.

Matt: Ian Desmond has seemingly re-created himself in Texas. Is this due to actual changes to his skillset, or just a fresh start?

Dave Cameron: The move to the OF was the best thing he could have done.

zachA: Marlon Byrd failed another PED test. He’d been producing (129 wRC+) for Cleveland this year. Sucks for them.

Dave Cameron: He had a 109 wRC+, not 129. He’s replaceable, but they still need to make a trade for an OF or two.

Nik: Do the Phillies dangle Hellickson at the deadline ans what would the return be like?

Dave Cameron: They’ll listen, but they’re going to have to shut down Nola and Velasquez at some point, so you can’t just have no pitchers for the second half. If the offers are good, they’ll make a deal, but they shouldn’t just give him away.

Sirras: Re: bleakest outlook – Angels have to be up there with the Padres, no?

Dave Cameron: If they didn’t have the best player in the world, sure. But they do.

Q-Ball: Has Albert Pujols, in your opinion, already earned a trip to the Hall of Fame, even if he is not ever good again?

Dave Cameron: Certainly, no question.

Daniel: Any thoughts on the draft next week? Fun things you’re hearing from draft experts?

Dave Cameron: Seems like we might see a lot of deals cut at the top of the draft. Consensus is that there isn’t a true 1-1 in this draft, so top teams all looking to save money to try and draft a guy who slips with their 2nd/3rd picks.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Is Alex Guerrero the guy who has the right to opt out if the Dodgers traded him? How does that work if he gets claimed off waivers due to being DFA’d? Does he still have that opt out power?

Dave Cameron: He’s been so bad he won’t opt out. He’d get a minor league deal if he was an FA, so he’ll keep his guaranteed money.

HUNGRY: How long do you think it will be until the average fan realizes that someone like matt kemp is bad?

Dave Cameron: We’re not that far away. OBP is mainstream now, and everyone knows a .250 OBP for a corner OF sucks.

Daniel: Predict an all star snub!

Dave Cameron: They never carry four second baseman, so one of Altuve, Cano, Kinsler, and Pedroia won’t make it.

Sgt Cortez: Podcast this week?

Dave Cameron: Recording today!

Bonertron5000: Do you have any details on what exactly happened with the lasers being used prior to the Dodgers/Mets games last weekend? How are lasers being used to help players find their defensive spots?

Dave Cameron: Lasers are overstating it. They’re rangefinders, which are commonly used in lots of outdoor activities. They just measure how far from a certain distance you are.

Ben: If you’re the Cubs, what do you do as the trade deadline approaches? Try to make a splash (and at what position?) or hold tight and dabble with picking up a depth piece here and there?

Dave Cameron: I’d aim for the best lefty reliever I could get — Andrew Miller is the dream scenario — and a left fielder.

Colin: There was discussion in Sullivan’s chat that an argument could be made that Rich Hill would be in the top 5 list of pitchers right now, meaning you select any pitcher to make one start, and he’d have to be considered. I’d have a hard time picking Hill over Kershaw, Arrieta, Thor, Sale, or Stras in a must win game. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t see the argument. You didn’t even mention Jose Fernandez, Max Scherzer, or David Price. Hill is not in the conversation.

Big Fish: Mike Trout has been remarkable consistent with the bat his whole career, with a wOBA in the .402 – .423 range. Do you think he’ll ever see a hitting spike, and turn in a run of Cabrera-esque/Pujolsian .440+ wOBA seasons? Or do you think he’ll just keep doing what he’s doing?

Dave Cameron: It’s just tough to see what he can realistically improve on. It’s already top-shelf power. I guess he could figure out how to strike out even less, but there just aren’t many guys who can hit for power and not strike out.

Ian: Could the Red Sox get a quality SP if they packaged Swihart + lesser prospects, while ideally keeping the Moncada/Benitendi/Espinoza group?

Dave Cameron: Sure. Lots of teams would love to pick up Swihart as a buy-low guy.

Chicago Mark: Where do you see Kershaw in the list of top pitchers when all is said and done? Top 10? Top 20?

Dave Cameron: Depends on longevity. 10-20 seems likely, could be top 10 if he keeps this up for a few more years.

Will: George Springer has to be in the conversation for best non-Harper/Trout outfielder in baseball, no?

Dave Cameron: No, that’s still McCutchen.

Richie: Probably should mention why starting pitching is overrated in the postseason. Not everyone is as smart as you and me. Well, me.

Dave Cameron: Relievers pitch a larger percentage of innings in the postseason, so their value goes up and SP value goes down. The one SP who matters as much or more is the #1 guy who gets 2 starts in a 5 game series, but having multiple good middle-of-the-rotation guys isn’t as valuable in October as it is in April-September.

JWR: Cubs’ 4th and 5th starter this year are Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks. Are they the best 4th and 5th starters in baseball?

Dave Cameron: It’s them or Matz/Colon.

Snarfle: For HOF considerations, do you see value as purely cumulative? If a borderline player has an extra few years of hurting his team, can he go backwards in your own view of him?

Dave Cameron: I don’t care too much about negative production years. Pujols is in for me even if he’s -2 WAR for the next decade.

ShakeyourtooshyHasegawa: Is Buster Posey on a HoF trajectory. I saw that his 7.7 WAR season was a top 10 season all time among catchers..plus, ya know, he’s amazing.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s an easy hall of famer if he stays healthy.

David: Whoa, Bryant > Betts to start a team? I know you’re a big Betts fan. Could you elaborate?

Dave Cameron: I’m a big fan of both. Think Bryant has more power he hasn’t shown yet, and Mookie’s skillset peaks a bit earlier, so he probably has less room to grow.

Guest: How many losses have the Nationals cost themselves so far this season by leaving Trea Turner at AAA?

Dave Cameron: Less than 1.

Nick: Does Off and Def both count a players positional adjustment or is it just Def

Dave Cameron: Just DEF, because you only play the position on the field on defense. OFF is BAT+BSR, DEF IS FLD+POS.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to get some lunch before we record the podcast. Thanks for hanging out today, everyone.