Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 9/30/15

Dave Cameron: Alright, the queue is now open, so feel free to get your questions in, and we’ll start in about 20 minutes.

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get this thing started.

Comment From Andrew
All of a sudden a bunch of playoff teams are looking very mortal. The Cards are getting crushed with injuries, the Royals and Dodgers are racing to jump off a cliff first, the Yankees are treading water, and the AL West is still nuts. Care to hazard a best guess at what’s going to happen?

Dave Cameron: The playoffs are going to start and we’re going to forget all this? There’s been no real proof that September performance matters in October.

Comment From Guest
since WAR is FIP based, that means it’s not taking park into account right? so WAR would undervalue pitchers in a hitters park? do I have that correct?

Dave Cameron: No, we add in park adjustments when calculating WAR.

Dave Cameron: Our WAR isn’t just FIP * IP. There’s a bunch of adjustments in there, for league, role, park, the number of infield flies a pitcher generates, the run/win conversion. It’s a pretty complex calculation.

Comment From Guest
The jays have to be considered the most likely team to win the WS right now right?

Dave Cameron: Probably, yes. The NL teams all have to go through other elite teams, but the Jays are the only really great team in the AL.

Comment From Squall
Am I crazy for thinking the Cardinals should give Wainwright a start to see what they have? I don’t trust Wacha or Lynn for the postseason rotation.

Dave Cameron: An effectively leveraged multi-inning reliever can be just as valuable as a one-start starter in a playoff series.

Dave Cameron: And I’d imagine it’s probably wise to not push the guy too quickly.

Comment From Renan
Do you think it makes sense to go with four starters in the playoffs? Wouldn’t it be more efficient to use that erstwhile 4th starter as a swingman and just limit the innings of the other three? That way there’s less of a chance of the bad middle relievers on teams being put into high leverage spots. Even with a team like the Mets that has rotation depth, it seems like they’d be better off just getting their starters to go 5-6 innings and having Matz throw 1-2 innings every other game.

Dave Cameron: If you go to a three man rotation, you have to start guys on short rest, which has historically shown to not be worth the cost.

Comment From Bill
Do you think Kershaw hits 300 strikeouts?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how many innings the Dodgers let him throw in his final start. My guess would be he’s going to be limited to 4-5 innings on Sunday, so probably not.

Comment From Guest
do you have any good books/blogs/whatever you recommend for whats good for a woman to eat or do while shes pregnant? as far as health of the fetus is concerned? I don’t even know where to start….

Dave Cameron: Just find an OBGYN she trusts and listen to her. I think one of the better decisions we made during pregnancy was to not read every book offered to us; you can drive yourself insane trying to follow all the crazy advice out there. The demand for secret special insight relating to babies is so high that it forces a supply of useless content, which I think is mostly better off ignored.

Comment From roy
Please tell me the red sox would not trade betts or bogaerts for harvey….

Dave Cameron: No chance.

Comment From Colin
Which team characteristics tend to be more important in the postseason? Contact rate, bullpen, etc.

Dave Cameron: There is no clear team design that works better in October than others. Having a few dominant arms helps more than having rotation depth, but any kind of team can win if they’re good enough to get there.

Comment From Tim
Longoria’s original deal expires next year – does his 6 year/$100 mil extension look bad in hindsight or is it still a win for the Rays?

Dave Cameron: Do you think Longoria would get less than Sandoval as an FA this winter? No way, right. Still a win for the Rays.

Comment From FireDrayton
By Baseruns, the Astros should be running away with the AL West. Can Astros fans hang their hat on that as hope for next season? Could there be something about this team’s construction (boom-or-bust lineup, for example) that makes it more prone to underperforming Baseruns?

Dave Cameron: The only thing that teams that underperform BaseRuns consistently have in common is poor bullpen performances, but predicting bullpen performances is tricky enough as it is, so no, it’s almost certainly not going to carry over to next year.

Comment From Ed
Is this the year that Cubs fans suddenly get incredibly annoying and irritating, much like the Red Sox fans did in 2004? I am really getting tired of all of the traffic demanding Jake Arrietta being considered for the MVP award. Enough already!

Dave Cameron: Portions of every team’s fan base get really annoying at times. It isn’t specific to the Cubs.

Comment From Guest
in a hypothetical game 7, knowing nothing about the other teams lineup (lefty heavy or righty heavy), would you take arrieta over any other non Kershaw pitcher in all of MLB?

Dave Cameron: Maybe. But Price/Sale would be considerations too. And about 5 other guys. There’s so many good pitchers.

Comment From Joe D
Thoughts on Dipoto with M’s?

Dave Cameron: Probably the best hire they could make given the stated preference for previous GM experience.

Comment From klof
Maddon is trying everyone at new positions now that the wild card is locked up. Bryant at 1B and all the OF positions, Coghlan at 1B, etc. Why don’t more teams do this in these last few games?

Dave Cameron: I think Maddon probably have more buy-in from his players on doing weird stuff than most managers.

Comment From Jaack
Which Fangraphs writer would be most likely to be choked by Papelbon for not hustling enough?

Dave Cameron: I think Papelbon would probably choke out Cistulli just because.

Comment From #22
Without question, the playoffs are a crapshoot. But how much of a crapshoot are they? the better team should still have an advantage percentage wise

Dave Cameron: Yes, the better teams win more often. But the spread in talent between teams at this level is very small.

Comment From Dooduh
Who do you see pursuing Zobrist the hardest this winter? Mets-Yankees death match?

Dave Cameron: Definitely seems like a guy the Mets would target.

Comment From Jays fan
Which potential playoff team presents the biggest matchup challenge to the Jays bats?

Dave Cameron: A team with a lot of good RH pitching. So the Mets, maybe?

Comment From #22
Dallas Kiechal has achieved his success as an EXTREME ground ball pitcher. Is that more or less sustainable than a guy like David Price who succeeds by the normal K%/BB% method?

Dave Cameron: Both are sustainable, but Price probably has more margin for error with his stuff. He can lose a few ticks and still be very good, where Keuchel is kind of hovering near the bottom of the velocity-range where you can still be this good.

Comment From HappyFunBall
Five games left, is there anything that my Nationals could do to make this season more of a disaster?

Dave Cameron: Bryce Harper, torn ACL.

Comment From Raindog
If Kershaw took his regular turn on the last day of the season he could still start game 1 of the NLDS on regular rest 5 days later. With home field advantage possibly at stake, why are we being deprived of 300K? Surely 5 or 6 innings to keep him in rhythm wouldn’t be a bad idea?

Dave Cameron: If home field is at play, then yeah, they’ll push him harder. I was assuming the game would be meaningless.

Comment From Greg
Most likely bounce back candidate for next year / biggest improvement?

Dave Cameron: Probably one of the Hanley/Sandoval/Victor Martinez trio of disaster free agents, right? They don’t have to be great to be huge upgrades over their -2 WAR seasons.

Comment From TKDC
Teams will continue to offer QOs to less and less “qualified” players until one is actually accepted, right? They just need to find equilibrium, and many teams are losing out on draft picks by being overly cautious, right?

Dave Cameron: Correct.

Dave Cameron: The key is really that most FAs want multi-year deals, and the short QO acceptance window means that they don’t really get to find out if there’s one out there for them or not.

Comment From dom
at trade value publish time, there was a pretty good debate to be made between Betts and Pederson. Is there a huge gap between them now?

Dave Cameron: Pederson is definitely going to fall when I do the off-season update.

Comment From klof
how would you rank the expected contracts of upton, heyward, cespedes? if you had to, which would you give too much money to, too many years to, and be comfortable seeing him walk away?

Dave Cameron: I think Heyward gets the most, then Cespedes and Upton get very similar deals. I’d pay the most for Heyward, because he’s the best and youngest of the three. Years depends entirely on AAV.

Comment From Ray
How do you respond when people say Kershaw can’t pitch in the playoffs?

Dave Cameron: I don’t. That’s generally not the kind of fan that will listen to reason anyway.

Comment From tom
What an intriguing NL Cy Yong race we have. Good one to have a vote in. Cubs fan and does seem like Arrieta will get the nod, but find it hard to ignore Kershaw’s far superior FIP based WAR/K & BB rates. I know you can’t say too much, but what can you say?

Dave Cameron: I can say that this is basically an impossible decision. The top three all deserve an award for what they’ve done this year. It’s really going to be 1A, 1B, and 1C for me.

Comment From dom
Cubs-Yankees WS would draw the best TV ratings: true/false

Dave Cameron: Probably true, unless Mets/Yankees drew in a lot of fans.

Comment From Danny
Who’s mvp If Angels in playoff?

Dave Cameron: Donaldson is going to win, no matter what happens rest of the way.

Comment From Forsyth
Was looking at Crawford vs Bogaerts. Crawford has higher wrc+ (115 to 112) but lower OFF rating (8.2 to 13). Couldn’t figure out why. Any insight?

Dave Cameron: Baserunning.

Dave Cameron: And playing time.

Comment From Bryan
By K-BB%, Lance McCullers looks like one of the best 21 or under pitchers in history, trailing only Kerry Wood, Jose Fernandez, Dwight Gooden, Don Sutton and Roger Clemens. Realizing command and health could get in the way, does his stuff allow him to continue at that level?

Dave Cameron: You have to adjust for league averages at the times; the ever-expanding strike zone makes it much easier to strike guys out now.

Comment From Ryan
The Yankees coughed up a 7 game division lead and are doing everything in their power to not clinch a wildcard spot. Any heat on Girardi or Cashman if the season continues on this path after two bad years?

Dave Cameron: They weren’t really supposed to be a great team heading into the year and they’ve been crushed by injuries. That they’re still likely a playoff team is an accomplishment.

Comment From ryan
do DL stints (procedural not the injury) carry into the offseason? Saw the Cards placed Martinez on the 60 day DL with a month of baseball left

Dave Cameron: No, that was just to open up a 40 man spot for Wainwright. DL assignments get wiped out at the end of the year.

Comment From Guest
Gut reaction: Who wins NL Wild Card?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know. I think the Pirates are very slightly better than the Cubs, and they’ll have home field. But Arrieta is an advantage for the Cubs. It’s so close.

Comment From klof
Arrieta hit a HR the other day. You said you take pitcher offense into consideration. How much does Jake benefit from doing all this awesomeness late in the season?

Dave Cameron: When he hit that second deep fly, I said that if he hits two homers and throws a perfect game, I’d vote for him just based on that. When it’s this close, stuff like that adds up.

Comment From Forsyth
Should Red Sox fans be optimistic for 2016 based on the past 2 months, or is this a ‘late season, out of it team, don’t put much stock into it’ situation?

Dave Cameron: They’re showing what many of us thought they’d be good this year to begin with.

Comment From Aaron
It seems like the lay-baseball media has finally moved past “wins” as a measure of success for cy-young voting. With Kershaw dominating the FIP and WAR categories in the NL, do you think it will take a few more years for the general public to vote based on that?

Dave Cameron: Well I don’t think voters should just vote based on FIP and WAR. I’m not going to. But I do think that mostly the writers have moved from wins to ERA, which is an improvement, but still not ideal.

Comment From klof
Which playoff bound manager is most likely to try starting a game with a high-leverage reliever against the first 6 batters in the 0-0 first 2 innings before bringing in the usual “starter”?

Dave Cameron: Maddon, clearly.

Dave Cameron: I could see them doing something like that with Travis Wood, hoping the other team starts an anti-LHP line-up, and then bringing in Cahill and going bullpen the rest of the way.

Comment From F. Luna
Has Kershaw’s season gone a little bit under appreciated? 6 Ks away from 300 2.04 FIP 2.14 xFIP and a 8.4 WAR yet it seems like hes been annointed, unanimously, as the 3rd candidate for the CY Young.

Dave Cameron: ERA is a powerful drug. Hopefully people start getting past it like they did with wins.

Comment From dom
Whose most likely to sign David Price this winter?

Dave Cameron: Assuming Greinke re-signs with LA and they don’t want three guys in their rotation who cost $100M per year combined, I’d guess Boston, Chicago, and New York in some order.

Comment From Jays fan
Imagine if Tulo comes back and plays like TULO

Dave Cameron: Legitimate reasons to think that he may not be that guy anymore.

Comment From Mr. Thell
Given the influx of talent from the minor league system and the surprising performance of some guys already up, how do you see the Twins future? Are they going to be a playoff team for the next few years?

Dave Cameron: They weren’t a good team this year; they just won a bunch of games due to sequencing. They’re not particularly close to being a good team, I don’t think.

Comment From Alex
If you are the Cardinals, who do you want to win the NL Wild Card Game? Pirates?

Dave Cameron: There’s no weak opponent there.

Comment From Joel
What do you think of the Dipoto hire, and do you think McClendon is gone?

Dave Cameron: I can’t imagine Dipoto will really want to not pick his manager after what happened in LA.

Comment From Jim
Are the Red Sox getting Price? Seems like the writing is on the wall

Dave Cameron: Dombrowski obviously likes him, but I wouldn’t go that far. The fact that they ended up promoting Hazen to GM and keeping most of the FO guys there means that it probably won’t be as big a shift in philosophy as I first assumed, and so they may still not want to do 7-8 year deals for a pitcher.

Comment From James
Do you think we can expect a very different Mariners 25 man roster regarding players types compared to what we’ve seen in the recent past?

Dave Cameron: I would expect the days of sticking guys like Nelson Cruz and Mark Trumbo in the outfield will probably be over.

Comment From Nelson
Seager, Rollins, Utley, Turner, Kendrick. They wont all make the Dodgers playoff roster, right?

Dave Cameron: Enrique Hernandez too. It’s definitely a crowded mix. I could see Rollins maybe getting left off.

Comment From Andrew
If you’re the Giants, how do you attack the offseason given the substantial amount of money coming off the books? Do you shoot for 1 of the Price / Greinke class or sign a couple guys who may cost a bit less (i.e. Leake / Samardzija)

Dave Cameron: I could see them going Leake/Zimmermann.

Comment From Scott
Can the Giants just stop playing Marlon Byrd so he doesn’t get his option? Or would the union be able to complain about that?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, you can’t just bench a guy to avoid an option from vesting. You have to have some plausible alternative reason.

Comment From jj
I find it annoying that people talk and write about the MVP and CY Awards to much – is it because so many teams are out of it now that makes the media think this is the one thing that is interesting to the majority of fans. Personally I could care less how writers vote.

Dave Cameron: Publications are driven by ads, and ads are driven by traffic, so publications decide what to write about based on what people want to read. And people *love* reading about awards.

Comment From Andrew
I’m tired of working my boring 9-5 job and want to start freelancing and do my own thing, but I’m nervous about losing benefits and rrsp contributions. How scared should I be of going into the wilderness on my own?

Dave Cameron: Don’t forget to account for the 15% self employment tax you’ll have to pay on your freelancing income. Having freelanced between working full-time salaried jobs, I much prefer the latter. It depends on how much you value your freedom, I guess, but I find freelancing quite stressful.

Comment From Joel
Is Brad Miller a viable center fielder going forward?

Dave Cameron: He’s just fine at SS. It’s his best position, and where he’s most valuable.

Comment From Tom
What % chance would you give you the Jays over NY in the ALDS?

Dave Cameron: Maybe 60%.

Comment From Andrew
what can Greinke expect this offseason? 6/$175M or is that too high of an AAV?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess probably something in that range, or maybe 5/$165 if they convince him to go a little shorter term.

Comment From The Coon
Of all the the teams ticketed for the playoffs, which one do you personally want to see win it all?

Dave Cameron: I think I’m probably going to be rooting for the winner of the Cubs/Pirates game to go all the way. Would be a great story either way.

Comment From James
How does Tanaka compare to the Kershaw/Price/Sale tier of pitchers?

Dave Cameron: He’s not in that tier.

Comment From jj
Without looking who do you think STL’s best pitcher, as measured by WAR is this year?

Dave Cameron: Probably Carlos Martinez.

Comment From Doug
Has Rich Hill earned a major league contract for 2016?

Dave Cameron: For sure.

Comment From Depressed
Fister’s gotta be a bounce back candidate, right? right??

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s the most obvious take-a-one-year-deal guy this winter.

Comment From Phil
Which FA has the toughest offseason decision on whether to accept the QO or hope the market values him for decent AAV in multi-year deal? Samardzija?

Dave Cameron: Shark will get a bunch of good multi-year offers this winter. I’d think the line where the QO comes into play for FAs would be closer to the Daniel Murphy types.

Comment From ben
I assume you feel Papelbon’s attack of Harper was inexcusable and actually qualifies as assault?

Dave Cameron: Of course it was inexcusable, but it wasn’t any more an assault that should be prosecuted than throwing a baseball at someone. There’s a lot of stuff that happens in baseball that would get you arrested if you did it on the street.

Comment From James
Dipoto mentioned speed and defense in the OF… Chance they make a legitimate push for Heyward in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: Unlikely. I’d imagine they might aim for buy-low guys instead. Maybe call the Rangers about Leonys Martin or someone like that.

Comment From Mr_SKIA
With all the great young shortstops coming into the league, is the sudden (relative) lack of positional scarcity going to affect their individual WARs, or am I misunderstanding how it is calculated?

Dave Cameron: The positional adjustments are fixed, so an influx of talent at a position won’t impact their baselines. That’s one of the primary advantages of doing the positional adjustment based on defense rather than offense. The old way of coming up with a baseline using offensive differences between positions would screw over up-the-middle players when there was a surge of really great players who could play those positions and hit well too.

Comment From SX
What would you pay for the next 5 years of Jason Heyward? What would ZiPS say?

Dave Cameron: If he limited himself to only a five year deal? Probably $150 million, somewhere in there.

Dave Cameron: But he’ll get 7-8 years easily, and maybe 9-10.

Comment From Guest
I don’t want to hurt the chances of you voting for Arrieta by this, but if the halves of his season were flipped, would he still be a top candidate?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From tom
You have mentioned (I think?) before that the gap between the true talent of teams (best/worst) in the NFL is much greater than MLB. Why is this considering that the former has a salary cap and draft system that should favour equality? Just interested to know… Thanks

Dave Cameron: I’m not a football expert, but I believe the marginal value of star players is much higher in the NFL (and NBA), so success is much more heavily driven by which teams have own the rights to those few hugely valuable players, and the teams who don’t have those guys basically can’t win until they get one.

Comment From Joel
Kershaw still the best pitcher on the planet?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Lawrence
Besides the Mets potentially, which other teams do you think will make a big offer to Cespedes?

Dave Cameron: Tigers, maybe the Astros, maybe the Rangers, Cubs could be in the mix.

Comment From The+Dude
Are reigning MVP and Cy Young award winners at a disadvantage. Donaldson and Trout are having incredibly similar seasons, but it seems like a forgone conclusion Donaldson will win. Similarly, Kershaw will probably come in third in the Cy Young voting by a decent margin.

Dave Cameron: I do think there’s a slight tendency to give it to the new guy, but in this case, I think Donaldson’s edge is mostly about RBIs and his team being in first place, while Kershaw is fighting two guys with ERAs below 2.00.

Comment From Lawrence
Worst WS matchup for TV ratings: Pittsburgh vs. Houston?

Dave Cameron: Probably, yeah.

Comment From johnny5alive
Looks like the mets lining up harvey for game 3 of nlds. is that a mistake? could be down 0-2 at that point. wouldnt you want your 2 best pitchers against their 2 best?

Dave Cameron: Not really, no.

Dave Cameron: And I don’t think it’s clear that Harvey is much better than Syndergaard at this point.

Comment From Jon
Do you think Kershaw pitches Sunday, to keep him on regular rest for Game 1 of the NLDS and give him a shot at 300 k’s? Or do they give him a long rest? Do you think having a bunch of days off will hurt his effectiveness?

Dave Cameron: I would bet he’ll pitch, but the question is for how long.

Comment From Scott
What kind of contract do you see Samardija getting?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what he wants to do. If he wants to go one year and back on the market to try and maximize his payout, he could get near $20 million, probably. If he wants to get as much as he can this winter, maybe 4/$60?

Comment From Neal
The Jays have the money to go hard for Price and a new president who is willing to allow their GM to do what’s necessary. They gotta be in the mix to get Price this off-season, no?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it.

Comment From RMR
As a Reds fan, I look at the front offices in St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Chicago and get terribly depressed. As I recently moved to Ontario and have a 1-year old daughter who I’d like to be a baseball fan, I should just start buying her Jays gear, right?

Dave Cameron: Maybe I’ll change my mind when my son gets older, but I think I’d rather let my kid root for the local team than stick them with the team I grew up rooting for.

Comment From Joel
Is fixing the Nationals going to be a tall order, or can it be done relatively easily?

Dave Cameron: They’re not that broken. BaseRuns record of 87-70, and some very good young talent not far away.

Comment From jtt
Dexter fowler first guy to accept a QO?

Dave Cameron: No, he’ll get a 3-4 year deal.

Comment From Phil
Did the Cubs miss their chance to extend Arrieta?

Dave Cameron: Maybe, yeah. Two years from FA, coming off this season, he’s going to get a big payday in arbitration this winter, so his need to get security is mostly gone.

Comment From Gary
If you’re starting a team today and can’t take Trout, would you take Harper or Machado? Someone else?

Dave Cameron: Harper.

Comment From The Ghost of Dayn Perry
Have you started gathering two of every animal, Dave?

Dave Cameron: 85 and sunny here today! Nice change after a week of just constant rain.

Comment From klof
If you move, would it be important to you to be in a city with a MLB team?

Dave Cameron: It’d be nice, but it’s not a requirement.

Comment From zach
Dave – when you say you need to regress a players forecast what are you essentially doing? so you create a forecast based upon X, Y, Z independent variables and then do what? thanks!

Dave Cameron: Regressing is essentially adding in some number of league-average (or whatever you’re regressing towards) performances to the specific sample you have. So if you have 500 PAs with a 150 wRC+, and you’re trying to come up with “true talent wRC+”, maybe you’d add in 1,500 PAs of 100 wRC+, giving you a weighted average of 112. All numbers made up just for example purposes.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
Patrick Mooney wrote an article about the Cubs potentially using Bryant as a one year bridge in CF between Fowler and Almora. Think this could work? Fowler is nothing special defensively – perhaps Bryant wouldn’t be much of a step down.

Dave Cameron: Given how good he’s looked at 3B, I don’t know why you’d mess with that.

Dave Cameron: Okay, I’m off to get some work done. Thanks for hanging out everyone.