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De-Lucker! 2.0: Hot, Fresh, New xBABIP
Posted By Bradley Woodrum On July 10, 2012 @ 11:00 am In Athletics,Blue Jays,Brewers,Cubs,Dodgers,Giants,Orioles,Pirates,Rays,Reds,Royals,Teams,Tigers,Today in FanGraphs,Twins,White Sox,Yankees | 36 Comments
With this All-Star break forcing to watch so little baseball, we now have a moment to drink up the frothy milkshake of statistics from the first half. So, you and I, we shall dissect the stats and find out who has been lucky, unlucky and a little of both.
Combining Fielding Independent wOBA (FI wOBA for shortsies) and slash12′s xBABIP, we can get a specific wOBA calculation that strips away unusual luck, whether good or bad. It is important to remember these are both regression-based calculators, so they are backward-looking, not forward looking. Please do not pester me in 3 months when “[X Player] didn’t suck like you said he would! lulzlulzlulz, ur dum!”
Is BABIP the only stat that has a lot of luck in it? No. Stuff like home run rates can be wild early too. And moreover, BABIP is many parts skill, several parts luck. But there is more luck (or random variation) in BABIP than probably any other hitter stat out there. That is why it is worth focusing on it here.
Praise be to Jeff Zimmerman and Robert Boden (slash12) for updating the best xBABIP tool out there, and making it even better. They detected what I myself detected in my previous De-Lucker! rendition — that infield shifting and decreasing offense league-wide have rendered previous xBABIP tools, shall we say?, off.
These new De-Lucker results should be most splendidly accurate! Oh my!
(For the following calculations, I used their 2009-2011 constants.)
Reactions to the De-Lucker results:
With our 250 PA limits, we get:
And with the 250 PA threshold:
If he meets his career number (.378 BABIP), his expected regression slims down to 24 points at a .385 FI wOBA.
You can De-Luck! too!
Click this button to download the above Excel (.xlsx) file:
Then use this custom leaderboard and paste your results and limitations and queries into yonder first tab — so titled “De-Lucker 2.0 Full.” And pesto sauce! You’ve got your own, updated De-Lucker! results!
ALSO NOTE: Downloading the file will allow you to see the BABIPs and xBABIPs. They simply cannot fit in this narrow column.
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