With the non-waiver trade deadline past us, we can take a step back and see how each contender upgraded its roster. Because the season is two-thirds over, these players might not have an enormous impact. But for a contender sitting on the fringe, or a leader wanting to solidify its position, these acquisitions could make enough of a difference now, and then a bigger one come playoff time, when everyone starts from scratch.
To project the positional upgrade the team will receive, we’ll look at the wRAA the team has received so far from the position, the projected wRAA for the incumbent, and the projected wRAA for the replacement, based on ZiPS rest of season. We’ll assume 230 PA, which is based on a prorated 700 PA season. I’m leaving out defense, because I’m not comfortable projecting 1/3 of a season. I’m also leaving out guys such as Jerry Hairston, who are injury fill-ins rather than upgrades.
Atlanta Braves: Center Field
Braves wRAA from CF: -6.2 (25th in MLB)
Incumbent Jordan Schafer: -8.8 wRAA
Replacement Michael Bourn: 3.6 wRAA
Total Swing: 12.4 runs
Comments: That’s a one-win swing just on offense, which is huge for the Braves. It helps ensure their Wild Card lead, and perhaps will close the gap a bit between them and the Phillies. Again, this is a case where ZiPS ROS has undersold a player’s performance to date. Bourn currently has a .353 wOBA, so if he keeps the hot hitting going he’ll be even more of an upgrade — 7.6 wRAA, or a swing of more than 1.5 wins, just on offense.
Detroit Tigers: Third Base
Tigers wRAA from 3B: -20.9 (27th in MLB)
Incumbent Brandon Inge: -5.0 wRAA
Replacement Wilson Betemit: 1.6 wRAA
Total Swing: 6.6 runs
Comments: Inge was clearly done, both on offense and defense, and his ZiPS rest of season projection, .290 wOBA, was probably greatly generous. The other guy they’ve had playing third, Don Kelly, hits a similar ZiPS projection. Betemit, then, will net them more than half a win on offense going forward.
San Francisco Giants: Left Field
Giants wRAA from LF: 1.7 (13th in MLB)
Incumbent Cody Ross: 4.0 wRAA
Replacement Carlos Beltran: 10.4 wRAA
Total Swing: 6.6 runs.
Comments: The Giants have gone through many outfielders this year without much luck. Bringing in Beltran helps solidify that unit, and the lineup as a whole. They’re also probably expecting a bit more than his projected ROS stats, which are based on a .367 wOBA; he produced a .381 wOBA with the Mets.
Cleveland Indians: Right Field
Indians wRAA from RF: -13.2 (29th in MLB)
Incumbent Austin Kearns: -4.2 wRAA
Replacement Kosuke Fukudome: 1.4 wRAA
Total Swing: 5.6 runs
Comments: There was little chance that Kearns was getting 230 more PA this season, considering he doesn’t have that many to date. But he was part of a RF platoon with Travis Buck, and -4.2 wRAA is about the best we could expect from that tandem. Fukudome is a half win better than that on offense, despite his complete lack of power. There is a wild card here, in that Shin-Soo Choo is due back from the disabled list. His ZiPS ROS, based on a generous 150 PA, is 5.2 wRAA.
San Francisco Giants: Shortstop
Giants wRAA from SS: -28.7 (30th in MLB)
Incumbent Brandon Crawford: -8.4 wRAA
Replacement Orlando Cabrera: -4.0 wRAA
Total Swing: 4.4 runs
Comments: You could do a pick ‘em among the three guys with time at shortstop for the Giants — Crawford, Mike Fontenot, and Miguel Tejada — and come up with a below-average producer with the bat. Crawford was in there for his defense, which makes a degree of sense. But both Tejada and Fontenot have ZiPS ROS projections right in line with Cabrera’s. Are the Giants really getting that much better defense from Cabrera? I guess they considered him a better bet than the other two.
St. Louis Cardinals: Shortstop
Cardinals wRAA from SS: -9.7 (18th in MLB)
Incumbent Ryan Theriot: -3.8 wRAA
Replacement Rafael Furcal: -0.2 wRAA
Total Swing: 3.6 runs
Comments: Again, the idea here is that Furcal outperforms his ZiPS ROS projection. It’s tough to imagine, since he’s been nothing but terrible this season. Perhaps he’s a change of scenery guy who will pick it up. That’s what the Cardinals have to hope for. Otherwise, he’s probably going to perform worse at the plate than Theriot.
Pittsburgh Pirates: First Base
Pirates wRAA from 1B: -12.0 (27th in MLB)
Incumbent Lyle Overbay: 1.0 wRAA
Replacement Derrek Lee: 4.4 wRAA
Total Swing: 3.4 runs
Comments: It’s not a huge upgrade, but it’s definitely something. Both Overbay and Lee have underperformed their projections to date, though it has Overbay as the overall worse option. There are issues with Lee, both in his performance and in terms of RHB at PNC Park, but he’d be hard pressed to perform worse than Overbay. The Pirates will gain a few marginal runs for it, and it’s not as though Lee cost them much to acquire.
Philadelphia Phillies: Right Field
Phillies wRAA from RF: -3.6 (22nd in MLB)
Incumbent Domonic Brown: 7.0 wRAA
Replacement Hunter Pence: 7.4 wRAA
Total Swing: 0.4 runs
Comments: Clearly the Phillies did not believe that Brown’s ROS projection of a .350 wOBA was accurate. Then again, this move was as much for the future as it was for 2011. They’ll head into 2012 with an outfield of Brown, Pence, and Shane Victorino. In terms of 2011 it’s still an upgrade of sorts, since Brown produced only 1.6 wRAA during his time in right. Of course, the Phillies still might be best served by replacing Raul Ibanez and his 0.4 wRAA in left.
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