Deadline Recap: The “Should Have Done Mores”
Last week, I ranked the thirty major league teams based on their level of need to make moves prior to Sunday’s trade deadline. Some teams had a pressing need to acquire players in order to enhance their odds of making the playoffs. Other teams needed to capitalize on the high value of their assets and move them for the best possible returns of prospects. In reviewing the list now that the deadline has passed, most of the teams fell right in line with their rankings.
But the activity of certain teams over the weekend proved quite interesting. A couple of teams with a number of trade chips and a need to move them stood pat, while others made moves that clashed with their biggest needs. Another team primed for a playoff push made lateral moves, which is almost as bad as not doing anything at all. Obviously, each front office has its own way of operating and generating a game plan, but I can’t help but wonder what some of these teams were thinking this week.
Here are the teams whose activity approaching the deadline was questionable, and their rankings on the Trade Deadline Necessities list:
#20 – Minnesota Twins
At seven games out of the AL Central lead and even further away from the Wild Card, the Twins have no real shot at competing this year. While they have several nice pieces to build around, it’s also entirely possible that they fall into the problem area of mediocrity over the next few seasons, being neither good enough to contend nor bad enough to merit a complete overhaul. The Twins had five players rumored to be sought after, and moved none of them.
Granted, the interest in Michael Cuddyer cooled considerably over the last few weeks, but Denard Span, Jim Thome, Jason Kubel and Scott Baker were all linked to different teams. The Twins had feverish discussions with the Nationals about Span, but a deal could not be worked out. The Phillies inquired on Thome, but the Twins probably figured his pursuit of 600 home runs was a worthwhile marketing ploy in a lost season. Kubel drew interest from the Pirates, who eventually settled on Ryan Ludwick. He isn’t likely to return after the season so the Twins must have felt the offers weren’t commensurate with what he could provide to an acquiring team.
The Twins lack of activity was somewhat understandable, even if it would have made sense to make a bigger push to move Kubel, and especially when compared to the next team on the list.
#18 – Chicago Cubs
I am absolutely dumbfounded that the Cubs only dealt Kosuke Fukudome this week. Certain tradable players, like Aramis Ramirez and Kerry Wood, expressed a desire to remain in Chicago. But other players, like Carlos Pena and Marlon Byrd, were essentially rendered untouchable for reasons beyond anyone outside of Jim Hendry’s office. If available, Pena would have been a fantastic target for teams like the Angels and Diamondbacks. Plus, he signed a one-year deal with the Cubs, so it isn’t like they would have dealt away a superstar in the midst of a multi-year contract.
Byrd is signed to a reasonable contract right now and was on the Braves radar given his abilities as a center fielder. The same can be said of Reed Johnson, who also stayed put. The Cubs haven’t gone anywhere in a few years, and aren’t going anywhere now or over the next few seasons. This was the perfect year to deal some of their attractive assets, and they stood pat. Their lack of activity was especially confusing when juxtaposed against Ed Wade, who may not have made fantastic moves for the Astros, but who wheeled and dealed on the understanding that virtually any return improved the Astros.
#15 – Oakland Athletics
Of all the players that attracted interest — Josh Willingham, Coco Crisp, Brian Fuentes, Michael Wuertz and Conor Jackson — only Brad Ziegler changed addresses. Ziegler brought back Brandon Allen, a burly 1B/OF type with power quite similar to Michael Taylor and Chris Carter. The As seem more like a victim of circumstance here, as the teams searching for players at those positions solved their problems elsewhere. But they could have made more of an effort to at least move Crisp, an adequate center fielder on a reasonable deal that certainly would have improved teams with up-the-middle weaknesses.
#12 – Baltimore Orioles
Getting rid of Derrek Lee was great, as Aaron Baker will do more for the Orioles than Lee did, even if he stinks in, or never makes it to, the majors. They shouldn’t have been expected to deal Vladimir Guerrero, as his injury and suckitude sapped any potential trade value. But Jeremy Guthrie stayed put despite rampant rumors that he would be dealt. It’s hard to fathom why he wasn’t dealt.
Sure, the sudden emergence of Ubaldo Jimenez as an available trade target changed the landscape of the starting pitching market, but teams will pay more for 1+ years of a starter than one or fewer years. Given the state of the Orioles organization, any reasonable offer for their de facto ace would have greatly improved the system. Guthrie will probably be dealt in the offseason, or by next year’s deadline, but the Orioles could have extracted a better return now, when he can impact one more playoff race.
#10 – Tampa Bay Rays
Perhaps the clubhouse issues surrounding B.J. Upton are perceived to be more problematic by front offices than fans and analysts. Or maybe the Rays requests were too rich for the liking of potential trade partners. Either way, it is puzzling that Upton wasn’t moved this weekend. The Braves and Nationals were clearly searching specifically for a center fielder, and others were obviously looking at outfielders in general, yet the rumors about Upton’s departure almost vanished after Thursday.
Under control until 2013, and expendable to the Rays given the promotion of Desmond Jennings, Upton will be dealt. It’s just a matter of when. Perhaps the Nationals’ struggles to acquire Denard Span and the extremely thin free agent crop of outfielders will expedite a deal this offseason, but it sure seemed for a while that his departure from Tampa Bay this week was inevitable.
#8 – Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are a mere three games behind the Rangers in the AL West, and have issues on offense at easy-to-fix positions like first base or the corner outfield, and they did nothing. It would have taken an awful lot of improvement to give the Rangers a run for their money, and with the division leaders fixing their one glaring weakness by bringing in Mike Adams and Koji Uehara, it will be even tougher for the Angels to contend.
If the front office felt similarly and decided against dealing prospects when they are nothing more than a quasi-contender, fine, but acquiring Carlos Pena really wouldn’t have cost much. Nor would trading for Casey Kotchman. Mark Trumbo has power, sure, but his on base percentage leaves much to be desired, and the difference between he and an acquisition might not have put the team over the top, but it would have helped more than it hurt the farm system.
#2 – Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks biggest issues were finding a shortstop to fill in for Stephen Drew so that Cody Random and Willie Bloomquist weren’t pressed into regular duty, and improving first base beyond Juan Miranda and Brandon Allen. Instead, they traded Allen for a middle reliever in Brad Ziegler, and dealt shortstop prospect Zach Walters for Jason Marquis, a starter that will help them, but one that wasn’t needed. I’ll put it this way: not bringing in a shortstop capable of coming close to replacing Drew hurts much more than Marquis and Ziegler will help.
#1 – Pittsburgh Pirates
Sigh. While getting swept by the Phillies really hurt their playoff odds, the Pirates had a chance to make a real impact move or two to capitalize on their success. Instead, the deadline passed with the Buccos making two lateral moves: trading for Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick, neither of whom can do much of anything anymore. Lee is an upgrade over Lyle Overbay, but so is basically anyone else already on the roster.
As far as Ludwick goes, the 2008-09 version would really help the Pirates. The 2011 Ludwick is no better than Matt Diaz. The Pirates probably weren’t going to make the playoffs even if they made an impact move, but trading for Lee and Ludwick seems more like trying to create the perception of effort than actually trying to improve the team.
As for the Pirates, I think you’re right….and I think the Bucs were right. The deals satiated the fanbase a bit. They are slight upgrades, and they didn’t have to sell the farm. They tried to get Kubel and Pena but they were taken off the block. They went hard after Beltran but he refused to come.
The Pirates got little, but they gave little, and for a team that’s much stronger in the minors (but still thin), that’s good. Considering the insane prices going for guys this summer (Pence, Mike Adams, even Ubaldo), the Bucs simply couldn’t afford to part with their top prospects.
If they could be faulted for anything, it was not turning into sellers after seeing what a ridiculous seller’s market it was….of course then, much of the fan base would have crucified Neal Huntington.
Could not agree more and couldn’t have said it better myself. The moves were made primarily for PR – the majority of the Pirate fans see the name Derek Lee and wrongfully believe the Bucs just received the same guy that terrorized them in the mid and late 90′s when in reality he’s a slight upgrade over Overbay. Ludwick is even less of an improvement but, like Lee, was a very low-cost move (even though it’s not known who is going to the Friars, it’s my understanding that the Padres can choose from a list of players given to them OR cash, which leads me to believe they player won’t be substantial). Two very low cost moves that result in higher fan confidence and a slightly better chance of competing against the Cards and BrewCrew for a division (that probably isn’t in reach anyway) equals a win in my eyes.
The fans have crucified the Pirates ownership and front office for about a decade now, reflecting in poor attendance due to a substandard product on the field despite arguably baseball’s most beautiful stadium.
Turning into sellers was not an option as you mention. A few lateral moves keeps the fans interested and coming to the stadium so that the owner can continue to pocket the revenue sharing $$.
“A few lateral moves keeps the fans interested and coming to the stadium so that the owner can continue to pocket the revenue sharing $$.”
Your wealth of ignorance is astounding. Why would Nutting have *added* payroll if all he was interested in doing was pocketing revenue sharing $?
July 31st was not really a deadline for the Cubs. They still have another month to dump all of those contracts. Benefit of having really, really bad contracts that nobody would ever claim!
Soriano and Zambrano for sure get through, Ramirez probably (because there’s no guarantee that he would waive the option, although it sounds like he’s not going to exercise that option that’s a big money bet to take), but I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone claim Pena assuming the claiming team only owes the portion of the deferred money for the time he’s on their team with the Cubs owing the rest. Claiming team would likely owe him about a million for the rest of the season and the same in January, that’s fairly doable.
I’m sorry, the card says Moops
Shocked about Carlos Pena, but like said above, he can be moved in August. And no other 1B was moved besides Derrek Lee, was there? So, how in demand was Pena, REALLY? Standing pat and hoping for a new suitor is a risk, but maybe a good one if the only guy offered in return was outside of Pitt’s Top 30.
Byrd…if the return for Bourn was that bad, what’s the worst that can happen by waiting until next July when Brett Jackson will have a bit more seasoning?
Pena to Pittsburgh is a deal that should have happened, but it’s impossible to know who was at fault without knowing the details of their discussions – offers, counteroffers, etc.
I have to assume the Pirates didn’t want to pay the $5 million due Pena next year because of his unusual contract. I can’t really blame them.
Ryan Ludwick’s wRC+ is 15 points higher than Matt Diaz. Ludwick is also a significantly better fielder, both this year and over his career, than Matt Diaz. I’m underwhelmed by Ludwick as well, but can’t we avoid the “no better than Matt Diaz” hyberbole?
Yeah, I don’t think many realize how bad Overbay and Diaz have been. The WAR tradeoff is -0.8 for 1.5, more than 2 wins. Plus you have a legit shot that Ludwick hits like he did prior to his trade to SD in mid-2010 and/or Lee pulls his second half resurgence that he has done each of the last two seasons.
The reality is that no one trade was going to make the Bucs a legit contender, so why pay deadline prices. Make small moves with some upside and make a bigger deal in the offseason.
Phil Rodgers wrote in the Chicago Tribune: He (Jim Hendry) takes responsibility for the stand-pat plan, but you wonder if this is a case of him being a good soldier for his bosses, Tom Ricketts and Crane Kenney. Their priority seems to be on attendance, not the won-loss record.
Ricketts needs to show hes serious about improving the squad, with an eventual shot at the World Series, not a shot at 80 win team.
It would be hard to blame the Yanks for failing to get a SP upgrade considering the available arms, and their already playoff bound squad. Still, I wonder if this was a whiff at all for the Yankees.
You have CC and then… what as a “sure” thing in a playoff series? Which version of AJ shows up? How long before Colon’s hgh arm falls off?
The Yanks can sure slug but do they have the pitching to match up in the postseason at all, very suspect and any consistent arm, even a #4 or 5 starter would have probably helped them. Add in that the bullpen is still slowly recovering from injuries and you have a very vulnerable pitching staff for the Yanks.
What about Garcia and his 3.22/3.58/4.08 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) line? Also you can speculate that Colon and his 3.30/3.36/.326 line will fall off all you want, until it happens it’s pure speculation (by the way he didn’t take HGH that just makes you sound biased). I agree that there’s plenty of concern for the Yankees if Colon and Garcia BOTH stop producing, but even if one of them retains this magic the Yanks are by no means screwed.
CC
Colon/Garcia
Hughes/Nova
AJ
It isn’t the best scenario, but with their offense you’d be foolish to write them off.
Upton is a free agent after the 2012 season.
Isn’t after the 2012 season 2013? Maybe my math is not that good…
“If the front office felt similarly and decided against dealing prospects when they are nothing more than a quasi-contender, fine, but acquiring Carlos Pena really wouldn’t have cost much.”
This statement from the Angels blurb seems directly in conflict from this one below about the Cubs.
“But other players, like Carlos Pena and Marlon Byrd, were essentially rendered untouchable…”
The overall points are still valid, but we can’t really criticize the Angels for not picking up a player that we assume would cost very little when we also acknowledge that the Cubs made that player virtually untouchable, suggesting that he would’ve cost a great deal in trade.
I think replacing Brandon Allen with Paul Goldschmidt is going to help the D-Backs.
This list is missing a few teams no?
It’s “should of”, not “should have”.
Haha, nice.
assume you are making a joke because the correct phrase is always “should have”, never “should of”.
Not always…
“take the offer you should of the ones you have”
Here the error is missing a coma, not incorrect use of “of”.
Your final assessment of the Twins is about on, they have no good pieces to trade. They can not enter rebuilding unless they unload at least two of Nathan, Morenau, and Mauer (and good luck with getting rid of just one of them).
But Span is a guy with 3 WAR/season for his first three years and who is picking up on batting and UZR in his third year (a pretty typical to “hit your stride” in the majors) AND who is under team control until at least 2014 with a 2015 team option? And for a relief pitcher?
The only error was not getting rid of Kubel, but then again, signing him in the first place was probably an error so it is somewhat understandable that nobody else wanted him.
I think the success of San Fran last year and this gave a lot of teams pause. Sabermetrics say the Giants stink and can’t compete, but of course they are WS champs and contenders again. A lot of teams see the lousy WAR and OPS numbers that team has/had and knows that you can win anyway if parts of the game work even if the total package is underwhelming.
And I think Pittsburgh did well, got solid contributors who work hard and are unfazed by expectations, plus Lee has a good clubhouse effect. Baltimore would’ve sucked if he and Guerrero had WAR of 7.0, no pitching and no defence, but Lee was a calming influence in a room of lugheads and Guerrero is an inspiring influence in a team of lugheads. The players with ability (Jones, Markakis) are reaping the benefits of having those guys on board, now Pittsburgh gets one benefit. Remember, for 3-4 months the woes of Baltimore were all Lee and Guerrero’s fault, and that takes a lot of pressure off the guys who are truly at fault.
Oh boy. Where to begin? Jones has been developing is only 25 years of age. He hasn’t markedly improved his approach to offense and since 2008 has proven to be a substandard CF. I love the kid, but Derek Lee and Vlad had nothing to do with AJ’s production to date. Ditto Markakis, who before his hot July resurgence was on his way to an absolutely sucktastic season, and is still on pace to put up career low power numbers on top of completely forgetting how to take a walk.
That Vlad can be as bad as he’s been and still hit cleanup despite having Mark Reynolds hitting sixth or lower the majority of the season boggles the mind. Buck is proving to be horrible at managing his roster.
Is there an agreement between the Yankees and at least one other team that the Yankees will claim an expensive/overpriced veteran pitcher off waivers? Does Houston plan on waiving Wandy Rodriguez and/or Brett Myers and the Yankees intend to claim one or both players? It really is difficult to believe that the Yankees intend to enter the postseason with either A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Bartolo Colon, or Freddy Garcia as its #2 starter, and two of the remaining three as its #3 and #4 starters.
colon has pitched like a #2 but of course his arm might fall off. would i have liked ubaldo. sure but not at the price the rox were asking for. i’d rather stand pat and let the young guys get closer to the majors with us than spin them for crap that was left over.
Eh, it’s like i said in the last thread, willie bloomquist is as good as anyone the dbacks could’ve gotten at SS. As for 1B, they just called up slugging Paul Goldschmidt. Meanwhile they addressed their biggest need, relief pitching. Adding Marquis also allows owings or collmenter to go to the pen.
Agreed. The author states the Dbacks should have gotten a SS, but who? Is Rafael Furcal as he has played this season that much of an upgrade over Bloomquist? Who else was even available?
Still confused where people thought this replacement SS was coming from. The SS market, Jose Reyes excepted, was pretty mediocre at best. Willie Bloomquist is, as noted, terrible, but he’s actually been sorta helpful so far this year and it’s not like Barmes, Wilson, or Cabrera were gonna put the DBacks over the top.
Not sure I agree much with the Kotchman over Trumbo argument. Kotchman’s superior numbers are mostly BABIP driven. Any advantage he exhibits in OBP over Trumbo would certainly be trumped by Trumbo’s power numbers.
On the Dbacks: I’m less worried than Eric. As far as 1B is concerned, the Dbacks stood pat because the Paul Goldschmidt Experience begins today. If they traded for a 1B, Goldy doesn’t get consistent PT anyway, and the rental costs something and probably doesn’t put us over the top. Goldy probably won’t either, but he’s free.
On SS, Drew hadn’t really been setting the world on fire since his red-hot April — they’ve been winning in spite of him since May. Willie B and Geoff Blum can provide replacement-level SS play, and they’re already sunk cost.
I’m just happy we didn’t break the bank to chase down the Giants this year at the expense of next year.
Eric I disagree with your view of the Pirates moves. Ludwick was a solid move because he can platoon with Tabata when he Presley get back. Ludwick has had a better OPS vs. rhp every year of his career. Tababta meanwhile is 200 points better vs. LHP. And as another commenter stated, Overbay has been a disaster at 1B and Lee has hit pretty well for the last month or so (he got off to a similarly putrid start last year and rebounded to a solid finish after being dealt to Atlanta). Other than Pena, who did you expect them to get that would even vaguely resembled an “impact bat” at 1B? Same with outfield. They tried to get Beltran but he wasn’t coming. Pence was a bad a fit as a fellow FG writer explained in post last week. Even if they did go after Pence, should the Bucs have matched Philly’s offer of their 2 best prospects not named Brown with say Taillon and Marte? Minny wasn’t trading Kubel. Considering they gave nothing of signifigance for either guy I think the moves were pretty solid. Standing pat with Diaz and Overbay would have been far worse than what they did at the deadline.
“The Pirates probably weren’t going to make the playoffs even if they made an impact move…”
So the Pirates weren’t going to make the playoffs even if they made an impact move, yet they are the team that needed to make an impact move the most? I don’t follow your logic.
Very informative article.. thx..
Correct me if I’m wrong but if Pena gets hot and hits 30+ HRs (a very real possibility at this rate) and drives in 80 runs with a .350 OPB he could be classified as a type A FA and net you to 1st round picks, and because he’s Carlos Pena there may be no one who wants to pay that. Given the market that may have been the only issue. If he is a type A then he may have no choice but to work out a team friendly contract with the Cubs next year, and as the Cubs have no 1B prospects in any level of their system, that might not be a bad thing.
As for the others no one wants Soriano, Marmol, or Zambrano. Ramirez was only going to waive his clause to go to a contender of which no team but the White Sox and Angels needs a 3B and neither can take on salary.
Really Marshall and Byrd were the only guys I could see getting you much of anything and I was expecting them to go. Other than that though it looks like the Cubs really didn’t have anything anyone else wanted.
I agree that the Pirates should have done more, and from all indications they did try. But Derrek Lee’s glove (2.3 UZR) alone is a significant improvement over Overbay (-5.6 UZR), as is Ludwick’s power (11 HR in 2011) compared to Diaz (0 HR in 2011).
I suppose congrats are in order to Ryan Ludwick, who just picked up his first extra-base hit last night in his 10th game as a Pirate. :facepalm:
Just to echo some of the sentiments, for a trade to work, it has to be a clear upgrade. Otherwise, there isn’t much reason to give up a prospect and possibly upset team balance. I mean, typically, when you add someone, someone else has to go. With AZ at SS, and especially LAA at 1B, how much more production are you looking at?
So the Reds doing nothing (except dumping Gomes to prevent Dusty playing him against RHP’s) was the correct non-move? And every team that needs a firstbaseman passing on Yonder Alonso makes sense?