And of course you need to worry about an outlier in the other direction.

]]>I love arguments that start out with totally unsupported drastic assumptions that make any cogent argument impossible.

Nice work.

]]>As opposed to Cameron, who appears to have just made up his odds.

]]>Let’s just assume that a fully rested Verlander goes 8 innings, while any other starter as well as a short rested Verlander goes 5 innings per game.

For the two games in question (4 and 7) you have in one case:

A)

8 innings Verlander

5 innings random starter

5 innings bullpen

in the other case:

B)

10 innings Verlander

8 innings bullpen

So in case B you get 2 more innings out of Verlander than you would in case A. But you would also need 3 more innings from your the bullpen. Especially for the tigers that’s not going to be pretty.

I know those numbers are kind of random. But the result is always the same. Starting Verlander two times on short rest means more innings from the Tigers bullpen. More precisely: middle relievers (yuck!)

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