Diamondbacks Demote Trevor Bauer
Following Trevor Bauer‘s Tuesday start against Cincinnati — three innings, five walks, one hit (a home run) and three earned runs — the Diamondbacks returned their top prospect to the minor leagues. In four starts with Arizona this season, Bauer lasted just 16.1 innings. He struck out 17 but walked 13 and allowed two home runs. The result is an ERA of 6.06, a FIP of 5.15, and a deserved demotion back to Triple-A Reno.
Mike Newman saw Bauer pitch in Double-A and noted his well-documented tendency to throw his fastball up in the strike zone. Newman talked to a scout who mentioned this might be a problem:
Bauer will have outings where he looks like a young Kerry Wood and strikes out 15, but he’ll also be chased in the second on occasion as well. He just kind of throws the fastball up there. It also makes me wonder how he’ll fare a second time through the league.
Newman said he wasn’t swayed by seeing Bauer work up in the zone; apparently, his scout contact wasn’t either. And at least on the point of Bauer being chased early, they’ve been right — his starts have lasted 4, 3.1, 6 and 3 innings respectively. The problem hasn’t been leaving the fastball up in the zone, though. Instead, Bauer has routinely elevated above and beyond the strike zone. Observe, his fastballs in his four major league starts:
The pitches highlighted in green resulted in hits, with the stars representing run-scoring hits (including both home runs). Bauer threw plenty of pitches in the higher part of the strike zone and allowed a few hits there, but hitters had equal success when he tried to attack the lower part of the zone as well. His control over the horizontal part of the plate has been fine — nearly all of his pitches fall within half a foot of the strike zone horizontally.
Instead, the problem is an inability to keep the ball below the batters elbows, much less down in the strike zone. Bauer threw 69 fastballs above three feet out of 167 total. Of those 69, 37 were balls, four were called strikes and just three went for swinging strikes. Of the 98 fastballs he threw below three feet, he drew 32 called strikes against 25 balls.
Bauer made a fascinating tweet about his pitching style after his May 1st start at Double-A in which he allowed eight hits and five runs in 5.2 innings:
Closing thoughts on the night. I hate ground balls. The more strikeouts and fly balls I get the better
— Trevor Bauer (@BauerOutage) May 2, 2012
Bauer had no trouble getting strikeouts on the major league level, and he allowed more balls in the air (24) than ground balls (20). Was he trying too hard to elevate and keep the ball off the ground in his time in Arizona this season? Either way, Bauer will need to find a way to execute his game plan while still keeping the ball at a reasonable height as it crosses home plate.
#imprisontrevorbauer
Yes!
Haha, very niceeeee. Keith Law even agrees.
That tweet is insane. By preferring FBs to GBs, isn’t he saying he’d rather have a shot at a no-hitter than a shutout? I hope that’s just the arrogance of youth.
It’s not insane if executed properly. All else equal, GB’s are clearly superior to FB’s, but those aren’t the only things that are translated to when pitching up/bottom in the zone. As hard as he may throw, flat fastballs like Bauer’s get squared up when it’s thigh high, so for a pitcher like him, it may be more beneficial to blow hitters away with fastballs up.
I think Trevor Bauer is not as smart as Trevor Bauer thinks Trevor Bauer is.
In this tweet, he didn’t say he hated pitching down in the zone, he said he hated getting GBs.
Bauer’s fastball is anything but flat.
Why are GB’s clearly superior to FB’s? More hits are given up on ground balls. Yes, a home run is a flyball. However the better fly ball pitchers don’t give up any more home runs than ground ball pitchers. The fact of the matter is that ground ball pitchers also give up home runs.
The vast majority of the greatest pitchers in the game, as per the HOF, tended toward fly ball pitchers, or were neutral at best. There are only about three who were extreme gound ball pitchers.
you wouldn’t rather have a no-hitter than a measly shutout?
You can lose a game where you throw a no-hitter, but you can’t lose a game where you toss a shutout…just saying
Maybe he had shitty infield defense behind him in the minors. If every ball on the ground resulted in an error or base hit, I’d also prefer to take my chances with a fly ball. I don’t follow AZ so I don’t know if this is the case.
Can’t comment on Reno or Mobile, but the infield in Arizona seems league average or better using I-TEST +/-
Hitters are taught to hit the ball on the ground.
Pitchers are taught to get ground balls.
Something has to give. They can’t both be right.
This definitely looks like a maturity issue for Bauer. Instead of challenging hitters, he consistently (some would say stubbornly) tried to get hitters to chase curveballs, which he could not see, to get over for a strike. Hitters were then able to sit dead red and make solid contact.
I think it was wise the D-Backs sent him down. The kid needs seasoning and has to develop an approach that makes sense at the big league level.
Completely agree. He was plain frustrating to watch. In the Reds game, he only really had a handle on his fastball and change, but continued to shake off Montero and throw lawn dart curves. After walking two in the first, he easily could have said ” hey, I don’t have the curve/slider today, lets just stick fastball/change” and made it 6 innings, but instead he bounce four more pitches in front of the plate….
Besides this noted problem, I thought his biggest problems were the hanging changeups in the middle of the strike zone. You can’t leave high changeups that do nothing in the zone unless you want to give up homers.
How can he hate ground balls? They’re so democratic!
Your name may be more apropos than you think. Bauer’s insistence on pitching up in the zone was at the heart of his blowup with Miguel Montero; Bauer repeatedly shook Montero off because he wanted to pitch up in the zone rather than pitching to Montero’s book on the pitcher.
Some quotes from this article:
“I throw completely different in the sense that I don’t try to throw to hitters’ weaknesses, I throw to my strengths.”
“Ninety-five percent of the hard-hit balls are balls in the bottom of the strike zone.”
“When I’m executing, throwing fastballs at the top of the zone, I have never been hit consistently.”
Remember that Crash also warned Nuke that big league hitters were going to light him up for a while, and he told Nuke to stay cocky and arrogant. Seems appropriate for the Bauer situation.
I’m not even sure I buy that Trevor Bauer had no trouble getting strikeouts at the MLB level or that he won’t have issues there going forward. His swinging strike rate was an abysmal 6.5% compared to the 8.9% league average (only 7 of the 100 qualified pitchers are worse). One of Bauer’s big problems is his whole pitch tunnelling theory. I see why it makes sense in theory and it clearly worked wonders against NCAA and MiLB hitters, but MLB hitters aren’t having any trouble distinguishing the fastball from the curve quickly and thus aren’t chasing the fastball up and out of the zone or the curve in the dirt like minor leaguers did. He’s going to need to adjust his entire pitching philosophy to actually succeed at this level. i just hope he is humble enough to realize that.
Almost forgot, I think the article probably should have noted the horizontal distribution of his pitches. Very few of them appear to be on either of the two corners. You can’t catch that much of the plate against MLB hitters, no matter how good your stuff is, and expect to be successful.
Of course. 4 starts where most pitchers have extremely high nerves is enough to know pitch tunneling doesn’t work. Yeah, it couldn’t possibly be tipping off a pitch, didn’t have feel for the curve for those games, or anything else. Why aren’t you a pro scout by the way? So many people have bias against this kid. Why can’t you realize this kid has UNDISPUTED talent. But obviously as being the first scout to hate his curveball, you know better. Take your bias elsewhere.
Pitch tunnelling only works if the hitters have issues discerning the curve from a fastball. I know this might sound kind of crazy, but MLB hitters tend to be better at discerning curves quickly than NCAA or MiLB hitters. I’m not saying it’s completely bogus or anything (I mean Trevor Bauer didn’t invent the concept, MLB pitchers have been thinking the same way without naming it for decades now), but when it specifically comes the way he tries to use it with his fastball-curveball combo, I think the concept is very flawed.
Also, I never said there was something wrong with his curve or that it was a bad pitch. That’s you reading something into my comment that clearly isn’t there. My issue isn’t the curve, but how he is trying to use it. He is trying to pitch off of it way too much. I think he’s far better served pitching off his change and the “reverse slider” (I’m honestly not sure the pitch I’m thinking of is the same as the one he describes, but it comes in at 85-86 with a ton of run on it) coupled with the fastball than the curve and fastball.
Seriously, I think you’re probably letting your love for Trevor Bauer (or perhaps what he represents) affect your judgement here. In no way am I saying he’s a bad pitcher or a bust or anything of the sort. I just think he’s destined to be a different type of pitcher than what he’s shown up to this point. I’ve said it before, but his raw stuff reminds a lot more of Maddux than a power pitcher who gets a lot of Ks. I think he could be a great pitcher if he can get better at hitting his spots and learns the value of the low and away pitch (while not giving up on keeping hitters honest by busting them up and in from time to time).
How can you tell hitters are having trouble discerning the fastball vs curveball? You don’t know if hitters are picking up pitch usage on certain counts or situations, tipping the pitch, or if his curveball wasn’t at its best for 4 starts, or if the hitters were just doing their job. Its 4 starts. There is basically nothing you can tell from 4 starts. I think Bauer has a good chance to be great at some point because he has good velo, good curveball although you apparently know hitters can pick it up well even, and a change and reverse slider or whatever pitch it is with potential.
He should ask himself if he knows where the h3ll the ball is going and work on his command. Of which he has none.
Trevor Bauer should never have been promoted to the majors in the first place. It’s wholly unsurprising to see him knocked off the roster as well. He’s never posted a BB/9 under 4.00, and trended worse the higher he went (i.e. the better quality hitters he faced). By that measure alone, he _can’t_ succeed at the major league level. His HR/9 looks to be settling around 1 as well. Pitching up in the zone is all very well—but the hitters who connect get their say on whether some of those hits go over the wall. I’m also with the scout who expressed concern regarding the second time around the league. Fact is, hitters should just wait for Bauer to pitch himself behind in the count and look for a fat pitch up; until Bauer stops giving them such a totally obvious sequence.
I’m not saying that Bauer doesn’t have serious talent. His K rates are desirable for sure. Effective pitching isn’t just about Ks. It sounds like Bauer still doesn’t ‘get’ that, but experience will teach him so even if he chooses to tune out his coaching staffs. I’d expected him to last about 5 a start, walk about that many, and give up 4+ runs. Turns out I was optimistic . . . . I could definitely see him succeed as a high K flyball pitcher, but not with his walk rates. Fact is, Trevor Bauer needs to see the pitching part of the game as a whole, not just beating the batter on a pitch by pitch basis. The D-backs FO didn’t really assess the situation with Bauer at all well unless their goal was to _show_ him he couldn’t succeed without growing his command and mental side of the game which I doubt. I’ll also say that an extreme flyball pitcher with bad command is a terrible option pitching in the Phoenix Flyaway Bowl.
Best of luck to Trevor Bauer. But don’t be surprised it it takes him a couple of years to adapt what he can do to what he has to do to succeed.
This I can get behind. Bauer’s outlook may very well be holding him back right now.
#FreeTylerSkaggs
I just don’t see how his strategy can work at places like Great American Ballpark, Coors, Yankee Stadium (I know not an NL park), Citizens Bank, etc.
You WANT to pitch in the upper portion of the strikezone and you WANT flyballs in those ballparks?
That pitching up in the zone stuff might work in Reno but most big league hitters can recognize and lay off of most of his high fastballs. You have to change the eye level. Problem with him was he couldn’t throw any of his breaking pitches for strikes so he HAD to throw a fastball.
I can understand his hatred of ground balls to a certain extent. Granted I never pitched at a professional level, but I always felt that getting a fly ball put less things at risk. On a ground ball, a player has to field it, make a good throw, and another player has to catch it. On a fly ball, that whole process is cut to a player has to catch it. Perhaps he’s just a control freak (granted the walk rate suggests otherwise) and he wants to have as many things under his control as possible during a game.
I saw him pitch in Double-A, and while he had control issues that game (I think he walked 5 or 6), no one really squared a ball up against him all night. Big league hitters will square up a few more balls for sure, but the kid has filthy stuff. Let’s remember that he was pitching in college last season. His college teammate is struggling (compared to Bauer) in Double-A right now, not struggling to get out big leaguers.
” On a ground ball, a player has to field it, make a good throw, and another player has to catch it.”
That is not something that should go into an MLB starter’s thought process.
Neither should throwing an offspeed pitch in the dirt with a man on third, but it does.
Sounds like a dopey kid, but I’m sure he’ll figure it out eventually.
Little league, Pony league, high school, maybe even college you get guys out with the good fastball. The kid just needs to learn how to pitch, MLB players can hit the fastball.
Anyone surprised a rookie pitcher still has a lot to learn?
Some CAN pitch up in the zone, provided the pitcher can also pitch down in the zone. Cliff Lee and Ted Lilly do- I’m sure there are others.
Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, and Jered Weaver are all very successful flyball pitchers who tend to pitch up in the zone with a riding, abiding fastball to go along with a big breaking ball.
Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke, and David Price are all very successful groundball pitchers who tend to pitch down in the zone with a sinking fastball to go along with a tight breaking ball.
There are many ways to skin this cat. Ultimately I think you find out what your fastball does and where you can command it best and build your repertoire around that.
Let the kid alone. Its early in his career. I ( a Cubs fan) was in
Atlanta on business, when the Braves had just signed Greg
Maddux away from the Cubs. Maddux started the game and
promptly gave up a homer to Pokey Reese in the first inning
(first pitch). Reds batted around and scored 3 or 4 runs in
the first. I was astonished! He settled down, went on to
pitch a decent game, and had a Hall of Fame career! Its
good to get knocked down a few notches. The point is,
will he get back up and make adjustments?
I’m not sure your memory of what happened is all that great. Pokey Reese didn’t even make his MLB debut until Maddux had been with the Braves for 5 years, having already won 3 Cy Young’s for them.
There is a lot Bauer could learn from how Maddux pitched though. Bauer is unlikely to ever have that sort of control or command, but his style of moving the ball around and keeping hitters guessing is what Bauer should be shooting for.
Every pitcher should, but he does have good stuff that will allow him more mistakes than a guy like Maddux. Maddux never had a 70 curve nor a fastball that can reach 98 (although I belive he topped out at 96 in the bigs). Also, Maddux never had the same deception that Bauer gets. Bauer won’t ever have Maddux’s control/command, but to say a pitcher has to pitch like Maddux to succeed is ridiculous for a guy with his stuff. I trust scouts over your opinion of 4 MLB starts.