When it comes to forecasting players, do fans know more about their own team than other teams?
Randy Winn showed the biggest gap in terms of forecasted playing time. The Yankee fans had him down for 96 games, while the non-Yanks fan had him down for 110. (In my processing, where I added additional filters, it was 89 and 119.) And if we look at the Yankee fans at my site, they had him for 89 games. So far, he’s played in 26 out of 40 games, a rate of 105 games per season. He’s pretty much in the middle of the two at this point, though a shade close to the non-Fans.
The next biggest gap was Mike Fontenot of the Cubs, with a Cub forecast of 100 games and non-Cub of 125 games (or 105, 129 using my numbers). He’s played 32 games out of 41, or a rate of 126 games. Non-Cub fans nailed this one. The Cub fans at my site had him at 115 games.
Then there’s Coco Crisp, who has yet to play a game. Let’s forget him.
Jayson Nix of the White Sox: 81 v 98. Actual 13 of 39. Both are bad, but the Sox-fans are closer.
On the flip side are those team fans more enthused about players. Nate Schierholtz was 131 for Giants fans and 116 for non-Giants fans. Actual: 37 of 39. Giants fans nailed it.
At this point, it’s hard to say what’s the best estimate. Are the team fans closer to their teams, or are they too close (eye of the storm) to see well? Or, do we simply do the time-tested tradition of splitting the difference between the two? We’ll check back at the end of the year.