Dodgers Give Juan Uribe Three Years
At this point last winter Juan Uribe was still more than a month away from signing. The year before he was two months away from signing a minor league deal. This year he has found a deal before the calendar flips to December. The Dodgers have signed him to a three-year, $21 million contract, stealing him away from the division-rival Giants. On the surface that represents a nice three-win swing between the two teams, but there is plenty more that goes into this deal.
Uribe will likely take over at second base, displacing Ryan Theriot. The Dodgers’ desire to upgrade over Theriot is understandable. He’s never been much at the plate, as evidenced by his career .319 wOBA. Defense and versatility are what have kept him in a starting role for the Cubs, and then Dodgers, for the last four seasons. Uribe provides that same level of versatility, but anecdotally carries a heavier stick. To that point, his career ISO is more than 100 points higher than Theriot’s. But that misses one important point:
Ryan Theriot’s career wOBA is higher than Juan Uribe’s.
It’s not by much — a mere .007 — but it’s there. Theriot obviously carries most of his offensive value in OBP, where he has produced a career mark nearly 50 points higher than Uribe. This evens out when we weigh them on the same scale, wOBA, rather than OPS, which weighs power more heavily. If we look only at the last three seasons we can see that Uribe is only slightly better than Theriot, by a measure of 0.8 WAR. If they show a similar discrepancy during the next three seasons, it’s tough to argue that Uribe is worth that $7 million per season when compared to Theriot.
Since we learned of the deal I’ve heard the sentiment that the Dodgers will non-tender Theriot as a result of the Uribe signing. This would be foolish. Theriot is entering his second year of arbitration, after having lost his first hearing last winter. He made $2.6 million, and after a poor season he can’t expect much of a raise — he might not even get the $3.4 million that he sought last winter. If he rebounds to produce somewhere between his 2.3 WAR from 2009 and his 3.1 WAR from 2008, he can be a valuable player for the Dodgers, even if it’s not in a full-time role.
Why would the Dodgers benefit by having two utility players on the roster? Their infield is fragile. Rafael Furcal presents a perpetual injury risk. Of the 810 games the Dodgers have played during his five years with the team, he has played in just 580. We also heard rumblings that the Dodgers wanted an insurance option at third base after Casey Blake, 37 next year, dropped off in 2010. Having both Uribe and Theriot allows the Dodgers to sub an above-replacement player into the lineup. Had they settled for just Theriot and a regular utility guy, they’d be in a bind should Furcal or Blake become unable to play.
While Uribe has justified more than a $7 million salary with his play in the last two years, it’s tougher to excuse the three years the Dodgers gave him. Uribe has been in the league 10 years, so we have a decent read on him. While the last two years might appear impressive, they completely ignore the years prior. For four straight seasons, between 2005 and 2008, Uribe’s wOBA was .304 or lower. Even with 50 extra base hits in 2010 it was just .322. It’s not a given that he’ll start to decline in his age-32 through -34 seasons, but there’s little chance we’ll see him improve. Maybe he can give the Dodgers one above-average year at the plate, but it’s tough to wish for more.
If the Dodgers made this move with an eye on carrying four infielders to help compensate for weaknesses among their current crop, this deal might work out. They certainly overpaid in years, but in 2011 they’ll be fine. If the move is simply to replace Theriot with Uribe, it is a mistake. Unless the team thinks that there’s no way that Theriot can recover (and no way that Uribe can fall off a cliff again), then the upgrade is just not worth the money and time commitment. Theriot will cost less than half of what Uribe makes, and with just a one-year commitment. That sounds like a much better move than committing three years to a player who hasn’t produced that many above-average years in his 10-year career.
I predicted 3 years at 8 million
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/contract-crowdsourcing-juan-uribe/
I should have known that it would have been Ned.
[Facepalm]
I think this move is pretty meh for the Dodgers — but what it DOES do is hurt the Giants. They have literally no viable in-house options, there are no better FA options, AND they don’t really have the excess talent to trade (especially since the scarcity of SS on the FA market is going to make trade prices pretty high).
And when I say NO viable in-house options – I mean NONE. They don’t even have anyone in the minors who would be an acceptable back up SS. Unless you think some combination of Ryan Rohlinger, Mike Fontenot and some guys who can field and hit like pitchers constitutes an “option”.
They don’t? They have Burriss in the minors, and Adrianza and Crawford set to appear, hopefully, in 2012. I would say Burriss at least qualifies as an acceptable backup.
I really don’t see this as a big loss for the Giants. They’ll be improved with a full season of Ross at RF instead of a combination of 4th outfielders, a full season of Posey, Belt arriving sometime around May, and DeRosa becoming the super utility player.
Burriss has a career .679 OPS. In the minors.
His 2010 at Fresno translates to a .245/.282/.289 line.
And no, I don’t think that qualifies as an acceptable backup. Especially since he’s primarily a 2B and overmatched at SS.
I do agree that things might not be so bad in 2012. But for 2011 it looks like they will be lucky to get someone who is > replacement level.
That’s actually the OPS I have in mind when I think about someone backing up the SS position. Especially when the guy the Giants just lost had an OPS in the low .700′s in a career year.
Burriss is a joke and Adrianza won’t be ready in 2012. and you can’t count on anything from DeRosa at this point either.
agree. I think the giants will have to overpay or get poor production at SS. definitely hurt them
mets will gladly take lincecum/cain off your hands ;)
For a mere $120M over 5 years, the Giants can have Derek Jeter.
Shhh… don’t Brian Sabean any ideas.
This entire premise bashing the deal is contingent on Theriot bouncing back. given that he saw hits to his defense, pwoer, and walk rate, and was worth a whopping 0 WAR last year, I think the Dodgers might be VERY justified in thinking that Theriot offers less than a win moving forward – in which case, if the Dodgers think they can compete, make this a good deal. You can’t compare the career wOBAs – that’s stupid, since Uribe has shown skill-based sustainable upticks in his stats over the last year – specifically ISO and walk rate. You have to give much more weight to the last two seasons, and if you do, the Uribe signing is a clear favorite.
Yup, G’s need a shortstop. In house options are few – Brandon Crawford may be ready in a couple of years, but his bat is truly questionable. Rohlinger is really a 3b, and Fontenot isn’t any more than a backup at the position. Adrianza’s glove is ready, but his bat probably never will be. Let’s get J.J. Hardy from the Brewers for some combination of ML relief and possibly some prospects?
We’ll see what Sabean does, but I bet this contract comes back to look heavy for the Dodgers in a few years.
Seems unlikely they’d get Hardy from the Brewers, seeing as the Twins have him…
Why wouldn’t you ask for the moon as the Twins? Hardy’s cheap (arbitration) and average at a scarce position. Madison Bumgarner? Highway robbery, but what are the Giants going to do.
What do the twins need? Relievers and Outfielders? I think we can safely rule out the latter as coming from the Giants, unless someone in Minnesota has a Aaron Rowand fetish.
I guess you could always trade prospects to the twins… after all, last time that worked out so well.
zenbitz – he’s not that valuable (3.8 WAR over the past two years) and he’s not much of a bargain (probably $6-7 million next year after arbitration). “but what are the Giants going to do”? go after someone else… they’ll get a decent haul for him because there are a number of desperate teams out there, but by “decent haul” I mean a good bullpen arm and maybe a C+ prospect.
“Let’s get J.J. Hardy from the Brewers for some combination of ML relief and possibly some prospects?”
You’re a year too late on that. Might be able to get him from the Twins though.
The Dodgers already have another utility man – one who is superior to Theriot. Jamey Carroll.
Exactly what I was going to say. Carroll gives defense that is just as good with a higher OBP at half the price. The only area Theriot is superior is speed.
Theriot’s speed is questionable. He has a historically terrible success rate. Carroll is pretty fast, but not a risk taker with steals.
While Theriot is faster, he just isn’t smarter. Ask any Cubs fan and they will tell you that he must have taught Matt Kemp how to run the bases.
yeah, this entire article ignores the fact that Jamey Carroll will be their backup/platooned utility infielder next year. I think the chances that Theriot is tendered a contract are close to zero.
Looks like they’ll be after Bartlett…
Or Bill Hall.
or Miguel Tejada. Sounds a like a Sabeanesque pick up to me. Could have a Huffesque year.
Sabeanesque? Absolutely. He loves him some old dudes.
Huffesque, as in producing over 5 WAR? Very unlikely.
To Joe P,
How do you think Theriot would fit as a utility guy for the yanks?
That is a team he might work decently for.
they reportedly have interest in bill hall as well, but his price tag will probably be higher after having a pretty good year.
i was a little disappointed that the Giants dint get uribe on a 2 year deal because he was one of the best utility infielders available (and because im lifelong a giants fan i like the guy as a person and a player)…
but last year proved that they dont need much production at all from the ss position to compete for a a playoff spot, so im not too worried about them finding an adequate (cheaper) replacement
actually.
Giants SSs hit .318/.419 last year, which isn’t a great hitter, but it’s 12% better than league average FOR THE POSITION.
I don’t get .730 OPS SSs with average defense free with my breakfast cereal, do you?
How about just a little effort in editing? If I’m gonna take the time to read this you can take the time to fix the obvious mistakes.
“Uribe will likely take over at second place, displacing Ryan Theriot.”
“they’d be in a bind should Furcal or Bake become unable to play.”
“If the Dodgers made this move with an eye on carrying four infielders to help compensate for weaknesses among their current crop”
I like fangraphs a lot, but clearly none of the writers have ever taken a technical writing class, or even a basic writing class, where you have to review what you have written to see if it makes sense at all. At least have someone else proofread it before submission.
Yeah, the editing is terrible, especially considering the subscription cost… oh, you say it’s free? Oh, well then, never mind.
I also agree that reading this article with it’s grammar problems as well as the sentence formatting issues sometimes makes it hard for me to enjoy it when I read it but that I also like it because of it’s content.
It is somewhat ironic that you would make that comment while using the incorrect “its” in your complaint. Hello, Pot! My name’s Kettle!
That’s some run-on sentence ya got there, kid. Gonna poke somebody’s eye out with that.
Pshh such a liberal arts major thing to say.
Dodgers have been the most active team so far this offseason, and despite the money and length in this contract, they look definitely improved. They still need a power bat in the middle of the lineup to work with Kemp/Ethier. If Uribe is what Colletti considers to be an “impact bat,” their offensive is in serious trouble. On the other hand, if they go out and work some magic and get a cleanup LF, like Carlos Lee, Uribe would fit nicely in the 6th spot of the lineup.
Wasn’t last year pretty horrific for Carlos Lee? I would think if the Dodgers would take him and his contract off their hands, the Astros would let him go for a bag of balls.
Of course, I don’t know that that represents a clear upgrade for the Dodgers in any way shape or form, unless you have inside information that Carlos Lee is guaranteed to rebound.
Considering that Carlos Lee is now playing first base for the Astros, then that might work out for LA. But we’d still have a hole in center or right field…
yet carlos lee might be in for a bounce back and cheap due to the horrible walk year and age. for the right price in dollars and especially years, he might be a good signing. and who knows, maybe he will be next year’s aubrey huff!
side note: have dodgers been more active than the tigers this off-season so far?
As a Giants fan, I’d love seeing Carlos Lee in LF.. worst defensive OF ever?
Carlos Lee has an NTC and has said he will not leave Houston.
Why are you people panning this deal? Two consecutive years of league average production more than pays for Uribe’s contract in this market. His glove is good enough at 2B to compensate for -5 -10 at the plate. He’s a plus defender, for pete’s sake.
Agreed. Did this guy not average 3 WAR over the last 2 years? Even if he falls to the 2-2.5 range, $7 mill is still a minor bargain, no?
The question posed here isn’t “is Uribe likely to be worth $7 million?” or “is Uribe likely to be a 2-2.5 WAR player?”. Instead, the question is “Is Uribe a 2-2.5 WAR upgrade over Theriot?”. It’s a good question, and worthy of debate.
I understand that, and it is a very valid debate. But some of the comments on here saying that Uribe is being overpaid, from the Dodgers perspective he probably is (although Theriot was pretty terrible this year), but in terms of market value, he probably got exactly what he should have on a 3 year deal. I was hoping the Jays would look at him on a 2 year deal to play 3B, which I assumed would be in the $15 mill range.
I think the biggest issue is that prior to 2009/2010 he combined for 1.7 WAR over three seasons. Yes, it’s possible that Uribe has changed his approach or something, but you can’t just ignore 2006-2008. That being said, I don’t think it’s as bad as my initial reaction to it, but I still think the Dodgers probably don’t get their money’s worth.
This makes the Barmes deal look a litle better for the Astros. There aren’t many options out there for shortstops, and now we have the Dodgers overpaying for old dudes.
“now we have the Dodgers overpaying for old dudes.”
As though that never happened before!
…especially old, former giants
If Uribe can play at a 3 WAR pace over the next 3 years its a terrific signing. Especially considering that “Bake” is in his contract year. Uribe can take over 3B in 2012 and hopefully by then Gordon and DeJesus are ready to man the middle infield. I dont really consider Uribe a “utility” infielder if he can produce 3 WAR. He is a versitile starter at 3 different positions. I really feel that he was signed because of his versitileness (SP?… versatility?) and because he can occasionally change the game with his bat. Theriot has neither of these qualities.
I don’t think he’ll keep the pace.
It ALSO adds the player to your team while removing it from your rival.
Anyone else think the Dodgers would be pretty damn interesting if they traded for Josh Willingham and plugged him into LF? The cost wouldn’t (or shouldn’t) be prohibitive, as David Dejesus, a younger player earning less money in the final year of his indentured servitude, was traded for a 5th starter and a pedestrian prospect.
Willingham-Kemp-Ethier is a pretty solid outfield, maybe worth 11 WAR if Kemp gets his head out of his ass.
Time to outsmart colletti. Move Posey to shortstop, and have Pablo Catch. Huff can play third, and either Belt or Ishikawa can play first. Certainly there would be less outrage if Pablo put up last years numbers as a catcher. Perhaps moving back to ss could extend Posey’s career, at least until we make the move to obtain the Rockies ss when he is a free agent, if we can afford him. Tulo at ss for the giants would look nice. Oh yea! What is Renteria doing? He should be good for at least 250 AB’s.
If Freddie Sanchez and Mark Derosa (elderly) are worth 6 million a year for 2 years, I guess a younger guy like Uribe with more power could be worth 7 million a year, and at the end of 3 years he will still be younger than Derosa is now, and at least at the moment Uribe has a solid wrist or two.
Posey is adamant on staying a catcher.
Which is fine by me. He’ll be the Mauer of the NL.
I’ve heard the Mets are shopping Reyes, but that would definitely involve giving up Bumgarner or Belt, which is out of the question.
Jeter would involve caving to his ego and overpaying, so no.
So I vote Scutaro or Bartlett.
Marco… Scutaro!
Didn’t Uribe get in trouble a few years ago for shooting somebody who touched his car in the Domincan Republic? Nice guy!
Wonder how this impacts Jeter. He’s already been offered double what Uribe got. Is he really serious in thinking he’s 3-4x more valuable? Those intangibles must be amazing!
Amazing is a Mets term.
Jeter’s intangibles are “real and they are spectacular.”
Carroll gives defence that is just as excellent with a higher OBP at half the price.
but i don not think that Theriot would fit as a utility guy for the yanks.
http://www.pakhot.com
Wonder how this impacts Jeter, I don’t think he’ll keep the pace.
http://freedesktop-wallpaper.com
as i am thinking they will be after Bartlett.